Understanding the materiality of biodiversity tipping points and using it to enable positive action in the boardroom. (Ref:4654)

Ecosystems are complex adaptive systems, which can sometimes exhibit tipping points where a small change in forcing causes an abrupt change in the state of the system that is hard to reverse. The risk of tipping points that are detrimental to biodiversity and the benefits we derive from it is escalating with global change. This risk includes both large-scale tipping points e.g. dieback of coral reefs or the Amazon rainforest, and smaller-scale tipping points e.g. abrupt land degradation, or loss of fish stocks. Where ecosystems are already degraded there are opportunities for positive tipping points of abrupt biodiversity gain. Businesses and finance are beginning to grapple with the financial materiality of biodiversity, but they are doing so in a linear framework that has yet to incorporate the potential for tipping point changes. This PhD project will develop a framework to assess the materiality of biodiversity tipping points, e.g. in terms of the financial value of the industries dependent on the corresponding ecosystems. It will explore how the tipping point qualities of abruptness, self-propelling change and irreversibility alter the assessment of materiality (both of financial risks and opportunities). The student will apply the framework to case studies of negative tipping points, e.g. Amazon rainforest dieback, and opportunities for positive tipping points, e.g. tropical forest regeneration. The aim is twofold: to inform tools being used to assess associated financial risks and opportunities, and to explore the potential to enable positive action in the boardroom. For the latter, a series of evidence-based tipping points narratives will be developed, and their effectiveness tested. The PhD will be transdisciplinary - spanning relevant disciplines and involving action-oriented co-production of knowledge with J.O. Hambro capital management.