Roadmaps to Zero Net Emissions in Urban Public Transport

Technological and societal changes are transforming the nature of public transport services. As concerns over air quality, congestion, and energy security have become elevated, there has been increasing emphasis on the development of sustainable, reliable low- and zero-emissions transport systems.

In response there has been significant investment in new bus technologies - across the EU, there are currently over 1,300 electric buses in operation or on order, with the UK holding 18% of these as the largest operator in Europe. There are commitments from 19 public operators and authorities across 25 European cities, which would see a growth in this fleet of up to 92% over the next 3 years, and by 2025 the size of the electric bus fleet across the EU could be increased by more than 4.5 times over the baseline today. At a global level, the Combined Annual Growth Rate for electric buses is currently predicted to be 33.5% between 2017 and 2025. This rapid growth in the sector represents a substantial business opportunity for the UK, but brings to the forefront a multitude of challenges including concerns over cost of acquisition/operation, vehicle range, energy efficiency, suitability of infrastructure (both civil and energy) to respond to the growing demand, how to account for blockages due to social acceptance, policy conflicts and effective management of future waste streams.

It is in this context that the current Prosperity Partnership brings together a multi-disciplinary team encompassing Queen's University Belfast and Wrightbus to deliver a comprehensive understanding of the challenges arising from introducing next generation zero net emissions (ZNE) buses into the public transport sector. In a climate of rapid innovation, a detailed understanding of both the short- and long-term technology risks and opportunities is key to successful exploitation. The proposed research aims to ensure that the UK remains at the forefront of development in the next, and future, generations of energy efficient bus technologies. The research will focus on four key, highly integrated challenges:

1. There is no consensus on an optimal zero net emissions vehicle technology in the bus sector, with significant challenges in developing powertrain technologies which maximise the fuel/emissions/range/load factor efficiencies while maintaining pace with advancements in health monitoring and autonomy. With sector specific challenges, the bus industry is lagging behind the passenger car sector but will play a critical role in underpinning the next generation low carbon economy.
2. Next generation vehicles will need to be increasingly resilient to variations in energy consumption, not only at the vehicle level to mitigate range anxiety, where energy consumption will vary considerably as a function of route driven, but also across fleets, where enhanced understanding of the lifecycle energy requirements and waste streams will contribute to future enhanced energy efficiency and security.
3. As buses become increasingly more advanced, there are opportunities to not only improve the design of the vehicle, but also how it integrates with infrastructure, moving towards the next generation of Smart Cities. Drive-by monitoring and inductive charging of infrastructure sensors will enable greater understanding of how our transport systems impact on the state of health of our infrastructure, and to understand how added value from our bus networks can be secured through vehicle-based monitoring protocols.
4. There is uncertainty across the sector in how emerging policy can account for extra-technological dimensions; for example, societal impacts, legitimacy, cultural norms, and economic opportunities. There is a need to integrate these societal dimensions with technological innovation as part of the mapping and governance of transition pathways.

As the Partnership develops, it is anticipated that there will be four key types of impact realised from the work: Academic, Industrial, Societal and Economic.

The Partnership is led by a team with over twenty years of collaboration in the delivery of high value, high quality research in the public transport domain, and the work proposed in this Partnership will build upon this foundation to deliver, in the first instance, global academic and industrial leadership in zero net emissions urban bus sector. This Academic Impact will be achieved through high-value knowledge creation in close partnership with the OEM, and later with the supply chain and operators. Sharing of this new knowledge base through academic publications, conference dissemination and other academic engagement routes will rapidly inform the areas where further fundamental level research is critical, helping to reduce the lead time between low TRL level research and industrial uptake, and elevating the international standing of the research team at QUB. The research will also help to sustain and grow the William Wright Technology Centre at Queen's University Belfast as a focal point for next generation bus vehicle development activities, and will be used as a platform to further develop a strategic network with other transportation focussed centres across the UK and internationally to become a model for successful academic-industrial collaboration.

The Industrial Impact of the work will be realised in a number of ways. First, the international competitiveness of Wrightbus will be enriched through access to state-of-the-art modelling techniques, new understanding of how best to approach fundamental infrastructure and policy related challenges, and new methodologies which can support next generation bus development programmes transferred directly from the academic team through secondments and ongoing technical engagement. Secondly, as future gaps in product development are identified, Wrightbus and their partners will be able to respond more rapidly to upcoming challenges and opportunities in the sector. Finally, all sectors of industry will benefit from the training and development of a new generation of engineers and researchers with a keen understanding of the challenges associated with the development of a sustainable, efficient zero net emissions public transport system.

Through the combination of Academic and Industrial Impact, significant Economic Impact is envisaged. This is not only through the development of methodologies and toolsets which will underpin the creation of next generation sustainable ZNE vehicle concepts, which will benefit the UK economy through competitive domestic and international sales, but also through high value job creation and security in this emerging sector (bus manufacturing sustains over 20,000 jobs through direct and indirect employment throughout the UK). The project also offers the potential to identify emerging business opportunities for further growth and expansion for both the partners and their wider supply chain/academic networks, and resulting outputs from this work which can be used to inform government/local authority/operator economic policy and public transport investment strategies. This will inevitably stimulate Societal Impact through rapid escalation of next generation zero net emission vehicle technologies from concept through to production, with net benefits for public mobility and health.