Epidemiology and systems biology of farm animal diseases
Lead Research Organisation:
THE PIRBRIGHT INSTITUTE
Department Name: UNLISTED
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
Technical Summary
The work of the Mathematical Biology group (MBG) will focus on the epidemiology of farm animal diseases, with particular reference to bluetongue (BT) and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). The MBG will also develop collaborations in systems biology and provide support on mathematical and statistical issues within the Institute. Epidemiology of vector-borne diseases: The MBG will continue to lead work on the development of models for the spread and control of BT virus, but will also seek to extend these studies to other relevant virus and vector systems, for example, African horse sickness or West Nile Fever. Furthermore, we will use these models to investigate how the risk to the UK of vector-borne disease may be influenced by environmental change. Epidemiology of FMD: The MBG will develop models for the transmission of FMD virus (FMDV) within farms, which will link the results of transmission experiments with data on the contact structures for different livestock species within holdings to better understand the epidemiology of FMDV at the farm scale. We will also develop models for FMDV to inform both transmission risk (e.g. via airborne spread) and the impact of control.
Systems biology: Opportunities for developing projects in systems biology will be explored. Initially, this will involve studies of the dynamics of FMDV in the bovine epithelium, but, in collaboration with the Bioinformatics group, we will actively seek to instigate collaborations with experimental scientists working in the Avian and Livestock Infectious Diseases programmes. Consultancy and training: The MBG will provide consultancy and training in mathematical modelling and statistics, including: an advisory service to other groups in the Institute to ensure that external modelling collaborations are appropriate; statistical support in the Institute through the provision of ad hoc advice on experimental design and analysis; and formal and informal training for PhD students and staff.
Systems biology: Opportunities for developing projects in systems biology will be explored. Initially, this will involve studies of the dynamics of FMDV in the bovine epithelium, but, in collaboration with the Bioinformatics group, we will actively seek to instigate collaborations with experimental scientists working in the Avian and Livestock Infectious Diseases programmes. Consultancy and training: The MBG will provide consultancy and training in mathematical modelling and statistics, including: an advisory service to other groups in the Institute to ensure that external modelling collaborations are appropriate; statistical support in the Institute through the provision of ad hoc advice on experimental design and analysis; and formal and informal training for PhD students and staff.
Planned Impact
unavailable
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Simon Gubbins (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
Carpenter S
(2011)
Temperature dependence of the extrinsic incubation period of orbiviruses in Culicoides biting midges.
in PloS one
Carr BV
(2013)
CD4+ T-cell responses to foot-and-mouth disease virus in vaccinated cattle.
in The Journal of general virology
Charleston B
(2011)
Relationship between clinical signs and transmission of an infectious disease and the implications for control.
in Science (New York, N.Y.)
Gloster J
(2011)
Normal variation in thermal radiated temperature in cattle: implications for foot-and-mouth disease detection.
in BMC veterinary research
Grant CF
(2012)
Assessment of T-dependent and T-independent immune responses in cattle using a B cell ELISPOT assay.
in Veterinary research
Gubbins S
(2010)
The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review.
in Veterinary research
Li P
(2011)
In-vitro and in-vivo phenotype of type Asia 1 foot-and-mouth disease viruses utilizing two non-RGD receptor recognition sites.
in BMC microbiology
Napp S
(2011)
Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus overwintering by horizontal transmission: application to Germany.
in Veterinary research
| Description | Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD): A key objective for the project was to develop methods that would allow us to scale from transmission experiments carried out in containment facilities to the dynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) in cattle herds and sheep flocks (and, ultimately, to the regional level). To this end we developed a Bayesian framework to estimate transmission rates and latent, incubation and infectious periods using data from one-to-one challenge experiments. We also conducted observational studies on contacts between sheep. Results from these observational studies of physical contact were then incorporated into models for the transmission of infection within a flock. Vector-borne diseases: We developed a novel statistical methodology for estimating the relationship between temperature and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and applied it to both published and novel data on virus replication for three internationally important orbiviruses (African horse sickness virus (AHSV), bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV)) in their Culicoides vectors. Following on from earlier work on the risk of BTV in Great Britain (GB), we assessed the risk of African horse sickness (AHS) to GB using the basic reproduction number, R0. Estimates for each parameter which influences R0 were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. In addition, we accounted for the effects of temperature and seasonal variation in vector activity on R0. Within-host biology: We are developed a simple model to explore potential factors influencing why infection of some epithelial tissues with FMDV results in the lesions while others do not. The models allow us to screen hypotheses which can then be tested experimentally. We have also developed a mathematical model of the hypothesised immune response to vaccination in cattle, and used it to gain insight into the incompletely understood effect of single and repeat inoculations of differing dosage using vaccine formulations of different structural stability. |
| Exploitation Route | The epidemiological models developed in the project can be (and indeed are) used to inform policy makers and other stakeholders about potential disease control strategies. The improved parameter estimates help ensure the robustness of these models' predictions. |
| Sectors | Agriculture Food and Drink |
| Description | The epidemiological models developed in the project can be (and indeed are) used to inform policy makers and other stakeholders about potential disease control strategies. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2010 |
| Sector | Agriculture, Food and Drink |
| Impact Types | Societal Economic |
| Description | Advice on control of scrapie |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Membership of Defra TSE Research Advisory Group |
| Description | EFSA working group on Schmallenberg virus |
| Geographic Reach | Europe |
| Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
| Impact | Report for the European Commission on Schmallenberg virus and its potential spread and impact in the European Union |
| URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2012.2768 |
| Description | Lecture of dynamics of vector-borne diseases |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Two-hour lecture on the dynamics of vector-borne diseases as part of Part II Pathology: Dynamics of Infectious Diseases course at University of Cambridge |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2008,2009,2010,2011,2012,2013,2014,2015,2016,2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022 |
| Description | Statistics for Journalists |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | Yes |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Statistical training for journalists Improved understanding of statistics in general and science in particular for trainee and established journalists |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2012,2013 |