Towards Zero Carbon Aviation (TOZCA)
Lead Research Organisation:
University College London
Department Name: Bartlett Sch of Env, Energy & Resources
Abstract
In 2015, global passenger and freight commercial aircraft accounted for 866 million tonnes or 2.7% of energy use-related CO2 emissions, which is more than twice the amount released by the entire UK economy. If air passenger and freight revenue tonne-km (RTK) continue to grow at around 4.5% per year and aircraft fleet fuel use per RTK continues to decline by 2% per year, the projected stronger growth in RTK would lead to an increase in CO2 emissions by 2.5% per year, a doubling by 2050. This growth trend in CO2 emissions is in strong contrast to global efforts to reduce economy-wide CO2 emissions as mandated by the Paris Agreement.
Whereas simple arithmetic implies that a net zero-carbon aviation system can only be achieved through disruptive aircraft technologies and fuels, its most cost-effective composition remains unclear. Such knowledge is critical as vast investments will be required by aircraft manufacturers, fuel suppliers, airlines and airports to accomplish the transition. In addition, transitioning towards a net zero-carbon aviation system requires understanding the underlying technology roadmap, complemented by enabling policy measures and identification of early adopters. At the same time, the multiple time lags in the aviation system, from developing an early concept to fleet adoption of the final product, in addition to the long lifetime of commercial aircraft in the order of 25 years, demand swift action to generate a significant impact by mid-century. This, in turn, requires that all CO2 mitigation options are considered, including travel demand management, which necessitates an improved understanding of travel behaviour.
The TOZCA project will develop a comprehensive tool suite to simulate the most cost-effective transition toward a net zero-carbon aviation system by 2050 and a later 2070 date. Using this tool suite, the TOZCA project will identify the technological, economic and environmental synergies and trade-offs that result from drastic CO2 emissions reductions through changes in technology, fuels, operations, use of competing modes and change in consumer behaviour.
Whereas simple arithmetic implies that a net zero-carbon aviation system can only be achieved through disruptive aircraft technologies and fuels, its most cost-effective composition remains unclear. Such knowledge is critical as vast investments will be required by aircraft manufacturers, fuel suppliers, airlines and airports to accomplish the transition. In addition, transitioning towards a net zero-carbon aviation system requires understanding the underlying technology roadmap, complemented by enabling policy measures and identification of early adopters. At the same time, the multiple time lags in the aviation system, from developing an early concept to fleet adoption of the final product, in addition to the long lifetime of commercial aircraft in the order of 25 years, demand swift action to generate a significant impact by mid-century. This, in turn, requires that all CO2 mitigation options are considered, including travel demand management, which necessitates an improved understanding of travel behaviour.
The TOZCA project will develop a comprehensive tool suite to simulate the most cost-effective transition toward a net zero-carbon aviation system by 2050 and a later 2070 date. Using this tool suite, the TOZCA project will identify the technological, economic and environmental synergies and trade-offs that result from drastic CO2 emissions reductions through changes in technology, fuels, operations, use of competing modes and change in consumer behaviour.
Planned Impact
The TOZCA systems model and the related systematic analysis of how to transition toward a net-zero carbon aviation sector will enable more informed technology investments and policy decisions for reducing aviation sector CO2 emissions on both a national and international level, thus directly benefitting government and industry and ultimately furthering society at large. This important impact is articulated by many stakeholders in their letter of support.
For example, the CEO of the ADS Group writes "... the proposed research will be critical in helping us understand the route towards a 'whole system' net-zero CO2 emissions aviation system and the outcomes from the proposed research will be invaluable in understanding the policy interventions and technology investments required. This research is critical to enable the UK aerospace industry and Government to develop a shared approach to tackling climate change and to play a lead role in driving international policy and investments."
The CTO of the Aerospace Technology Institute states that "this work will be vital in guiding the UK's technology road map to a lower carbon future for aviation in the UK and will have broader global impact".
The Chair of Sustainable Aviation writes "This research proposal is important because it will enable a deeper, independent analysis of the aviation decarbonisation opportunities. Sustainable Aviation believes this will be invaluable in terms of building on the work our CO2 Road-Map has set out to date ... The new tool should also enable independent analysis of the situation for all stakeholders."
The Deputy Director, Aviation and Maritime Analysis Division at the DfT writes "This project ... will feed into informing the Departments UK based aviation carbon policy in the Aviation 2050 White Paper (and associated Aviation Carbon Road Map) and the international sphere in helping inform the UK's position at the United Nations ICAO climate negotiations. Whilst other studies are starting to emerge in this area, the proposed depth and detail of this proposal suggests it would be a significant step forward ..."
The Group Head of Sustainability at IAG writes "Robust analysis of the various technological, operational, business model and competitive facets of this challenge will help with strategy development. BA would find such a capability a valuable addition to the suite of fore-sighting capabilities upon which it draws for its development planning and its strategy to reduce carbon intensity."
The Interim Director of the Heathrow Centre of Excellence for Sustainability writes "Your proposal exploring how to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while meeting demand and maintaining the economic and strategic importance of the sector speaks to the heart of the collective challenge ahead. The whole sector - and wider economy - stands to benefit from detailed academic research and robust systematic analysis."
The Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for Environment and Energy at the US Federal Aviation Administration writes "This longer-range and system-level perspective will provide a needed strategic view that I anticipate will significantly inform government and industry decision-makers in the U.S. and U.K. in the decades to come."
