FACCE Knowledge Hub: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR): Tasks L3.2, T2.4 and C5.2

Lead Research Organisation: Cranfield University
Department Name: Sch of Energy, Environment and Agrifood

Abstract

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met:

1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.

2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modellers as opposed to integrated models.

3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.

Technical Summary

FACCE MACSUR focuses on modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security. The work is organized in three themes on crop, livestock and trade modeling. The CropM sub-theme will advance crop modelling for improved assessment of climate change impacts on food security, with a work strategy that will stimulate excellent science and support capacity and network building including links to decision makers. The Livestock sub-theme will develop protocols for pasture and livestock model inter-comparison and will provide guidance in selecting models for particular environment/scale, developing guidelines for up-scaling site-based models to larger scales, and evaluating benefits of using model ensembles for assessing uncertainty range in decision-making for Europe. The TradeM sub-theme will promote the enhancement and deployment of economic models, a better integration of crop- and livestock production into them and more insights into adaptation and mitigation measures and strategies.

The partnership consists of 73 partners from 16 countries all over Europe. The overarching challenge is to develop a pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture. To address this the following challenges must be met:

1. Identify and address a range of issues between models in different themes to enable their closer integration including issues of scale and data processing.

2. Train a new generation of scientists to work across models which contribute to greater integration of models. This challenge can be described as focusing on the creation of integrated modelers as opposed to integrated models.

3. Determine the contribution that can be made to reducing uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on European food security by adopting integrated models of crop production, animal production and trade.

Planned Impact

The project aims to improve our understanding of the uncertainties surrounding the ways in which European agriculture will adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is therefore of direct relevance to policy makers and the producers and users of food in the European Union. The project is very high profile and is certain to attract considerable interest from these communities as it progresses. In order to ensure that we able to meet this demand for information we will integrate dissemination within the project. A website is under development and it is intended that stakeholders will be involved in the major events of the project, beginning with the kick-off meeting and concluding with the final conference. Beyond Europe, it is expected that the activities of this project will also contribute to the parallel, global modelling efforts of the AgMIP consortium.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description This award contributed to the overall impact of the associated MACSUR Knowledge Hub, which brought together 300 members from 18 countries and has generated 300 scientific papers, over 500 presentations and 20 workshops and conferences on the topic of modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security.

In the context of this individual award, key findings are:
1) The application of a multi-sectoral integrated assessment modelling platform to competing European landuse sectors (urban, agriculture, forestry and nature conservation) has demonstrated that future landuse at both European and regional case study scales is strongly influenced by both climate and socio-economic change.
2) Improved understanding of early career researchers within the MACSUR network on how to integrate and model irrigated cropping systems in order to model climate impacts on water and energy use in European irrigated agriculture.
3) The first study to model, map and quantify the links between irrigation demand, crop production and energy consumption in Mediterranean irrigated agriculture. For selected key crops (including cereals, vines, vegetables, sunflowers, olive, cotton and citrus) in the region, irrigation accounts for 61 km3 yr-1 of water abstraction. In the context of increasing drought frequency, irrigation modernization would save around 8 km3 of water (but would increase CO2 emissions) whilst shifting from rain-fed to irrigated production to reduce drought risk would potentially increase irrigation demand to 166 km3 yr-1. Sustainable intensification of agriculture in the Mediterranean region in the face of climate change will need efficient irrigation systems that avoid excessive groundwater pumping supported by policies that recognize the trade-offs between saving water, reducing CO2 emissions and intensifying food production.
4) The projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe have been assessed using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n =729) the analysis show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is + 8%. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+ 14%) and more variable compared to central (+ 6%) and southern (+ 5%) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (-11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. There are important implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe
Exploitation Route This work is being taken forward within MACSUR2 (and BB/N00485X/1) and contributing to the integrated modelling within the ongoing IMPRESSIONS project (European Union's Seventh Programme grant agreement No 603416) to further improve the understanding of climate and socio-economic change (in the context of the new IPCC scenario framework) on European landuse and associated sectors. In particular, how the different assumptions regarding trade, food demand, dietary preferences, climate change, technological development etc play out into very different European landuse futures, and the consequences for adaptation and mitigation
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education

URL http://ojs.macsur.eu/index.php/Reports/article/view/D-H3.5.3
 
Description This awarded contributed to the non-academic impacts of the MACSUR FACCE joint programming initiative. MACSUR has contributed to the evolving paradigm shift from considering silo-ed impacts of climate change on individual crops or livestock types, to planning for impacts and adaptive responses from a systems perspective that recognises that climate and socio-economic change act upon farm businesses, regions and economies. This provides an improved basis on which to base decision making to improve the effectiveness of agricultural policy and the economic competitiveness of the agricultural sector in the face of environmental change. In doing, so it has helped achieve the strategic aim of the knowledge hub to create a coordinated and globally visible network of European researchers and research groups, with intra- and interdisciplinary interaction and shared expertise that can contribute to the evidence base needed to support improved economic performance, policy making and quality of rural life. This award has contributed through the improved understanding of regionally and culturally-specific farm-level decision making in response to future change within the three regional MACSUR case studies in Northern Savo (Finland), Mostviertel (Austria) and Oristano (Italy); and to the provision of early career researcher training. MACSUR representatives have interacted with stakeholders and decision makers at national and EU scale to inform the debate around European food security and the water-food-energy nexus. In particular, a workshop directly aimed at policymakers was organised in Brussels (2015) to develop a greater mutual understanding of expectations and capabilities of research in the area of climate change and food security. The recognised need for MACSUR to engage more thoroughly with the stakeholder and policy community has been recognised. This resulted in Holman (PI for this award) collaborating with PIs from Wageningen and WIFO (Austria) in the development of joint OECD conference proposal on "Knowledge exchange in a world of uncertainty and risks: global food security, climate change and challenges for agriculture and agribusiness".
First Year Of Impact 2015
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Education
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Invitation to act as Review Editor in the regional assessment report for Europe and Central Asia of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description ACRP 6th Call
Amount € 247,113 (EUR)
Organisation Climate and Energy Fund; Austrian Climate Research Program 
Sector Public
Country Austria
Start 10/2014 
End 10/2016
 
