Modelling economic impact and strategies to increase resilience against tree disease outbreaks

Lead Research Organisation: University of Stirling
Department Name: Computing Science and Mathematics

Abstract

Context
Forests in the United Kingdom are facing increasing pressures from pests and pathogens. An increase in the volume and global scale of trade, coupled with the evolution and adaptation of pests in the context of global change, has led to new diseases and pests appearing in the UK at an increasing rate. Thus, the issue is not so much whether a new epidemic will emerge in the next years, but when and how it will happen. Tree diseases result in economic costs in terms both of losses in timber values and environmental costs such as impacts on forest landscapes. However, measures to reduce the likelihood of occurrence or speed and extent of spreading the UK are also costly to forest managers. There is thus an important balance to be struck. Understanding the costs and benefits of management options to reduce disease risk requires the researcher to jointly consider both environmental and economic drivers. The characteristics of the physical and biological environment affect the spread of plant diseases, but the response of forest managers also determines this spread. Moreover, the outcomes for a given forest manager of their own actions depends on the actions of others in the landscape, since it is the overall spatial pattern of land management which determines disease spread.

Forests in the UK provide a range of important ecosystem services. Forests are used for the production of timber, but also have recreational and aesthetic values and play a key role in the carbon cycle. Land management policies which maximize the non-monetary (e.g. conservation) or monetary (e.g. timber) value of output do not necessarily lead to a forest landscape structure, tree species composition or forestry practices that are best for disease risk minimization. There is a potential conflict between enhancing the carbon sequestration and provisioning and cultural ecosystem services of forests on one hand, and increasing the resistance and resilience of forest ecosystems with regard to outbreaks of pests and pathogens on the other.

Aims and objectives
In this project, an interdisciplinary team of mathematicians, forest ecologists and economists will work together to build a series of models to allow us to study the ways in which different management options can reduce risks and expected damages from a range of forest diseases. Besides considering the effects of disease management options on the spread of diseases, the models will generate information on the effects of these options on the supply of other ecosystem services from forests, such as carbon sequestration and storage, and recreation opportunities, as well as on an indicator of forest biodiversity. Combined with a "Choice Experiment" implemented with members of the general public, these models will allow us to measure the benefits and costs of these management options, and to study which policy options offer best value for public money. An important aspect of the modelling work will be to show the spatial interactions between forests which are key to understanding disease spread. We will also study the implications of uncertainty on the part of forest managers over the effects of their actions on the best choice of option, using a real options approach.

Potential applications and benefits
The project will provide results that will be of use to forest managers and to government agencies and departments which are concerned with tree and plant diseases and forest management. A risk ranking of forest management options, and a cost-benefit ranking of management options will help improve the quality of forest disease management and policy design. A wide range of stakeholders will be included in the project's knowledge exchange activities to ensure the widest application of these insights. The project will also advance scientific methods in the study of invasive diseases which are linked to land management.

Technical Summary

Our proposal aims to construct a new generation of models built upon an integration of epidemiological, ecological and economic factors that together determine the resilience of forest systems to incursions by infectious agents, and the supply of forest ecosystem services. It will allow the economic costs and benefits of disease response strategies to be evaluated from the perspectives of both private landowners and public policy choice. A key underlying idea behind the modelling is to characterise forest management options in terms of resistance and resilience to disease. Our starting point is a combination of an optimal control model and a form of discounted net benefit tailored towards multiple outcomes of forestry (timber, C sequestration and biodiversity). The model will be extended to include multiple forest types and multiple outcomes. A decision maker will have a choice of different forest types to be established in different locations. Subsequently we will develop a model incorporating multiple forest owners, where each agent is a land manager who controls a number of patches. A combination of multiple objectives and management strategies with spatial interactions across a potentially heterogeneous landscape results in an analytically intractable model and we will therefore use an agent-based model. We will also develop a real-options approach to explore how the inclusion of uncertainty and options changes the management strategies emerging from the optimal control and agent-based models described above. In order to fully parameterise the model particularly for non-market environmental costs and benefits, we will undertake a choice modelling exercise to measure the public's willingness to pay for disease mitigation and the value of avoided damages. Finally, we will use the modelling framework developed in the project to rank the policy options available to both the individual manager and to the government organisations.

