SWERVE - Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator

Lead Research Organisation: Newcastle University
Department Name: Civil Engineering and Geosciences

Abstract

There is now a broad scientific consensus that the global climate is changing in ways that are likely to have a large impact on our society and the natural environment over the coming decades. Global warming, and its impact on extreme weather events, may have a profound influence on the way we live in the future. Recent extreme weather events, such as the unusual number of hurricanes in the US 2005 hurricane season, the unprecedented flooding in central Europe insummer 2002, the tragic loss of life in the European heatwave the following summer, or the severity of flooding in the UK during autumn 2000, have been said to be a possible impact of global warming by the media. This has made us focus our attention on the possible impacts of future climate change on our society but most recent research has focussed on predictions of change in the future frequency and intensity of extreme weather events at a global or regional scale. However, to well-adapt our society to the future impacts of climate change and extreme weather events, we need to know how these events will affect local communities, how they may respond and what emergency and long term planning measures need to be undertaken to increase their resilience. The SWERVE (Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator) tool will examine these and other fundamental research questions through collaboration with other experts in the UK in an inter-disciplinary research programme called CREW: Community Resilience to Extreme Weather. SWERVE will use information from global climate models and a technique called downscaling to produce relevant information on extreme weather at the local, community level. This will allow us to estimate how often different types of extreme weather, such as floods, storms, drought, heatwaves, etc., may happen both now and in the future. It will also allow us to identify 'hotspots' of risk, where communities may be vulnerable to more than one type of extreme weather event, e.g. they may suffer from floods in the winter and drought in the summer. Using additional modelling tools we will be able to identify locations at risk from these types of extreme weather events down to the postcode level. This information will then be used together with information on our society to identify communities and locations that are particularly vulnerable. The overall output will be a toolkit that decision-makers can use when faced with planning and management decisions for coping with extreme weather events. This will increase the ability of the community to deal with the aftermath and to plan to reduce the impacts of extreme weather.The CREW programme will be a pilot study for a toolkit that could be produced across the UK. The pilot study will focus on the SE London Resilience Zone and engage stakeholders from this region and others across the UK in the development of the toolkit. This will ensure that it is what you and local emergency services, town planners and local government need. We will also look at whether the tool will be useful by applying it to some 'what-if?' cases together with local decision-makers and by testing it in local firms. This new toolkit can be used by managers to design systems that are robust to the impacts of climate change; climate change that, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's latest report in February this year, is very likely to be caused by human activities and is likely to cause an increase in extreme weather events.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description SWERVE sought to generate state-of-the-art simulations of weather-related hazards for the South East London Resilience Zone (SELRZ). The aim was to produce mapped hazard information to support decision-making by local community stakeholders including residents, local businesses and planners. SWERVE therefore successfully quantified:



•current hazards (using the 1961-90 climatological baseline);

•future hazards for two periods (the 2020s and 2050s). Stakeholders told us that projections for the near-future were most useful, however, projections for later decades provide challenges to stakeholders who have insufficient planning for changes in hazards in the medium- to long-term.



To achieve this SWERVE applied the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to consider hazards posed by:



•Temperature/heat

•Flooding

•Water resources (drought)

•Subsidence

•Wind



SWERVE invited stakeholders to identify the sort of information they considered to be of use and to indicate relevant thresholds for specific hazards e.g. London specific NHS heat-wave thresholds. Hazard information was also summarised in a combined hazard index to identify "hotspots" of change and serve as a locally-based communication tool. The project has therefore delivered a more extensive assessment of user-relevant hazards than has previously been undertaken on the city-scale.



SWERVE addressed the key issue of how to produce climate information at the level of detail needed to reliably model hazards and provide the information stakeholders need. UKCP09 provides climate model output at a resolution of 25km but this is not sufficient to reproduce important local scale variations in climate. SWERVE built upon the functionality of the UKCP09 weather generator (providing weather simulations at 5km detail) in unique and innovative ways to generate the information required for hazard modelling. For example, rainfall simulations were generated at 2km and 15 minute resolutions to provide the detail required for realistic simulations of urban flooding. Further, the rainfall simulations developed in SWERVE have a coherent spatial extent rather than providing information for individual grid cells as is the case with the standard UKCP09 output. This was important for assessing floods and drought.



The project also contributed to the effective use of UKCP09 output for climate change impacts assessments by developing a method for sampling the large number of future climate projections for practical use in hazard modelling. SWERVE further limited future hazard projections to representative "low", "medium" or "high" projections for each hazard. This presents the "probabilistic" hazard information derived from UKCP09 projections to stakeholders in a more readily interpretable format.



