Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading and Sharing - 3M (Multi-times, Multi-scales, Multi-qualities)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Bath
Department Name: Electronic and Electrical Engineering

Abstract

The future electrical grid will have unprecedented complexity and uncertainty. The cost of low carbon technologies (such as PV, electric vehicles, battery storage and heat pumps) is rapidly decreasing and they are increasingly being connected to the edge of the grid. Millions of businesses and homes, which were traditionally passive energy consumers, will become energy prosumers that can store, convert and/or generate energy enabling them to be an active actor. Each actor will make independent decisions to pursue their own 'selfish' or 'altruistic' goals (supporting schools and increasing reputation). These emerging traits make conventional centralised control, dispatch and scheduling tools no longer fit for purpose. The rise of prosumers, where energy buyers and sellers become increasingly blurred, is far beyond the capability of the current market and system operation framework [Hardy, Ofgem 2015]. The vision of this programme is to address this complex problem by providing strategic direction towards a horizontal energy supply, demonstrate its technical and commercial feasibilities and potential benefits to prosumers, communities and the grid in both Korea and the UK.

The key aim of this consortium is to manage large rapid influx of DERs (e.g. in the Southwest of UK) through increase horizontal energy collaboration/transaction management, thus substantially reduce the integration challenge to the vertical supply system. Managing millions of independent actors, each with a differing value proposition and each having changing levels of variability and uncertainty, is extremely challenging, as minor optimization errors at the individual level can build into major failures and inefficiencies at the regional and system level. Thus, the strategic research question we are addressing is,

"How to align the technical and market arrangements with diverse social requirements, such that 'selfish and independent' goals pursued by millions of customers are aligned with the interests of the communities and the system?"

We will undertake fundamental research into the principles of collaborative consumption/sharing economy and advanced understanding of prosumer energy to deliver a prototype peer-to-peer energy trading/sharing (P2P-ETS) platform. This will lead to a unique scalable market place for mass prosumers to buy/sell/share energy themselves. The goal is to provide an access to mass consumers with markets that encourage low carbon shock to be absorbed locally and substantially reduce the grid balancing and upgrading costs. We will combine leading UK/Korean strengths in smart grids, technologies, whole-system analyses, power system economics, and big data/machine learning to accelerate the understanding, design, development and deployment of P2P-ETS in the UK, Korea and beyond.

Planned Impact

This partnership proposal will deliver the initial technical and economic feasibility of introducing peer-to-peer energy trading and sharing and explore the impact that such a system could have on the development of smart transmission and distribution systems. We will understand better prosumer energy habits (generation, demand, variability and dynamics) and be able to inform the future development of social-smart grids over the 2030-2050 timeframe. The ultimate impact of this work is a methodology that has the potential to contribute to building resilience into and keeping the costs down for the end-customer in an increasingly more complex grid. Our ambition is to place the UK and Korea in an internationally leading position in this important field and provide a secure platform for future joint projects.

The potential beneficiaries will be UK and Korean governments, policy makers, regulators, network operators, DER aggregators, communication companies, energy consumers and local communities, academics and society. The project will be supported by a Steering Group (SG) which represents the main potential beneficiaries user groups, consist experts from Western Power Distribution, Northern Power Grid, Swanbarton, National Grid, Ofgem and DECD on the UK side, and the utility company KEPCO, the regulator - MOTIE, device manufacturers: LS industrial systems Ltd., Hyundai Heavy industry Ltd, Hyosung, the market operator - KPX 4.

The impact to beneficiaries will be delivered through Collaboration, Communication, and Exploitation & Application.

Collaboration: The research will be undertaken by 10 geographically separate institutions in two countries, therefore its management requires particular care. We have already established international collaboration framework for meaningful collaboration. For combining the strengths of Korean partners with the UK partners, we have scheduled 6 face-face consortium meetings, 6 teleconferences and 6 secondments for researchers between the two countries and budgeted to guarantee sufficient researcher interactions and collaborations.

