Coastal modelling of extreme storms and sea-level rise (CMESSLR)

Lead Research Organisation: Plymouth University
Department Name: Sch of Biological and Marine Sciences

Abstract

SUMMARY

Currently, more than 600 million people live <10 m above mean sea level, and sea-level rise (SLR) and potential changes in storminess, due to climate change, will increasingly expose these coastal communities to increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion. To predict coastal impacts of these climate change consequences, and help design adaptation strategies to deal with these impacts, requires accurate and robust numerical models operating over a range of time scales, from real-time and operational coastal flooding models to long-term and strategic coastal evolution models. A very wide variety of commercial and bespoke numerical coastal impact models are available and 'coastal modelling' has developed into a large and important research area.

Led by PI Masselink, the Coastal Processes Research Group at the University of Plymouth is involved with two major numerical modelling efforts: (1) development of an operational coastal flooding model for the SW coast of England in collaboration with the EA flood forecasting team; and (2) modelling the response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise with involvement of UNEP. These models can be significantly improved. For example, the operational coastal flooding model is a hydrodynamic, rather than a morphodynamic model, and the coral reef island modelling is not yet advanced enough to deal with long-term island evolution. Through interaction and collaboration with a number of world-leading coastal researchers and modellers at institutions in the Netherlands (Deltares), New Zealand (University of Auckland) and the United States (USGS), the aim of this Overseas Travel Grant is to fund a 6-month sabbatical to increase PI Masselink's coastal modelling capabilities and transfer this enhanced understanding to other members of Plymouth's coastal research team (CPRG and CMAR), potentially leading to transformative impacts on the coastal research and modelling capabilities at the University of Plymouth.

Three back-to-back 2-month visits are planned from mid-January 2020 to mid-July 2020. The direct purpose of the research visits is to: (1) study up-to-date numerical coastal modelling techniques from world-leading modellers and collaborate with them and their students on a number of topics/issues; (2) strengthen existing and develop new international collaborations with coastal numerical modellers and coral reef experts; (3) carry out research in a coral reef island environment to enhance field expertise; and (4) produce a number of tangible outputs and impacts.

In addition to the direct benefits associated with the research visits for PI Masselink and his research group, the following tangible outputs of the visits are anticipated:
* A full-length paper submitted to a high-impact journal on the coral reef island morphodynamic modelling. This paper is likely to be co-authored by most of the research visit hosts.
* A short letter/commentary submitted to Nature/Science arguing the importance of morphodynamic modelling to evaluate the long-term future of coral reef islands.
* One large grant proposal submitted to NERC defined around the topic of morphodynamic response of coral reef islands to SLR involving at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.
* One standard research grant submitted to EPSRC focussing on modelling coastal flood risk, including the morphodynamics. This proposal is also likely to involve at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.

Planned Impact

IMPACT SUMMARY

The impact of the research conducted as part of this Overseas Travel Grant will mainly be achieved some time after the 6-month sabbatical travel, especially as a result of subsequent research grants inspired by the collaborations during the sabbatical. Therefore, in response to the specific question: 'What will be done during and after the project to increase the likelihood of the research reaching the identified beneficiaries and maximise the likelihood of the identified benefits being achieved?', the answer is that one of the outputs of this OTG is the submission of two research grants, one for each of the two themes identified (refer to JoR for more information).

Theme 1. Improved regional and operational coastal flooding model for the SW of England - Initial impact for this theme will mainly be achieved through implementing the improvements obtained from the collaboration at the visited institutions (especially to USGS) into our current OWWL model (See TR and JoR). The main pathway to this impact is through the involvement of the Flood Forecasting team in Exeter, as well as several regional coastal managers in Devon and Cornwall with whom we have very good working relationships. We currently meet several times a year with the Flood Forecasting team to evaluate our model performance, validation and improvements, and also discuss how our model can be incorporated into the EA's current suite of forecasting tools. Further and more impact is expected to result from future research projects, and one of the specific outputs of this OTG grant is to submit one standard research grant proposal to EPSRC, focussing on modelling coastal flood risk, including the morphological response and its influence on flooding.