Description BBSRC Small Grants
Amount £39,427 (GBP)
Funding ID BB/N00485X/1 
Organisation Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2015 
End 06/2017
 
Description Collaboration for OECD CRP bid 
Organisation Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)
Country Austria 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Led joint bid to OECD's Coperative Research Programme for conference/workshop sponsorship
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to proposal preparation
Impact Full proposal to OECD - unfortunately unsuccessful.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration for OECD CRP bid 
Organisation Wageningen University & Research
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Led joint bid to OECD's Coperative Research Programme for conference/workshop sponsorship
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to proposal preparation
Impact Full proposal to OECD - unfortunately unsuccessful.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Invited tutor with CzechGlobe Summer School 
Organisation Justus Liebig University Giessen
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Keynote speaker and seminar group leader within early career and PhD student summer school; co-author on journal manuscript in preparation
Collaborator Contribution Workshop organisation; journal manuscript proposal
Impact Journal paper in press: • Trnka M, Hayes M, Jurecka F, Bartošová L , Anderson M, Brázdil R, Brown J, Camarero JJ, Cudlín P, Dobrovolný P, Itzinger J, Feng S, Finnessey T, Gregoric G, Havlik P, Hain C, Holman I et al (In Press). Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research. Clim Res. Also collaboration has led to involvement in a recently awarded multi-disciplinary project to the European Structural and Investment Funds on "SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions"
Start Year 2014
 
Description Invited tutor with CzechGlobe Summer School 
Organisation University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Department National Drought Mitigation Centre
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Keynote speaker and seminar group leader within early career and PhD student summer school; co-author on journal manuscript in preparation
Collaborator Contribution Workshop organisation; journal manuscript proposal
Impact Journal paper in press: • Trnka M, Hayes M, Jurecka F, Bartošová L , Anderson M, Brázdil R, Brown J, Camarero JJ, Cudlín P, Dobrovolný P, Itzinger J, Feng S, Finnessey T, Gregoric G, Havlik P, Hain C, Holman I et al (In Press). Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research. Clim Res. Also collaboration has led to involvement in a recently awarded multi-disciplinary project to the European Structural and Investment Funds on "SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions"
Start Year 2014
 
Description Invited tutor with CzechGlobe Summer School 
Organisation WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF
Department Landscape Dynamics
Country Switzerland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Keynote speaker and seminar group leader within early career and PhD student summer school; co-author on journal manuscript in preparation
Collaborator Contribution Workshop organisation; journal manuscript proposal
Impact Journal paper in press: • Trnka M, Hayes M, Jurecka F, Bartošová L , Anderson M, Brázdil R, Brown J, Camarero JJ, Cudlín P, Dobrovolný P, Itzinger J, Feng S, Finnessey T, Gregoric G, Havlik P, Hain C, Holman I et al (In Press). Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research. Clim Res. Also collaboration has led to involvement in a recently awarded multi-disciplinary project to the European Structural and Investment Funds on "SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions"
Start Year 2014
 
Description Global Food Security Challenges - European Research approaches: Case studies in MACSUR TradeM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation within the Improved tools, data and models session to the TradeM participants on the results of applying the CLIMSAVE (TradeM+CropM+LiveM) model to the regional case studies

Increased interest in our pan-European modelling and model results
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description International Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation poster presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Two posters on "Simulating optimum spatial land-use allocation in European across future 2050 scenario space" and "Agricultural systems modelling coupled with environmental Life Cycle Assessment" presented to MACSUR LiveM

Increased European awareness of Cranfield's research capabilities in systems modelling and LCA
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description MACSUR Conference presentations (Reading, April 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The three oral presentations and a poster presentation generated substantial discussion and examination of model results

1) Invited to co-convene scientific session within MACSUR2 inception meeting
2) Invited to co-lead an OECD Co-operative Research Programme conference submission on "Knowledge exchange in a world of uncertainty and risks" with new collaborators at Wageningen University (Netherlands) and BOKU (Austria)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description MACSUR mid-term scientific conference 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Oral presentation with the "Regional Pilot and Other Integrated Case Studies" session and poster presentation on predicting the optimum land use at any location for any future scenario to MACSUR participants

Increased awareness of participants of Cranfield modelling capabilities and expertise; and of the importance of integration within climate impacts modelling
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description MACSUR training workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact A 3-day training workshop on Modelling climate impacts on water and energy use in European irrigated agriculture, run at Cranfield University and attracting about 20 students from UK and Europe. Included lectures, computer modelling exercises and field visits to agribusinesses. Outcomes were increased understanding of business issues, and improved technical skills
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015