FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub: MACSUR-Partner 143

Lead Research Organisation: Cranfield University
Department Name: School of Water, Energy and Environment

Abstract

FACCE MACSUR2 is made up of partners from over 70 European research institutes, working in three themes focused on crop, livestock and trade modelling. The knowledge hub will use networking and exchanges to further advance European agricultural research capacity in modelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security. State-of-the-art climate change risk assessments will be developed for farming and food security at European and regional case study levels. MACSUR2 will build upon the strong links established by networking in MACSUR1 to address the following core objectives:

1. Further advancement of European agricultural research capacity, using networking and exchanges to bring together modelling groups and to link modellers more effectively with experimental researchers.
2. To maintain up-to-date results on climate impacts on agriculture and food security in line with selected core global socioeconomic and climate scenarios until 2050.
3. To develop a new state-of-the art Europe-wide climate change risk assessment for farming and food security
4. To build on the work of MACSUR1 in extending and developing training for 'integrated modellers' able to work across modelling disciplines and to provide integrated, stakeholder-relevant interpretations of modelling outcomes.
5. To develop additional regional integrated case studies for addressing region-specific climate and socioeconomic impacts, needs and chances for adaptation and mitigation.
6. To continue to engage with stakeholders including policy-makers and agro-food-chain representatives to ensure the relevance and impact of modelling approaches and outputs

Given the scientific excellence of the Knowledge Hub, MACSUR2 will address to a greater extent on the interests of policymakers and the agro-food chain, especially farmers.

Technical Summary

FACCE MACSUR2 aims to further advance European agricultural research capacity in modelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security, using networking and exchanges to synthesize the research outcomes and approaches of modelling groups and experimental researchers from over 70 institutes in 17 European countries. The overarching challenge is to further develop the pan-European capability in the development, use and interpretation of models to perform risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on European agriculture.

The core Objectives are:
1. Further advancement of European agricultural research capacity, using networking and exchanges to bring together modelling groups and to link modellers more effectively with experimental researchers.
2. To maintain up-to-date results on climate impacts on agriculture and food security in line with selected core global socioeconomic and climate scenarios until 2050.
3. To develop a new state-of-the art Europe-wide climate change risk assessment for farming and food security
4. To build on the work of phase 1 in extending and developing training for 'integrated modellers' able to work across modelling disciplines and to provide integrated, stakeholder-relevant interpretations of modelling outcomes.
5. To develop additional regional integrated case studies for addressing region-specific climate and socioeconomic impacts, needs and chances for adaptation and mitigation.
6. To continue to engage with stakeholders including policy-makers and agro-food-chain representatives to ensure the relevance and impact of modelling approaches and outputs

The MACSUR1 structure of hub coordination and CropM, LiveM and TradeM Themes will be continued in MACSUR2 but complemented by cross-cutting activities bringing together modelling approaches across disciplines to address subject- and region-specific issues.

Planned Impact

MACSUR2 aims to improve our understanding of how European agriculture can adapt to and mitigate climate change. It is therefore of direct relevance to policy makers and the producers and users of food in the European Union. The project is very high profile and is certain to attract considerable interest from these communities as it progresses. In order to ensure that we able to meet this demand for information we will extend and further develop activities undertaken in MACSUR1 to integrate dissemination within the project. Stakeholders will continue to be involved in the major events of the project and the cross-theme stakeholder group will work to further enhance the capacity for and effectiveness of stakeholder engagement in the development and application of modelling. Beyond Europe, it is expected that the activities of MACSUR2 will continue to contribute to the parallel, global modelling efforts of the AgMIP consortium, and build link to other groupings such as GRA (Global Research Alliance), JPI Climate and the ERA Net Plus on Climate Smart Agriculture

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Our activities within the much larger MACSUR consortium have provided a number of key findings which contribute to the three main components of MACSUR - integrated modelling, crop yield modelling and livestock modelling:
1) The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. An integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) was used to investigate European agricultural and forestry landuse change across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. Substantial consistency in the locations and types of change was found even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change in isolation will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. The very low likelihood (<33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
2) A systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of the reported projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe was carried out. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, this was the first systematic review undertaken for Europe. Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. Based on the reported results (n = 729) the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%, although there are strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (-11%). The research highlights that climate impacts in Europe can be beneficial for many crops and areas of production, but that there are multitude of risks that climate change still poses to agricultural output and food systems in Europe and globally should not be ignored.
3) Grassland-based ruminant (mainly cow and sheep) production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe. A horizon scanning exercise identified 15 challenges to European grassland modelling in the context of climate change related to the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward, climate change effects on grassland systems outputs, mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and cross-cutting methodological issues. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change
4) Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. A horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews, was carried out to identify a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.
5) The agriculturally-focussed European versions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (or socio-economic scenarios) [Eur-Agri-SSPs] are expected to be widely used in future climate change impact assessments
Exploitation Route The horizon scanning exercises to which we contributed provide research challenges and priorities for the grassland and livestock modelling communities to take forward. The integrated modelling framework which we applied within MACSUR is freely available to the research community to use and has been updated with the latest climate change and socio-economic scenarios. The agriculturally-focussed European versions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (or socio-economic scenarios) [Eur-Agri-SSPs] are expected to be widely used in future climate change impact assessments providing improved comparability between studies.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment

 
Description The Knowledge Hub FACCE MACSUR brings together the excellence of research in modelling grasslands, livestock, crops, farms, and agricultural trade across the European research area in order to improve the modelling of climate change impacts on European agriculture and in order to illustrate to political decision makers how climate will affect regional farming systems and food production in Europe. To achieve this goal, MACSUR has engaged in a range of activities, including methodological comparisons of models and use of their outputs (scaling, uncertainty), linking of complementary models from different sectors, involvement of stakeholders, training of young scientists, and establishing a community of practice across a broad range of scientific disciplines. The MACSUR knowledge hub has been highly successful in gathering and connecting modellers from the broad range of disciplines relevant to agriculture, including crop production, animal production, ecology and socio-economy and in sharing outcomes with key user groups. The main outcomes of this community are • development of world-leading modelling methodologies (103 models), • many joint publications in peer-reviewed scientific literature (170) with high impact addressing key aspects of agriculture and climate change, • joint development of projections with stakeholders in 20 regional case studies, • input to policymakers, including policy briefs, events and networking at national and European level (>30), • exchange of scientific knowledge and expertise through global research collaboration. Although the project and award have finished, collaborative initiatives started within MACSUR are still ongoing. In particular the development of agriculturally-focussed European versions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (Eur-Agri-SSPs) has progressed through iterative development within the wider academic and non-academic community. The methodology underpinning their development and the Eur-Agri-SSPs have now both been published within the international peer-reviewed literature (providing enhanced credibility to the scenarios). We expected the Eur-Agri-SSPs to be used extensively within agricultural modelling communities within climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies, and to inform wider scenario development and downscaling activities
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment
Impact Types Societal

 
Description Invitation to act as Review Editor in the regional assessment report for Europe and Central Asia of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Collaboration for OECD CRP bid 
Organisation Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)
Country Austria 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Led joint bid to OECD's Coperative Research Programme for conference/workshop sponsorship
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to proposal preparation
Impact Full proposal to OECD - unfortunately unsuccessful.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration for OECD CRP bid 
Organisation Wageningen University & Research
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Led joint bid to OECD's Coperative Research Programme for conference/workshop sponsorship
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to proposal preparation
Impact Full proposal to OECD - unfortunately unsuccessful.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Collaboration to develop European Shared Socio-economic Pathways 
Organisation Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO)
Country Austria 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Involved in formulating this multi-institution scenario development initiative during the Trade-M theme of MACSUR, which has been ongoing since MACSUR2 finished. Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process and the drafting of papers and presentations
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process; the interviewing of stakeholders to help develop narratives and the drafting of papers and presentations; and the delivery of presentations
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration involving economists, environmental scientists, social scientists. Outputs include: Co-author of oral presentation on "EUR-AGRI-SSPs: Protocol-based storylines for European agriculture to support integrated assessments" at AgMIPWorkshop in San José, Costa Rica (2018); Co-author of oral presentation on "Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture" at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting on 'Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy -Experiences, demand and new developments' (2018); Co-author of paper on the EUR-AGRI-SSPs which is in preparation
Start Year 2016
 
Description Collaboration to develop European Shared Socio-economic Pathways 
Organisation Natural Resources Institute Finland
Country Finland 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Involved in formulating this multi-institution scenario development initiative during the Trade-M theme of MACSUR, which has been ongoing since MACSUR2 finished. Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process and the drafting of papers and presentations
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process; the interviewing of stakeholders to help develop narratives and the drafting of papers and presentations; and the delivery of presentations
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration involving economists, environmental scientists, social scientists. Outputs include: Co-author of oral presentation on "EUR-AGRI-SSPs: Protocol-based storylines for European agriculture to support integrated assessments" at AgMIPWorkshop in San José, Costa Rica (2018); Co-author of oral presentation on "Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture" at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting on 'Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy -Experiences, demand and new developments' (2018); Co-author of paper on the EUR-AGRI-SSPs which is in preparation
Start Year 2016
 
Description Collaboration to develop European Shared Socio-economic Pathways 
Organisation University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Country Austria 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Involved in formulating this multi-institution scenario development initiative during the Trade-M theme of MACSUR, which has been ongoing since MACSUR2 finished. Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process and the drafting of papers and presentations
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process; the interviewing of stakeholders to help develop narratives and the drafting of papers and presentations; and the delivery of presentations
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration involving economists, environmental scientists, social scientists. Outputs include: Co-author of oral presentation on "EUR-AGRI-SSPs: Protocol-based storylines for European agriculture to support integrated assessments" at AgMIPWorkshop in San José, Costa Rica (2018); Co-author of oral presentation on "Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture" at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting on 'Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy -Experiences, demand and new developments' (2018); Co-author of paper on the EUR-AGRI-SSPs which is in preparation
Start Year 2016
 
