NSFGEO-NERC Earthquake nucleation versus episodic slow slip: what controls the mode of fault slip?

Earthquakes, produced by rapid slip on faults, account for the majority of deaths from a range of natural disasters which amounts to about 60,000 people a year worldwide - around 90 percent of which occur in developing countries. Slip can occur in three ways on faults. These are (1) earthquake slip; (2) stable fault creep driven by plate tectonic loading rates; and (3) episodic slow slip events, where fault slip spontaneously accelerates but never reaches earthquake slip speeds. Episodic slow slip events can release the same amount of energy as earthquakes but over days to weeks rather than seconds to minutes. They most commonly occur in certain regions of subduction zones and have been linked to elevated pore pressures. These three modes of fault slip are vital to understand, as episodic slow slip and fault creep relieve stress build up and reduce seismic hazard, yet also transfer stress from one part of the fault to another, ultimately affecting the nucleation of destructive earthquakes.

In this project, we will provide physical constraints from combined experiments and numerical modelling to determine the controlling factors leading to stable fault creep, episodic slow slip, or earthquakes. As yet, it is not understood what puts the brakes on some instabilities creating slow fault slip yet allows others to accelerate to rapid slip speeds that cause earthquakes. A transition of some sort from unstable frictional sliding (typically viewed as leading to earthquakes) to stable frictional sliding (typically viewed as leading to fault creep) while the sliding velocity is increasing must promote sustained slow slip on faults. The nature of this stability transition is widely debated and the range of conditions under which it may occur are ill defined. We will investigate the key hypotheses proposed to explain such stability transition and the resulting slow slip events, which include (1) evolution in friction properties related to very slow slip rates at elevated temperatures, (2) the role of pore fluid pressure on stability transitions, where small increases in pore volume of the granular shearing material in the fault produces a large decrease in pore pressure resulting in increase in the shear resistance (dilatant strengthening), and (3) spatial variation in fault properties and conditions leading to a situation where nucleation of an earthquake can occur but is limited by adjacent regions with stable frictional properties.

The work will involve integrated laboratory experiments and numerical modelling. Controlled lab experiments will measure the evolution of fault friction under previously unexplored temperature, pore fluid pressure, and slip rate conditions relevant to natural faults. We will quantify the evolution of frictional properties from very slow, tectonic fault slip rates of millimetres per year, to those through the episodic slow slip range of millimetres per day, and into the slip rates of meters per second where earthquakes occur. Fluid pressure changes promoted by compaction and dilation during slip will also be characterized. Numerical modelling of the experiments at the laboratory scale will help to ensure that the coupled physical mechanisms involved are understood and captured in our mathematical descriptions. The large-scale behaviour of faults with the properties defined by the experiments will be explored by numerical modelling at the scale of natural faults. The numerical modelling will relate the experimental findings to field observations of episodic slow slip and earthquake nucleation and investigate the role of spatial variations in fault properties on the occurrence of episodic slow slip events vs. earthquakes. A key deliverable for this work would be identification of the range of fault conditions and physical mechanisms under which episodic slow slip, fault creep, or earthquakes can occur, leading ultimately to improved seismic hazard forecasting.