For the SELRZ SWERVE has highlighted:


•potentially large increases in future heat wave risk arising as a result of increases in temperature, future urban development and population growth;

•the area is well protected against tidal flooding;

•considerable uncertainty exists over the extent of future fluvial and pluvial flooding;

•water saving measures are likely to be required more frequently in the future in response to a combination of climate change and increased demand;

•vulnerability to clay-related soil subsidence is projected to increase in the southern part of the SELRZ;

•small changes in the occurrence of damaging winds are projected although uncertainties in the modelling of wind speeds are currently high.
Exploitation Route The methods developed and information provided by SWERVE could be used by a range of local stakeholders including local government, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and local residents. In addition to providing key messages on projected future local climate, by incorporating the outputs from SWERVE in a web-based mapping tool developed elsewhere in the CREW project, the outputs from SWERVE provide several opportunities for these groups.



Firstly, to target resources on "hotspot" areas for mitigation and adaptation. Information on local-scale variability in hazard occurrence could be incorporated into effective decision-making and policy-making. Examples of questions which stakeholder might be able to address include:



"As a registered social landlord how can I identify which of my existing housing stock will be most exposed to heatwaves as a consequence of climate change in order that I might prioritise which parts of my portfolio to adapt?"



"As a medium sized retail business how can I identify which of my outlets are most vulnerable to closure due to flooding? Are my key suppliers located in areas that are at a high risk of flooding?"



"As a local authority are we likely to face an increased requirement to assist in implementing emergency drought measures in the future?"



Secondly, the outputs could form a vital source of information to assist in changing community actions through various mediums such as increasing awareness and personal resilience. Typical questions might be:



"As a house buyer in the Croydon area how might I learn about future subsidence risk and factor that in to my buying decision?"



"Is my house likely to experience more storm damage in the future?"



Finally, the CREW/SWERVE framework could be used for city-wide studies in other regions. The project set out to develop existing weather generator approaches to produce spatially consistent catchment- and city-scale time simulations of current and future climate which could be used to simulate weather-related hazards and produce mapped indices of individual/combined hazard occurrence. Delivered through the web-based tool developed elsewhere in CREW the project's output could be put to wide use. The project has gained a high level of recognition through engagement with stakeholders such as the Greater London Authority, DEFRA, the Department for Communities and Local Government, Drain London and London boroughs through interest in, and contribution to the outputs. It has also engaged with the Adaptation and Resilience in a Changing Climate (ARCC) Coordination Network (ACN) and has presented work to members of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change. Interest in the outputs has also been expressed by representatives of the insurance industry. During the course of the project we have learned that there are significant barriers to the use of the project's outputs. In particular, there is a danger of widely available information creating areas of blight if they are perceived to be at greater risk. The implication of the availability and use of this data is an issue we feel needs to be further addressed if such outputs are to be fully exploited. Further, the limitation of the study area to only part of London may act to prevent its use at the city level. Further funding will be pursued in the future to investigate how the project outputs may be exploited however, links with the BIOPICCC (Built Infrastructure for Older People's Care in Conditions of Climate Change) project are currently being developed to incorporate our learning into the development of a toolkit for areas most affected by storms, floods and heat waves.



For the academic community further exploitation of results is planned through several additional peer-reviewed journal articles which are currently in preparation:



Barr S, Holderness T, Blenkinsop S, Ford A, Fowler HJ. High resolution probabilistic projections of future vulnerability to heat hazards in London. In preparation.



Burton A, Glenis V, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Chen AS, Djordjevic S, Kilsby CG. Stochastic rainfall modelling for the assessment of urban flood hazard in a changing climate. In preparation.



Chen AS, Djordjevi_ S, Burton A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Flood modelling and hazard assessment of extreme pluvial events in large urban areas. In preparation.



Emberson C, Hallett SH, Blenkinsop S. An index-based approach to mapping human vulnerability to extreme weather events. In preparation.



Walsh CL, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Burton A, Glenis V, Manning LJ, Kilsby CG. Use of probabilistic climate scenarios to assess water resources in the Thames catchment. In preparation for Water Resources Research.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Transport,Other

