Make Time Count Today - Reducing criminal reoffending on probation through data analytics, predictive behaviour recognition and optimised interventions

**Problem Addressed**

Crime costs UK economy over £58bn pa, with 1.2mn people convicted annually. Of these, 87% have previous convictions, 60% of released prisoners and 30% on probation reoffend within 12 months.

Reoffending is not inevitable. Evidence from countries such as Norway and Germany have shown that targeted alternatives such as Out of Court Disposal orders _(_OOCD) and active engagement in Initial Sentence Plans (ISPs) is highly effective at reducing these reoffending rates (-20% reoffending rate vs 60%).

Despite being part of the Criminal Justice systems arsenal, budget cuts have increased crime rates by 24% and meant that individuals for are 9x likely to be resent to court, rather than be prescribed these more effective alternatives.

**Innovation**

Utilising AI, Machine Learning (ML) and user-centric ecosystem design, the goal of the system to more frequently engage with user, make them feel supported and prevent downward spirals to reoffending through targeted, proactive inter_v_entions.

The project has been devised with and will be delivered in partnership with the Cambridge Centre for Evidenced-Based Policing, part of the University of Cambridge, whose pioneering work on Al, data analytics and Policing has resulted in an algorithm that predict six times as many cases of serious violence as the current UK Government's Offender Assessment System _(_OASys) risk classification model predicted.

**Advancement on Current Approaches**

Building upon this strong evidence base, we intend to develop a highly-innovative platform to help probation and rehabilitation stakeholders to;

1. Identify those individuals on probation that are at the highest risk of reoffending using new machine learning techniques, 6x more accurate than the current OASys system
2. Design and initiate tailored, targeted early interventions -- nudges, check-ins, contact time, support sessions -- via our support ecosystem, to prevent downwards spirals towards reoffending.
3. Facilitate the safe, secure and easy sharing of user information and ISPs between inter-agencies.
4. Reduce the administration and data silos associated with these.

Through proactive management, positive nudges and contact time we aim to reduce reoffending by providing timely support and steer to individuals most at risk of reoffending.

**_Targeted Impacts: Increase the number of touch points; reduce administration; optimise intervention per individual to reduce the risk of reoffending._**