Resilience of the UK food system to Global Shocks (RUGS)
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Edinburgh
Department Name: Sch of Geosciences
Abstract
The ability of the global food systems to rebound from shocks and in particular the resilience of the UK food system is the focus of this project. Growing populations, changing diets (in response to income changes) and bioenergy are increasing pressures on the agricultural system globally to produce the commodities demanded. The location and intensity of food production is also changing, due to the globalisation of food supply and increasing international trade in agricultural commodities. Environmental considerations are also having an influence, both through climate change impacting crops and driving adaptation strategies, and through sustainability thresholds (e.g. water or deforestation). A progressively interconnected global food system, coupled with increasing demands and constraints, increases risks (i.e. reduces resilience) to global shocks. Events that shock supply or demand in one or more regions can affect the global market, and impact producers and consumers around the world. A notable example is the 2007/08 food price spike, as well as the continued price volatility.
To understand UK food resilience the global system needs to be considered, due to this interconnectedness. Even for commodities where domestic consumption is largely produced within the UK, global markets have a significant role in determining the UK market prices, e.g. recent milk price movements. Using stakeholder consultation the project will define a set of shock scenarios. These will then be simulated in a novel model of the global food system to assess the impact on food price for the average UK consumer, and the results then analysed to identify key messages for policy maker, the food supply chain, and the public.
A diverse set of shocks scenarios with the potential to impact UK food security will be developed. These will range from relatively business-as-usual scenarios, to more extreme events. A range of future climate and socio-economic scenarios (i.e. populations and incomes) will be used, both as scenarios in their own right and as context for some of the other shocks. For example, the shocks will include; variations in trade barriers, adjustments in dietary patterns, bioenergy demand, alternative rates of technological development, and geopolitical insecurities (e.g. war). They will be described qualitatively and quantitatively, including an assessment of uncertainty and likelihood.
The effect of the shocks will be evaluated by extending and using existing coupled models, development under a EU FP7 project (LUC4C). The model departs from the usual global economic optimisation approaches previously applied to agricultural systems, and offers a more detailed spatial representation of crop and pasture yields for a range of intensities, i.e. fertiliser and irrigation rates. The model also relaxes some of the more restrictive market assumptions. The model does not require market equilibrium and is able to represent non-economic governmental response behaviour, e.g. the imposition of trade barrier due to supply shortages. A further complexity is the two-way interaction between climate and the global food system. Climate change effects crop growing condition, the probabilities of extreme weather events, and will influences producer adaptation to changing conditions. But climate is also affected by land use, a substantial proportion of total anthropocentric carbon dioxide emissions are associated with land use change. To represent the feedbacks between land use and climate the project's model framework includes a coupled climate system model, vegetative model, and land use model.
Policymaker, industry and supply chain stakeholder interventions to potentially increase the resilience of the UK food system will be examined, based on the simulation results. The project will also consider the effect of market power, and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience.
To understand UK food resilience the global system needs to be considered, due to this interconnectedness. Even for commodities where domestic consumption is largely produced within the UK, global markets have a significant role in determining the UK market prices, e.g. recent milk price movements. Using stakeholder consultation the project will define a set of shock scenarios. These will then be simulated in a novel model of the global food system to assess the impact on food price for the average UK consumer, and the results then analysed to identify key messages for policy maker, the food supply chain, and the public.
A diverse set of shocks scenarios with the potential to impact UK food security will be developed. These will range from relatively business-as-usual scenarios, to more extreme events. A range of future climate and socio-economic scenarios (i.e. populations and incomes) will be used, both as scenarios in their own right and as context for some of the other shocks. For example, the shocks will include; variations in trade barriers, adjustments in dietary patterns, bioenergy demand, alternative rates of technological development, and geopolitical insecurities (e.g. war). They will be described qualitatively and quantitatively, including an assessment of uncertainty and likelihood.
The effect of the shocks will be evaluated by extending and using existing coupled models, development under a EU FP7 project (LUC4C). The model departs from the usual global economic optimisation approaches previously applied to agricultural systems, and offers a more detailed spatial representation of crop and pasture yields for a range of intensities, i.e. fertiliser and irrigation rates. The model also relaxes some of the more restrictive market assumptions. The model does not require market equilibrium and is able to represent non-economic governmental response behaviour, e.g. the imposition of trade barrier due to supply shortages. A further complexity is the two-way interaction between climate and the global food system. Climate change effects crop growing condition, the probabilities of extreme weather events, and will influences producer adaptation to changing conditions. But climate is also affected by land use, a substantial proportion of total anthropocentric carbon dioxide emissions are associated with land use change. To represent the feedbacks between land use and climate the project's model framework includes a coupled climate system model, vegetative model, and land use model.