Planned Impact

Who will benefit?
We anticipate that the following groups will benefit from our work: (i) The private forestry sector, including both large international firms such as UPM Tilhill, and smaller scale forest owners and managers, along with the tree nursery sector and private estates; (ii) The voluntary forestry sector, including the Woodland Trust and forest-owning charities such as RSPB and National Trust, and county Wildlife Trusts; (iii) Government policy makers such as DEFRA, FERA, the Scottish Government and the Welsh Government; (iv) The Forestry Commission, Natural Resources Wales, Scottish Natural Heritage, and Forest Research; (v) The scientific and economics research communities internationally; (vi) Members of the public who care about woodlands and forests.

How will they benefit?
The high current profile of tree diseases in the UK and internationally has created an unprecedented level of attention from a wide range of stakeholders in government, agencies and the private sector. We will early disseminate the message that inter-disciplinary ecological and economic research has the potential to provide a significant advance in the evidence required to improve the management of forest systems for disease prevention, control and mitigation. We will use key contacts as well as more open media to actively engage with these sectors at the start of the project and invite broad participation at the project stakeholder workshops.
For the private forestry sector, the main benefits will be in terms of new knowledge about the effectiveness of management options at the level of individual forests and the landscape. The voluntary forestry sector also faces similar problems with regard to disease risk and the need for spatially-coordinated management. Provision of a ranking of management options according to their impact on resistance and resilience will also be of use to private forest managers in terms of which kinds of forest they prioritise for investments.
Governments will potentially benefit from new evidence of the spatial- and cost-effectiveness of policy options, along with information on how the public prioritises? and values government interventions in disease control and mitigation. Government can use the ranking of management options in deciding details of advisory and funding schemes for changes in forestry practice.
The Forestry Commission, Natural Resources Wales, Scottish Natural Heritage, and Forest Research will benefit through the generation of insights into the social benefits and costs of alternative management interventions and from improved knowledge of new research and modelling methods acquired through their close participation in the project work. The spatial modelling work will also assist these bodies in understanding how economic incentives combine with environmental and epidemiological factors to determine the spread of disease. The generic modelling approach will have impact on understanding of diseases in other land-use sectors.
The international research community will benefit from our fundamental research, development of models, and provision of novel data. We will share our data primarily via EIDC. We will engage with the international research community via publications in high profile journals and contributions at international conferences and workshops; we will organise an international conference to communicate the results to a wide interdisciplinary audience.
Serious forest dieback, and control through tree felling will have a direct impact on wider society through reduced provision of ecosystem services and some control measures may necessitate severe restrictions on public access to forest landscapes. Members of the public will therefore gain in that our research will facilitate more effective interventions for tree diseases, which could reduce the significant losses in ecosystem services, and restrict the geographical areas that need to be subjected to drastic control measures.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Policy options were investigated through bioeconomic modelling to explore how disease management (both before and after disease arrival) can be shaped by epidemiological factors such as the availability and effectiveness of biosecurity measures and the uncertainty in future infection rate. Choice experiments were used to understand the influence of various forms of incentives and regulation on the adoption of control measures by forest managers. Key findings were:
1. Investing in biosecurity can reduce future costs by delaying (or preventing) the arrival of a pest or pathogen. We found that, when resources are constrained, the optimal level of effort put into biosecurity is largely dependent on key epidemiological factors (such as the rate of spread and the expected damage caused by the pest or pathogen), the effectiveness of the biosecurity measure, and the availability (and effectiveness) of a reactive control measure.
2. The level of uncertainty in the future rate of infection is key to deciding if it is optimal to adopt a control measure; greater uncertainty increases the benefit of waiting before deploying a control to learn more about the spread rate. The management objectives for a forest can influence the timing of control adoption, and, in some circumstances, could lead to sub-optimal control over the wider landscape. We have shown that coordination of control adoption amongst the managers of individual forests could be achieved through a subsidy scheme.
3. Choice experiments revealed that forest managers (in both UK and Finland) are willing to participate in grant-financed tree disease control programmes. However, this is dependent on the programme duration, frequency of inspection visits and the control measures to be used. The results suggested it is possible to induce joint participation of forest managers in disease control if an 'agglomeration' monetary bonus is included, confirming the previous theoretical finding.
4. The nature of dispersal of many tree pathogens makes it necessary to consider how the actions of one forester affect the spread of disease to neighbouring properties. However, most existing bioeconomic (optimal control) models essentially ignore such spatial externalities. Two network models were developed to capture different aspects of disease spread. Using the single-outbreak model, we showed that the outcome crucially depends on the spatial scale at which managers assess risk; the scale of control actions need to match the pathogen's characteristic scale of dispersal. We also investigated the emergence and stability of cooperation among forest or tree nursery owners to prevent outbreaks of a disease. We showed that cooperation is more likely to persist if owners take into account the history of interactions with their neighbours.
Public perceptions of tree disease and their attitude to possible state-supported disease control were investigated through a separate choice experiment. The results revealed that members of the public are willing to support (with public funds) disease management, but their willingness to pay depends on the ownership of affected forests, what benefits of the forest are most negatively affected by the disease and what control measures are used. Specifically, disease control is more likely to be supported for public and charity-owned forests, and there is a clear negative sentiment against clear-felling or chemical/biocide spraying as control measures. Acceptability of clear-felling in response to a disease outbreak is increased if the recovery measures that will be taken afterwards are specified.
Forest management options were explored through literature review and modelling. Disease epidemiology was shown to influence the choice of tree rotation length and species mix. In particular, disease characteristics, such as the rate of spread and the reduction in timber value (caused by disease), decreased the optimal rotation length and the optimal proportion of susceptible species to be planted in a mixture. However, incorporating non-timber benefits from a standing forest can under some circumstances counter the negative effect caused by the disease on the optimal rotation length. These generalisable models provide a framework which can be extended to look at specific host-pathogen systems.
The project used a range of different approaches - including choice experiments, and epidemiological and economic modelling. Its methods and results were reviewed in two workshops involving policymakers and researchers. The discussions confirmed that the methodological developments provide a good foundation for further research and future application to decision-making at a range of scales (from national policy to management decisions for individual forest stands). Models needed to support forestry policy and management decision-making for tree diseases and pests because of serious lack of empirical evidence