URL http://www.extreme-weather-impacts.net/twiki/bin/view
 
Description Climate change impacts assessments on the city scale have tended to focus on flooding and increased heat. SWERVE has provided a more extensive assessment of hazards than has previously been undertaken on the city-scale and therefore represents a testing ground for a more broad-based assessment of potential climate change impacts and its integration in the adaptation decision-making process. Hazards examined were flooding (tidal, fluvial and pluvial), heat, wind, subsidence and drought. To our knowledge this is the first attempt to examine future changes in risk of subsidence. The methods developed and information provided by SWERVE have been presented to decision-makers and planners including the Greater London Authority, DEFRA, the Department for Communities and Local Government, London Borough authorities, insurance companies and consultancies. The outputs could potentially be used to: 1) target resources on "hotspot" areas for mitigation and adaptation. Information on local-scale variability in hazard occurrence could be incorporated into effective policy-making; 2) form a vital source of information to assist in changing community actions through various mediums such as increasing awareness and personal resilience. A summary of the research has been produced and incorporated with other CREW project outputs into a brochure for distribution by the ARCC network. The project has built upon the UKCP09 weather generator to develop a version to simulate high resolution (up to 2 km and 15 minute) spatially coherent rainfall projections based on UKCP09. This provides the first UKCP09 high resolution projections needed for detailed urban flood modelling and the projection of future hazard. A method was also developed to sample the range of probabilistic projections provided by UKCP09. The research provides the ability to use projections from UKCP09 for high resolution modelling of current and future flood, providing detailed spatial representation of areas that are or will be at risk. Beneficiaries: Users of UKCP09 and urban flood modelling community will benefit from model development A framework was developed for the application of climate model projections to engineering methods used to estimate wind loading on proposed new buildings. This was adapted to provide projections of future wind storms that could potentially damage built stuctures. This work resulted in an updated technical note published by UKCIP and freely available on their website, describing how the wind data from the UKCP09 climate model experiments may be used. Maps of current and future vulnerability to damaging wind storms have been produced and a peer-reviewed journal article has been published. A hazard index analysis developed to assess urban flooding has been applied to the Taipei case study in the CORFU project for evaluating the flood impact to vulnerable groups.
Sector Cultural,Societal,Economic
Impact Types Societal,Economic

 
Description Invited Expert Reviewer, UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report 2016
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description ERC Consolidator's Award
Amount € 1,990,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 06/2014 
End 05/2019
 
Description ESSEM COST Action ES1102
Amount € 110,367 (EUR)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 01/2011 
End 12/2015
 
Description Enabling CLimate Information Services for Europe (ECLISE)
Amount £170,815 (GBP)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 03/2011 
End 04/2014
 
Description Enabling CLimate Information Services for Europe (ECLISE)
Amount £170,815 (GBP)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2011 
End 03/2015
 
Description Flood impact assessment in mega cities under urban sprawl and climate change
Amount £150,000 (GBP)
Organisation British Council 
Department Global Innovation Initiative grant
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2015 
End 03/2017
 
Description Managing climate risks in cities through optimised spatial planning
Amount £11,000 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 02/2011 
End 01/2014
 
Description New Partnership Program for the Connection to the Top Labs in the World
Amount NT$4,400,000 (TWD)
Organisation Ministry of Science and Technology, Taiwan 
Sector Public
Country Taiwan, Province of China
Start 09/2016 
End 08/2018
 
Description UK-China Urban Flooding Research Impact Programme
Amount £70,000 (GBP)
Organisation Royal Academy of Engineering 
Sector Learned Society
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2018 
End 04/2020
 
Description 2014-16 RS-NSC Development of real-time flash flood mapping and early warning system 
Organisation National Taiwan University
Department Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering
Country Taiwan, Province of China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The expertise that the Exeter has can help the NTU to develop the proposed system efficiently, which will can contribute to the Taiwanese government to identify the regions could be affected by flooding in advance. The authority can notify the residents and take emergency measures to mitigate the flood impacts more precisely.
Collaborator Contribution The challenging catchment and weather attributes in Taiwan provide an excellent case study to develop and test the real-time flood mapping model. Once the model is successfully applied to Taiwan, the system can be easily transplanted back to the UK because the natural environment is less critical than it is in Taiwan. This will improve the flood forecasting practice in the UK and reduce the flood impact.
Impact CWS and NTU had intense interactions under the international collaboration project. Dr Albert Chen visited NTU in August 2014 and worked with Prof Tsang-Jung Chang and Dr Chia-Ho Wang on flood modelling. Prof Slobodan Djordejvic visited NTU in November 2014 to discuss about further collaboration plans. Prof Tsang-Jung Chang, Prof Yih-Chi Tan and Dr Yong-Jun Lin visited CWS in February 2015 to present the research activities have done in Taiwan. In May 2015, Exeter PhD students Kimberly Bryan and Arshan Iqbal visited Taiwan and worked with NTU team on their research programmes. Dr Tsung-Yi Pan, Dr Kai-Yuan Ke and Dr Chia-Ho Wang visited Exeter in July 2015 to discuss with Dr Albert Chen about the modelling results. They also attended the GII kick-off workshop and shared their experiences about flood modelling. Exeter PhD students Miriam Garcia and James Webber also visited Taiwan and worked with NTU team on their research programmes in November 2015. A joint paper has been published on Journal of Hydrology as a result of the collaboration. Chang TJ, Wang CH, Chen AS. (2015) A novel approach to model dynamic flow interactions between storm sewer system and overland surface for different land covers in urban areas, Journal of Hydrology, 524, 622-679
Start Year 2014
 
