Multi-sectoral interactions in global energy end-use

Lead Research Organisation: University of Cambridge
Department Name: Land Economy

Abstract

This fellowship proposal is for the calculation of future scenarios of technological change and CO2 emissions in energy end-use, through the development of an interacting multi-sectoral family of theoretical and computational models of technology diffusion in energy end-use systems. The integration of this family of models into the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Model at the Global level (E3MG) will create the first global E3 model to consider simultaneously technology diffusion patterns, induced technological change in all sectors of energy use (transport, industry, end-use), natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.

The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.

Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors.

The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".

The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.

Planned Impact

The key impacts likely to result from this project concern UK and global evidence-based policy-making, providing a valuable contribution to the global knowledge pool upon which to ground decisions and improve the sustainability of global technology systems and economic development. Policy decisions however require public support, and thus an impact onto public understanding of the findings of this project is also sought.

The UK public sector will benefit directly from this research in its efforts to evaluate efficient greenhouse gas reduction pathways for its 2050 target, and in informing measures of reductions of energy consumption. Effectively, this will create the unique opportunity to study multi-sectoral interactions in energy consumption including technology diffusion and learning-by-doing concepts in all sectors of energy use, and changes in the efficiency of energy use generated by policy. This project will therefore provide a valuable contribution to the knowledge basis underlying CO2 emissions reduction measures in the UK, and could inform the 2050 pathways calculator of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in parallel to other models. Additionally, in collaboration with economists at 4CMR and Cambridge Econometrics, this project will enable to generate important insights on employment and economic growth impacts of investments in green technology for the UK, so-called 'green growth', in an international context, a contribution that is likely to be unique. Co-benefits of this research will emerge through additional insights for UK energy security associated with decarbonisation strategies.

Internationally, the impacts on policy, likely to originate from this research will occur through improving the information supplied to climate change policy-makers. Three areas could benefit from this research. Firstly, it can contribute to improving the current work on the creation of efficient global pathways to CO2 emissions reductions for instance in developing countries and emerging economies, or evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of existing policy decisions. Secondly, it can help determine strategies for reaching national energy security goals, in particular with respect to the transport sector and oil and gas supplies. Thirdly, in collaboration with other members of the Cambridge research group and with researchers in partner institutions such as the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, it can contribute significantly to the demonstration the global economic benefits of certain CO2 emissions reduction pathways through green growth as well as the avoidance of climate impacts.

Contacts have been established with key science advisors at the UK Committee on Climate Change and the Department for Energy and Climate Change. Additional interactions will be sought with key policy-makers at various governmental institutions such as the Department for Transport (DfT), as well as with representatives of the industry. The particular actors targeted will vary during the length of this project as the focus evolves. In addition to the groups named above, collaborations are sought with other energy research groups nationally and internationally who could advise and benefit from the development of methodology and theory in this project, such as the UCL Energy Institute (MARKAL model) and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change. Contacts have been established with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (MESSAGE model) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (IMAGE model).

Direct public engagement and outreach activities will also be undertaken, detailed in the section Pathways to Impact. An emphasis will be given to communicating clearly the difficulties encountered in the coordination of emissions reduction measures, an aspect which has been poorly covered due to the lack of public or media understanding of these particular issues.

Publications

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Holden P (2018) Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement in Nature Climate Change

 
Description Under this EPSRC fellowship I have developed the Future Technology Transformations (FTT) theoretical and computational modelling framework, which is designed for simulating the policy-induced future diffusion of new technologies in existing energy technology markets, for assessing the impact of climate change mitigation policies. The goal is to produce a set of quantitative tools that can be used to inform environmental policy-making. This work is on-going and is continuing now over two years beyond the end of this grant.

FTT:Power was further developed into a widely used electricity model, and been integrated to the workflow of the consultancy company Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. It is routinely used commercially for policy analysis to advise governments around the world on energy-economy-environment policy. Many consultancy projects have now been carried out with FTT, including for the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, and energy policy research groups in East-Asia. The model is now supplied as part of the commercial licensing of the economic model E3ME, but also open source/open access through the website of the University of Cambridge. This multiplies the policy impact of the FTT modelling framework many times over what I could initially achieve on my own (see Mercure et al. 2014, 2016).