Due to long time horizons, variable spatial scales, diversity of management objectives, and complexity of trade-offs between them, models have an established value to inform forestry decision making. However, we also found that the power of models is often limited by lack of empirical data on ecological/management interactions influencing disease epidemiology. Models alone will not produce verified "facts" about disease epidemics and their impacts, but models do enable relationships between factors to be tested to determine their relative effect on disease outcomes. Thus, we conclude that modelling is important to identify the priority needs for new empirical research. In the meantime, modelling to provide reliable predictions must be restricted to the few well-documented host/pathogen cases.
Exploitation Route Support for policymaking:
1. Q. Relative effectiveness of investing in biosecurity measures to try to prevent/ delay the arrival of a pest/pathogen versus control measures after it has arrived? A. Investing in effective biosecurity (PM) only reduces costs for diseases with larger transmission rates and annual timber loss
2. Q. How serious is current lack of evidence about infection dynamics of a pest/ pathogen invasion for development of an optimal control strategy? A. Greater uncertainty about future infection rates increases the benefit of "wait and see" rather than the early adoption of control, with serious consequences for disease spread
3. Q. What influences the willingness of forest managers to adopt grant-funded control measures? A. A high proportion of forest managers are concerned about existing (42%) and new (82%) tree diseases; Willingness to adopt control is greater if contracts are shorter, with less frequent inspections, require thinning/ mixed measures NOT clear felling or chemicals/biocides
4. Q. How much is the adoption of control measures influenced by the objectives of different forest managers? A. For diseases that damage timber values, managers who prioritise shorter-term non-timber benefits will not adopt control at a level of infection when timber managers have adopted control
5. Q. How important is it to achieve universal adoption of control measures by forest managers in a landscape, e.g. through a grant scheme? A. Uneven adoption of control by different managers risks greater rate of infection spread within a landscape; Grant payments for annual costs of control would make it optimal for all forest managers (timber and non-timber) to adopt control at the same time and maintain it
6. Q. At what spatial scale does such co-ordinated disease control action need to be taken? A. Crucial to know pathogen's characteristic scale of dispersal, to inform managers about risk and for matching co-ordinated control actions within a landscape
7. Q. How important is managers' attitude to taking joint actions with neighbours? A. "Neighbourhood bonus": forest managers' willingness to adopt a control scheme is greatly increased by a monetary bonus for inviting neighbouring forest owners to join; Co-operation more likely to persist if managers have a positive history of cooperative action with their neighbours
8. Q. What influences the willingness of the public to support tax-funded tree disease control? A. Strong willingness to pay for tree disease control, but much greater for public-/charity-owned forests than privately-owned; Public much less willing to support control by clear-felling or chemical/biocide than by less disruptive measures like thinning; Support for clear-felling greater if followed by replanting
Support for forest management:
1. Q. How good is the existing evidence of the benefit of silvicultural options to increase forest resilience to tree disease? A. The empirical evidence base is weak. The strongest support for benefits of planting more resistant tree species, tree mixtures, increased levels of thinning; costs of woodland habitat network connectivity; Lack of evidence on effects of scale of mixing tree species (from trees to blocks) or heterogeneity between neighbouring blocks
2. Q. When should a forest infected by a tree disease be harvested? A. Tree disease that decreases timber value reduces optimal rotation length, especially for fast-transmitting pests/pathogens; Implications for the strategy of planting selected fast-growing Sitka spruce need to be considered
3. Q. How is optimal harvest time influenced by the relative importance of timber and non-timber benefits of the forest? A. Increase in non-timber benefits from a cover of unharvested (even if diseased) trees increases optimal rotation length
4. Q. How beneficial is it to plant a mixture of a tree species more resistant to disease with a more valuable but susceptible species? A. Including second tree species can increase the net economic benefit, even if it has low timber value, by diluting trees of the susceptible commercial species; Advantage is lost if two species are planted in separate blocks
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism

URL http://www.forestresilience.net
 
Description By building the theoretical basis for modelling impact of diseases on forest management, we have expanded the potential of models to inform policy-making. This was communicated particularly through two workshops (run by the project in 2014 and 2017) targeted at policy-makers and agencies responsible for advising and regulating practitioners. In addition, it was communicated at other stakeholder engagement activities as described in the Engagement Activities field within ResearchFish. The project results influenced the construction of the Plant Health Outbreak Decision Support Framework commission by and under separate funding from Defra and Forestry Commission; this Framework will be used to help policy-makers in shaping decisions to control forest diseases under an outbreak scenario.
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Environment
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description BSPP Undergraduate Vacation Bursary
Amount £2,500 (GEL)
Organisation The British Society of Plant Pathology 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Unknown
Start 06/2016 
End 08/2016
 
Description DEFRA/FC ITT/0365
Amount £120,000 (GBP)
Funding ID FC/0365 
Organisation Forestry Commission 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2016 
End 10/2017
 
Description Scottish Government Strategic Programme: Disease management options
Amount £300,000 (GBP)
Organisation Government of Scotland 
Department Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS)
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 03/2021
 
Title choice experiment study of UK public 
Description choice experiment study of preferences of the uk public for control options for forest diseases 
Type Of Material Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human 
Year Produced 2017 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact none at present we are aware of 
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation Forest Research
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation Government of Scotland
Department Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation James Hutton Institute
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (RBGE)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation Scotland's Rural College
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description Centre of Expertise in Plant Health (Scotland) 
Organisation University of Edinburgh
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Kleczkowski contributed to the Expert Group preparing the business case for the Scottish Government and was part of the consortium that was successful in the bid. He is now
Collaborator Contribution Working with the recently appointed Chief Plant Health Officer for Scotland, the Centre will bring together key plant sectors to co-ordinate plant health needs and activities across Scotland. It will be headed up by the James Hutton Institute, along with sector leads from Scotland's Rural College (agriculture), Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh (horticulture and environment) and Forest Research (forestry), together with partners from the universities of Edinburgh, Stirling and Strathclyde, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology and Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS), each bringing with them a range of skills from understanding public perceptions to long-term disease forecasting.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2018
 
Description FERA, York and Salford 
Organisation Fera Science Limited
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Multiple 
PI Contribution Modelling spread for the project "Developing a Plant Health Outbreak Decision Support Framework
Collaborator Contribution FERA: Lead and developing the tool; University of Salford: Prediction; University of York: Values
Impact Not yet
Start Year 2016
 
Description FERA, York and Salford 
Organisation University of Salford
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Modelling spread for the project "Developing a Plant Health Outbreak Decision Support Framework
Collaborator Contribution FERA: Lead and developing the tool; University of Salford: Prediction; University of York: Values
Impact Not yet
Start Year 2016
 
Description FERA, York and Salford 
Organisation University of York
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Modelling spread for the project "Developing a Plant Health Outbreak Decision Support Framework
Collaborator Contribution FERA: Lead and developing the tool; University of Salford: Prediction; University of York: Values
Impact Not yet
Start Year 2016
 
Title A PLANT HEALTH OUTBREAK DECISION SUPPORT FRAMEWORK 
Description Decision makers require rapid, transparent and consistent input concerning the costs and benefits of possible policy responses to current and future pest and disease threats to UK trees and woodlands. This project aimed to develop a generic framework that quantifies economic, social, environmental, political, technical and legal considerations. The framework is realised in a flexible and transparent tool that is designed to be used jointly by analysts, scientists, and policy experts involved in responding to actual or potential pest/disease incursions. 
Type Of Technology Webtool/Application 
Year Produced 2018 
Impact Not at present. 
 
Description 30th Marian Smoluchowski Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented a talk at the 30th Marian Smoluchowski Symposium 2017: On the Uniformity of Laws of Nature in Krakow, Poland. This event was attended by researchers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description APHA Modelling Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Invited speaker at the APHA Modelling Workshop; attended by Defra and industry representatives. Held numerous discussions presenting the project outcomes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Article in NERC Planet Earth magazine 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact An article in Planet Earth as part of the series presenting THAPBI projects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Bangor University Forestry Summer School 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Informal presentation of the project and its objectives.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Co-organisation and participation in workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Plant Health Modelling Workshop, 20th May 2016, Cambridge. This meeting was attended by experts in the field of plant health modelling and policy makers in the UK. In the morning the FOREMOD team members gave an update of the progress, and there were three talks from invited speakers on modelling and policy in plant health. The afternoon a discussion session focussed on three key modelling components of plant health.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Engagement with Institute of Chartered Foresters Members in Choice Experiment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ICF Update February 2017 e-news: Help Needed to Improve Forest Policy Across the UK:
By taking part in this survey, you will be helping research with its on-going work to improve policy and practice to address the problem of invasive forest diseases and pest in the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Expert Panel for the Scottish Centre of Expertise - Plant Health 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact Discussion on future developments in Plant Health in Scotland

Expert group will continue to meet
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description FCS/SNH - workshop on unpredictable events in plant health 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Participated in the workshop and presented a talk on the current project

