Network headroom, engineering upgrades and public acceptance (NEUPA): Connecting engineering for heat system change to consumers and citizens

Lead Research Organisation: Imperial College London
Department Name: Centre for Environmental Policy

Abstract

The project will provide the UK's first 'map' of network capacity and headroom and consider case studies in different parts of the UK in detail. It will also assess how heat and cooling demand might change in future using weather data. Based on all this the project will evaluate the nature of potential disruption in local communities created by heat system decarbonisation. It will engage with citizens to investigate their perceptions and expectations of heat system change.

There are significant information gaps associated with the capacity of local energy distribution networks (gas, electricity and heat) to deliver energy for low carbon heating and cooling. Competing options include converting the gas grid to hydrogen, expanding electrification using heat pumps, and district heating. A key consideration is the nature of any constraints on the capacity of local networks, in particular the ability to deliver energy needed to meet peak demands, which can be far higher than average during extreme cold spells and perhaps in future during heat waves. Lack of both data and understanding of what disruption might be associated with heat system change are serious impediments to policy action on heat system decarbonisation. Research commissioned by the Committee on Climate Change analysis of a net zero target for 2050 concludes that utilisation of distribution network capacity is poorly understood. The project sets out to overcome this gap in information by evaluating what is known about distribution network condition based upon information reported by network companies and through interviews and surveys involving industry participants. It will compare electricity and gas networks and also consider district heating.

Consumer acceptability of system change and local level disruption is also central to low carbon heat, yet it is similarly poorly understood and seldom linked to engineering detail at street or neighbourhood level. The project will use deliberative social science research to explore the expectations of citizens to the changes and disruption to local environments that might be associated with competing alternatives for delivering low carbon heating (and cooling) services to homes and businesses.

Recent work on heat decarbonisation is strong with respect to assessment of end use technology options (i.e. what goes into the buildings) and on supply energy vectors (which energy source is utilised). However, it is weak on engineering, economic and social assessment of infrastructure needs and trade-offs - particularly for the 'last mile' or distribution network infrastructures that bring energy services to homes and businesses. This project is explicitly focused on this 'last mile' of infrastructure and combines engineering evaluation and constraint modelling with social science insights from public engagement with proposed heating solutions and their associated disruption(s), to assess the impacts of heat system change and what people think about them.

Planned Impact

NEUPA will help the policy, academic and industrial communities to understand our gas, electricity and heat networks. This includes infrastructure constraints, upgrade requirements and the requisite size, key characteristics, and public acceptability of future heat and cooling provision technologies. NEUPA will engage wider stakeholders by disseminating through traditional and online media. It will provide information about the capacity of local networks to provide low carbon heating and cooling, recognising the operational characteristics of technologies, the service choices made by people and businesses, and policy goals. In particular it will disseminate new information about disruption to local neighbourhoods for particular technology mixes, alongside in-depth understanding of how local communities are likely to view such changes. In this way the project will help and facilitate governments and the regulator in formulating markets and regulations to direct investment and take strategic choices about infrastructure and incentives.

The research will benefit academics across energy-related engineering, economics, environmental and social sciences disciplines, as well as stakeholder bodies involved in informing and taking decisions about energy systems renewal, such as National Infrastructure Commission and Committee on Climate Change. The project is partnering directly with BEIS, Greater London Authority, Scottish Government, Welsh Government, CCC and network companies. We will engage with these organisations (and others) directly through policy briefings, workshops and roundtables to give them a closer connection to our research. Policy users will be involved from the outset, ensuring the research is properly co-designed, through a Steering Group.

Policy briefs on each key topic will be produced, together with synthesis reports, and a wrap-up dissemination workshop. Reports will be launched through the Energy Futures Lab at Imperial College in collaboration with Strathclyde, Cardiff and the partner bodies above. For a wider audience, the project will use the Energy Futures Lab energy blogs and social media, as well as coverage and guest editorials and media articles in UK and International press. The project aims to identify those technologies which have commercial potential and work with our technology transfer team at Imperial College Innovations, the Imperial Cleantech Cluster, and the FLEXIS project in South Wales, to identify partners and support development. The models of heat and future cooling demand developed here will be made available through the open-access Renewables.ninja platform, making it easy for others to use and benefit from the methodological advances, and helping to drive wider uptake of UK science. The project will also establish a programme of outreach events, webinars, case studies and networking opportunities focused on wider engagement participation between academia and local, national and international business communities.
International agencies such as the International Energy Agency have also engaged with the research team on low carbon heating and cooling and we will seek opportunities to engage at international forums and events. The project team are currently co-authoring the 2019 World Energy Outlook, and are in discussions to involve NEUPA's outputs in future IEA publications, ensuring a global audience for this project.

We will use the network and platform of Energy Futures Lab to maximize impact and visibility internally and externally. For young people, engagement activities will focus upon school visits, using our facilities to illustrate the key drivers behind the programme, and promote the role of science, engineering and social sciences in solving complex societal problems. We will also contribute to the Imperial & Exhibition Road Festival and Fringe, ESRC Festival of Social Science and EPSRC festivals. Early career researchers will be fully engaged in all activities.
 
Description The research is still at a very preliminary stage. Emerging findings are:

• Headroom - The available data on network capacity utilisation in the last mile of electricity and gas networks is scarce.

Electricity networks have a scarcity of data on headroom. RIIO II business plans by DNOs include funding for increased monitoring to address this. In the absence of data, the NEUPA project has used historical design practices to identify headroom characteristics for a number of archetype groups. Homes built in the 1960s and 1970s, designed around electrical heating are likely to have the most headroom currently. Homes built during a similar period and designed around gas heating are likely to have some of the more challenging headroom conditions for future electrification of heat.

Gas networks are currently modelling future hydrogen network capacity in conjunction with government. The expectation from this modelling is that network capacity concerns are minimal for hydrogen repurposing of the existing gas grid given the reducing number consumers using the gas network in the future and the existing high capacity of gas network assets.

• Consumer attitudes to disruption - The disruption associated with electricity or gas network upgrades appears to be of second order importance to consumers, particularly considering the current high energy prices, which influence consumer attitudes more significantly. The types of disruption associated with different types of heat technologies do not appear to be a significant deciding factor in consumer heat technology choice.
These findings are currently incomplete and subject to the completion of research.
Exploitation Route We have both industry and governments on the project steering group. The research was proposed in part as a response to needs identified by users in the policymaker community. Throughout the duration of the project we will ensure research is co-produced with users. We expect the outcomes to inform UK and national government level policies, local authorities, Ofgem, the Climate Change Committee and network operators.
Sectors Energy

Environment

Government

Democracy and Justice

 
Description Our preliminary work has informed UKERC policy outputs. It has also been presented to stakeholders including UK and Welsh, Scottish governments, Climate Change Committee and industry.
First Year Of Impact 2020
Sector Energy
Impact Types Economic

Policy & public services

 
Description BEIS Consultation Future support for low carbon heat UKERC Consultation Response
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
URL https://d2e1qxpsswcpgz.cloudfront.net/uploads/2020/07/UKERC-response_BEIS-Future-of-low-carbon-heat_...
 
Description Input to Net Zero Review conducted by Chris Skidmore
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe) Breakfast Seminar:
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
 
Description Submission to House of Commons Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Heating our Homes Consultation. UK Energy Research Centre.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Helped shape public debate.
 
Description Written evidence submission to Wales Government Just Net Zero Transition consultation, March 2023. Pidgeon, Gross, Henwood et al
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact Submission led to several meetings between the Cardiff Team and Welsh Government Officials. Helping shape Welsh Government Net Zero policy.
 
Description Hydrogen Integration for Accelerated Energy Transitions Hub (HI-ACT)
Amount £10,675,390 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/X038823/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 05/2023 
End 05/2028
 
Description Impact Acceleration Account
Amount £50,000 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/X52556X/1 
Organisation Imperial College London 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2023 
End 06/2023
 
Description UK Centre for Research on Energy Demand (EPSRC: Energy Efficiency)
Amount £19,435,274 (GBP)
Funding ID EP/R035288/1 
Organisation Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2022 
End 02/2023
 
Description 'Social Science and Industrial Decarbonization', Wales Climate Week, 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Karen Henwood (henwoodK@cardiff.ac.uk) organised, Gareth and Nick participated, a session on 'Social Science and Industrial Decarbonization', Wales Climate Week, 21/11/2022. Meeting Url https://www.climateweek.gov.wales/EN/WalesClimateWeek2022/on-demand
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://www.climateweek.gov.wales/EN/WalesClimateWeek2022/on-demand
 
