MaxImiSing flexibility through multi-Scale IntegratiON of energy systems (MISSION)

Lead Research Organisation: Cardiff University
Department Name: Sch of Engineering

Abstract

Background:
The UK has legally-binding targets to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the use of renewable sources of energy. There is a target of reducing 80% of GHG emissions by 2050, compared to the 1990 level, as well as interim targets to reduce emissions and increase the use of renewable energy for 2020 and 2030. The electrification of heat along with a large utilisation of renewable sources for power generation are considered as a solution to meet the emission and renewable targets for UK. However, these will result in variability and uncertainty in electricity supply as well as substantially higher peaks of electricity demand. If these issues are to be addressed through a "predict and provide" approach (i.e. building more capacity for back-up power generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure), significantly high costs will be incurred. These costs can be reduced by employing flexibility technologies enabling peak shaving and supporting electricity demand and supply balancing. A study for the UK Government estimates that deploying flexibility technologies (electricity storage, electricity demand response, flexible power station operation and international interconnectors) in the Great Britain power system can save up to £40bn of the power system costs to 2050 [1].

In addition to the flexibility offered by battery storage which requires massive investment to be realised, there already exist substantial energy storage and demand response potentials within heat and gas systems which can be exploited to support the operation of electricity system and facilitate a cost-effective transition to a low carbon and resilient energy system. To achieve this, efficient integration of electricity, heat and gas systems across different scales is required. For example, the correct integration of the electricity and heating sectors through optimal operation of "power-to-heat" technologies and thermal storage (in the form of hot water tanks, and also as thermal storage using the thermal inertia of networks and buildings) enables a shift in electricity demand required for heating.

Research aims:
This research will (i) identify and quantify potential flexibility that is inherent in gas and heat systems (e.g. gas and thermal storage and demand response capability) across various scales (i.e. buildings, district heating system, national gas transmission systems), (ii) optimise the provision of flexibility from gas and heat systems to support the operation of a low carbon power system, and (iii) develop modelling tools and methodologies to inform energy policy and provide technical and regulatory recommendations to enable maximum exploitation of flexibility through energy systems integration.

Work Programme:
WP1. Project management, engagement and exploitation
WP2. Quantification of flexibility requirement in a low carbon power system
WP3. Characterisation and quantification of flexibility technologies in heat and gas sectors
WP4. Optimisation of integrated energy systems for flexibility provision
WP5. Agent-based game-theoretic model to investigate interactions between key players in integrated energy systems
WP6. Identifying real world barriers to exploitation of flexibility from energy systems integration


References

[1] Carbon Trust, "An analysis of electricity system flexibility for Great Britain," https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/568982/An_analysis_of_electricity_flexibility_for_Great_Britain.pdf , 2016.

Planned Impact

This project will investigate cost-effective solutions for addressing the growing need for flexibility in electricity systems by developing modelling tools for optimising the synergies between electricity, gas and heat. The implementation of the research outputs by policy makers and relevant stakeholders will reduce the need for greater capacity for battery storage, peaking generating plants, transmission and distribution, and consequently lead to significant cost savings.

Collaboration and Knowledge Transfer:
The proposal has been developed in close collaboration with the industry partners. Effective collaborations with the project partners will be maintained throughout the project to ensure that their extensive experience and their forward-looking views will be considered in directing this research. A project Advisory Board (AB) has been formed consisting of senior delegates from key stakeholders in the UK energy sector who are potential users of this research including Wales and West Utilities, National Grid, Energy Systems Catapult, ITM Power and Tata Steel. LoSs from National Grid and ESC have not been received in time.

AB meetings: The AB will meet every 6 months throughout the project to provide technical advice and support implementation and exploitation of the project outcomes.
Focused meetings with stakeholders: In addition to the AB meetings, 30 focused meetings with individual stakeholders will be scheduled for detailed discussions around data, methodology and technical challenges regarding relevant work packages.

Exploitation:
Deliverables of the project include transparent modelling tools for whole-system optimisation of electricity, gas and heat systems to maximise provision of flexibility and understand strategic behaviour of various players in a low carbon energy system. To maximise impact and develop commercialisation opportunities based on the results, the PI will actively engage with potential users of the developed modelling tools from early stage in the project. The modelling tools will be documented and made available to research community (via GitHub) for continuous enhancements. In addition, the modelling tools will be provided to project partners and other users to inform policy, support their investment decisions and shape their operational strategies.
Industry secondments: Secondment opportunities will be sought for the PI and the RAs to maximise the engagement with stakeholders and exploitation opportunities. One secondment to WWU, one secondment to National Grid and one secondment to University of Iceland will be organised.

Communication and dissemination:
The existence, objectives, activities, and findings of the project will be publicised and disseminated through project partners' networks. Also:
Building links with other research consortia: To guarantee the proposed project will benefit from and contribute to the broader research activities in the area of energy systems, close links will be established with ongoing relevant projects such as Supergen Hub in Energy Networks, Centre for Energy Systems Integration, Flexis and MAGNITUDE.
Presentations: Findings of the project will be disseminated through the project partners and presenting at relevant national and international research conferences and industry events.

