US-UK EEID Collab: Risks of Animal and Plant Infectious Diseases Through Trade (RAPID trade)

The dispersal of animal and plant diseases is among the most important side effects of a closely-integrated global economy. Disease impacts on crop yields and livestock puts global food supplies at risk, and the movement of zoonotic pathogens puts human health at risk. Yet trade is also a principal driver of income growth. Striking the right balance in trade decisions between disease risk and opportunities for economic growth is critical to the wellbeing of people in both developed and developing countries. There is therefore an urgent need for developing risk assessment tools for managing animal and plant disease risk at both national and international scales that capture the risks and opportunities in evolving trade patterns, and hence help to identify opportunities for economic growth.

The broad aim of the project is to combine state-of-the-art ecological network modelling with multi-scale economic modelling to assess the infectious disease risks posed to animals and plants by world trade networks. We will first examine how factors that inform trade decisions, such as relative prices, taxes and import duties affect risks. We will then investigate the effect of interventions in the market by (a) animal/plant health managers at the local scale, (b) border control agents at the national scale, and (c) multilateral agreements and intergovernmental organizations at the international scale. At the local scale we will examine the effect of controls implemented during outbreaks, and the impact these have on disease risks, e.g. the effect of compensation measures introduced during the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak. At the national scale we will consider the design of trade-based risk assessment, taking into account potential post-importation risks within the importing country, and investigate how imports should be categorized into groups based on potential future risks. At the international scale, we will examine the potential for reducing disease risks through cooperation between national border control agencies.

Through partnerships with US APHIS and UK FERA we will access data on selected animal and plant diseases to extend scientific understanding of the nature of anthropogenic animal and plant disease risk. The trade-based risk assessment methods will provide animal and plant health authorities at both the national and international level with the capacity to make improved assessment of the animal and plant health risks associated with imports, and of the effects of trade responses. This may enhance national security by improving disease risk management. It may also enhance national wellbeing by reducing the losses caused by trade interventions. Internationally, we expect to partner with the Food and Agricultural Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. We will develop novel methods for communicating risk to public and private sector organisations and policy-makers, engaging them in the development of a web-based interface that will illustrate how opportunities and risks vary in response to trade interventions.

The project will build research infrastructure by strengthening an existing network of US universities concerned with the management of disease risks, and by extending that network to include universities in the UK. We will complement the scientific work within the project with an extensive training programme for PhD students and early career researchers, and over the four years of the project, we expect to train 5 PhD students (supported by research assistantships) and 4 postdoctoral fellows (supported by postdoctoral fellowships) in modeling anthropogenic factors in the spread of infectious diseases, in assessing trade related disease risks, and in risk communication.

Disease impacts on crop yields and livestock put global food supplies at risk, while emergent zoonoses put human health at risk. This project will develop risk assessment models for managing animal and plant disease risk at both national and international scales that will incorporate the most recent advances in ecological network analysis to better capture the impact of evolving trade patterns on animal and plant health.

The project has four specific objectives: 1) to improve understanding of the influence of disease risk in private trade (importers') decisions; 2) to use this information to develop trade-risk assessment methods that can enhance local and national disease risk management; 3) to improve capacity to predict the implications of trade interventions on risk, and to explore options for managing this at the international scale; and 4) to develop a virtual laboratory to allow industry and policy-makers to evaluate alternative disease risk management strategies at local, national and international scale in response to various trade or regulatory interventions.

This project is expected to extend scientific understanding of the nature of anthropogenic animal and plant disease risk. Trade-based risk assessment methods will provide animal and plant health authorities at both the national and international level with the capacity to make improved assessment of the animal and plant health risks associated with imports, and of the effects of trade responses, and we will show how national security may be most effectively protected through international cooperation.

We will partner with two of the national organizations responsible for animal and plant disease risk assessment and management, US APHIS and UK FERA. Internationally, we expect to partner with the FAO, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement.

1. Benefits to individual nations
The project will offer benefits to the US and UK both by enhancing the national capacity to manage disease risk, and by protecting the benefits offered by international trade. Enhanced trade-based risk assessment methods will provide animal and plant health authorities at both the national and international level with the capacity to make improved assessment of the animal and plant health risks associated with imports, and of the effects of trade responses. These new risk assessment methods should also help to promote national security by improving capacity to manage risks at different scales, and should enhance national wellbeing by minimizing trade losses incurred when we fail to distinguish between safe and unsafe commodities.

2. International cooperation
We will strengthen understanding of the conditions in which national biosecurity is best protected through international cooperation. By exploring the way that the international disease risk landscape changes with changes in the pattern of international trade, we will show how disease risks are interdependent. This will make it possible to explore the potential gains from greater international coordination and cooperation in disease risk management.

3. Research infrastructure
We will enhance research infrastructure in three ways: a) by developing partnerships with researchers in government laboratories charged with protecting the country against the disease risks posed by imported animal and plant products, US APHIS and UK FERA, b) by building research collaborations between academic institutions in the USA and the UK, and c) by strengthening a network of US universities and research NGOs concerned with the science and management of disease.

4. Policy and stakeholder engagement
We will seek to partner with other organizations as the research proceeds. Internationally, we expect to partner with the Food and Agricultural Organization, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC), the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) and the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement. The models to be developed in the proposal will provide test-beds for the evaluation of an alternative set of incentive-based disease management tools, and we will hope to evaluate these tools jointly with disease management agencies at various levels.

5. Knowledge exchange
We will broaden dissemination to enhance scientific and technological understanding through the co-development of a virtual disease risk laboratory. The co-development process will help to ensure stakeholder confidence in the set of models used as a virtual risk assessment laboratory, both by allowing their participation in model development, and by demonstrating the validity of the approach in terms that are understandable and transparent. We will also partner with the ecoHEALTH network of DIVERSITAS and its successors under Future Earth to disseminate the results to the international animal and plant health policy community.

6. Training
We will combine discovery with teaching, training, and learning. Over the four years of the project, we expect to train five PhD students (supported by research assistantships) and four postdoctoral fellows (supported by postdoctoral fellowships) in modeling anthropogenic factors in the spread of infectious diseases, in assessing trade related disease risks, and in risk communication.

7. Diversity and inclusion
We will broaden participation of under-represented groups through our selection of graduate research assistants and postdoctoral fellows. We will exploit our existing links to the Mathematical and Theoretical Biology Institute (MTBI) (members of the team teach in the program), which mentors students of mathematics each summer, to bring the opportunities offered by the grant to the attention of potential candidates among underrepresented minorities.