For the development of FTT:Transport, a large database on vehicle sales in over 20 countries of the world including the UK was built. It shows different structures of vehicle markets across the world, and enabled us to devise a method to assess the effectiveness of emissions reduction policy in transport (Mercure & Lam 2015). FTT:Transport has proved more difficult to develop than planned: a need emerged for further research using methods of sociology on the drivers of choice for vehicle types and sizes, which is underway with a pilot side-project funded under the EPSRC ReCoVER project.

We have used this dataset to parameterise the decision-making structure of the new FTT:Transport model of technology diffusion in the transport sector. This model is completed and currently under a testing stage, and being integrated into the main workflow of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. We saw its first use in existing funded projects (DG ENER, Horizon 2020) at the beginning of 2016, in which FTT is featured as a key model enabling to win those bids. This led to the publication of two academic papers and a PhD thesis by a student I supervised. Two new FTT models have been created in my growing team of researchers, FTT:Heat for energy use in household heating, and FTT:Steel, for studying technological change in the iron and steel industry. FTT:Heat has been published in a report for the European Commission alongside policy recommendations.

The theoretical structure underpinning the FTT model has been significantly detailed both in a mathematical publication (Mercure 2015), and in an accessible form (Mercure et al. 2016). Further work in this direction is to be submitted for publication shortly.

The E3ME-FTT integrated model has been linked to a simulation of the carbon cycle and climate system in order to be able to follow the impacts of energy policy choices all the way to the detailed environmental impacts (Mercure et al. 2014, Mercure et al 2016, Mercure et al 2018 in press). This makes E3ME-FTT a new Integrated Assessment Model able to explore different questions, arguably the most advanced in its class worldwide. We have suggested a new approach for integrated science-policy interface for improving policy-making for sustainable development (Mercure et al. 2016). This method has brought me to bid for funds for expanding this method, which has been successful with the ESRC (Project no ES/N013174/1).

In 2017, we made an important discovery using this whole suite of models: financial assets in the form of fossil fuels are highly likely to become stranded (i.e. unused with loss of value), due to the ongoing trajectory of electrification of private road transportation, and renewables development, significantly decreasing the demand for fossil fuels. Stranded assets can take the form of physical capital (pipelines, tankers, drilling equipment) or financial (e.g. the value of oil reserves), currently valued in trillions of dollars. Such a loss is inevitable and comparable to the subprime mortgage loss in 2007 and could lead to a financial crisis; however it can be managed in order not to lead to an economic recession; we show that all major nations (e.g. USA) are nevertheless better off (in terms of GDP and employment) to stick to the current climate agreements rather than pulling out. This unexpected results is the real outcome of this project "Multi-Sectoral Interactions in Energy End-Use" as expected at the time of applying for the grant. This work was published in Nature Climate Change in June 2018 and was reported in most British media (BBC, The Guardian, The Times, The Daily Mail, etc) and abroad, and ranks amongst the papers with highest impact in Nature Climate Change. These findings led to obtaining further funding from NERC (NE/S017119/1) as part of the UK's climate resilience program.

Finally, the study of multi-sectoral interactions in energy end-use was finally completed and is under review at Nature Communications. What was found is that electrification of most applications in energy end-use does not strongly interact with energy policy for power generation, and thus can safely operate independently. Electrification of energy end-use is likely to increase emissions in almost no cases around the world. This was the initial research question driving this project. It was settled several years after the end of the funding, but is now fully completed.
Exploitation Route Our output model for passenger transport modelling is integrated to the E3ME model of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. E3ME is a well known policy analysis model used by various research groups and policy analysts around the world, as well as consultancy projects for the European Commission and other governments or institutions around the world (e.g. recently: the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, the Brazilian government, and more). The FTT modelling system is now, due to this fellowship, entirely part of this mainstream and widely used policy analysis tool, and enables to explore issues of energy-economy dynamics. E3ME is now called E3ME-FTT, and its FTT component is beginning to become known in policy analysis circles. That is due to a new string of papers published during this fellowship, not all written by myself. This indicates that it is seeing use beyond my own, which fulfils the goal of this project.