Communication: We will establish the project as a visible focal point for Smart Distribution/Smart Grid research in the UK, Korea and internationally. We will learn from international experiences; publicise the aims, objectives, activities, and key findings of the project via launching the project web site, presentations at relevant meetings, publications in professional journals/conferences, and disseminate results through the related research initiatives in EU, UK and Korea. In particular, we will use the face-to-face meeting as opportunities to invite international leaders to share latest research findings, such as Gridwise Architecture Council in the States, ensuring that the UK/Korea are at the forefront of this emerging development. We will link the proposed research with our other networks, including EPSRC Grand Challenges (Energy Storage for Low Carbon Grids, Top and tail, and the Autonomic Power System), SUPERGEN HiDEF, UKERC, Horizon 2020 and ITRC and also several Low Carbon Network Fund projects, to facilitate the wider communication and maximize the research impact.

Exploitation and Application: Standard processes are already in place in each of the partner universities to protect the research outputs, all of whom have dedicated Research and Innovation support staff. Each of the partners will be asked to sign a collaboration agreement covering issues of confidentiality and IPR. Prior intellectual property (IP) will remain with the original owner, while new IP developed in collaboration will be shared equitably between the partners responsible for its development. The opportunities for further development of technology will be actively sought from Korean/UK industry, EPSRC, Innovate UK, EU and KETEP.
 
Description We have estimated the expected variance for each supply and demand level for each bid period, to give a measure of the uncertainty of the estimate. We have tested on the smart metering data and PV data from both the UK and Korea. We found the forecasting error significantly increases as the volume decreases. We have also modelled the distribution of PV output over different days by 3d-kernal density distribution. 2018 - the more recent development is on the product characterisation for local intermittent generation and flexibility, and the key attributes are identified to substantially reduce the search space for matching algorithms
Exploitation Route The research on the characterisation and forecasting of individual demand/generation will be fed into further research on the P2P trading. The resource characterisation will be used to develop market architecture and forecasting will inform market operation.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Electronics,Energy

 
Description The findings will inform the community energy market design for regulators in the UK and Korean. We have also shared the findings to DNOs, Korean grid operator, suppliers. The finding has drawn attention from experts from Western Power Distribution, Northern Power Grid, Swanbarton, National Grid, Ofgem and DECD on the UK side, and the utility company KEPCO, the regulator - MOTIE, device manufacturers: LS industrial systems Ltd., Hyundai Heavy industry Ltd, Hyosung, the market operator - KPX 4. The industry application will be further exploited as the project progresses. A dissemination event - Delivering a Smart Energy System was hosted in Bath on the 4th July 2017 with key researchers across the consortium disseminated their research findings to the audience from the government, industry, community groups and academics. A document is published at Regen to summarise some of the key research development. https://www.regen.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/REGEN-Delivering_Smart_Energy_Systems_LO.pdf
First Year Of Impact 2017
Sector Energy
Impact Types Societal,Economic

 
Description A response to Ofgem's Call for Evidence for 'Future Supply Market Arrangements'
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
 
Description A response to the BEIS/Ofgem call for evidence on "A smart flexible energy system"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
 
Description Committee Member of Future Charging Forum
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
 
Description ETIP SNET - ENERGY SECTOR INTERFACES
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description ETIP SNET - GRID PLANNING COORDINATION ACROSS SYSTEM OPERATORS
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Member of Ofgem RIIO2 Challenging Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Open Networks Advisory Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Smart Systems Forum
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact BEIS and OFGEM developed plans to remove barriers, improve market and regulatory framework, catalyse innovation, and shape roles and responsibilities in the shift towards a smart, more flexible energy system which meets the needs of consumers and businesses now and in the future.
 
Description A Networked Market Platform for Electric Vehicle Smart Charging
Amount £317,743 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/S000887/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2018 
End 06/2021
 
Description E-Flex
Amount £280,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 104249 
Organisation Innovate UK 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2018 
End 04/2021
 
Description Energy Management in Botswana and Sub Saharan Africa (EMBOSSA)
Amount £101,207 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/P030114/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2017 
End 03/2018
 
Description Innovation in vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems: real-world demonstrators
Amount £3,046,785 (GBP)
Funding ID 104229 
Organisation Innovate UK 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2018 
End 06/2021
 
Description Local Energy Market
Amount £350,400 (GBP)
Organisation European Commission 
Department European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 04/2018 
End 12/2020
 
