Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change
Lead Research Organisation:
Plymouth University
Department Name: Sch of Marine Science & Engineering
Abstract
This project introduces risk and risk acceptance into the discussion of adapting buildings to climate change. It develops an approach to quantify the risks posed by climate change to maintaining thermal building functions (health, productivity, energy efficiency). The research employs building performance simulation with uncertainty analysis to determine the probabilities and consequences of long term changes. To achieve this, simulation will propagate change scenarios which result from scientific projections. The resulting probabilities and consequences then are investigated in terms of risks and risk acceptance (in both the present and the future) by means of an expert panel with academic and industrial experts in facility management. Finally, the project looks at the prospects of interventions at a building (sub)system level to abate any unacceptable risks.The work is supported by a strong interdisciplinary link with the field of flood risk management.
Organisations
People |
ORCID iD |
| Pieter De Wilde (Principal Investigator) |
Publications
De Wilde P
(2011)
Longitudinal prediction of the operational energy use of buildings
in Building and Environment
De Wilde P
(2012)
The implications of a changing climate for buildings
in Building and Environment
De Wilde P
(2009)
Identification of key factors for uncertainty in the prediction of the thermal performance of an office building under climate change
in Building Simulation
De Wilde P
(2011)
Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies
in Energy and Buildings
De Wilde P
(2012)
Management of thermal performance risks in buildings subject to climate change
in Building and Environment
De Wilde P
(2010)
The role of adaptive thermal comfort in the prediction of the thermal performance of a modern mixed-mode office building in the UK under climate change
in Journal of Building Performance Simulation
De Wilde P
(2010)
Predicting the performance of an office under climate change: A study of metrics, sensitivity and zonal resolution
in Energy and Buildings
Tian W
(2011)
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of building performance using probabilistic climate projections: A UK case study
in Automation in Construction
Tian W
(2011)
Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections
in Journal of Building Performance Simulation
Tian W.
(2019)
Climate change risks in decision-making in building design and facilities management
in EG-ICE 2010 - 17th International Workshop on Intelligent Computing in Engineering
| Description | This project has investigated the risks that projected climate change poses to the thermal performance of buildings, and to their critical functions. The work took meteorological climate change predictions as a starting point, and used building performance simulation and uncertainty analysis to predict risk. Two climate change predictions were used: the UKCIP02 and UKCP09 datasets. In studying the future performance of buildings, the project also considered developments and uncertainties in technology, occupancy, intervention and renovation, and others. Thermal building simulation was carried out using various consecutive versions of the EnergyPlus program. Grid computing was used to process thousands of model variants, employing Monte Carlo approaches to cater for the relevant uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. A number of cases have been studied in order to explore the prospects of the quantification of said climate change risks: (1) Virtual reference office building, regularly used in similar studies (CIBSE TM36-O2 Reference Office) (2) University building at the authors' campus (an actual, real life case study) (3) E+ benchmark supermarket building (straightforward reference case for system degradation studies) (4) Home with heat pump and PV (domestic case with a state-of-the-art HVAC system). In terms of performance indicators used the focus in these studies is on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and overheating; however the project also looked at more complex issues like office work productivity. Analysis of these cases demonstrates that any prediction of the probable thermal building performance on the long timeframes inherent in climate change comes with very large uncertainties. This also illustrates that assessing the consequences of predicted change is problematic, since the functions that the building provides often are a moving target. The research concludes that quantification of the risks posed by climate change is possible, but only with many restrictions. In simple terms: predicting the impact of climate change on the performance of buildings is possible if one can assume that buildings will stay exactly as-is, both in terms of their systems configuration as well as their use. If one wants to include renovation scenarios and potential changes these uncertainties become dominant and make the usefulness of the predictions very limited. |
| Exploitation Route | The beneficiaries of the project are: 1. the general public in the UK, which is provided with actionable information on the risks and potential consequences of climate change induced shifts in energy use and thermal comfort in buildings. This information allows serious debate of the acceptability of such risks and consequences, and equips the general public with means to steer decision-makers to appropriate measures. 2. the UK construction industry, especially designers, engineers and facility managers, who are provided with a framework allowing them to balance current and future risks with a range of potential interventions. 3. the UK building science community, which gains scientific projections on the future operational conditions of buildings, approaches to account for complex change scenarios in building performance simulation, and the application of risk-based assessment to the field of thermal building performance. Explotation of research via building engineering and science community. such as CIBSE, RICS and others. Currently (2012) looking for follow up projects that can include direct consultancy as well as more traditional research routes such as RCUK and EU funding. |
| Sectors | Construction,Energy,Environment |
| Description | This research has helped establish the expertise of the PI in computational assessment of the energy performance of buildings and to enter into a Knowledge Transfer Partnership with company C3Resources (February 2010- April 2012), which has been externally assessed as 'outstanding' by the Technology Strategy Board KTP Assessment Panel, the result of which has been the company's increased growth and profitability. Follow-up research is now turning towards guiding occupant behaviour to reduce energy demand in buildings via the EPSRC 'eViz' project (2012-2015), and further investigation of the gap between predicted and measured building performance via a Royal Academy of Engineering and Leverhulme Trust Senior Research Fellowship (2012-2013). The research has already had some impact in raising awareness of the potential cost efficiencies and environmental benefits the 'eViz' project offers, evidenced by multiple partners from both industry and the not for profit sector having invested in the project with financial and /or in-kind contributions. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2010 |
| Sector | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy |
| Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |