Multi-sectoral interactions in global energy end-use
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Cambridge
Department Name: Land Economy
Abstract
This fellowship proposal is for the calculation of future scenarios of technological change and CO2 emissions in energy end-use, through the development of an interacting multi-sectoral family of theoretical and computational models of technology diffusion in energy end-use systems. The integration of this family of models into the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Model at the Global level (E3MG) will create the first global E3 model to consider simultaneously technology diffusion patterns, induced technological change in all sectors of energy use (transport, industry, end-use), natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.
The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.
Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors.
The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".
The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.
The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.
Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors.
The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".
The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.
Planned Impact
The key impacts likely to result from this project concern UK and global evidence-based policy-making, providing a valuable contribution to the global knowledge pool upon which to ground decisions and improve the sustainability of global technology systems and economic development. Policy decisions however require public support, and thus an impact onto public understanding of the findings of this project is also sought.
The UK public sector will benefit directly from this research in its efforts to evaluate efficient greenhouse gas reduction pathways for its 2050 target, and in informing measures of reductions of energy consumption. Effectively, this will create the unique opportunity to study multi-sectoral interactions in energy consumption including technology diffusion and learning-by-doing concepts in all sectors of energy use, and changes in the efficiency of energy use generated by policy. This project will therefore provide a valuable contribution to the knowledge basis underlying CO2 emissions reduction measures in the UK, and could inform the 2050 pathways calculator of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in parallel to other models. Additionally, in collaboration with economists at 4CMR and Cambridge Econometrics, this project will enable to generate important insights on employment and economic growth impacts of investments in green technology for the UK, so-called 'green growth', in an international context, a contribution that is likely to be unique. Co-benefits of this research will emerge through additional insights for UK energy security associated with decarbonisation strategies.
Internationally, the impacts on policy, likely to originate from this research will occur through improving the information supplied to climate change policy-makers. Three areas could benefit from this research. Firstly, it can contribute to improving the current work on the creation of efficient global pathways to CO2 emissions reductions for instance in developing countries and emerging economies, or evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of existing policy decisions. Secondly, it can help determine strategies for reaching national energy security goals, in particular with respect to the transport sector and oil and gas supplies. Thirdly, in collaboration with other members of the Cambridge research group and with researchers in partner institutions such as the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, it can contribute significantly to the demonstration the global economic benefits of certain CO2 emissions reduction pathways through green growth as well as the avoidance of climate impacts.
Contacts have been established with key science advisors at the UK Committee on Climate Change and the Department for Energy and Climate Change. Additional interactions will be sought with key policy-makers at various governmental institutions such as the Department for Transport (DfT), as well as with representatives of the industry. The particular actors targeted will vary during the length of this project as the focus evolves. In addition to the groups named above, collaborations are sought with other energy research groups nationally and internationally who could advise and benefit from the development of methodology and theory in this project, such as the UCL Energy Institute (MARKAL model) and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change. Contacts have been established with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (MESSAGE model) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (IMAGE model).
Direct public engagement and outreach activities will also be undertaken, detailed in the section Pathways to Impact. An emphasis will be given to communicating clearly the difficulties encountered in the coordination of emissions reduction measures, an aspect which has been poorly covered due to the lack of public or media understanding of these particular issues.
The UK public sector will benefit directly from this research in its efforts to evaluate efficient greenhouse gas reduction pathways for its 2050 target, and in informing measures of reductions of energy consumption. Effectively, this will create the unique opportunity to study multi-sectoral interactions in energy consumption including technology diffusion and learning-by-doing concepts in all sectors of energy use, and changes in the efficiency of energy use generated by policy. This project will therefore provide a valuable contribution to the knowledge basis underlying CO2 emissions reduction measures in the UK, and could inform the 2050 pathways calculator of the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) in parallel to other models. Additionally, in collaboration with economists at 4CMR and Cambridge Econometrics, this project will enable to generate important insights on employment and economic growth impacts of investments in green technology for the UK, so-called 'green growth', in an international context, a contribution that is likely to be unique. Co-benefits of this research will emerge through additional insights for UK energy security associated with decarbonisation strategies.
Internationally, the impacts on policy, likely to originate from this research will occur through improving the information supplied to climate change policy-makers. Three areas could benefit from this research. Firstly, it can contribute to improving the current work on the creation of efficient global pathways to CO2 emissions reductions for instance in developing countries and emerging economies, or evaluate the efficiency and effectiveness of existing policy decisions. Secondly, it can help determine strategies for reaching national energy security goals, in particular with respect to the transport sector and oil and gas supplies. Thirdly, in collaboration with other members of the Cambridge research group and with researchers in partner institutions such as the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, it can contribute significantly to the demonstration the global economic benefits of certain CO2 emissions reduction pathways through green growth as well as the avoidance of climate impacts.