Policymaker, industry and supply chain stakeholder interventions to potentially increase the resilience of the UK food system will be examined, based on the simulation results. The project will also consider the effect of market power, and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience.
Technical Summary
The ability of the global food systems to rebound from shocks and in particular the resilience of the UK food system is the focus of this project. The global food system is changing driven by increasing demand for agricultural commodities due to rising population and dietary changes, e.g. greater meat consumption, and demand for bioenergy feedstock. A progressively interconnected global food system, coupled with increasingly binding environmental constraints and growing demands, creates systemic risks to global shocks, i.e. reduces resilience. Events that shock supply or demand in one or more regions can affect the global market, and impact consumers and producers around the world.
The project will, in collaboration with stakeholders, define a diverse set of shocks scenarios, and then simulate the impact of these using a novel model of the global food system. Compared to previous studies of the agricultural system this project will loosen the equilibrium market assumptions to better capture observed behaviours (e.g. non-equilibrium markets and governmental response behaviour), and will include a more accurate representation of spatial factors based on biophysical properties of yield, including the response to production intensification (i.e. fertilisation and irrigation). The impact of uncertainty will be assessed using a probabilistic approach (i.e. Monte Carlo). These advances will provide new insights into the dynamics of agricultural land use change, and the resilience of the UK food system.
The potential responses and actions applicable to industry, supply chain stakeholder, and policymakers, to increase the resilience of the UK food system will be considered, based on the model results. The project will also examine the effect of market power (i.e. the lack of supply chain competition), and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience.
The project will, in collaboration with stakeholders, define a diverse set of shocks scenarios, and then simulate the impact of these using a novel model of the global food system. Compared to previous studies of the agricultural system this project will loosen the equilibrium market assumptions to better capture observed behaviours (e.g. non-equilibrium markets and governmental response behaviour), and will include a more accurate representation of spatial factors based on biophysical properties of yield, including the response to production intensification (i.e. fertilisation and irrigation). The impact of uncertainty will be assessed using a probabilistic approach (i.e. Monte Carlo). These advances will provide new insights into the dynamics of agricultural land use change, and the resilience of the UK food system.
The potential responses and actions applicable to industry, supply chain stakeholder, and policymakers, to increase the resilience of the UK food system will be considered, based on the model results. The project will also examine the effect of market power (i.e. the lack of supply chain competition), and the policy and regulatory environment in mitigating or increasing the UK food system's resilience.
Planned Impact
The project deliverables will provide impact and societal benefits by understanding UK food system vulnerability to global shocks, and identifying actions and polices that can be implemented to increase resilience. Lack of resilience in the food system is likely to increase food costs and compromise the activities of food producers in the UK supply chain, and ultimately lead to increasing food insecurity. Volatility in food prices or supply caused by global shocks can have negative outcomes for the UK food supply chain, e.g. changes in global market prices can impact the viability of sectors and force rapid changes in food production and processing. This is currently occurring in the UK dairy sector, triggered by lower commodity prices. The changes have knock-on effects from producers and processors, through to the economies of local communities. High food prices can also damage society, as seen in the 2007/08 price spike, by increasing the share of incomes required to purchase food, or influencing consumption patterns towards less healthy diets, i.e. away from fresh produce, particularly in lower income households. The project therefore aims to deliver societal impact by facilitating the increase in the UK food systems resilience, and by collaborating with stakeholders to identify interventions that can achieve this outcome. Policies and private sector actions will be identified to increase resilience either by reducing the volatility experienced by the UK food system to global shocks (i.e. mitigation actions), or alternatively by limiting the negative consequences from the implied volatility (i.e. adaptation). Work package deliverables will initially define shock storylines that have the potential to impact the UK food system, and will then use a model simulation to quantify the outcomes, and therefore the severity of the impacts from these shocks, to better understand the vulnerabilities.
