Application of agent based modelling and complex systems to national and regional transport planning

Project ABI3L has constructed a prototype Agent-based model (using complex systems thinking) of the UK freight transport system under the TSB Intelligent Logistics call for funding. ABI3L stands for Agent-Based Intelligent Logistics which is also Innovative and Integrating. The goal of the project has been to develop complex systems models of UK freight and logistics to help to determine the investments and policies that will be needed to move to a low carbon world whilst also delivering economic productivity. At present such policy and investment choices are not supported by tools that can evaluate radical change, including the need to change behaviours, policies and attitudes to freight at both a regional and national level and how the complexity interacts.
The opportunity is to model step changes in logistics networks, operating practices, regulatory control and fiscal measures to better inform both policy makers and investors on the real value of the options available, providing insights into how the total system can be improved, covering modal shift, behavioural and economic responses to policies and the requirement for capacity at key points in the network. Fully deployed, the modelling will allow both public sector planners and private sector actors to understand and forecast impacts, reduce risk and focus investment.