Contacts have been established with key science advisors at the UK Committee on Climate Change and the Department for Energy and Climate Change. Additional interactions will be sought with key policy-makers at various governmental institutions such as the Department for Transport (DfT), as well as with representatives of the industry. The particular actors targeted will vary during the length of this project as the focus evolves. In addition to the groups named above, collaborations are sought with other energy research groups nationally and internationally who could advise and benefit from the development of methodology and theory in this project, such as the UCL Energy Institute (MARKAL model) and the Grantham Institute for Climate Change. Contacts have been established with researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (MESSAGE model) and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (IMAGE model).
Direct public engagement and outreach activities will also be undertaken, detailed in the section Pathways to Impact. An emphasis will be given to communicating clearly the difficulties encountered in the coordination of emissions reduction measures, an aspect which has been poorly covered due to the lack of public or media understanding of these particular issues.
Organisations
- University of Cambridge (Lead Research Organisation)
- Meijo University (Collaboration)
- University of Kyoto (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE (Collaboration)
- University of East Anglia (Collaboration)
- UNIVERSITY OF EXETER (Collaboration)
- University of Southern Santa Catarina (Collaboration)
- Trinomics (Collaboration)
- The Open University (Collaboration)
- National Technical University of Athens, Greece (Collaboration)
- Radboud University Nijmegen (Collaboration)
- Cambridge Econometrics (Collaboration)
- Wageningen University & Research (Collaboration)
- European Commission (Collaboration)
- Committee on Climate Change (Project Partner)
- Cambridge Econometrics (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- University of East Anglia (Project Partner)
People |
ORCID iD |
Jean-Francois Mercure (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
Publications

Barker T
(2015)
GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap
in Climate Policy

Beerling DJ
(2020)
Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands.
in Nature


Foley A
(2016)
Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector
in Earth System Dynamics

Holden P
(2018)
Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement
in Nature Climate Change

Holden P
(2018)
Author Correction: Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement
in Nature Climate Change

Jean-Francois Mercure
(2017)
System Complexity and Policy Integration Challenges: the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food Nexus

Knobloch F
(2020)
Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time.
in Nature sustainability


Knobloch F
(2021)
FTT:Heat - A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector
in Energy Policy
Description | Under this EPSRC fellowship I have developed the Future Technology Transformations (FTT) theoretical and computational modelling framework, which is designed for simulating the policy-induced future diffusion of new technologies in existing energy technology markets, for assessing the impact of climate change mitigation policies. The goal is to produce a set of quantitative tools that can be used to inform environmental policy-making. This work is on-going and is continuing now over two years beyond the end of this grant. FTT:Power was further developed into a widely used electricity model, and been integrated to the workflow of the consultancy company Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. It is routinely used commercially for policy analysis to advise governments around the world on energy-economy-environment policy. Many consultancy projects have now been carried out with FTT, including for the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, and energy policy research groups in East-Asia. The model is now supplied as part of the commercial licensing of the economic model E3ME, but also open source/open access through the website of the University of Cambridge. This multiplies the policy impact of the FTT modelling framework many times over what I could initially achieve on my own (see Mercure et al. 2014, 2016). For the development of FTT:Transport, a large database on vehicle sales in over 20 countries of the world including the UK was built. It shows different structures of vehicle markets across the world, and enabled us to devise a method to assess the effectiveness of emissions reduction policy in transport (Mercure & Lam 2015). FTT:Transport has proved more difficult to develop than planned: a need emerged for further research using methods of sociology on the drivers of choice for vehicle types and sizes, which is underway with a pilot side-project funded under the EPSRC ReCoVER project. We have used this dataset to parameterise the decision-making structure of the new FTT:Transport model of technology diffusion in the transport sector. This model is completed and currently under a testing stage, and being integrated into the main workflow of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. We saw its first use in existing funded projects (DG ENER, Horizon 2020) at the beginning of 2016, in which FTT is featured as a key model enabling to win those bids. This led to the publication of two academic papers and a PhD thesis by a student I supervised. Two new FTT models have been created in my growing team of researchers, FTT:Heat for energy use in household heating, and FTT:Steel, for studying technological change in the iron and steel industry. FTT:Heat has been published in a report for the European Commission alongside policy recommendations. The theoretical structure underpinning the FTT model has been significantly detailed both in a mathematical publication (Mercure 2015), and in an accessible form (Mercure et al. 2016). Further work in this direction is to be submitted for publication shortly. The E3ME-FTT integrated model has been linked to a simulation of the carbon cycle and climate system in order to be able to follow the impacts of energy policy choices all the way to the detailed environmental impacts (Mercure et al. 2014, Mercure et al 2016, Mercure et al 2018 in press). This makes E3ME-FTT a new Integrated Assessment Model able to explore different questions, arguably the most advanced in its class worldwide. We have suggested a new approach for integrated science-policy interface for improving policy-making for sustainable development (Mercure et al. 2016). This method has brought me to