By 2017, this work has now opened two new research areas, (1) a new method to study policy-induced technology innovation, and (2) stranded fossil fuel assets and related socio-economic impact. We expect to obtain further research funding under both of these research areas.

The FTT model is now attracting significant numbers of policy analysis projects. During this fellowship, it has been used for energy policy analysis by researchers in a large consortium in East Asia by which a book was written (Lee, Pollitt and Park 2015), by OPEC, IRENA, the European Commission (DG ENER), Horizon 2020 projects and other consultancy projects.

Several PhD students and postdocs, as well as analysts in the private sector, are currently carrying out their research using the FTT or E3ME-FTT modelling suite. This will enable the community to grow and expand its realm of application. The structure of this project enables them to spend time in the consultancy world of Cambridge Econometrics, exposing them to the real world of policy-making and advising. This will further their careers either in academia or in the wider world. It also offers a strong bridge between Cambridge Econometrics and the academic world.
Sectors Education,Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice

 
Description The objective of the Future Technology Transformations (FTT) modelling framework produced through this project concerns providing analytical and computational tools for energy and environmental policy analysism and thus has direct impact outside of academia. Since this grant was a personal fellowship, its impact would not have been extensive if carried out by myself alone; it is thus clear that the use of FTT tools by others outside of my team was the pathway to successful impact. SMEs play an important role in the European policy sphere and beyond, providing fast and accessible analytical capacity for Impact Assessment to guide policy-making an important contributor to the European knowledge-based industry. In this respect, the consultancy company Cambridge Econometrics Ltd (CE) has proved a natural partner for the impact of this award: they have provided extensive networks for applying the results of this project for policy analysis by institutions and governments. CE has facilitated the application of results of this project for policy analysis in a wide range of applications by different stakeholders, including the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, researchers and governments in East-Asia and various Horizon 2020 bids and projects. Thus as a result of this project, CE, with its large team of policy analysts, now uses in its standard energy-economy analyses the FTT framework for energy policy analysis, in particular, in many projects in which I am not involved. Meanwhile, this project interacted with its other partner, the Committee on Climate Change, at various points in time. The FTT framework has been described very transparently in several journal publications (Mercure et al. 2014, 2016, 2018, Mercure 2015, 2018, Mercure & Lam 2015, 2018, Knobloch et al 2019), the key contributions having been made Open Access. Thus any other policy analyst outside of our cross-institutional team can use or reproduce the FTT model. This has opened many possibilities and interest from governments and institutions internationally for commissioned analyses. The FTT model unexpectedly became a very successful educational tool for teaching university students on energy modelling and environmental policy. Its accessible version with a graphical user interface is now being used at both Cambridge University and Radboud University, in class and as a policy analysis tool in post-graduate dissertations. It is open-source and widely accessible online. This project has attracted interest for application in large collaborations: I have been significantly involved in several Horizon 2020 bids. In this context, I organised a workshop in order to bring together academics, policy and consultancy, at Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge. This led to submitting a €5M Horizon 2020 bid, which I co-led, involving 21 research institutions across the globe. This large network has opened many opportunities, and ultimately led to the success of an ESRC bid, a multidisciplinary cross-institutional £800k project of which I am now PI (no ES/N013174/1). This involves engaging policy circles in Brazil on issues of the energy-water-food nexus. I am thus becoming a leader in coordinating multi-disciplinary research across borders, multiplying the impact of this fellowship. Immediately after the end of this fellowship, I accepted a post of Assistant Professor in Energy, Climate and Innovation at Radboud University in the Netherlands. By 2017, this work has led to opening new research areas and knowledge for and used by policy-makers, in (1) policy-induced energy innovation, as part of two successive €1M consultancy project with the European Commission (DG ENER), which has resulted with policy recommendations produced with the FTT model and and two Commission reports, and (2) a study on the global and regional impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets, published in Nature Climate Change. The latter was quoted widely in British media and abroad, and ranks amongst the papers with the highest impact of all papers of a similar age at Nature Climate Change. This study led our team to obtain further funding from NERC (NE/S017119/1) to study the financial impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets, in collaboration with the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and has attracted attention at DG ENER, the European Commission. It has been discussed in the Canadian Parliament and in various divestment campaigns.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Economic

