The Changing Character of Conflict Platform: Understanding, Tracing and Forecasting Change across Time, Space and Cultures

We will develop the "Changing Character of Conflict (CCC) Platform" that will transform current ways of thinking about conflict in three ways: first, the project will be the first of its kind to produce a comprehensive understanding of how, when and in which direction conflict changes. Second, drawing on this understanding, it will allow tracing and visualising dynamic change over time in five dimensions which shape armed conflict: the actors involved, the methods used, the environments in which conflict is embedded, the resources used to fuel conflict and the impact it has on civilians. Third, it will provide evidence-based guidance to forecast the directions and pace of change in conflict, necessary to adapt security policies to an evolving security landscape. This research will mainly focus on Strand 1 of the PaCCS conflict theme, "New Perspectives on the Changing Character and Mosaic of Conflict". Co-developed with our long-standing partners, the UK Ministry of Defence's Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC), the Turin-based United Nations Staff System College (UNSSC) and the Washington-based New America Foundation, the project will have an enduring impact by revolutionising ineffective policy interventions.

Changes in conflict remain under-researched. Security policies continue to adopt reactive approaches rather than anticipating new scenarios. Existing conflict, peace and stability indices facilitate tracing conflict over time, yet do not explicitly address dynamic change in past, contemporary and future conflict. Based on traditional measures such as battle deaths, most assume a state-centric approach despite the increasingly transnational nature of threats to human security. To disrupt these orthodoxies, we integrate various disciplinary perspectives and methods: archival research (history), multi-year ethnographic fieldwork and expert interviews (development studies/anthropology), analysis of visual representations of conflict (arts), quantitative data analysis (political sciences, economics) and mathematical modelling and software coding (STEM). Two factors make such an innovative and ambitious research approach possible: the project's embedment in the University of Oxford's highly interdisciplinary, independent Changing Character of War Programme and collaboration with top scholars from world-leading institutions such as MIT.

We will conduct ten in-depth qualitative case studies which include accounting for local perceptions and cultural influences captured in visual artwork. We will compare and complement these studies with the analysis of global quantitative data and situate them in the larger historical context since the late middle ages. Based on this we will design an analytical tool to trace and visualise change in conflict for all years since 1945 in the five dimensions, with a particular focus on 1990 onwards, which roughly coincides with the onset of the so-called Information Age. Coupled with new technologies, we will develop a cutting-edge software application to identify the probability of future change in conflict. Even though the application will not capture all of the complexity of conflicts, it will allow time-constrained policymakers utilising detailed research through a heuristic summary tool.

We will ensure the sustainability of the research. As we will identify knowledge gaps in the five dimensions of change across time, space and cultures, our research will proffer novel, interdisciplinary pathways to researching change in other conflicts and carrying out further in-depth studies in each of the dimensions. Similarly, it will be possible to tailor the analytical tool, which will be openly accessible online, and the software application to the newly emerging needs and specific contexts of diverse users. The project will help users prepare themselves for addressing and countering the most pressing security challenges beyond the grant period.

This project will contribute to alleviate human suffering and saving lives by enhancing security policies that are more effective in reducing the harmful impact of armed conflict while increasing human security. Broadly, the beneficiaries of the project are people affected by armed conflict. This includes primarily civilians in war zones. It also refers to populations indirectly affected by conflict such as those in neighbouring countries who face spill over effects, e.g. large influxes of refugees, and those in Europe and elsewhere who are affected by economic and social challenges stemming from migrant crises triggered by devastating conflicts in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.

Specifically, there will be two principal user groups: first, practitioners who work in and on conflict (staff members of international organisations, NGOs, development agencies, think tanks, armed forces and private companies); and second, policymakers, decision makers and analysts who design security policies to address and prevent armed conflict, particularly those in government.

First, the project will change behaviour of practitioners by equipping them with the Changing Character of Conflict (CCC) Tool. Similar to a weather forecast, the CCC Tool will allow understanding change in conflict on a short-term, day-to-day basis. It will serve to analyse change in regional and global dynamics of conflict, and changes in various conflicts within a state. The CCC Tool will enable practitioners to anchor their projects and programmes in evidence of change in a flexible way according to the direction of change. This will help going beyond assumptions made on the basis of lessons learned from past conflicts or from other countries. It will facilitate determining the "shape" of a conflict according to how it changes in the five dimensions and identify risks accordingly (see visual evidence). In contrast to conventional conflict analysis tools used by the UN, OECD, or Development Agencies as well as assessments employed in the Armed Forces, the CCC Tool focuses on strengthening capacity for a more dynamic response to change which affects immediate outcomes rather than lessons learned for next time. It is informed by findings from a variety of methods and disciplines including historical examples and visual artworks, perspectives not normally taken into account for such purposes. Addressing change in conflict over time fills an important gap in the UNSSC's wider training offer for which CCW provides strategic advice.

Second, the project will transform the ways in which policymakers, decision makers and analysts think about conflict by providing them with the Changing Character of Conflict (CCC) Application, a dynamic software application which will build on the CCC Tool. Similar to climate prediction, it will serve to identify long-term trends. The CCC Application will enable decision makers and policymakers to identify the probability of and, to some extent, forecast, future dynamic change in conflict rather than focusing on increase/decrease in violence. Instead of assuming a static view, the CCC Application will allow policymakers to identify the directions of change as well as the conflict dimensions which are changing particularly rapidly. This will lead to better analysis, planning, design and implementation of effective security and defence strategies and policies. Examples include targeting preventive measures on urban areas if it is likely for a conflict to become increasingly urbanised; or adapting communication strategies to a context in which it is likely that the method used in conflict will shift from conventional weapons to manipulation through social media.