Theme 2. Improved modelling capability response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise - . Impact from this theme will be initially achieved through publication of several papers and capitalising on the media interest that inevitably surrounds the fate of coral reef islands. We are also in the process of recruiting a PhD student, due to start October 2019, who will focus on this topic and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is involved as a major stakeholder in this project. Involvement of UNEP will provide a useful pathway to impact, e.g., through their Regional Seas Programme, Coral Reef Unit and International Coral Reef Initiative. Most importantly, however, this travel grant will help design and frame a large grant proposal to be submitted to NERC, defined around the topic of morphodynamic response of coral reef islands to SLR; this project will involve UNEP as a Project Partner and is expected to involve a very significant number of local end users and stakeholders to help produce impact. Specifically, we will liaise with local/regional/national authorities in Maldives, Kiribati and Marshall Islands, and provide scientific input into UNEP's Toolkits for Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change. The impact of this OTG will be to provide the groundwork for the subsequent large NERC grant proposal.
 
Description Coral reef islands can adjust to sea-level rise by building vertically and this can potentially extend the period of habitability of these islands.
Exploitation Route The notion that coral reef islands can morphologically adjust might provide alternative adaptation pathways for island communities. Based on the research conducted during this grant, a research proposal was submitted to the ERC and this application was successful: Natural Adaptation of Atoll Islands to Sea-Level Rise Offering Opportunities for Ongoing Human Occupation (ARISE) (PI) (£2,771k)
Sectors Environment

URL https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/island-drowning-is-not-inevitable-as-sea-levels-rise
 
Description This grant was an overseas travel grant so not directly associated with conducting a research project. The travel was much affected by COVID and no travel to US was carried out. Instead most effort was directed towards work on atoll islands in the Maldives and three visits were made. Apart from several publications and conference papers, nd collaborations with the Maldives government and the Maldives National University, a large grant proposal (£2,8M) was submitted to the ERC based on this work: Natural Adaptation of Atoll Islands to Sea-Level Rise Offering Opportunities for Ongoing Human Occupation (ARISE). This proposal was successful and work on this 5-year project will commence in 2023. This would not have happened without this OTG.
First Year Of Impact 2022
 
Description Collaboration USGS 
Organisation US Geological Survey
Country United States 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Co-writing papers;
Collaborator Contribution co-writing papers; co-supervision of PhD student
Impact Several papers listed under the CMESSLR project
Start Year 2018
 
Description collaboration with Prof. Paul Kench 
Organisation Simon Fraser University
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution We have been working together on the topic of impacts of sea-level rise on coral reef islands. Prof. Kench invited me on one of his research trips to the Maldives in February 2020 and we have been working on and publishing papers on this topic. Prof Kench is also a Visiting Researcher on a recently submitted standard NERC grant.
Collaborator Contribution We have been working together on the topic of impacts of sea-level rise on coral reef islands. Prof. Kench invited me on one of his research trips to the Maldives in February 2020 and we have been working on and publishing papers on this topic. Prof Kench is also a Visiting Researcher on a recently submitted standard NERC grant.
Impact Masselink, G., Tuck, M., McCall, R., van Dongeren, A., Ford, M. and Kench, P., 2018. Physical and numerical modelling of infragravity wave generation and transformation on coral reef platforms. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans), 124. [https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014411] OP Tuck, M., Kench, P., Ford, M. and Masselink, G., 2019. Physical modelling of the response of reef islands to sea level rise. Geology, 47, 803-806. [https://doi.org/10.1130/G46362.1] OP Tuck, M., Ford, M., Masselink, G. and Kench, P., 2019. Physical modelling of reef island topographic response to rising sea levels. Geomorphology, 345, 106833. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2019.106833] no OP Masselink, G., Beetham, E. and Kench, P., 2020. Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise. Science Advances, 6, eaay3656. [https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay3656] OP
Start Year 2017
 
Description Media activity related to coral reef island research 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact several newspaper articles and media appearances:
• 15/07/20 - Article in EOS ('A brighter future for coral reef islands') https://eos.org/articles/a-brighter-future-for-coral-reef-islands
• June/20 - Articles on impact of sea-level rise on coral reef islands in South China Morning Post, Sky tg24, Hindustan Times, Science Daily, Science Mag, Otago Daily times, This is Money, EurekaAlert, ERR.ee, Phys.org, Infosurhoy, Haaretz, Heliingin Sanomat, Index, Yorkshire Post, the Herald
• 12/06/20 - Article in the Science of Everything ('Do we think enough about sand') https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/earth-sciences/do-we-think-enough-about-sand/
• 11/06/20 - Article in The Daily Mirror ('Coral islands 'can survive' sea level rise')
• 11/06/20 - Article in Mail Online ('Coral reef islands like the Maldives could survive sea level rise caused by global warming because 'they have a natural ability to adapt', study claims') https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8407459/Coral-islands-like-Maldives-survive-sea-level-rise.html
• 10/06/20 - Newsweek email interview ('Coral Reef Islands May Not Be Doomed by Sea Level Rise, Scientists Say coral reef islands') https://www.newsweek.com/coral-reef-islands-doomed-sea-level-rise-scientists-1509915
• 10/06/20 - Press release ('Island 'drowning' is not inevitable as sea levels rise') https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/island-drowning-is-not-inevitable-as-sea-levels-rise
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at the Maldives National University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A seminar title 'Atoll islands are capable of building up vertically by overwash' at Maldives National University, Male, Maldives. This was attended by a wide audience, including academics and policy makers, including the Maldives Housing minister.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Seminars at various institutions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Several presentations:

Importance of wave directionality on coastal storm impacts - Case study of Start Bay on south coast of England:
o Technical University Delft, Netherlands
o Deltares, Netherlands
o Twente University, Netherlands
o WRL, UNSW, Australia
o Sydney University, Australia
o Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, New York, USA

Modelling response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise:
o Deltares, Netherlands
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Several press engagement associated with atoll island research 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Many press engagements following press release:
06/07/20 - Mention of coral reef island research in article on climate change in the Australian ('Stoking fear a fool's game for media promoting panic over climate change').
15/07/20 - Article in EOS ('A brighter future for coral reef islands') https://eos.org/articles/a-brighter-future-for-coral-reef-islands
June/20 - Articles on impact of sea-level rise on coral reef islands in South China Morning Post, Sky tg24, Hindustan Times, Science Daily, Science Mag, Otago Daily times, This is Money, EurekaAlert, ERR.ee, Phys.org, Infosurhoy, Haaretz, Heliingin Sanomat, Index, Yorkshire Post, the Herald
11/06/20 - Article in The Daily Mirror ('Coral islands 'can survive' sea level rise')
11/06/20 - Article in Mail Online ('Coral reef islands like the Maldives could survive sea level rise caused by global warming because 'they have a natural ability to adapt', study claims') https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8407459/Coral-islands-like-Maldives-survive-sea-level-rise.html
10/06/20 - Newsweek email interview ('Coral Reef Islands May Not Be Doomed by Sea Level Rise, Scientists Say coral reef islands') https://www.newsweek.com/coral-reef-islands-doomed-sea-level-rise-scientists-1509915
10/06/20 - Press release ('Island 'drowning' is not inevitable as sea levels rise') https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/island-drowning-is-not-inevitable-as-sea-levels-rise
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Zoominar on the future of coral atoll islands 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Europe-wide Zoominar series for the EU coastal community. Mainly attended by coastal scientists. More than 50 people attended.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021