Description Heating Homes : A Local Community Exhibition 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact "Heating Homes: Disrupting homes and neighborhood on the route to net zero" was a public exhibition showing how the new technologies needed to make heating climate safe could mean changes to the fabric of our homes, communities, and how we pay for energy. Visitors to a community center in the City of Cardiff had an opportunity to join in a wider ranging conversation about what net zero might mean not only in contemporary policy making, for technology development, or for energy consumers but in ways that were accessible to families and citizens. To extend their potentials for impact, exhibits and engagement activities made use of multimodal techniques. The exhibition was funded by the EPSRC project NEUPA (2020-2023) and was part of the ESRC's Festival of Social Sciences.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/heating-homes-disrupting-homes-neighbourhoods-on-the-route-to-net-zer...
 
Description I attended the advisory board meeting of the BEIS Hy4Heat (Hydrogen for Heat) Programme on 10th November 2020. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Participation in an advisory panel at BEIS as part of the Hy4Heat project.
"Our mission is to establish if it is technically possible, safe and convenient to replace natural gas (methane) with hydrogen in residential and commercial buildings and gas appliances. This will enable government to determine whether to proceed to community trial."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.hy4heat.info
 
Description Infrastructure & Supply Chain for Net Zero Delivery - A Strategic Approach: panelist 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Participation as panellist in panel session as part of one day conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Meeting with Neat Port Talbot Council South Wales energy policy team 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact NUEPA Cardiff Team (contact henwoodk@cardiff.ac.uk) met with members of Neat Port Talbot Council South Wales energy policy team to discuss local energy planning, 1st December 2022
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description NEUPA Steering Group Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact This is a regular steering group meeting, conducted twice a year. The meeting brings together stakeholders from industry, government, academia and the third sector. The meeting is designed to give an external expert audience the chance to review project progress and intended direction and provide guidance and opinion on the project direction.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020,2021
 
Description NEUPA Steering Group meeting in September 2022 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact A steering group meeting of industry, government and academics to diseinate research progress, receive guidance from experts and inform next phase of research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description News Blog on HiAct Research Hub website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact When public engagement goes wrong: Learning from a hydrogen village trial - HI ACT (hi-act.ac.uk)

Drawing on original research evidence from the EPSRC funded NEUPA project as well HiAct - a new major UK energy/infrastructure investment, this blog post
prompted an immediate email acknowledging it's interest and value from a key figure in UK national government (DESNZ).

"When public engagement goes wrong: Learning from a hydrogen village trial" [A HiAct News Blog], Gareth Thomas and Karen Henwood, first published December 15th 2023.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://hi-act.ac.uk/blogs/when-public-engagement-goes-wrong-learning-from-a-hydrogen-village-trial
 
Description Participation in RAEng - Scottish Government meeting on the Scottish Heat Strategy for Buildings 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nick Pidgeon attended an invited meeting held by the Royal Academy of Engineering and Scottish Government policy makers on 8th February to discuss the Scottish Heat Strategy for Buildings. Discussions centred around some of our methodologies for engaging publics with heating system upgrades and their relevance to Scottish heat policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Scottish Government-RAEng workshop on Heat in Buildings Public Engagement Strategy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nick Pidgeon (contact pidgeonn@cardiff.ac.uk) took part in a 'Scottish Government-RAEng workshop on Heat in Buildings Public Engagement Strategy', 27th and 29th July 2022
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
 
Description Scottish Power Energy Networks and University of Strathclyde Liaison Meeting on Electricity Network Upgrades 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The purpose of the meeting was to discuss electricity network planning and modelling challenges with respect to the decarbonisation of heat and mobility. The meeting involved participants from industry and academia and was chaired by NEUPA researchers based at Strathclyde. Industrial expertise obtained during the meeting has informed evidence gathering activities for the NEUPA project.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Workshops with members of the public to deliberate the opportunities and challenges of heat decarbonisation and network upgrade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Workshops with members of the public to deliberate the opportunities and challenges of heat decarbonisation and network upgrade. In total 48 members of the public participated over six days.

28th & 29th Sep 2022- Cardiff- 15 participants
12th Oct 2022- Gloucester- 8 participants
9th Nov 2022- Hawick- 8 participants
17th & 18th- Liverpool- 18 participants
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022