Description 2015-17 RS-MOST Using Artificial Intelligence to Transform Radar Observations to Rainfall and Developing a flood routing System for Flash Flood 
Organisation Taiwan Typhoon Flood Research Institute
Country Taiwan, Province of China 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution The Exeter team has extensive experience on hydrology and hydraulic modelling, which will feed into the project for model development. Within the project, a more efficient flood forecasting will be achieved to identify the villages under flooding threats in advance. The authority can notify the residents and take emergency measures to mitigate the flood impacts more effectively.
Collaborator Contribution Flash floods in Taiwan are more violent than the ones in the UK due to the attributes of the environment. Taiwan has much higher intensity rainfall and steeper catchments such that the real time flood forecasting is more challenging. With the methodology developed in the study, the UK can improve the capacity for radar rainfall predictions and flash flood forecasting.
Impact Mutual visits between the TTFRI and CWS teams were made during the project. Dr Tsun-Huan Yang and Dr Lei Feng visited CWS in July 2015 to discuss about model development. They also participated the GII workshop and provided their experiences on climate change researches and flood modelling. Dr Albert Chen visited TTFRI in August 2015 to learn the details of case study area. Dr Sheng-Chi Yang visited CWS in September 2015 to seek for further application of CADDIES-2D model in real-time flood modelling and forecasting in Taiwan. Dr Andrew Duncan visited TTFRI and presented the RAPIDS model for flood forecasting on the International Workshop on Computation, Uncertainty and Risk Assessment in Hydroscience and Engineering, which was organised by TTFRI in November 2015. A joint paper has been submitted to Hydroinformatics 2016.
Start Year 2015
 
Description 2015-17 RS-NSFC Hydrodynamic analysis of urban features with physical and numerical experiments 
Organisation Tsinghua University China
Department Department of Hydraulic Engineering
Country China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The Centre for Water Systems (CWS) at the University of Exeter has developed a series of computer models (e.g. UIM and CADDIES-2D) to improve the performance of urban flood simulations. The UIM, output from SWERVE and SINATRA projects, introduces additional parameters in the coarse grid modelling to describe those features that affect the flood movement. To simulate the flooding more efficiently CADDIES-2D, output from CADDIES project, adopts simplified rules, which borrow ideas from a computer science field instead of solving hydraulic equations. CADDIES-2D also includes different hardware-based parallelising techniques that further accelerate the calculations. In the project, we aim to combine the strength of the UIM and the CADDIES-2D to develop a new model that can simulate urban flooding at large scale, from GII project, accurately and efficiently. The model will be applied to flood simulations in case study cities to identify the areas that are prone to flooding such that better adaptation measures can be developed to mitigate the flood risk.
Collaborator Contribution The Department of Hydraulic Engineering (DHE) at Tsinghua University has excellent facilities for physical hydraulic experiments. The laboratory has six flumes and one of them has been particular designed for flood simulations in urban environment. This provides a great chance to observe the flow dynamics influenced by different urban features. The observed data can then be used to calibrate and to validate the new model.
Impact Dr Di Zhang visited CWS in July 2015 to work with Dr Albert Chen and Dr Guangtao Fu on flood model development. The comparison of modelling results with lab experiments were also discussed. Dr Zhang also joined the GII workshop and discussed about possible model applications. A joint paper has been submitted to the Hydroinformtics 2016.
Start Year 2015
 
Description 2016 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México 
Organisation National Autonomous University of Mexico
Department School of Engineering
Country Mexico 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Flood modelling developed in SWERVE (UIM), CADDIES (CADDIES), SINATRA (UIM-SIPSON) and GII (large scale modelling) were applied to develop the collaboration ideas
Collaborator Contribution Flood modelling application in Mexico
Impact The partner is interested in the CADDIES 2D model that we have developed and the current studies that we are working on the GII project. The team attended the GII Orlando workshop and agreed to exchange their tools with us and will adopt the CADDIES 2D model and GII methodology for the case study in Mexico.
Start Year 2016
 
Description 2016 Visit to Hydrotech Research Institute (HRI), National Taiwan University (NTU) 
Organisation National Taiwan University
Country Taiwan, Province of China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Prof Dragan Savic, Prof David Butler and Dr Albert Chen visited HRI and presented the CWS's recent research projects, including SWERVE, CADDIES, SINATRA, GII, PEARL, EU-CIRCLE and RESCUUE, and seek for further collaboration opportunities.
Collaborator Contribution Prof Ming-Hsi Hsu, Prof Ke-Sheng Cheng and Dr Jing-Sung Lai presented the research in water engineering has been done in NTU.
Impact New proposal submitted to MOST Taiwan
Start Year 2010
 
Description 2016 Visit to National Science and Technology Research Centre for Disaster Reduction (NCDR) 
Organisation National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR)
Country Taiwan, Province of China 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Prof Dragan Savic, Prof David Butler and Dr Albert Chen visited NCDR Taiwan University and presented the CWS's recent research projects, including SWERVE, CADDIES, SINATRA, GII, PEARL, EU-CIRCLE and RESCUUE, and seek for further collaboration opportunities.
Collaborator Contribution Dr Wei-Sen Li, Dr Jiun-Huei Jang briefed the missions and tasks of NCDR and presented the emergency decision support system.
Impact N/A
Start Year 2010
 
Description Collaboration with ARCADIA project 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Department Arcadia Programme
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Although funded while SWERVE was active, the heat impact assessment in the ARCADIA project (part of the ARCC network) is drawing heavily on the weather generator heat hazard approach that has been employed in SWERVE. The new method developed in SWERVE uses high resolution satellite information to add fine scale detail to climate model temperature projections.
Start Year 2010
 
Description Flood impact assessment in mega cities under urban sprawl and climate change 
Organisation Tsinghua University China
Department Department of Hydraulic Engineering
Country China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution In the project, we aim to investigate the future flood impact as the consequence of the combination of urban development and climate change in three mega cities - London, New York and Beijing. Two of them are coastal cities facing sea level rise impact as well. An urban growth model will be developed using the satellite sensor data and the artificial intelligence techniques to detect the changing trends of urban sprawl and to project future urban growth scenarios in these three cities. The parameters derived from the urban growth model will be used in hydraulic modelling to assess the flood impact for the whole city in the 2050s. The state-of-the-art hydraulic models will be adopted to simulate flooding in complex urban environment with high spatial resolution. The multi-disciplinary collaboration will bring the experts from the UK, the US and China together to create an operational framework for analysing flood impact associated with various urban development conditions and climate change scenarios at the mega-city scale. The results can inform urban planners about the potential increase of flood risk such that better urban development strategies can be developed and implemented to avoid unexpected flood impact. The methodology developed from previous SWERVE, CADDIES and SINATRA projects were applied to the GII project.
Collaborator Contribution The Stormwater Management Academy (SMA) at UCF was founded in 2003. UCF researchers have recently developed the multitemporal change detection techniques for land use and land cover change assessment in fast growing urban regions (Chang et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2009; Gao et al., 2012), streamflow forecasting under climate change impact (Makkeasorn et al., 2008), and flood impact assessment (Kao and Chang, 2011; Sun et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2009) based on Copula-based flood frequency analysis, and pattern recognition via empirical orthogonal function. Furthermore, a suite of low impact development technologies have been developed by SMA and evaluated in the context of flood mitigation impact. All the models/methods can be transferred directly to other parts of the world in support of simulating urban growth and assessing flood risk. For example, as a Co-Principal Investigator, Prof Chang has been working with a research team at the University of Hong Kong to carry out a project titled "Developing a Sustainable Hong Kong through Low Impact Development: from Science to Innovation Policy." Prof Chang is also the Principal Investigator of the ongoing NOAA-funded project "Coupling Risk and Resilience Assessment for Networked Sustainable Drainage Systems in a Coastal City under Climate Change Impact. He has been leading national and international research projects of water resources systems analysis and environmental risk assessment for more than two decades. The knowledge and experience within the SMA will create a complementary effect to fast flood impact assessment model development for mega cities in the project. The Department of Hydraulic Engineering at THU has developed some process based numerical models for predicting flow, sediment and contaminant transport processes in inland and coastal waters. Prof Binliang Lin is a professor of the Hydro-environmental engineering program at THU. He has been involving in the development and applications of first principle physics-based numerical models for assessing the flood hazards to buildings and vehicles. He will contribute his experience to modelling the flash floods in ultra-urban region. Dr Jian Sun is a lecturer at THU. He has been working on numerical model simulations with the aid of physical experiments of urban flood flows in urban regions. He will contribute to the development of computer models for large scale urban flood predictions.
Impact The partnership will strengthen the networking among the UoE, UCF and THU. By working closely on the common problems that the three countries are facing, the team will develop a cohesive framework for assessing future flood impact in mega cities due to urban growth and climate change, which will contribute to better urban development strategies. The engagement will allow the partners across three countries to gain new knowledge and experience from each other in different social-cultural environments. We will arrange joint-dissemination of project knowledge in different national and international conferences and develop further research collaboration ideas for more new proposal submissions to several international programs, such as the Belmont Forum, HOROZON 2020, and the Lead Agency Initiative via NSF-EPSRC or NSF-NERC programs, to achieve a long-term sustainable partnership. The project outcome of this research will end up a possible book publication that may present the state-of-the-art flood impact assessment to the community.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Flood impact assessment in mega cities under urban sprawl and climate change 