Description MERLON
Amount € 4,000,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 824386 
Organisation European Commission H2020 
Sector Public
Country Belgium
Start 01/2019 
End 12/2022
 
Description Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading and Sharing - 3M (Multi-times, Multi-scales, Multi-qualities)
Amount £1,000,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/N03466X/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2016 
End 05/2019
 
Description Peer-to-Peer SmarTest
Amount € 5,000,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 244102 
Organisation European Commission 
Department Horizon 2020
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 01/2015 
End 12/2017
 
Description Robust Low Voltage Network Planning to Facilitate EV Integration
Amount £12,000 (GBP)
Funding ID IE161555 
Organisation The Royal Society 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2017 
End 04/2019
 
Description Short-Term Load Forecasting at Household Level Based on Deep Learning
Amount £3,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Bath 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2017 
End 07/2018
 
Description Western Power Distribution
Amount £250,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 123434 
Organisation Western Power Distribution 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Western Power Distribution
Amount £50,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/H500103/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Western Power Distribution
Amount £100,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 6501 
Organisation Western Power Distribution 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Western Power Distribution
Amount £897,122 (GBP)
Funding ID 6351 
Organisation Western Power Distribution 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Title Whole electricity system model 
Description This model takes into account spatial and temporal characteristics of the energy system 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact Informing industry and government about the whole system value of distributed energy resources 
 
Title Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load 
Description New models are proposed for adjusting probabilistic forecasts to ensure coherence with the aggregation constraints inherent in temporal hierarchies. The different approaches nested within this framework include models that exploit information at all levels of the hierarchy as well as a novel method based on cross-validation. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2018 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The methods are evaluated using real data from two wind farms in Crete and electric load in Boston. For these applications, optimal decisions related to grid operations and bidding strategies are based on coherent probabilistic forecasts of energy power. Empirical evidence is also presented showing that probabilistic forecast reconciliation improves the accuracy of the probabilistic forecasts. By performing hierarchical reconciliation, we will have a full picture of reconciled probabilistic forecasts in different lead times and sampling frequencies up to 24 hour ahead. This allows us to evaluate the probability of mismatch between supply and demand for each time and duration within 24 hours, which is essential elements to be considered for peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading under uncertainties between prosumers. Forecasting quantiles of output or load over different temporal frequencies are important inputs into grid management. However in the absence of forecast reconciliation these estimates could be quite perverse. For instance modelling daily data may lead to the conclusion that the probability that demand exceeds a threshold of 100 GW/h over the entire period from 00:00-24:00 the following day is 1%, while a model for 12-hourly data may lead to the conclusion that the probability of exceeding the same threshold just between 00:00-12:00 is 5%. These two estimates could lead to two very different operational decisions. Probabilistic forecast reconciliation as proposed here circumvents this problem. 
URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02635
 
Description DC Equipment Donation from Western Power Distribution to the University of Bath 
Organisation Western Power Distribution
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution University of Bath developed a number of innovations for Western Power Distribution's smart grid demonstration project - Solar Bristol. This includes: i) local dc grid design, ii) smart tariffs, iii) local energy management systems. The demonstration was to trial if and how to use consumer resources to allow high density PV generation to be connected to the existing system whilst support grid constraints. These innovations have been deconstruction have been implemented over 26 homes, 4 schools and data centre, involving each premise PV panels, energy storage and integrated energy management systems.
Collaborator Contribution Western Power Distribution (WPD) has provided in-depth practical knowledge concerning their low voltage networks, challenges from integration renewables and data sets concerning customers and networks. Upon the completion of Solar Bristol project, WPD has donated the demonstration equipment to the University of Bath in December 2016 for education and research purposes. They provide continued support to Bath research and teaching in community energy with the view to develop the University of Bath capability in research, development and testing.
Impact The DC laboratory provides an in-house facility for teaching and research from 2017. There are 2 research assistants and 2 undergraduates using the facilities for their research, this is expected to grow very substantially as we develop further the laboratory capability for future undergraduate teaching and postgraduate research.
Start Year 2016
 