bid for funds for expanding this method, which has been successful with the ESRC (Project no ES/N013174/1). In 2017, we made an important discovery using this whole suite of models: financial assets in the form of fossil fuels are highly likely to become stranded (i.e. unused with loss of value), due to the ongoing trajectory of electrification of private road transportation, and renewables development, significantly decreasing the demand for fossil fuels. Stranded assets can take the form of physical capital (pipelines, tankers, drilling equipment) or financial (e.g. the value of oil reserves), currently valued in trillions of dollars. Such a loss is inevitable and comparable to the subprime mortgage loss in 2007 and could lead to a financial crisis; however it can be managed in order not to lead to an economic recession; we show that all major nations (e.g. USA) are nevertheless better off (in terms of GDP and employment) to stick to the current climate agreements rather than pulling out. This unexpected results is the real outcome of this project "Multi-Sectoral Interactions in Energy End-Use" as expected at the time of applying for the grant. This work was published in Nature Climate Change in June 2018 and was reported in most British media (BBC, The Guardian, The Times, The Daily Mail, etc) and abroad, and ranks amongst the papers with highest impact in Nature Climate Change. These findings led to obtaining further funding from NERC (NE/S017119/1) as part of the UK's climate resilience program. The study of multi-sectoral interactions in energy end-use was finally completed and was published in Nature Sustainability. What was found is that electrification of most applications in energy end-use does not strongly interact with energy policy for power generation, and thus can safely operate independently. Electrification of energy end-use is likely to increase emissions in almost no cases around the world. This was the initial research question driving this project. It was settled several years after the end of the funding, but is now fully completed. This article has attracted over 100 mentions in media and newspapers and remains mentioned approximately once a day on Twitter since its publication in 2019. Lastly, the model and thinking for informing policy has attracted the attention of UK policy-makers (Mercure et al 2016), who as a result put out for tender a £3M project, which I won and now coordinate, to develop a new method for policy appraisal in a rapid low-carbon transition. This work is now having important impact in UK government and in governments in India, China and Brazil. |
Exploitation Route | Our output model for passenger transport modelling is integrated to the E3ME model of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd. E3ME is a well known policy analysis model used by various research groups and policy analysts around the world, as well as consultancy projects for the European Commission and other governments or institutions around the world (e.g. recently: the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, the Brazilian government, and more). The FTT modelling system is now, due to this fellowship, entirely part of this mainstream and widely used policy analysis tool, and enables to explore issues of energy-economy dynamics. E3ME is now called E3ME-FTT, and its FTT component is beginning to become known in policy analysis circles. That is due to a new string of papers published during this fellowship, not all written by myself. This indicates that it is seeing use beyond my own, which fulfils the goal of this project. By 2017, this work has now opened two new research areas, (1) a new method to study policy-induced technology innovation, and (2) stranded fossil fuel assets and related socio-economic impact. We expect to obtain further research funding under both of these research areas. The FTT model is now attracting significant numbers of policy analysis projects. During this fellowship, it has been used for energy policy analysis by researchers in a large consortium in East Asia by which a book was written (Lee, Pollitt and Park 2015), by OPEC, IRENA, the European Commission (DG ENER), Horizon 2020 projects and other consultancy projects. Several PhD students and postdocs, as well as analysts in the private sector, are currently carrying out their research using the FTT or E3ME-FTT modelling suite. This will enable the community to grow and expand its realm of application. The structure of this project enables them to spend time in the consultancy world of Cambridge Econometrics, exposing them to the real world of policy-making and advising. This will further their careers either in academia or in the wider world. It also offers a strong bridge between Cambridge Econometrics and the academic world. |
Sectors | Education Energy Environment Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | The objective of the Future Technology Transformations (FTT) modelling framework produced through this project concerns providing analytical and computational tools for energy and environmental policy analysism and thus has direct impact outside of academia. Since this grant was a personal fellowship, its impact would not have been extensive if carried out by myself alone; it is thus clear that the use of FTT tools by others outside of my team was the pathway to successful impact. SMEs play an important role in the European policy sphere and beyond, providing fast and accessible analytical capacity for Impact Assessment to guide policy-making an important contributor to the European knowledge-based industry. In this respect, the consultancy company Cambridge Econometrics Ltd (CE) has proved a natural partner for the impact of this award: they have provided extensive networks for applying the results of this project for policy analysis by institutions and governments. CE has facilitated the application of results of this project for policy analysis in a wide range of applications by different stakeholders, including the European Commission, OPEC, IRENA, researchers and governments in East-Asia and various Horizon 2020 bids and projects. Thus as a result of this project, CE, with its large team of policy analysts, now uses in its standard energy-economy analyses the FTT framework for energy policy analysis, in particular, in many projects in which I am not involved. Meanwhile, this project interacted with its other partner, the Committee on Climate Change, at various points in time. The FTT framework has been described very transparently in several journal publications (Mercure et al. 2014, 2016, 2018, Mercure 2015, 2018, Mercure & Lam 2015, 2018, Knobloch et al 2019), the key contributions having been made Open Access. Thus any other policy analyst