Workshops: In addition to the AB meetings, annual workshops (3 in total) will be organised with wider participation of industry and the research community (~30 people) which will be used to refine the research questions, review and critique findings and support outreach.
Publications: The research outputs will be published in at least 4 original papers in high profile journals: Nature Energy and IEEE Transactions.
Media: To maximise engagement with public, the key findings/messages of the research will be conveyed through publishing articles in newspapers/websites and TV/radio.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description One research topic that was investigated in this award was to quantify the value of flexibility from the gas network to support the operation of the electricity system. This research demonstrates that the coordinated operation of gas-driven and electric-driven compressors in the gas network can reduce the operating cost of both gas and electricity supply systems, and also can reduce the emission from gas compressor fleet.
Exploitation Route I am currently discussing with National Grid Gas Innovation team to collaborate on this topic. We recently applied for RAEng Industrial Fellowship to take this work forward and use the finding of this award in practice in collaboration with National Grid.
Sectors Energy

URL https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030626192100252X
 
Description A modelling tool developed in this fellowship to quantify the energy demand for heating for spatially-resolved areas, was applied to a South Wales case study to inform energy companies and local government about the energy infrastructure implication of decarbonising heat sector, and therefore support their policy making. This was part of an initiative called Zero2050 led by National Grid in partnership with Wales and West Utilities, Western Power Distribution and Welsh Government. For more information please see: https://zero2050.co.uk/
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Energy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description A report for a consortium of energy network companies on decarbonisation of heat in South Wales
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://zero2050.co.uk/media/1264/wp2-estimation-of-heat-demand.pdf
 
Description (VPP4ISLANDS) - Virtual Power Plant for Interoperable and Smart isLANDS
Amount € 7,223,109 (EUR)
Funding ID 957852 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 09/2020 
End 03/2024
 
Description Assessing temporal and spatial impacts of decarbonising heat and transport on electricity networks
Amount £132,443 (GBP)
Organisation National Grid UK 
Sector Private
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2020 
End 03/2021
 
Description Decarbonising Jordanian Energy Systems Utilising Smart Solutions based on Energy Storage
Amount £80,000 (GBP)
Organisation Royal Academy of Engineering 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2021 
End 03/2022
 
Description FLEXIBILITY PROVISION FROM ENERGY SYSTEMS INTEGRATION
Amount £50,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 2279093 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2019 
End 03/2023
 
Description Flexibility from Cooling and Storage (Flex-Cool-Store)
Amount £1,113,918 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/V042505/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 08/2021 
End 09/2024
 
Description Integrated heating and cooling networks with heat-sharing-enabled smart prosumers
Amount £856,109 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/T022795/1  
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2021 
End 03/2025
 
Description SiemensEPSRC Digital Twin with Data-Driven Predictive Control: Unlocking Flexibility of Industrial Plants for Supporting a Net Zero Electricity System
Amount £50,377 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/W028573/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2021 
End 08/2022
 
Description UK Energy Research Centre Phase 4
Amount £18,000,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/S029575/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2019 
End 04/2024
 
Title A sophisticated model of electricity, gas and hydrogen networks 
Description This model was developed to analyse complex interactions between energy networks. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact The model was developed in Python, and will be shared online with research communities. 
 
Title An Agent-based model for energy system analysis 
Description The power sector is undergoing a period of significant change, in terms of the mix of generation technologies, as well as the structure of energy markets, regulation and assets ownership. The shift to a more liberalised electricity system has resulted in an increase in the number of decision makers. This paper demonstrates an agent-based approach for investigating the long-term investment in the GB power generation sector, whilst considering the operability of the system. A key focus of this study is to investigate the efficacy of a range of policies to reduce the emissions and facilitate investment in renewable generation and battery storage. In order to capture the value of battery storage, the hourly operation of the electricity system, considering short-term variation of demand, renewable generation and wholesale electricity prices (including negative prices during high renewable and low demand events), was incorporated in the long-term investment model. The modelling results show while the cost of battery storage is expected to decrease gradually in future, a substantial subsidy is still required to justify investment in battery storage. The deployment of battery storage provides a significant reduction in the overall power generation system cost, peak demand and carbon emissions. 
Type Of Material Computer model/algorithm 
Year Produced 2021 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact This model will be made publicly available via an interactive web-based user interface. This expect to enable researchers and other stakeholders to engage with the models' inputs, assumptions and outputs and provide useful feedback to us. The ultimate goal of developing this model is to provide it to key stakeholders and decision makers to investigate 'real-world' impacts of any policy and decision in energy system. 
 