Organisation University of Central Florida
Department Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution In the project, we aim to investigate the future flood impact as the consequence of the combination of urban development and climate change in three mega cities - London, New York and Beijing. Two of them are coastal cities facing sea level rise impact as well. An urban growth model will be developed using the satellite sensor data and the artificial intelligence techniques to detect the changing trends of urban sprawl and to project future urban growth scenarios in these three cities. The parameters derived from the urban growth model will be used in hydraulic modelling to assess the flood impact for the whole city in the 2050s. The state-of-the-art hydraulic models will be adopted to simulate flooding in complex urban environment with high spatial resolution. The multi-disciplinary collaboration will bring the experts from the UK, the US and China together to create an operational framework for analysing flood impact associated with various urban development conditions and climate change scenarios at the mega-city scale. The results can inform urban planners about the potential increase of flood risk such that better urban development strategies can be developed and implemented to avoid unexpected flood impact. The methodology developed from previous SWERVE, CADDIES and SINATRA projects were applied to the GII project.
Collaborator Contribution The Stormwater Management Academy (SMA) at UCF was founded in 2003. UCF researchers have recently developed the multitemporal change detection techniques for land use and land cover change assessment in fast growing urban regions (Chang et al., 2010; Chen et al., 2009; Gao et al., 2012), streamflow forecasting under climate change impact (Makkeasorn et al., 2008), and flood impact assessment (Kao and Chang, 2011; Sun et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2009) based on Copula-based flood frequency analysis, and pattern recognition via empirical orthogonal function. Furthermore, a suite of low impact development technologies have been developed by SMA and evaluated in the context of flood mitigation impact. All the models/methods can be transferred directly to other parts of the world in support of simulating urban growth and assessing flood risk. For example, as a Co-Principal Investigator, Prof Chang has been working with a research team at the University of Hong Kong to carry out a project titled "Developing a Sustainable Hong Kong through Low Impact Development: from Science to Innovation Policy." Prof Chang is also the Principal Investigator of the ongoing NOAA-funded project "Coupling Risk and Resilience Assessment for Networked Sustainable Drainage Systems in a Coastal City under Climate Change Impact. He has been leading national and international research projects of water resources systems analysis and environmental risk assessment for more than two decades. The knowledge and experience within the SMA will create a complementary effect to fast flood impact assessment model development for mega cities in the project. The Department of Hydraulic Engineering at THU has developed some process based numerical models for predicting flow, sediment and contaminant transport processes in inland and coastal waters. Prof Binliang Lin is a professor of the Hydro-environmental engineering program at THU. He has been involving in the development and applications of first principle physics-based numerical models for assessing the flood hazards to buildings and vehicles. He will contribute his experience to modelling the flash floods in ultra-urban region. Dr Jian Sun is a lecturer at THU. He has been working on numerical model simulations with the aid of physical experiments of urban flood flows in urban regions. He will contribute to the development of computer models for large scale urban flood predictions.
Impact The partnership will strengthen the networking among the UoE, UCF and THU. By working closely on the common problems that the three countries are facing, the team will develop a cohesive framework for assessing future flood impact in mega cities due to urban growth and climate change, which will contribute to better urban development strategies. The engagement will allow the partners across three countries to gain new knowledge and experience from each other in different social-cultural environments. We will arrange joint-dissemination of project knowledge in different national and international conferences and develop further research collaboration ideas for more new proposal submissions to several international programs, such as the Belmont Forum, HOROZON 2020, and the Lead Agency Initiative via NSF-EPSRC or NSF-NERC programs, to achieve a long-term sustainable partnership. The project outcome of this research will end up a possible book publication that may present the state-of-the-art flood impact assessment to the community.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Graduate KTA with Tees Valley Unlimited 
Organisation Tees Valley Unlimited
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Multiple 
PI Contribution The SWERVE heat methodology and work lead to a 10-week Graduate placement KTA with Tees Valley Unlimited to undertake a heat vulnerability and risk assessment for the Tees Valley boroughs. This resulted in a set of heat hazard and risk assessment spatial data-sets, a final report and a presentation to key members of Tees Valley unlimited.
Start Year 2011
 
Description Visiting Researcher at University of Messina 
Organisation University of Messina
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Prof Giuseppe Aronica at University of Messina invited Dr Albert Chen as a visiting researcher to collaborate with his research team for one month. The topics discussed include urban flood modelling that has been done in FRMRC/2, SINATRA and CADDIES.; flood risk assessment and resilience strategies done in CORFU and PEARL.
Collaborator Contribution The travel expenses and accommodation was covered by University of Messina.
Impact One paper for Urban Water Journal One paper for Flood Risk 2016
Start Year 2016
 