outside of our cross-institutional team can use or reproduce the FTT model. This has opened many possibilities and interest from governments and institutions internationally for commissioned analyses. The FTT model unexpectedly became a very successful educational tool for teaching university students on energy modelling and environmental policy. Its accessible version with a graphical user interface is now being used at both Cambridge University and Radboud University, in class and as a policy analysis tool in post-graduate dissertations. It is open-source and widely accessible online. This project has attracted interest for application in large collaborations: I have been significantly involved in several Horizon 2020 bids. In this context, I organised a workshop in order to bring together academics, policy and consultancy, at Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge. This led to submitting a €5M Horizon 2020 bid, which I co-led, involving 21 research institutions across the globe. This large network has opened many opportunities, and ultimately led to the success of an ESRC bid, a multidisciplinary cross-institutional £800k project of which I am now PI (no ES/N013174/1). This involves engaging policy circles in Brazil on issues of the energy-water-food nexus. I am thus becoming a leader in coordinating multi-disciplinary research across borders, multiplying the impact of this fellowship. Immediately after the end of this fellowship, I accepted a post of Assistant Professor in Energy, Climate and Innovation at Radboud University in the Netherlands. By 2017, this work has led to opening new research areas and knowledge for and used by policy-makers, in (1) policy-induced energy innovation, as part of two successive €1M consultancy project with the European Commission (DG ENER), which has resulted with policy recommendations produced with the FTT model and and two Commission reports, and (2) a study on the global and regional impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets, published in Nature Climate Change. The latter was quoted widely in British media and abroad, and ranks amongst the papers with the highest impact of all papers of a similar age at Nature Climate Change. This study led our team to obtain further funding from NERC (NE/S017119/1) to study the financial impacts of stranded fossil fuel assets, in collaboration with the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, and has attracted attention at DG ENER, the European Commission. It has been discussed in the Canadian Parliament and in various divestment campaigns. Lastly, the model and thinking for informing policy has attracted the attention of UK policy-makers (Mercure et al 2016), who commissioned a consortium that I coordinate to develop a new method for policy appraisal in a rapid low-carbon transition. This work is now having important impact in UK government and in governments in India, China and Brazil. |
First Year Of Impact | 2013 |
Sector | Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Energy,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Economic Policy & public services |
Description | Evidence for the Green Book Review |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Impact | I contributed evidence to the consultation regarding creating a definition for policy problems of 'transformational change' to be included in the UK's guidelines for policy appraisal (the Green Book). The guidelines have been amended to add this definition. |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/final-report-of-the-2020-green-book-review |
Description | Reports for the European Commission, DG ENERGY |
Geographic Reach | Europe |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
URL | https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling/macroeconomic-modelling |
Description | Research strategy Bank of England |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
Impact | The published evidence that we contributed to the Bank of England has been used as part of the evidence base that drives the development of a policy to manage low-carbon transition risks for the UK's financial system. |
Description | Strategy for policy appraisal |
Geographic Reach | Multiple continents/international |
Policy Influence Type | Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health |
Impact | A paper I led (Mercure et al 2016 Global Environmental Change) has influenced thinking at the UK government (BEIS, Cabinet Office) and has led to the creation of a funding opportunity from BEIS and CIFF for studying the way in which policy appraisal takes place in the UK, China, India and Brazil. I coordinate the research on the basis of that funding, in close cooperation with UK government. The project is in the process of potentially transforming how policy appraisal is done in several countries. |
URL | http://www.eeist.co.uk |
Description | (NAVIGATE) - Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making |
Amount | € 6,998,343 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 821124 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 08/2019 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | BRIDGE - Building Resilience In a Dynamic Global Economy: Complexity across scales in the Food-Water-Energy Nexus |
Amount | £578,903 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/N013174/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2016 |
End | 03/2020 |
Description | Consultancy for DG ENER |
Amount | € 100,000 (EUR) |
Organisation | European Commission |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 11/2015 |
End | 11/2017 |
Description | EPSRC ReCoVER |
Amount | £11,500 (GBP) |
Organisation | Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 11/2015 |
End | 04/2016 |
Description | Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (BEIS) |
Amount | £3,000,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 07/2023 |
Description | Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (CIFF) |
Amount | $1,000,000 (USD) |
Organisation | Children's Investment Fund Foundation |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 07/2021 |
Description | Financial risk and the impact of climate change |
Amount | £226,001 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/S017119/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2019 |
End | 12/2020 |
Description | Horizon 2020, Sim4Nexus project |
Amount | € 200,000 (EUR) |
Funding ID | 689150 |
Organisation | European Commission |
Department | Horizon 2020 |
Sector | Public |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Start | 05/2016 |
End | 06/2020 |
Description | Plausible policy pathways to Paris |
Amount | £112,753 (GBP) |
Funding ID | NE/P015093/1 |
