COSMIC: Complexity in Spatial Dynamics

Lead Research Organisation: University College London
Department Name: Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis

Abstract

COSMIC (COmplexity in Spatial dynaMICs) is a proposal linking three research groups (Vrie University (VU) Amsterdam, UCL and National University of Ireland at Maynooth (NUIM)) dealing with urban science and geo-spatial analysis. The network will focus on urban dynamic processes using new bottom up, digital data collected for entire populations. We believe that such data will provide dramatically new insights into urban change which manifest themselves in often discontinuous forms which can be articulated using a variety of reaction-diffusion dynamics incorporating catastrophe, chaos, bifurcations, and phase transitions. In cities, such reactions range from the emergence of edge cities to patterns of residential segregation, embodying social exclusion in various forms. We first develop a typology of urban dynamic processes to guide the development of models using new digital data collected in real time from electronic transactions such as phone lines, electronic ticketing, and related geo-sensing. Our unifying focus will be on flow data associated with underlying networks with the models revolving around spatial interaction from labour markets to pedestrian movement. VU will explore methods for estimating dynamic models of labour markets in Germany and urban navigation in Amsterdam, UCL will develop models of movement and location from phone and ticketing data in London, while NUIM will explore movement in small scale environments represented at the building and streetscape scale in Dublin. The network will be supported by three major workshops, exchanges of researchers between sites, and strong external links to other groups, in anticipation that from this pilot project, a proposal for a much wider network will emerge.

Planned Impact

Dissemination of the Outcomes of Research: we will of course produce papers from the intended research and place these in both journals and conferences devoted to complexity such as ECCS10. We will seek to blend our written contributions across journals in our domain as well as those devoted to complexity so that we might progress these ideas into our own field as well as introducing other complexity scientists to the notion that the city is the exemplar par excellence for complexity science in general. We will engage one of assistants (at CASA-UCL) to develop a web presence to host our demonstrators which is the best way of reaching a wide audience of scientists and policy makers. Expected Exploitability of Results: exploitability relates directly to policy. Our three groups have very good track records in applying science to policy making. NCG-NUIM's StratAG project is centrally underpinned by various companies and agencies who have a direct interest in exploiting results from this style of work, particularly those dealing with mapping and navigation. CASA-UCL through its e-social science presence GENeSIS and its EPSRC SCALE and ENFOLD-ing projects have many stakeholders who are recipients of this type of knowledge, a good example of which is the Greater London Authority who support in kind much of our work. At VU, Nijkamp has many links with policy makers. His colleague Scholten who although not named in the proposal, is also involved in mobile technologies and GIS, and is himself a practitioner consultant. Dutch agencies have a long track record in the use of this kind of science in policy making. With respect to software and patenting, we consider this premature at the present time because the focus of this network is to produce a platform for the future by convincing others in Europe in the first instance of its relevance. Sustainability of the Collaboration (Forward Look): The investigators from the three groups have cooperated informally for many years through various forums, EU projects and through regional science and spatial analysis. We believe we have a very strong grouping that is resilient and an excellent basis for further extensions at the end of the project. For example, Medda and Reggiani both worked together in Italy and have also cooperated with Nijkamp at VU where Medda completed her doctorate writing many papers together. Wilson and Batty have been involved in the same field since the 1970s. Fotheringham and Batty worked together in the NCGIA at SUNY-Buffalo from 1990 to 1995. These provide good indicators of sustainability. The workshop events are absolutely essential to make this work.

Publications

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Batty M (2013) Sociology. A theory of city size. in Science (New York, N.Y.)

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Cheshire J (2012) Visualisation Tools for Understanding Big Data in Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design

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Edwards R (2015) City size: Spatial dynamics as temporal flows in Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space

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Zhong C (2015) Measuring variability of mobility patterns from multiday smart-card data in Journal of Computational Science

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Zhong C (2014) Inferring building functions from a probabilistic model using public transportation data in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems

 
Description This project enabled us to look at real time big data and we started our work on transport systems in real time in this project. In particular we looked the tube system in London and at various ways of developing new methods of showing its structure and the structure of passenger demand using the Oyster card data. We have many papers on this project which have all come after the project ended. VU Amsterdam and NUI Maynooth also had many complementary papers and we reported this to EPSRC and to NWO who ran the call.
Exploitation Route Our project is now looking at ways of developing comparative real time analysis of systems using Beijing and Singapore
Sectors Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Energy,Environment,Retail,Transport

 
Description Our work has supported urban simulation in the wider London region and has helped define resilience of large infrastructure projects COSMIC (COmplexity in Spatial dynaMICs) is a project linking three research groups (UCL (University College London), VU (Free University of Amsterdam) and NUIM (National University of Ireland at Maynooth) dealing with urban science and geospatial analysis. The network focuses on urban dynamic processes using new bottom up, digital data collected for entire populations. We believe that such data will provide dramatically new insights into urban change which manifest themselves in often discontinuous forms which can be articulated using a variety of reaction-diffusion dynamics incorporating catastrophe, chaos, bifurcations, and phase transitions. In cities, such reactions range from the emergence of edge cities to patterns of residential segregation, embodying social exclusion in various forms. We are developing a typology of urban dynamic processes to guide the development of models using new digital data collected in real time from electronic transactions such as phone lines, electronic ticketing, and related geo-sensing. Our unifying focus is on flow data associated with underlying networks with the models revolving around spatial interaction from labour markets to pedestrian movement. VU will explore methods for estimating dynamic models of labour markets in Germany, urban navigation in Amsterdam, and airline flows globally, UCL will develop models of movement and location from phone and ticketing data in London, as well as related cycle movements which are captured online while NUIM will explore movement in small scale environments represented at the building and streetscape scale in Dublin as well as journey to work patterns at the regional scale. The network has been supported by two major workshops with a final major conference planned for late September 2013 when the project formally ends. It has facilitated exchanges of researchers between sites, and strong external links to other groups, in anticipation that from this pilot project, a proposal for a much wider network will emerge., under Horizon 2020.
First Year Of Impact 2011
Sector Environment,Retail,Transport
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services