Description 18-19 April 2016 GII Beijing workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact GII team presented latest research progress and outcomes to the partners and stakeholders in Beijing.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://goo.gl/photos/sG1y5tBerBGk5e2k7
 
Description APCC-ASEAN Disaster Management Symposium 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The APCC-ASEAN Disaster Management Symposium was organised by the APEC Climate Center (APCC) and more than 50 delegates, including disaster management officials and experts, from Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, South Korea, Switzerland, Thailand, Vietnam, the UK and the US participated in the event. The topic was 'Promoting and supporting scientific and technical research that will inform disaster management practice and policy' and it included four sessions:
• Necessary bridging for successful Disaster Risk Reduction and Management
• Current Disaster Risk Reduction policy creation process and required research efforts
• Current Disaster Risk Reduction research efforts in the Asia-Pacific and processes for determining research topics
• Bridging the gap between science and policy together

Dr Chen presented the research findings from the related projects that the CWS has contributed to, including EU FP7 CORFU and PEARL, H2020 RESCCUE and EU-CIRCLE , EPSRC CADDIES, CREW/SWERVE, and FRMRC/FRMRC2, and British Council Global Innovation Initiative, to officials and experts in disaster management from ASEAN countries.
Dr Chen also shared the work in the ongoing NERC FFIR programme and discussed potential future research to help policy makers. The audience identified that flash flooding as a key area where better science and technology are desperately needed to support decision makings in hazard mitigation. Research outcomes from FFIR programme will benefit ASEAN countries in building the capacity of flood forecasting that consequently will enhance early warning and reduce flood damage.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.apcc21.org/notice/apccnewsView.do?lang=en&bbsId=BBSMSTR_000000000016&nttId=4906&pageIndex...
 
Description ARCC - CIBSE coordination meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Meeting hosted by Arup, London between ARCC representatives of ARCC projects and the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers to coordinate data needed for adapting buildings to climate change, the practical use of the data, including barriers and ways to overcome them and guidance on appropriate methodologies.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
 
Description Community Resilience to Extreme Weather - tools for improving the capacity for resilience of local communities to the impacts of future extreme weather events. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dissemination of project progress and results to ARCC Adapting our Built Environment Conference, 6 and 7 April 2011, St Catherine's College, Oxford.
.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Congrats to our #FloodHack winners: teams LIVE (1st), FloodIt (2nd) and Interception (3rd) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact #FloodHack organiser announced the winners
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://twitter.com/frathgeber/status/688836592040062976
 
Description Developments and challenges in applied urban and cities modelling 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation on innovation in modelling of urban heat effects and future projections.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Dissemination of flood research in Taiwan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The high resolution flood modelling work was discussed with researchers at the following institutions in Taiwan.



(1) August 2009, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan.

(2) August 2009, National Taiwan University, Taiwan.

(3) August 2010, National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan.

(4) August 2010, National Cheng-Kung University, Taiwan.
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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
 
Description Dr Chen as a keynote speaker and an expert in live debate at FloodExpo 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Dr Albert Chen was invited to give a keynote speech on flood modelling and risk assessment at FloodExpo 2017. The talk attracted over 100 audience, mainly from industry, and a series of questions regarding the methodology and applications were raised during the discussion. Dr Chen also participated in the expert panel live debate with over 50 attendees.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.thefloodexpo.co.uk/speakers/albert-s-chen/
 
Description Dr Chen presented on the China-UK Joint Workshop on Urban Flooding and Sponge Cities 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Chen presented flood modelling research outcome from CADDIES, GII and FFIR to over 50 audiences from the UK, China, Canada, Japan, South Korea and Sri Lanka. Intense discussion followed the presentation for the potential application of the methodologies in other countries.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Hamish Hall visited CWS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Dr Chen met Mr Hamish Hall at European Transportation Conference and invited him to give a seminar at University of Exeter. 30 academic and research students attended the seminar and discussed with Mr Hall about flood management.
Profs Savic, Djordjevic and Dr Chen shared with Mr Hall the research projects that CWS is involving and laboratory experiment.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description High resolution urban flood modelling. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Two lectures at the Global Education Programme on Sustainability/Survivability Science, Kyoto University, 30-31 May 2012 describing the work undertaken on urban flood modelling in SWERVE.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description High-resolution urban flood modelling 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited speaker at APEC Typhoon Symposium, Taipei, 4-6 June 2012 summarising developments in high resolution urban flood modelling.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Identifying and mapping future weather hazards for south-east London 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact First General Assembly meeting at Greenwich University, presenting the aims, objectives and scope of SWERVE and obtaining input into selection of events and thresholds from invited stakeholders.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
 
Description Interpreting climate change models and predicting the impact of Extreme Weather Events 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation workshop facilitator
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Summary of outputs and findings from SWERVE to stakeholders and academics at the CREW Project Final Assembly and Conference, RICS, London.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Mapping future hazards for south-east London 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Outline of the hazard mapping work to BIOPICCC project partners and stakeholders to assess potential future contribution to BIOPICCC project outputs.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Network Rail Drainage Challenges 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion with Network Rail and other academic colleagues regarding the drainage issues that require further research.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Overheating in Cities and Neighbourhoods 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Contributed to this ACN facilitated meeting at City Hall, London with the aim of drawing out clear, consistent messages from across the ACN research portfolio to inform decision makers with respect to overheating particularly at the neighbourhood and city level. This was a collaborative dissemination event with key stakeholders from the Greater London Authority, DEFRA and DCLG along with other ARCC projects working on overheating in cities.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Participating in Math Foresees workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Albert Chen was invited to attend in Math Foresees workshop and shared the research from SWERVE, CADDIES, and SINATRA with the participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Pluvial flood modelling and hazard assessment for large scale urban areas 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Conference presentation on innovations in high resolution flood modelling work. HIC 2012 - 10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics "Understanding Changing Climate and Environment and Finding Solutions", Hamburg, Germany.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Prof Dragan Savic as the Keynote Speaker at FloodExpo 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Prof Savic presented the key findings in urban flood modelling and 3D visualisation from CADDIES, GII, SINATRA, Serious Gaming, and SIM4NEXUS projects.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.thefloodexpo.co.uk/speakers/professor-dragan-savic/
 
Description RAEng Frontiers of Engineering for Development 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Albert Chen was invited to attend RAEng Frontiers of Engineering for Development and shared the research from SWERVE, CADDIES, SINATRA and GII with the participants. A joint proposal was submitted to RAEng, following the discussion with the participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Rainfall modelling for climate change impacts assessments 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation keynote/invited speaker
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation to a meeting of EU Working Group C in Warsaw on October 13th 2011, summarising developments in stochastic modelling of rainfall for climate change impacts assessments.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Research outcomes presented in postgraduate lectures 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Research outcomes and knowledge from SWERVE, SINATRA, CADDIES and GII projects were adopted in Water Management in Developing Countries lectures.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Research outcomes presented in undergraduate lectures 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Research knowledge and outcomes from SWERVE, SINATRA, CADDIES and GII projects are presented at Water Resources and Pollution Control
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator (SWERVE) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact CREW General Assembly to present progress to stakeholders and academics, and gain input on future directions and progress of research and research outputs. Held at UCL, London.

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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator (SWERVE) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact CREW 2nd General Assembly to present progress to stakeholders and academics, and gain input on future directions and progress of research and research outputs.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Sniffer - Climate Services: Developing the UK Community Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited to this workshop to discuss the 'climate services' community and the need to develop partnerships or networks to better deliver and engage in climate services initiatives in the UK and Europe. Consideration and discussion was given of how can we inform UK and European delivery of climate services and identify research needs, knowledge gaps and potential innovations in climate services. This was hosted by Sniffer, a registered charity delivering knowledge-based solutions to resilience and sustainability issues.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Talk at National Cheng-Kung University, Taiwan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk at National Cheng-Kung University, Taiwan on probabilistic flood projections
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Talk at National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk on probabilistic projections of flood hazards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Talk at at National Taiwan University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk at National Taiwan University on probabilistic flood projections.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description The integration of wind storm considerations into resilience modelling. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Description of an approach for incorporating engineering methodologies for the assessment of wind loading on structures into climate change impacts assessments.

N/A
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Tweets about research outcome 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Multiple tweets regarding the quick analysis for the Coverack flood event, it has received attention from consultancy company requesting for further collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=coverack%20from%3Aalbertchen_cws&src=typd
 
Description UFMRM WG webinar 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Albert Chen is coordinating Urban Flood Modelling and w
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
URL https://www.linkedin.com/groups/7405941/7405941-6257915019120517124
 
Description University of Exeter International Summer School 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact Around 30 international undergraduate students from a variety of backgrounds. Four hours lectures regarding flood modelling, risk assessment and management that raised intense discussions on the topics.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Urban Flood Modelling and Risk Management Working Group, IAHR/IWA Joint Committee on Hydroinformatics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Albert Chen's experience and knowledge from SWERVE, CADDIES, SINATRA and GII projects made him the coordinator of UFMRM WG.
The UFMRM WG is organisng monthly webinars to share the knowledge and research outcomes among the colleagues. These events have attracted global audiences and formed further collaborations.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017,2018
URL https://www.linkedin.com/groups/7405941