Organisation | Natural Environment Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 09/2016 |
End | 07/2018 |
Title | Future Technology Transformations modelling framework |
Description | This is a model of economic and technology development that can be used to assess the impact/effectiveness of technology policy, particularly relevant for studying energy systems, transport systems, environmental and climate policy. |
Type Of Material | Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This tool is now widely used for policy analysis purposes by the consulting company Cambridge Econometrics and by academic researchers. |
URL | http://www.e3me.com |
Title | The E3ME-FTT-GENIE simlation-based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate policy |
Description | Through a collaboration between the UK's open University, Cambridge University, Cambridge Econometrics and Radboud University (NL), a new integrated assessment model (IAM) for informing climate policy-making was developed, coordinated in large parts by myself as a result of my EPSRC fellowship. This model is arguably the most advanced in its category, since no other model is fully based on simulation and fully calibrated by observational data, while it has the highest resolution of all IAMs used by the international community (IPCC). This model is made of the FTT family of technology evolution models, the E3ME macroeconoemtric model, and the GENIE or GENIE-PLASIM carbon cycle and climate models of intermediate complexity. This makes our IAM the only fully dynamical simulation of human-environmental processes. |
Type Of Material | Model of mechanisms or symptoms - human |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Impacts are to be seen in the coming years. For now, it resulted in being invited to several Horizon 2020 consortia bidding for funds, and being included in the international climate change modelling community. This is very new, and therefore public information on this model is still scarce, however we have a new article in press fully describing this model, to appear in the journal Energy Strategy Reviews, while three submissions are under review in Nature Climate Change resulting from this work. |
Title | FTT:Heat software |
Description | This model enables to study the impacts of policies to reduce energy use and emissions for heating the household sector. This was commissioned by the European Commission (DG ENERGY), based on the FTT method developed as part of my EPSRC fellowship. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This led to the publication of a report for the European Commission, DG ENERGY, and will be used by the commission to inform policy-making for energy use in households. We already gave recommendations to the Commission in this report. |
URL | https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/data-analysis/energy-modelling/macroeconomic-modelling |
Title | FTT:Power software |
Description | The FTT:Power software simulates the development of the global electricity sector in 24 technologies for 21/53/59 regions of the world (in 3 usable versions). The model can be used either as integrated to the macroeconomic model E3ME used at Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, or as a standalone opensource software. The opensource software is often used for teaching/training purposes, as well as for policy-analysis. The E3ME-FTT version is widely used for policy analysis. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The model, in its integration to the workflow of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, has attracted significant attention in the policy modelling world, and its use has taken off. It is now attracting participation to numerous funding bids. In its opensource standalone form, the model has become primarily an educational institution, with a graphical user interface, for either training or teaching purposes. It has been used in several university courses and training workshops. |
Title | FTT:Steel software |
Description | This model analyses the options for emissions reductions in the iron & steel sector globally. This model was developed with support from NWO (the Dutch research council), for application to case studies in East Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan and China). |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2018 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The research is underway, impacts will arise later. |
Title | FTT:Transport software |
Description | Building on the success of FTT:Power, FTT:Transport follows the same concept. It is now available, is attracting attention, and will begin to be used for academic purposes shortly. I expect it to become used directly for policy analysis purposes shortly, and potentially for educational purposes as well. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2015 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | Cambridge Econometrics has been publicising its capacity, which has attracted attention from other research organisations. |
Title | Vehicle market and transport emissions data |
Description | Database of distributions of prices, engine size and emissions for over 20 countries of the world, built with the purpose of analysing vehicle choices by vehicle owners for devising better emissions reduction policies in the transport sector. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2015 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This led to collaborative work with other research groups. The database is open access. |
Description | A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy |
Organisation | Cambridge Econometrics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (U. Exeter) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also coordinated creating the method to dynamically combine the models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Exeter contribute a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes models of the climate system (PLASIM) and of the carbon cycle (GENIE). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2018 in Energy Strategy Reviews. |
Impact | Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, followed by another £250k grant to study the ownership of low-carbon transition financial risk. Work in this collaboration led us to publish two papers in Nature Climate Change, and one in Nature Energy (in last stages of review). The consortium later coordinated and won a bid for £4.8M of funds from BEIS and CIFF (the Children's Investment Fund Foundation) on the basis of the 2016 paper in Global Environmental Change, working with officials from UK government and governments in China, India and Brazil. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy |
Organisation | Open University |