To achieve the desired outcomes stakeholder engagement is embedded into the design of the overall project. A stakeholder group will take an integral role of in co-evolving knowledge over the life of the project, as well as helping to define and adjust the research. The stakeholders will be selected to guarantee a balanced composition of members between different groups with an interest and relevance for UK food system. This ensures that stakeholders across public sector, private supply chain, and non-governmental organisations will be involved. The stakeholders will therefore be ideally placed to benefit from and apply the lessons from the research, and provide a strong and clear pathway to impact, in policy and commercial spheres, as well as the third sector. Stakeholders that would be relevant to the aims and outcomes of the project include policymakers (e.g. DEFRA, FSA, Scottish Government, DECC, DTI, BIS), agricultural producers (e.g. NFU, NFUS), environmental organisations (e.g. CCC, WWF), consumer groups (e.g. UK Food Group), food banks (e.g. Trussell Trust), retailers (e.g. Tesco, M&S), food processors (e.g. Arla, Müller Wiseman), energy companies (e.g. E.ON), insurers (e.g. Lloyds), banking and finance (e.g. Black Rock, RBS), and international bodies (e.g. FAO, IPCC).
To achieve the desired outcomes stakeholder engagement is embedded into the design of the overall project. A stakeholder group will take an integral role of in co-evolving knowledge over the life of the project, as well as helping to define and adjust the research. The stakeholders will be selected to guarantee a balanced composition of members between different groups with an interest and relevance for UK food system. This ensures that stakeholders across public sector, private supply chain, and non-governmental organisations will be involved. The stakeholders will therefore be ideally placed to benefit from and apply the lessons from the research, and provide a strong and clear pathway to impact, in policy and commercial spheres, as well as the third sector. Stakeholders that would be relevant to the aims and outcomes of the project include policymakers (e.g. DEFRA, FSA, Scottish Government, DECC, DTI, BIS), agricultural producers (e.g. NFU, NFUS), environmental organisations (e.g. CCC, WWF), consumer groups (e.g. UK Food Group), food banks (e.g. Trussell Trust), retailers (e.g. Tesco, M&S), food processors (e.g. Arla, Müller Wiseman), energy companies (e.g. E.ON), insurers (e.g. Lloyds), banking and finance (e.g. Black Rock, RBS), and international bodies (e.g. FAO, IPCC).
Publications
Agnolucci P
(2020)
Impacts of rising temperatures and farm management practices on global yields of 18 crops.
in Nature food
Alexander P
(2017)
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system
Alexander P
(2023)
Mapping the shared socio-economic pathways onto the Nature Futures Framework at the global scale
in Sustainability Science
Alexander P
(2019)
Transforming agricultural land use through marginal gains in the food system
in Global Environmental Change
Alexander P
(2017)
Losses, inefficiencies and waste in the global food system.
in Agricultural systems
Alexander P
(2018)
Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide.
in Global change biology
Alexander P
(2017)
Rethinking food waste for a healthier planet.
in The Lancet. Planetary health
Description | A wide range of articles have been published on the global food systems response to a range of drivers and the multifaceted outcomes from these shifts. For example, the research quantified the impacts climate change scenarios on ecosystem service indicators such as the land carbon balance, runoff, and nitrogen pollution, and explore the impact of future changes in diet on habitat availability in biodiversity hotspots, as well as the reverse-looking at the food security implications of different land conservation scenario. The latest publication quantified the nutritional health outcomes globally from the war in Ukraine, suggesting 100 million people could be made undernourished as a result with 1 million additional deaths. |
Exploitation Route | Considerable novel modelling capacity has been development that can be utilised by other to address questions of global food system resilience to a wide range of shocks or trends. |
Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink Environment |
URL | https://www.rugs-project.uk/ |
Description | The findings of this project have been used by NGO (including Oxfam and Save the Children), and presented to multiple policymakers, as well as widely covered in the public media. |
First Year Of Impact | 2021 |
Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Impact Types | Societal Policy & public services |
Description | Citations in IPCC report on Special Report on Climate Change and Land |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Citation in systematic reviews |
URL | https://www.ipcc.ch/srccl/ |
Description | Written Evidence for Food, Poverty, Health and the Environment Committee, House of Lords |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
URL | https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/lords-select/food-pov-health-enviro-com... |
Title | Impacts_temperatures_global yields_up_to_2012_code+data |
Description | This repository contains the code and the data required to estimate the models presented in the paper Agnolucci, Rapti, Alexander, De Lipsis, Holland, Eigenbrod and Ekins (2020) Impacts of rising temperatures and farm management practices on global yields of 18 crops.
