Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions and Conventional Forces in Europe During the Cold War
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Politics and International Studies
Abstract
Mutual and Balanced Arms Reductions Negotiations during the Cold War
The military dimension of the Cold War can be generally divided into three different spheres: The strategic nuclear confrontation between the two superpowers and their allies, the military confrontation in Central Europe and the competition for influence in the Third World which involved arms sales, the global projection of military power and various proxy wars
The military confrontation in Central Europe was an important feature of the Cold War which created a sense of conflict and threat that contributed substantially to the tensions between East and West. When the first moves towards détente in Europe were made in the late 1960s, it was apparent that the process would be incomplete if it did not also address the military dimension of East-West relations in Europe. The impetus for talks on conventional force reductions also came from domestic political pressure in the United States, Britain and Germany to reduce forces despite the perceived imbalance of force levels favouring the Eastern side.
Despite the centrality of this issue to East-West relations and arms control during the Cold War, the talks on 'mutual and balanced force reductions' have been largely ignored by Cold War historians. The existing literature dates mostly from the 1980s or before and is based on secondary sources from the strategic studies literature and then available official documents. It largely consists of accounts of the details of the talks available in open sources without much analytical import.
New archival materials have become available that allow us to test the conventional interpretation of both NATO and Warsaw Pact policy towards conventional arms reductions in Europe. These include the full range of documents from the United Kingdom, the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. Of particular interest is the full set of documents of the East German delegation to MBFR that has recently become available in the Federal Archives in Freiburg. These include all of the internal materials, protocols of meetings held, internal briefings to the East German leadership and a host of Soviet documents. In addition to those files, the East German military document collections in the Federal Archives also include extensive materials about military policy, the perception of NATO policy and strategy and the analysis of Warsaw Pact military exercises.
This path-breaking research project is the first effort to reconstruct the history of the talks on mutual force reductions in Europe on the basis of primary documents from all of the main participating countries. It is designed to produce a major contribution to Cold War History and will be of interest to experts in strategic studies, international security and military history.
The military dimension of the Cold War can be generally divided into three different spheres: The strategic nuclear confrontation between the two superpowers and their allies, the military confrontation in Central Europe and the competition for influence in the Third World which involved arms sales, the global projection of military power and various proxy wars
The military confrontation in Central Europe was an important feature of the Cold War which created a sense of conflict and threat that contributed substantially to the tensions between East and West. When the first moves towards détente in Europe were made in the late 1960s, it was apparent that the process would be incomplete if it did not also address the military dimension of East-West relations in Europe. The impetus for talks on conventional force reductions also came from domestic political pressure in the United States, Britain and Germany to reduce forces despite the perceived imbalance of force levels favouring the Eastern side.
Despite the centrality of this issue to East-West relations and arms control during the Cold War, the talks on 'mutual and balanced force reductions' have been largely ignored by Cold War historians. The existing literature dates mostly from the 1980s or before and is based on secondary sources from the strategic studies literature and then available official documents. It largely consists of accounts of the details of the talks available in open sources without much analytical import.
New archival materials have become available that allow us to test the conventional interpretation of both NATO and Warsaw Pact policy towards conventional arms reductions in Europe. These include the full range of documents from the United Kingdom, the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany. Of particular interest is the full set of documents of the East German delegation to MBFR that has recently become available in the Federal Archives in Freiburg. These include all of the internal materials, protocols of meetings held, internal briefings to the East German leadership and a host of Soviet documents. In addition to those files, the East German military document collections in the Federal Archives also include extensive materials about military policy, the perception of NATO policy and strategy and the analysis of Warsaw Pact military exercises.
This path-breaking research project is the first effort to reconstruct the history of the talks on mutual force reductions in Europe on the basis of primary documents from all of the main participating countries. It is designed to produce a major contribution to Cold War History and will be of interest to experts in strategic studies, international security and military history.
Planned Impact
1. Who will benefit?
There are two primary non-academic beneficiaries of the research:
i) The political establishment, including in particular those policymakers and strategic analysts involved arms control and international negotiations.
.
ii) Public figures, opinion formers and NGOs involved in advocacy of international security strategies and international negotiations in relation to arms control and international conflict
2. How will they benefit?
There are crisis regions in the world today that involve situations with some parallels to the Cold War confrontation in Central Europe. The 'stability instability paradox' that was formulated with regard to the threat of conventional war in Europe is now being applied to relations between India and Pakistan. The 'mutual and balanced force reduction' talks involved the development of sophisticated models of confidence-building measures which could find application in contemporary crisis regions such as the Korean peninsula or South Asia.
3. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from the research?
In the United States the primary way whereby the non-academic community interfaces with Cold War research is through the Cold War History Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. The research will be disseminated through the occasional publication series of the Center and the regular public meetings that take place. Likewise results of the research and possible applications will be disseminated through the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Royal United Services Institute with whom the applicant has strong links, as well as Cold War History conferences organised by the German Historical Institute, the Cold War History Project and at various universities (such as King's College London, the LSE and German Military History Research Institute).
There are two primary non-academic beneficiaries of the research:
i) The political establishment, including in particular those policymakers and strategic analysts involved arms control and international negotiations.