Discussion followed the presentation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Field visit to a forest 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact During a field visit to a forest site presented objectives and findings of the project to a forest manager.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Forestry Day at the Royal Welsh Show 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Informal presentation of the project and its objectives
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Industry/business focused interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Co-organised and participated in a structured interview with industry representatives results of which will form a part of the project outcomes. Presented the project to the industry representatives.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Innovation in Plant Biosecurity 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Participated in Innovation in Plant Biosecurity 2017 workshop organised by FERA. Co-author of one presentation and one poster.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Institute of Chartered Foresters National Conference on Tree Health, Resilience and Sustainability 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented a poster at the conference aimed at professional practitioners. This resulted in discussions and possible future engagement.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description International Delegation Workshop (Bangor) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact I co-hosted and presented to a three-day workshop held jointly with a senior delegation from the Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT, Changsha, Hunan, China) to Bangor University in April 2017. My presentation included the research of our THAPBI project. The challenges of tree health, compared between China and UK, and implications for forestry education and practice were a major component of the discussions with the delegation (which included CSUFT leaders and senior forestry staff, with major links to forest policy and practice in China).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description International Workshop (Bangor) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Third sector organisations
Results and Impact 'Rewilding in a Changing Europe'. International Workshop, Sêr Cymru National Research Network for Low Carbon, Energy & Environment, Bangor, 10th January 2018. I was a co-organiser and participant in this workshop. Together with Dr Craig Shuttleworth, I introduced the issue of invasive species (including pathogens and pests of trees) into the workshop, which generated significant discussion about how this issue influences the objectives of the "rewilding" approach to land management, and what its practical implications are for the level of intervention that should be carried out in "rewilded" landscapes. This is of profound importance for the future viability of this approach, and was the subject of lively debate, reflected in the outcomes of the workshop. This has major implications for policy making with respect to rewilding as reflected by the policy maker participation in the workshop.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Invited talk at Science Advice for Scottish Agriculture 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Presented an invited talk to an audience with a mixture of researchers and policy makers, sparking a discussion on potential collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Joint Defra:GCSA Stakeholder Workshop: Animal and Plant Health in the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion on the status of animal and plant research

Report will be drafted by BBSRC and Defra working group
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Meeting with UK Government Minister (Bangor) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I co-hosted the visit to Bangor of Dr Thérèse Coffey MP, UK Government Environment Minister responsible for forestry, the natural environment and biodiversity, on 20th October 2017. I made a presentation to the Minister which featured our THAPBI project research, including its collaboration with Forest Research. The Minister made this visit to meet both forestry staff and students at Bangor University, and a range of other stakeholders in the forestry sector. The impact of tree disease on forest management in the UK, plans for expansion of forest area in England, and implications for professional knowledge and skills in the forestry sector were significant components of discussion with the Minister.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Plant Health Workshop May 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Organised Plant Health workshop (20.05.2016 in Cambridge UK) which was attended by experts in the field of plant health modelling and policy makers in the UK
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Professional annual conference (Bangor) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I gave the invited openning address/presentation of the 2017 Institute of Chartered Foresters Wales Region: Annual Conference, 17 November 2017, Bangor. This included the implications for policy and practice of current tree disease threats to forests in Wales. There was very high attendance at the conference from a broad range of sections of the professional forestry sector in Wales, including the national President of the ICF, representatives from large and small forest industry enterprises, policy makers from Natural Resources Wales and a range of other agencies, a range of NGOs involved in natural resource management, and major charities engaged in woodlands, e.g. "Woodland Heritage", as well as a good attendance of forestry undergraduate and postgraduate students. This full day meeting generated much audience participation and discussion, including on the tree health issues that are such a major consideration for forest management and the economic future of the industry. The meeting exposed a major need from the sector for improved information on the economic implications of tree disease and management response.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Professional annual meeting participation (Twyi Forest) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I actively participated in the 2017 Institute of Chartered Foresters Wales Region Annual Meeting "Making the Case for Deforestation & Afforestation". 16 June 2017. Twyi Forest. Tree health issues were a major theme of the event, and I addressed the meeting at various points. This discussion engaged many of the major professional forest policy makers and practitioners in Wales on challenging issues of tree species selection and forest management under threat of tree diseases, signifincantly advancing understanding, with major potential implications for future professional decision making.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Project dissemination event (Edinburgh) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The major dissemination event of the FOREMOD THAPBI Project. This was attended by a wide range of researchers, policy makers, forestry professionals/practitioners and third sector organisations. Implications for forestry policy and practice was a dominant theme in the second day of the event. I made a presentation in this component of the event, as well as co-authoring other presentations (these are reported in Research Fish as conference presentations).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Project dissemination event (Edinburgh) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The major dissemination event of the FOREMOD THAPBI Project. This was attended by a wide range of researchers, policy makers, forestry professionals/practitioners and third sector organisations. Implications for forestry policy and practice was a dominant theme in the second day of the event. I made a presentation in this component of the event, as well as co-authoring other presentations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.forestresilience.net
 