There are two sets of datasets: 1. those named as Yield.RData are used in the estimation of the selected models in "1 FinalModels - NatureFood.R" 2. those named as .RData are used in the production of Figure 2 carried out in "2 Figure 2.R". These figures also use inputs stored in three Excel spreadsheets: 1) crop_inputs_v3.xlsx; 2) Crop_ME_Malnourishment.xlsx; 3) Crop_yield_ME.xlsx |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2020 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
URL | https://rdr.ucl.ac.uk/articles/dataset/Impacts_temperatures_global_yields_up_to_2012_code_data/12768... |
Title | PLUM |
Description | Global land use and food security model |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Scientific papers on impact of climate change on land use adaptation and international trade. Considerable further work underway with scientific and policy relevance. |
Description | Global Food Security Food System Resilience program - Resilience concepts workshop |
Organisation | University of Oxford |
Department | Environmental Change Institute |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | As part of the Global Food Security Food System Resilience program, RUGS team members participated in a one-day workshop of resilience concepts. The workshop is leading to a co-authored article on resilience concepts and their use in researching food systems. |
Collaborator Contribution | Active participants in the workshop and contributed several sections to the draft paper. |
Impact | Draft paper underway. |
Start Year | 2017 |
Description | Contributing authors on IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Contributing Authors on IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land. This report received very substantial coverage in the media globally, and is an important policy document. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Interview for national radio |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | BBC Radio Scotland discussion on food security and migration in a changing climate |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2019 |
Description | Panel member and speaker at FAO/WHO Regional Symposium |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Invited panel member at FAO/WHO Regional Symposium - Sustainable Food Systems for Healthy Diets in Europe & Central Asia, Budapest, Hungary, 4-5 December 2017. Also presented "Losses and inefficiencies in the global food system" talk. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Presentation to Scottish Government at St. Andrews House, Edinburgh on 29 November 2017 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation to Scottish Government at St. Andrews House, Edinburgh titled "Resilience of the UK food system to Global Shocks", as part of a meeting on Global Food Securities Resilience programme. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Print and online media coverage of research findings on food system losses. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A magazine, newsletter or online publication |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
Results and Impact | Press coverage of research finding on losses and waste in the food system. Covered by 12 main-stream national media outlets, including the BBC, Daily Mail, The Sun, Daily Star, Metro, Scotsman, The Herald and I. This coverage stresses the importance of reducing over-consumption for environmental as well as health reasons. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
URL | http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-39028340 |
Description | Project stakeholder meeting (26th June 2018) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Stakeholder workshop with approximately 20 participants, to help shape scenarios considered in project. Workshop also reviewed and reflected on model results from the project to date. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |
Description | Project stakeholder meeting (2nd Sept 2020) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Interactive online stakeholder workshop to discuss food system resilience with approximately 30 participants from across stakeholder groups. The workshop included: - Simulated global shock impacts on the UK food system - how do they match stakeholder expectations? - Market power and food system resilience - what have we learned from COVID-19? - What actions, mechanisms and policies could increase UK food system resilience? See https://www.rugs-project.uk/rugs-blog/2020/11/10/rugs-online-workshop-2020 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020 |
Description | Several Blogposts on UK Food System Resilience Topics |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Several blogposts by members of the research team have been published on the project website and on University of Edinburgh blogs. Topics included food system vulnerabilities, resilience of global supply chains, COVID-19 and the UK food system, and market power. Titles include: - Resilience- yet another buzzword? - Why worry about UK food security? - Market Power and Food System Resilience - Supermarkets in Times of Crisis - De-globalising in response to COVID-19? - RUGS Online Workshop 2020 |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2020,2021 |
URL | https://www.rugs-project.uk/blogupdates |
Description | Stakeholder meeting in Edinburgh to define food system shocks (4 July 2017) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | The first stakeholder workshop for the RUGS project was held at the University of Edinburgh on the 4th July 2017 and involved discussing and generating plausible scenarios of shocks to the global food system with a diverse group of UK stakeholders. There were three main components to the workshop: · Identify triggers and trends that might impact on the UK food system · Identify diverse and interesting scenarios or introductory headlines · Chose 4 headlines to explore in more detail The aim of the workshop was to produce scenarios that can be explored using the project's land use and food system models, PLUMv2. The scenarios that have been developed are thought-provoking and diverse and bring up some interesting avenues to explore with the model. The discussions that took place during the workshop, the outputs that were produced and the feedback that was received will also will be used to inform the development of the PLUMv2 model. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2017 |
Description | Workshop with DEFRA and FSA (29th November 2018) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Workshop held at DEFRA, London with approximately 20 participants from both DEFRA and FSA. Presented and discussed project findings in some detail, and helped to set future project direction. Addition and on-going engagement with the project requested. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2018 |