Department | Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (U. Exeter) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also coordinated creating the method to dynamically combine the models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Exeter contribute a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes models of the climate system (PLASIM) and of the carbon cycle (GENIE). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2018 in Energy Strategy Reviews. |
Impact | Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, followed by another £250k grant to study the ownership of low-carbon transition financial risk. Work in this collaboration led us to publish two papers in Nature Climate Change, and one in Nature Energy (in last stages of review). The consortium later coordinated and won a bid for £4.8M of funds from BEIS and CIFF (the Children's Investment Fund Foundation) on the basis of the 2016 paper in Global Environmental Change, working with officials from UK government and governments in China, India and Brazil. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy |
Organisation | Radboud University Nijmegen |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (U. Exeter) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also coordinated creating the method to dynamically combine the models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Exeter contribute a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes models of the climate system (PLASIM) and of the carbon cycle (GENIE). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2018 in Energy Strategy Reviews. |
Impact | Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, followed by another £250k grant to study the ownership of low-carbon transition financial risk. Work in this collaboration led us to publish two papers in Nature Climate Change, and one in Nature Energy (in last stages of review). The consortium later coordinated and won a bid for £4.8M of funds from BEIS and CIFF (the Children's Investment Fund Foundation) on the basis of the 2016 paper in Global Environmental Change, working with officials from UK government and governments in China, India and Brazil. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy |
Organisation | University of Cambridge |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (U. Exeter) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also coordinated creating the method to dynamically combine the models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Exeter contribute a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes models of the climate system (PLASIM) and of the carbon cycle (GENIE). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2018 in Energy Strategy Reviews. |
Impact | Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, followed by another £250k grant to study the ownership of low-carbon transition financial risk. Work in this collaboration led us to publish two papers in Nature Climate Change, and one in Nature Energy (in last stages of review). The consortium later coordinated and won a bid for £4.8M of funds from BEIS and CIFF (the Children's Investment Fund Foundation) on the basis of the 2016 paper in Global Environmental Change, working with officials from UK government and governments in China, India and Brazil. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | A Simulation Based Integrated Assessment Model for informing climate change mitigation policy |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Three institutions (U. Cambridge, Cambridge Econometrics, the Open University) agreed to join their expertise to build a new beyond the state of the art Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) for evaluating the impacts of environmental policies and advising policy-making. In this, I (U. Exeter) contribute computational models of technology diffusion in transport and the electricity sector, the Future Technology Transformations system (FTT:Power and FTT:Transport), as well as decision-making in agriculture and bioenergy. This will simulate the diffusion of new technologies and account for fuel use greenhouse gas emissions from those technologies. I also coordinated creating the method to dynamically combine the models. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics and the University of Exeter contribute a global macroeconometric model E3ME, used to calculate the demand for energy and emissions intensive services, which are simulated by our models of technology. The Open University contributes models of the climate system (PLASIM) and of the carbon cycle (GENIE). These enable to evaluate climate change as a result of emissions trajectories calculated using the combined models E3ME-FTT. Cambridge University contributes expertise in international law, governance and policy, and methods for strategic policy-making. The combination of these components enables to evaluate impacts assessments from the policies to their environmental impacts with the evolution of the global economy. It is arguably the most advanced IAM that currently exists, the only one simulation-based. The method is described in our recent collaborative publication Mercure et al. 2018 in Energy Strategy Reviews. |
Impact | Our collaboration is formalised by our first joint output, Mercure et al. Energy Policy 73 (2014) 686-700, and by its methodology, published jointly in Mercure et al. Global Environmental Change (2016). We have used this collaboration as a base to form a consortium for applying for Horizon 2020 funding of €5M and 20 partners across the world. Our proposal passed the first stage, and the full proposal was submitted in Sept. 2014, and scored highly on the second round. Following this, we were successful with a Newton Fund/ESRC bid for £800, in collaboration with partners in Brazil, for application of this model to the Brazilian Energy-Water-Food nexus. This project started in the spring 2016. More recently we obtained a £100k grant from NERC to study the 1.5 degree C target of the Paris Agreement, followed by another £250k grant to study the ownership of low-carbon transition financial risk. Work in this collaboration led us to publish two papers in Nature Climate Change, and one in Nature Energy (in last stages of review). The consortium later coordinated and won a bid for £4.8M of funds from BEIS and CIFF (the Children's Investment Fund Foundation) on the basis of the 2016 paper in Global Environmental Change, working with officials from UK government and governments in China, India and Brazil. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | Cambridge Econometrics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | Open University |