Description Collaboration to develop European Shared Socio-economic Pathways 
Organisation Wageningen University & Research
Department Wageningen Food & Biobased Research
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Involved in formulating this multi-institution scenario development initiative during the Trade-M theme of MACSUR, which has been ongoing since MACSUR2 finished. Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process and the drafting of papers and presentations
Collaborator Contribution Contributed to the methodological development underpinning the scenario development process; the interviewing of stakeholders to help develop narratives and the drafting of papers and presentations; and the delivery of presentations
Impact Multi-disciplinary collaboration involving economists, environmental scientists, social scientists. Outputs include: Co-author of oral presentation on "EUR-AGRI-SSPs: Protocol-based storylines for European agriculture to support integrated assessments" at AgMIPWorkshop in San José, Costa Rica (2018); Co-author of oral presentation on "Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture" at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting on 'Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy -Experiences, demand and new developments' (2018); Co-author of paper on the EUR-AGRI-SSPs which is in preparation
Start Year 2016
 
Description UK Socio-economic scenarios User Panel and Advisory Group 
Organisation UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Invited to be a member of the User Panel and Advisory Group of the UK-SSP project commissioned by the Met Office and funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme to provide input into scenario design and user needs.
Collaborator Contribution The project os carried out by Cambridge Econometrics in collaboration with the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), University of Edinburgh and University of Exeter.
Impact UK-SSPs are still in development, so no formal outputs to date. Collaboration is multi-disciplinary involving natural and social scientists and economists
Start Year 2020
 
Description 4th Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Programme 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Contribution to presentation at the 4th Open Science Meeting of the Global Land Programme on "Developing protocol-based storylines of future European agriculture to inform integrated assessments (Eur-Agri-SSPs)". Based on the session, colleagues Mitter and Schohart published a Blog post on the Global Land Programme website on "Let's talk about scales: Eur-Agri-SSPs as example of nested scenario narratives for European agriculture and food systems" to promote the Eur-Agri-SSP initiative
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://glp.earth/news-events/blog/lets-talk-about-scales-eur-agri-ssps-example-nested-scenario-narr...
 
Description Activities at MACSUR2 2017 Science Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Various engagement activities being undertaken including session chairing, two oral presentations and a poster presentation to maximise exposure and engagement, although conference is scheduled for May 2017.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Oral presentation at AgMIP workshop 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Co-author of oral presentation on "EUR-AGRI-SSPs: Protocol-based storylines for European agriculture to support integrated assessments" at AgMIPWorkshop in San José, Costa Rica. Purpose to increase international awareness of ongoing collaborative activity to develop European versions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Organising committee of MACSUR Science Conference 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Cranfield staff member Daniel Sandars is part of the organising committee for the forthcoming MACSUR Science Conference 2017. The second phase of FACCE MACSUR (June 2015 - May 2017) emphasized cross-disciplinary alining and integration. The conference will be a summit of the international community of agricultural (crop, livestock and trade) modellers as well as of stakeholders from any segments of agriculture. The conference has three main objectives:
1.Provide an overview on recent activities and achievements in crop, livestock, trade and integrated modelling and cross-cutting activities.
2.Provide a forum for exchanging experience, sharing solutions and developing new collaborations with and among MACSUR partners.
3.Shape the future of the MACSUR community, setting out the directions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://macsur.eu/index.php/events/macsur-science-conference-2017-may-22-24
 
Description Presentation at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Co-author of oral presentation on "Protocol-based storylines for integrated assessments of future European agriculture" at 'Research Network on Economic Experiments for the CAP' meeting on 'Methods for an evidence-based agricultural policy -Experiences, demand and new developments'. Purpose was to raised awareness within the CAP community on the collaborative initiative to develop agriculturally-focussed European versions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for use in climate change assessments
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation at European Climate Change Adaptation conference 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Oral presentation on "Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe?" at European Climate Change Adaptation conference aimed to promote awareness of MACSUR research and Cranfield's land use modelling capabilities. Questions and discussions on the methodological approach to focussing on robust changes in landuse and implications for policy (as opposed to understanding uncertainty) suggested significant interest in the research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Presentation at MACSUR2 LiveM meeting in Potsdam 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation of collabarative research with Aarhus University, Norwegian University of Life Sciences and Wageningen UR that was subsequently submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Wageningen Soil Conference presentation - Sept 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact A "Masterclass" (workshop) was held at the Wageningen Soil Conference on "The future of European agricultural soil management", part of which included a presentation on the of the European Agricultural Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (Eur-Agri-SSPs) and their development. Session provided discussions and feedback that contributed to the refinement of the Eur-Agri-SSPs
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://wageningensoilconference.eu/2019/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Masterclasses-WSC2019-M23.pdf