 
Description Reports for the European Commission, DG ENERGY
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
URL https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling/macroeconomic-modelling
 
Description Consultancy for DG ENER
Amount € 100,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 11/2015 
End 11/2017
 
Description EPSRC ReCoVER
Amount £11,500 (GBP)
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2015 
End 04/2016
 
Description Horizon 2020, Sim4Nexus project
Amount € 200,000 (EUR)
Organisation European Commission 
Department Horizon 2020
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 06/2016 
End 06/2020
 
Description Newton Fund ESRC CONFAP BRIDGE project
Amount £600,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N013174/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Title Future Technology Transformations modelling framework 
Description This is a model of economic and technology development that can be used to assess the impact/effectiveness of technology policy, particularly relevant for studying energy systems, transport systems, environmental and climate policy. 
Type Of Material Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human 
Year Produced 2013 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This tool is now widely used for policy analysis purposes by the consulting company Cambridge Econometrics and by academic researchers. 
URL http://www.e3me.com
 
Title The E3ME-FTT-GENIE simlation-based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate policy 
Description Through a collaboration between the UK's open University, Cambridge University, Cambridge Econometrics and Radboud University (NL), a new integrated assessment model (IAM) for informing climate policy-making was developed, coordinated in large parts by myself as a result of my EPSRC fellowship. This model is arguably the most advanced in its category, since no other model is fully based on simulation and fully calibrated by observational data, while it has the highest resolution of all IAMs used by the international community (IPCC). This model is made of the FTT family of technology evolution models, the E3ME macroeconoemtric model, and the GENIE or GENIE-PLASIM carbon cycle and climate models of intermediate complexity. This makes our IAM the only fully dynamical simulation of human-environmental processes. 
Type Of Material Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Impacts are to be seen in the coming years. For now, it resulted in being invited to several Horizon 2020 consortia bidding for funds, and being included in the international climate change modelling community. This is very new, and therefore public information on this model is still scarce, however we have a new article in press fully describing this model, to appear in the journal Energy Strategy Reviews, while three submissions are under review in Nature Climate Change resulting from this work. 
 
Title FTT:Heat software 
Description This model enables to study the impacts of policies to reduce energy use and emissions for heating the household sector. This was commissioned by the European Commission (DG ENERGY), based on the FTT method developed as part of my EPSRC fellowship. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This led to the publication of a report for the European Commission, DG ENERGY, and will be used by the commission to inform policy-making for energy use in households. We already gave recommendations to the Commission in this report. 
URL https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling/macroeconomic-modelling
 
Title FTT:Power software 
Description The FTT:Power software simulates the development of the global electricity sector in 24 technologies for 21/53/59 regions of the world (in 3 usable versions). The model can be used either as integrated to the macroeconomic model E3ME used at Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, or as a standalone opensource software. The opensource software is often used for teaching/training purposes, as well as for policy-analysis. The E3ME-FTT version is widely used for policy analysis. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2013 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The model, in its integration to the workflow of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, has attracted significant attention in the policy modelling world, and its use has taken off. It is now attracting participation to numerous funding bids. In its opensource standalone form, the model has become primarily an educational institution, with a graphical user interface, for either training or teaching purposes. It has been used in several university courses and training workshops. 
 
Title FTT:Steel software 
Description This model analyses the options for emissions reductions in the iron & steel sector globally. This model was developed with support from NWO (the Dutch research council), for application to case studies in East Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China). 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The research is underway, impacts will arise later. 
 
Title FTT:Transport software 
Description Building on the success of FTT:Power, FTT:Transport follows the same concept. It is now available, is attracting attention, and will begin to be used for academic purposes shortly. I expect it to become used directly for policy analysis purposes shortly, and potentially for educational purposes as well. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact Cambridge Econometrics has been publicising its capacity, which has attracted attention from other research organisations. 
 
Title Vehicle market and transport emissions data 
Description Database of distributions of prices, engine size and emissions for over 20 countries of the world, built with the purpose of analysing vehicle choices by vehicle owners for devising better emissions reduction policies in the transport sector. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact This led to collaborative work with other research groups. The database is open access. 
 
Description A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy 
Organisation Cambridge Econometrics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University and Radboud University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (Radboud U.) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also contributed the method to dynamically combine the models.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics contributes a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes emulators of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTSem), of the carbon cycle (GENIEem) and of land use (LPJem). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2016.
Impact Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement. Work in this collaboration led us to submit three papers to Nature Climate Change, all of which have been sent for review, and one of which is about to be published.
Start Year 2015
 
Description A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy 
Organisation Open University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University and Radboud University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (Radboud U.) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also contributed the method to dynamically combine the models.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics contributes a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes emulators of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTSem), of the carbon cycle (GENIEem) and of land use (LPJem). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2016.
Impact Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement. Work in this collaboration led us to submit three papers to Nature Climate Change, all of which have been sent for review, and one of which is about to be published.
Start Year 2015
 
Description A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy 
Organisation Radboud University Nijmegen
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University and Radboud University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (Radboud U.) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also contributed the method to dynamically combine the models.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics contributes a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes emulators of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTSem), of the carbon cycle (GENIEem) and of land use (LPJem). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2016.
Impact Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement. Work in this collaboration led us to submit three papers to Nature Climate Change, all of which have been sent for review, and one of which is about to be published.
Start Year 2015
 
Description A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University and Radboud University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (Radboud U.) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also contributed the method to dynamically combine the models.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics contributes a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes emulators of the climate system (PLASIM-ENTSem), of the carbon cycle (GENIEem) and of land use (LPJem). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2016.
Impact Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement. Work in this collaboration led us to submit three papers to Nature Climate Change, all of which have been sent for review, and one of which is about to be published.
Start Year 2015
 
Description BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project 
Organisation Cambridge Econometrics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution My institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge) leads the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016.
Collaborator Contribution RU coordinates research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems
Impact The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. We have manuscripts submitted to journals. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science.
Start Year 2016
 
Description BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project 
Organisation Open University
Department Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution My institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge) leads the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016.
Collaborator Contribution RU coordinates research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems
Impact The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. We have manuscripts submitted to journals. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science.
Start Year 2016
 
Description BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project 
Organisation Radboud University Nijmegen
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution My institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge) leads the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016.
Collaborator Contribution RU coordinates research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems
Impact The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. We have manuscripts submitted to journals. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science.
Start Year 2016
 
Description BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Department Department of Land Economy
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution My institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge) leads the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016.
Collaborator Contribution RU coordinates research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems
Impact The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. We have manuscripts submitted to journals. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science.
Start Year 2016
 
Description BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project 
Organisation University of South Santa Catarina
Country Brazil 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution My institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge) leads the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016.
Collaborator Contribution RU coordinates research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems
Impact The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. We have manuscripts submitted to journals. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Consultancy with DG ENER 
Organisation Cambridge Econometrics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction
Impact I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Consultancy with DG ENER 
Organisation European Commission
Country European Union (EU) 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction
Impact I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Consultancy with DG ENER 
Organisation National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Country Greece 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction
Impact I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Consultancy with DG ENER 
Organisation Trinomics
PI Contribution I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy.
Collaborator Contribution Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction
Impact I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021.
Start Year 2015
 
Description REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies 
Organisation Cambridge Econometrics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months.
Collaborator Contribution This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year.
Impact The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters.
Start Year 2014
 
Description REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies 
Organisation Meijo University
Country Japan 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months.
Collaborator Contribution This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year.
Impact The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters.
Start Year 2014
 
Description REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies 
Organisation University of Kyoto
Country Japan 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months.
Collaborator Contribution This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year.
Impact The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters.
Start Year 2014
 
Description ReCoVER 
Organisation Radboud University Nijmegen
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport).
Collaborator Contribution UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets.
Impact We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year.
Start Year 2015
 
Description ReCoVER 
Organisation University of Cambridge
Department Department of Land Economy
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport).
Collaborator Contribution UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets.
Impact We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year.
Start Year 2015
 
Description ReCoVER 
Organisation University of East Anglia
Department School of Environmental Sciences UEA
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport).
Collaborator Contribution UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets.
Impact We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year.
Start Year 2015
 
Description Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium 
Organisation Cambridge Econometrics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis.
Collaborator Contribution This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus.
Impact The project is due to start on June 1st.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium 
Organisation University of Exeter
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis.
Collaborator Contribution This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus.
Impact The project is due to start on June 1st.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium 
Organisation University of Wageningen
Country Netherlands 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis.
Collaborator Contribution This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus.
Impact The project is due to start on June 1st.
Start Year 2016
 
Title Future Technology Transformations for the Power sector (FTT:Power) modelling framework 
Description FTT:Power is a simulation of the future technology composition, fuel use, investment and greenhouse gas emissions by the global electricity sector in 53/21 regions (E3ME/E3MG). 
IP Reference  
Protection Copyrighted (e.g. software)
Year Protection Granted 2013
Licensed Yes
Impact FTT:Power is a modelling framework and FORTRAN code that was built into the E3MG and E3ME software of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd by myself, freely supplied to them for their commercial use. On its own, it is an opensource software in Matlab. For Cambridge Econometrics, it is hard-linked to the economic simulation of the macroeconometric models E3MG and E3ME. Cambridge Econometrics now supplies FTT:Power as part of its commercial license of E3ME. It has been used for at least two commercial projects already. The first is for energy policy analysis of EU renewables targets by a consortium led by a German University (Leipzig). The second is for electricity policy analysis in East Asian countries (Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan), with emphasis on the nuclear situation, by a large Japanese research consortium, of which the output will be in the form of a book.
 
Title Future Technology Transformations (the FTT family of technology models) 
Description A simulation of technology diffusion in the global electricity, transport, household heating and steel sectors. This was integrated into the E3ME (www.e3me.com) macroeconometric model of the global economy of my industry partner Cambridge Econometrics. The FTT code was replicated into the FORTRAN code of E3ME. Its primary use is for impact assessment of electricity policy nationally for the whole world divided into 53 countries or regions. It evaluates global greenhouse gas emissions in these sectors, investment in plants and equipment, sectoral prices, fuel use and the costs of chosen energy policies. While this version is part of the commercial license of E3ME, an opensource version of each component of the FTT model family is available from our website, without E3ME. The opensource version of FTT:Power is currently being used for teaching with graduate students of the Department of Land Economy at the University of Cambridge and the Science, Management and Innovation masters program of Radboud University. Several masters theses were carried out using FTT software. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2013 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact The new combined version of E3ME-FTT was used commercially for the first time in late 2013. Since then it has been used extensively in a variety of projects of policy assessment in various countries (Germany, Japan, Korea, China), with and without my involvement. It took a life of its own. It is now contributing to informing policy-making (e.g. at DG ENERGY, European Commission). This model of diffusion of FTT software is a demonstration of practice where the policy impact of my work is ensured by my collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics. 
URL http://www.e3me.com
 
Description Conference (Florianopolis, Brazil) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This was a conference attracting academics, policy-makers (regional and national), students and the general public. The subject concerned the Energy-Water-Food nexus and the science-policy interface. This tool place in Florianopolis, South of Brazil. We engaged directly with policy-makers at the parliament of the State of Santa-Catarina and with regional policy-makers at the municipality.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Conference on the Energy-Water-Food Nexus 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Workshop in Florianopolis, Brazil, to inform on science and policy issues for the energy-water-food nexus. This targeted both academics in the field, as well as students, policy-makers, the general public and practitioners, who came from all over Brazil to participate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Presentation at the Department of Energy and Climate Change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation given in Whitehall, at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, to the Strategy and Evidence team then led by the Chief Scientific Advisor Prof David Mackay.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Seminar at DG ENERGY, European Commission 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact We described results of research on modelling policy-induced innovation to policy analysts and policy-makers at the European Commission.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Training course to Brazilians on energy-economic modelling 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Undergraduate students
Results and Impact This was a training course aimed at capacity building for modelling energy policy impacts using the FTT:Power model, with Brazilian students and researchers. We invited the Brazilians to travel to Cambridge, at two different dates, in June 2015 and December 2015. Both courses lasted for one week. It resulted in the capacity to use the Cambridge policy analysis tools at UNISUL in Brazil.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015