Department | Department of Environment, Earth and Ecosystems |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | Radboud University Nijmegen |
Department | Environmental Science |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | University of Cambridge |
Department | Department of Land Economy |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | BRIDGE team, Newton Fund project |
Organisation | University of Southern Santa Catarina |
Country | Brazil |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | My former institution (Radboud University, formerly U. Cambridge, I am now based at Exeter) has lead the BRIDGE project, with me as director of research in the project. I directed the design and proposal writing for the Newton Fund/ESRC/FAPESC. This bid was successful. The project started in 2016 and ended in 2019. The collaboration carries on with other funds and other projects. |
Collaborator Contribution | RU coordinated research. UCAM coordinates the science-policy interface and stakeholder engagement in Brazil UNISUL coordinates dissemination and co-leads the stakeholder engagement OU participates with RU on emulating models of the natural earth system CE participates with RU to modelling the global economy, the agricultural and technology systems |
Impact | The project started with a Kick-off meeting at the end of April 2016. We organised a workshop on comparative environmental law to which policy analysts and modellers also participated, in Cambridge, January 2017. We organised a stakeholder event in Florianopolis and Brazilia in April 2017. The website is up and working. A good number of publications have resulted. This work is multidisciplinary and involves research in economics, energy, agriculture, climate science, plant science, engineering, business and management, environmental law and political science. The model for stakeholder engagement has been re-used in a much larger, BEIS-funded £4.8M project called 'Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition' (www.eeist.co.uk), which I coordinate and includes this collaboration expanded to now include 16 partners. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Consultancy with DG ENER |
Organisation | Cambridge Econometrics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction |
Impact | I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Consultancy with DG ENER |
Organisation | European Commission |
Country | European Union (EU) |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction |
Impact | I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Consultancy with DG ENER |
Organisation | National Technical University of Athens, Greece |
Country | Greece |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction |
Impact | I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Consultancy with DG ENER |
Organisation | Trinomics |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | I contribute modelling capacity using the FTT model, as well as expertise on innovation systems, the diffusion of innovations and technology policy. |
Collaborator Contribution | Cambridge Econometrics leads the project and contributes macroeconomic modelling Trinomics contributes data on financial flows NTUA contributes macroeconomic and technology modelling The EC funds the project and contributes policy-relevant direction |
Impact | I was lead author of a report for the European Commission on policy-induced innovation (2016). My PhD student and I developed a new FTT model component to study the effectiveness of policy in the uptake of low-carbon household heating devices in EU member states (2017), resulting in a second report for the EC. A new follow-up project was commissioned to the same team in 2019 to continue the work until 2021. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies |
Organisation | Cambridge Econometrics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months. |
Collaborator Contribution | This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year. |
Impact | The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies |
Organisation | Meijo University |
Country | Japan |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months. |
Collaborator Contribution | This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year. |
Impact | The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | REEPS -- Research group for East-Asia Environmental Policy Studies |
Organisation | University of Kyoto |
Country | Japan |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Along with Cambridge Econometrics, I contributed the FTT model which was used to create energy-emissions-environment scenarios for East-Asia. I contributed to engagement activities of the consortium. This collaboration resulted in the publication of the book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015). This is now extended with a new grant, led by the same coordinator and team, which will lead to another similar book on environmental policy in East Asia (2018). A student from Radboud University is being sent for an internship at Nagoya University for the next six months. |
Collaborator Contribution | This consortium is very large and comprises over 18 institutions in Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan. It covers macroeconomics, energy systems, environmental policy, politics. I do not list them all above as they are not in the system, and there are many. See the website below. A book on environmental policy will be produced collaboratively this year. |
Impact | The book Low Carbon sustainable future in East Asia (2015), in which I co-wrote to two chapters. |
Start Year | 2014 |
Description | ReCoVER |
Organisation | Radboud University Nijmegen |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport). |
Collaborator Contribution | UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets. |
Impact | We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | ReCoVER |
Organisation | University of Cambridge |
Department | Department of Land Economy |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport). |
Collaborator Contribution | UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets. |
Impact | We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | ReCoVER |
Organisation | University of East Anglia |
Department | School of Environmental Sciences UEA |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | U. Cambridge/Radboud U contributed data and data analysis capacity, as well as the Future Technology Transformations model for the transport sector (FTT:Transport). |
Collaborator Contribution | UEA contributed methodology of social sciences to analyse surveys to derive consumer behaviour in vehicle markets. |