Description The Future Structure of Distribution Systems 
Organisation Northern Powergrid
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Develop quantitative evidence back up by laboratory demonstration for introducing different markets to the distribution system, inform how the industry should move from the present passive industry structure that largely address the problem through investment to an active structure with substantially increased operating efficiency.
Collaborator Contribution Provide practical guidance on the key issues, keep us updated with concurrent industry development, such as industry-led Open Network and Future Power System Architecture. They will critically review our development, and identify early opportunities for achieving major impacts.
Impact "System Architecture for Customer-led Distribution System", abstract accepted by European Electricity Market conference, 2018. "Assessment of Relative Efficiency of Differing Energy Markets for Community Energy", abstract accepted by CIRED 2018.
Start Year 2017
 
Title Integrated whole-energy system (IWES) model 
Description Uniqueness of the model is in very granular spatial and temporal resolution while considering multi-energy vectors including electricity, heat, transport. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2018 
Impact Informing Government about the cost effectiveness of alternative decarbonisation pathways 
 
Title Network Charging Software 
Description The software combines technical modelling of power system and economic appraisal in the Excel platform, able to quantify the long-term network investment cost from connecting a generator or demand at each node in the system. Using the traditional approach, the process is an iterative method between technical modelling and economic appraisal and requires operates to transfer data from modelling to economic analyses. Not only it takes nearly 100 times of Bath platform, it is prone to human errors. The software development is supported by the University of Bath IAA fund and WPD's cash support. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2007 
Impact The software has been validated with local utility, Western Power Distribution, with their power system engineers and charging manager, showed confirming results and with substantially reduced time (from 1 months effort down to 20 minutes). UK Power Network and Northern Powergrid expressed strong interests to adopt the software. This has now on pause as the charging methodology is on major reform and more recently, the charging reform on the distribution system is undergoing further reform to be consistent with that of the transmission system. The industry's view is once this is completed, then it would be a good time to consider upgrading the software to take into account of the new charging standards. 
 
Description Conference on Energy Storage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Setting out the role and value of energy storage in future low carbon energy system
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Invited Speaker (International Conference on Future Networks and Distributed Systems, Cambridge) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I was key note speaker at International Conference on Future Networks and Distributed Systems, Cambridge, United Kingdom July 19 - 20, 2017. Spoke on the topic ' Transactive Energy & Role of Communication Infrastructure' . The talk raised many questions about Peer to Peer Energy Trading and Sharing and the role of communication systems
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Invited Speaker (Manchester City Council/ S Korea British Embassy) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact A delegation of experts from South Korea visited Manchester in 2018. I was invited to speak on Transactive Energy Platform for future V2X" keynote speech for The 4th Industrial Revolution Onsite Visit on Autonomous Vehicles & Smart Cities, April 29th to 4th, Manchester City Council/ S Korea British Embassy, May 2018.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Invited Speaker (Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited Speaker: 'Internet of Energy: The Role of Communication Infrastructure, Coordinated Development of New Energy Technologies & Multi-Energy Internet', China-UK International Energy Internet Conference, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; 22-25th October, 2017
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Key note speaker and the vice-chair of the conference committee (Conference of CSGRES 2019) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact I am invented to be a key note speaker at the International Conference of CSGRES 2019 on June 10-12, 2019, in Jeju, Korea. The speech topic is "Customer-led Distribution Systems". This talk will present experience from around the world to explore options in introducing horizontal market to distribution systems, discussing technical, commercial, regulatory and social challenges in addressing millions of low carbon technologies.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://csgres2019.com/?page_id=39
 
Description Mentor for India - UK Advanced Training School, sponsored by Science Education Research Board (SERB), Indian Government and the British Council. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact The IUATS is designed to provide an effective positive impact in Indian society and economy. Post-doctoral, early career researchers, leading researchers and senior researchers will received a massive positive academic impact because participants receive a top quality training on a holistic approach on optimal design and control of Smart community, allowing them to acquire exploitable knowledge to cope in optimal way with majority of societal challenges related to improving the lives of rural communities by economic development and social welfare. This has led to a number of follow up bilateral visits and grants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Workshop on nexus of smart energy, intelligent manufacturing and transportation systems 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Setting research agenda for future intelligent manufacturing and transportation systems
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019