Description Project stakeholder meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A series of presentations from group members and invited speakers at a meeting involving policy makers and practitioners which resulted in a lively discussion on remits of modelling approaches to controlling forest diseases.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description QJF Article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact How can economic modelling help inform control of tree disease? - the FOREMOD project By Morag Macpherson, Ciara Dangerfield and Oleg Sheremet (to be published April 2017)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Regional meeting of CONFOR (Confederation of Forest Industries) - January 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Informal presentation of the project at a meeting involving representatives of industry and NGOs resulting in wide interest in the project findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Regional meeting of CONFOR (Confederation of Forest Industries) - October 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Informal presentation of the project at a regional meeting of industry, practitioners, NGOs and public. Also presented a poster showcasing the project resulting in wide interest in the project findings.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Royal Welsh Show 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Attended the Royal Welsh Show 2017 (Forestry Day), participated in event organised by CONFOR (major UK national forest industry body), and engaged with major Third Sector Organisations such as Woodland Trust, Coed Cymru, WoodKnowledge Wales, including the highly topical concerns about tree disease implications for woodland management for delivery of a wide range of ecosystem services, biodiversity and commercial forestry.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Science Fair 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Science Fair is a public engagement forum organised by the School of Natural Sciences at the University of Stirling, aimed at general public, mainly primary school children. The main goal is to popularise 'science for all'. We are organising a stand in which children play games to stop diseases from spreading, using a plant disease as an example.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description THAPBI Dissemination Event (London) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Healey, J.R. et al. (2018). FOREMOD - Forest resilience modelling disease. Presentation to Tree Health and Plant Biosecurity Initiative Dissemination Event, 7th February 2018, London. Also co-hosted (with project members Dr Elizabeth Walley, University of Warwick, and Professor Chris Quine, Forest Research) a stand during the "speed networking" component of the event, during which we discussed the project's research and implications with a high proportion the event participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description The RFS and The Woodland Trust present: Resilient Woodlands: meeting the challenges 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Attended a workshop and informally presented the objectives and findings of the project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description UK Forestry Review 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Attended UK Forestry Review 2017 workshop organised by Tilhill Forestry and John Clegg and Co, including the launch of The 9th Annual Forest Market Report 2017. Engaged in discussions with industry and business representatives and general public.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Welsh Government woodland policy panel meeting (Abergwyngregyn) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Jointly with Dr Tim Pagella, I gave an invited presentation to Woodland Strategy Advisory Panel (Wales) on "Assessment of the factors limiting the availability of sites for woodland expansion in Wales and strategies to overcome them", Abergwyngregyn, Gwynedd, 10th July 2017. During discussion with the panel the issue of tree diseases was identified as an important factor in strategy for woodland expansion, and the results of our THAPBI project research were discussed in this context.
The Woodland Strategy Advisory Panel has 18 members whose interests and experience span most of the diverse roles of woodlands in Wales. They advise the Welsh Government on: the development of policies relating to trees and woodlands in Wales; advice on the implementation of the Woodland for Wales Strategy; commissioning research and evidence to support forestry policy development. The panel also report to Welsh Ministers on disputed decisions of Natural Resources Wales as prescribed in the Forestry Act 1967.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description presentation at EnvEcon conference, London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact presentation at EnvEcon conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018