Impact | We have empirical results that characterise consumer behaviour in vehicle markets, which can be applied both on their own to inform policy-making for reducing emissions in transport, and in more in-depth modelling of vehicle fleets. This will be published this year. |
Start Year | 2015 |
Description | Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium |
Organisation | Cambridge Econometrics |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Private |
PI Contribution | We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis. |
Collaborator Contribution | This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus. |
Impact | The project is due to start on June 1st. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis. |
Collaborator Contribution | This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus. |
Impact | The project is due to start on June 1st. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Description | Sim4Nexus Large Horizon 2020 consortium |
Organisation | Wageningen University & Research |
Country | Netherlands |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | We contribute, along with Cambridge Econometrics, our modelling capacity (E3ME, FTT) as well as our knowledge on modelling methodology and uncertainty analysis. |
Collaborator Contribution | This is a large consortium of over 20 institutions across Europe and beyond, in a 4 year project, of over €7M, studying issues of the Energy-Water-Food Nexus. |
Impact | The project is due to start on June 1st. |
Start Year | 2016 |
Title | Future Technology Transformations for the Power sector (FTT:Power) modelling framework |
Description | FTT:Power is a simulation of the future technology composition, fuel use, investment and greenhouse gas emissions by the global electricity sector in 53/21 regions (E3ME/E3MG). |
IP Reference | |
Protection | Copyrighted (e.g. software) |
Year Protection Granted | 2013 |
Licensed | Yes |
Impact | FTT:Power is a modelling framework and FORTRAN code that was built into the E3MG and E3ME software of Cambridge Econometrics Ltd by myself, freely supplied to them for their commercial use. On its own, it is an opensource software in Matlab. For Cambridge Econometrics, it is hard-linked to the economic simulation of the macroeconometric models E3MG and E3ME. Cambridge Econometrics now supplies FTT:Power as part of its commercial license of E3ME. It has been used for at least two commercial projects already. The first is for energy policy analysis of EU renewables targets by a consortium led by a German University (Leipzig). The second is for electricity policy analysis in East Asian countries (Japan, China, Korea and Taiwan), with emphasis on the nuclear situation, by a large Japanese research consortium, of which the output will be in the form of a book. |
Title | Future Technology Transformations (the FTT family of technology models) |
Description | A simulation of technology diffusion in the global electricity, transport, household heating and steel sectors. This was integrated into the E3ME (www.e3me.com) macroeconometric model of the global economy of my industry partner Cambridge Econometrics. The FTT code was replicated into the FORTRAN code of E3ME. Its primary use is for impact assessment of electricity policy nationally for the whole world divided into 53 countries or regions. It evaluates global greenhouse gas emissions in these sectors, investment in plants and equipment, sectoral prices, fuel use and the costs of chosen energy policies. While this version is part of the commercial license of E3ME, an opensource version of each component of the FTT model family is available from our website, without E3ME. The opensource version of FTT:Power is currently being used for teaching with graduate students of the Department of Land Economy at the University of Cambridge and the Science, Management and Innovation masters program of Radboud University. Several masters theses were carried out using FTT software. |
Type Of Technology | Software |
Year Produced | 2013 |
Open Source License? | Yes |
Impact | The new combined version of E3ME-FTT was used commercially for the first time in late 2013. Since then it has been used extensively in a variety of projects of policy assessment in various countries (Germany, Japan, Korea, China), with and without my involvement. It took a life of its own. It is now contributing to informing policy-making (e.g. at DG ENERGY, European Commission). This model of diffusion of FTT software is a demonstration of practice where the policy impact of my work is ensured by my collaboration with Cambridge Econometrics. |
URL | http://www.e3me.com |
Description | Conference (Florianopolis, Brazil) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This was a conference attracting academics, policy-makers (regional and national), students and the general public. The subject concerned the Energy-Water-Food nexus and the science-policy interface. This tool place in Florianopolis, South of Brazil. We engaged directly with policy-makers at the parliament of the State of Santa-Catarina and with regional policy-makers at the municipality. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |
Description | Conference on the Energy-Water-Food Nexus |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Workshop in Florianopolis, Brazil, to inform on science and policy issues for the energy-water-food nexus. This targeted both academics in the field, as well as students, policy-makers, the general public and practitioners, who came from all over Brazil to participate. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Presentation at the Department of Energy and Climate Change |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Presentation given in Whitehall, at the Department of Energy and Climate Change, to the Strategy and Evidence team then led by the Chief Scientific Advisor Prof David Mackay. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | Seminar at DG ENERGY, European Commission |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | We described results of research on modelling policy-induced innovation to policy analysts and policy-makers at the European Commission. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2016 |
Description | Training course to Brazilians on energy-economic modelling |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Undergraduate students |
Results and Impact | This was a training course aimed at capacity building for modelling energy policy impacts using the FTT:Power model, with Brazilian students and researchers. We invited the Brazilians to travel to Cambridge, at two different dates, in June 2015 and December 2015. Both courses lasted for one week. It resulted in the capacity to use the Cambridge policy analysis tools at UNISUL in Brazil. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2015 |