Description Collaboration with DTU on flexibility from heat networks 
Organisation Technical University of Denmark
Country Denmark 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution A Researcher from Technical University of Denmark (Mr Hanmin Cai) joined my research team in cardiff and spent 4 months as a secondment. I supervised Mr Cai during his time in Cardiff.
Collaborator Contribution A Researcher from Technical University of Denmark (Mr Hanmin Cai) joined my research team in cardiff and spent 4 months as a secondment. During this time he contributed to the MISSION project by analysing the flexibility provision from heat networks. He used the University of Warwick campus energy system as a case study (University of Warwick Estate is a partner in MISSION project).
Impact No
Start Year 2019
 
Description Collaboration with Southeast University in China 
Organisation Southeast University China
Country China 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Ms. Zijuan Yang from the Southeast University of China spent 1 year as a visitor in my team at Cardiff University and worked on flexibility from integrating electricity and hydrogen systems. I supervised her research while she was spending her secondment at Cardiff University.
Collaborator Contribution Ms. Zijuan Yang from the Southeast University of China spent 1 year as a visitor in my team at Cardiff University and worked on flexibility from integrating electricity and hydrogen systems. She contributed to MISSION project by analysing the interactions between a wind farm and a local hydrogen system to investigate how coordinated operation of such an integrated system can provide flexibility to the power grid. We have co-authored a journal paper on this topic that is currently under review.
Impact We have co-authored a journal paper on this topic that is currently under review.
Start Year 2019
 
Description Collaboration with University of Campinas 
Organisation State University of Campinas
Country Brazil 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution This collaboration aims to investigate the future of gas infrastructure in UK and Brazil. My research team will contribute to this project by providing knowledge and expertise about the gas supply system in UK.
Collaborator Contribution The partner from the University of Campinas will contribute to this collaboration by providing knowledge of the Brazilian gas supply system.
Impact This collaboration has just been started. We expect to publish a paper to disseminate the outputs of this collaboration.
Start Year 2022
 
Description Collaboration with University of Waterloo 
Organisation University of Waterloo
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution I am hosting a visiting researcher from University of Waterloo, and provided him with training opportunities.
Collaborator Contribution A visiting researcher from University of Waterloo joined the project from the beginning of January 2019 and spends 4 months to model heat and power sectors in the Great Britain using bi-level optimisation approach (he is contributing to WP5 of the project). He is funded by Mitacs Globalink.
Impact We have published two journal papers: - E Haghi, Q Kong, M Fowler, K Raahemifar, M Qadrdan, Assessing the potential of surplus clean power in reducing GHG emissions in the building sector using game theory; a case study of Ontario, Canada, IET Energy Systems Integration 1 (3), 184-193, 10.1049/iet-esi.2019.0019 - E Haghi, M Qadrdan, J Wu, N Jenkins, M Fowler, K Raahemifar, An iterative approach for optimal decarbonization of electricity and heat supply systems in the Great Britain, Energy 201, 117611, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117611
Start Year 2019
 
Description An invited talk about the Energy-Water Nexus to policy makers in Jordan 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact In November 2019 I was invited to deliver a talk on "Energy-Water Nexus: Case studies Great Britain and Brazil" in a policy-focused workshop on energy-water nexus. The workshop organised by the University of Jordan in collaboration with the Jordanian government. Several ministers and key stakeholders were present in the workshop.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Bi-weekly meetings with stakeholders in South Wales 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Bi-weekly meetings with network companies and other stakeholders in South Wales to discuss pathways to net zero in South Wales.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
 
Description Chairing a panel session on Decarbonising Heat in ICAE2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A panel session was organised and chaired to discuss the opportunities and challenges of decarbonising heat sectors in European countries. Four experts from University and Industry were invited and discussed their viewpoints. This was a panel session organised in the International Conference on Applied Energy 2021.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://applied-energy.org/icae2021/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Decarbonising.pdf
 
Description Engagement with National Grid to discuss the value of gas network flexibility 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact I and my colleagues met a team of managers and analyst in National Grid and discussed how our modelling tools and expertise can help National Grid to quantify the value of gas network flexibility, and therefore help National Grid with its proposal for RIIO2.

National Grid has requested us to carry our some analysis and modelling to inform them about the value of gas network flexibility.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description INCOSE energy system interest group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact INCOSE energy systems interest group meets 3 times a year to discuss decarbonisation of energy systems and security of supply.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
 
Description Interview for Small Nation Big Ideas 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact A 1 minute interview about decarbonisation of heat in South Wales.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzcMJEy9WAo
 
Description Joined and presented in the Zero 2050 South Wales workshop in Swansea on 12 Dec. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Joined and presented in the Zero 2050 South Wales workshop in Swansea on 12 Dec. Delegated from Welsh Government, National Grid, WWU, ARUP etc were also present.
The aim of this workshop was to discuss various pathways for achieving net zero in South Wales.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://zero2050.co.uk/
 
Description National Grid Gas Innovation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Several meetings were organised with National Grid Hydrogen Innovation Team to discuss the role of hydrogen in achieving net-zero in UK. We have agreed to start a new collaboration on this topic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022