.
ii) Public figures, opinion formers and NGOs involved in advocacy of international security strategies and international negotiations in relation to arms control and international conflict
2. How will they benefit?
There are crisis regions in the world today that involve situations with some parallels to the Cold War confrontation in Central Europe. The 'stability instability paradox' that was formulated with regard to the threat of conventional war in Europe is now being applied to relations between India and Pakistan. The 'mutual and balanced force reduction' talks involved the development of sophisticated models of confidence-building measures which could find application in contemporary crisis regions such as the Korean peninsula or South Asia.
3. What will be done to ensure that they benefit from the research?
In the United States the primary way whereby the non-academic community interfaces with Cold War research is through the Cold War History Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC. The research will be disseminated through the occasional publication series of the Center and the regular public meetings that take place. Likewise results of the research and possible applications will be disseminated through the Royal Institute of International Affairs and the Royal United Services Institute with whom the applicant has strong links, as well as Cold War History conferences organised by the German Historical Institute, the Cold War History Project and at various universities (such as King's College London, the LSE and German Military History Research Institute).
People |
ORCID iD |
| Christoph Bluth (Principal Investigator) |
| Description | The output of the research projects provides a full account of the history of talks on 'mutual and balanced force reductions' based on primary literature has now become possible. The reconstruction of the internal deliberations about the negotiations in the key participant states enables scholars to address some of the key questions about the military confrontation in Europe during the Cold War. One is the significance of the conventional military balance and the extent to which Warsaw Pact forces posed a serious threat to the West. NATO planning was based on the concept that any Warsaw Pact attack would be based on the assumption that nuclear weapons would not be used and that the Warsaw Pact would be able to defeat NATO forces using its quantitative advantage in conventional forces, in particular its tank armies. The strategy of flexible response codified the view that preventing escalation to the nuclear level was desirable, but that at some point NATO forces would have no option but to resort to nuclear strikes. The internal documents used in this research show that the military imbalance was less acute than publicly acknowledged and the Western side used a process of modernisation in order to redress the perceived weakness of the NATO force posture without any positive outcome in the negotiations. Another key question of the research relates to the goals of conventional arms control, what the sides believed could be achieved both in terms of political objectives and real reductions in military forces. The Western continued to pursue objectives that were clearly unachievable (unlike strategic nuclear arms control where objectives were modified in line what the Soviet Union was willing to agree to), largely because the main actors on the NATO side (the US and Britain) did not believe the negotiations were really in the interests of NATO (except to diffuse domestic pressure to reduce troops in Europe). Germany gave the talks less priority once the Conference on Security in Europe was under way.The research shows that the US and British governments were primarily concerned to limit the damage that MBFR could do to NATO force posture and insisted on asymmetric reductions. The Eastern side was reluctant to issue data due to internal secrecy within the Warsaw Pact, and the difficulties of defending the existing balance if there was a full and frank disclosure of the numbers of troops. The research shows that the Eastern side was serious about achieving a positive outcome of the negotiations, but one that would preserve the existing military balance at lower levels. This was not acceptable to the West. The talks failed to achieve any result because the dispute over data proved unresolvable and the focus on manpower became less relevant to the security of either side in the 1980s when the talks were overtaken by the "Conventional Forces in Europe" negotiations. |
| Exploitation Route | The details of the research are useful to policymakers and arms control analysts looking for models to apply in contemporary arms control negotiations. |
| Sectors | Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Description | This research focussed on a highly technical aspect of Cold War History. It has implications for a more general understanding of the nature of confrontations arising from the high concentration of military power, such as can be seen on the Korean peninsula and South Asia in a contemporary setting, and the role of arms control and confidence building measures. This has been highlighted in public conversations on broadcast outlets in the United Kingdom and South Korea, in discussions with policymakers in the United Kingdom, the United States, and South Korea. Significant impact in academia: There is a renaissance in the study of the diplomatic and military history of the Cold War due to the new availability of primary sources. This has given rise to joint research programmes with Japanese scholars (Hiroshima City University and associated nationwide networks). The principles discussed in this research are also of particular interest to the military confrontation between India and Pakistan and have given rise to the study of comparative military spending, force deployments and the risks of conflict in the region. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
| Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Nuclear Alliances |
| Organisation | Hitotsubashi University |
| Country | Japan |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Contribution on additional research on the military confrontation in Europe between the Warsaw Pact and NATO in the 1970s with a focus on the implications of the military balance |
| Collaborator Contribution | Toshihiko Aono from Hitotsubashi University is the PI. This an international research project conducted by seven scholars belonging to British and Japanese academic institutions. It intends to achieve two scholarly goals. First, it tries to reexamine the political dynamics within two "nuclear alliances," e.g., the NATO and US-Japanese alliance, in a wider historical context: the systemic shift of international relations from the late 1960s to the early 1970s. Second, with a series of workshops and other forms of scholarly exchanges involving two scholars in the early stages of their academic careers, this project intends to establish a broader academic network among scholars in Japan, UK, and other regions, which could be the basis for future international research projects. |
| Impact | The disciplines involved are international history, international relations, strategic studies. The programme partners conducted a joint conference in Tokyo and are seeking funds for a substantial project. |
| Start Year | 2019 |