Multiple paths will be pursued to maximise stakeholder benefit. In addition to disseminating results through the already existing website, conference presentations and publications, existing networks will be exploited. We will assemble an advisory board with 15-20 key stakeholder representatives from government, industry, and NGOs at the beginning of the grant lifecycle to ensure that the direction of the research is consistent with their needs. We will also organise three stakeholder workshops, which serve as milestones and as a vehicle to disseminate results to and receive feedback from stakeholders to refine the analyses in addition to a final conference.
For example, the CEO of the ADS Group writes "... the proposed research will be critical in helping us understand the route towards a 'whole system' net-zero CO2 emissions aviation system and the outcomes from the proposed research will be invaluable in understanding the policy interventions and technology investments required. This research is critical to enable the UK aerospace industry and Government to develop a shared approach to tackling climate change and to play a lead role in driving international policy and investments."
The CTO of the Aerospace Technology Institute states that "this work will be vital in guiding the UK's technology road map to a lower carbon future for aviation in the UK and will have broader global impact".
The Chair of Sustainable Aviation writes "This research proposal is important because it will enable a deeper, independent analysis of the aviation decarbonisation opportunities. Sustainable Aviation believes this will be invaluable in terms of building on the work our CO2 Road-Map has set out to date ... The new tool should also enable independent analysis of the situation for all stakeholders."
The Deputy Director, Aviation and Maritime Analysis Division at the DfT writes "This project ... will feed into informing the Departments UK based aviation carbon policy in the Aviation 2050 White Paper (and associated Aviation Carbon Road Map) and the international sphere in helping inform the UK's position at the United Nations ICAO climate negotiations. Whilst other studies are starting to emerge in this area, the proposed depth and detail of this proposal suggests it would be a significant step forward ..."
The Group Head of Sustainability at IAG writes "Robust analysis of the various technological, operational, business model and competitive facets of this challenge will help with strategy development. BA would find such a capability a valuable addition to the suite of fore-sighting capabilities upon which it draws for its development planning and its strategy to reduce carbon intensity."
The Interim Director of the Heathrow Centre of Excellence for Sustainability writes "Your proposal exploring how to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while meeting demand and maintaining the economic and strategic importance of the sector speaks to the heart of the collective challenge ahead. The whole sector - and wider economy - stands to benefit from detailed academic research and robust systematic analysis."
The Chief Scientific and Technical Advisor for Environment and Energy at the US Federal Aviation Administration writes "This longer-range and system-level perspective will provide a needed strategic view that I anticipate will significantly inform government and industry decision-makers in the U.S. and U.K. in the decades to come."
Multiple paths will be pursued to maximise stakeholder benefit. In addition to disseminating results through the already existing website, conference presentations and publications, existing networks will be exploited. We will assemble an advisory board with 15-20 key stakeholder representatives from government, industry, and NGOs at the beginning of the grant lifecycle to ensure that the direction of the research is consistent with their needs. We will also organise three stakeholder workshops, which serve as milestones and as a vehicle to disseminate results to and receive feedback from stakeholders to refine the analyses in addition to a final conference.
Organisations
- University College London (Lead Research Organisation)
- Economic and Social Research Council (Co-funder)
- Aerospace Technology Institute (Project Partner)
- GKN (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- CARDIFF UNIVERSITY (Project Partner)
- Department for Transport (Project Partner)
- Aviation Environment Federation (Project Partner)
- ADS Group (Project Partner)
- Heathrow Aiport Ltd (Project Partner)
- Sustainable Aviation (Project Partner)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Project Partner)
- National Air Traffic Services (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- VTI Swedish National Road and Transport (Project Partner)
- Airbus (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- Rolls-Royce (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- Beijing Jiaotong University (Project Partner)
- Willis Towers Watson (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- International Airlines Group (Project Partner)
- Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (Project Partner)
- Indian Institute of Science Bangalore (Project Partner)
- Shell (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
- Federal Aviation Administration (Project Partner)
- Arup Group (United Kingdom) (Project Partner)
Publications
Dray L
(2022)
Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation
in Nature Climate Change
Description | This research has generated revolutionary findings in the field of how airlines will react to climate policy. Our research shows that different types of airlines will react differently to climate policy, and the type of policy will determine airline profits. The latter can actually increase if CO2 emissions target are specified but would decline under a carbon tax. The current EU policy on regulating sustainable aviation fuels into the market is economically wasteful. Our models also allow--for the first time--the estimation of the value of airline slots at airport; conversation with the Department for Transport are ongoing. In addition, our models are capable of estimating the airline willingness to pay for sustainable aviation fuels, which is unique, given that all existing estimates are based on production costs. We are currently working on publications in high-impact journals and we experience strong interest from manufacturers, airlines, and airports. |
Exploitation Route | We are currently working on several publications in high-impact journals. We have also been discussing our methods and findings with government and industry (airlines, airports, manufacturers) at various occasions. We also received industry research funds as a result (the funding section in ResearchFish does not seem to allow listing those). We are also working on a programme grant application jointly with other universities. |
Sectors | Aerospace Defence and Marine Education Energy Financial Services and Management Consultancy Government Democracy and Justice Transport |
Description | We have met regularly with key stakeholders from the aviation industry (airlines, airports, manufacturers) and government to update them on our research. We ar experiencing great interest and anticipate even more interest once the key publications described above have been published. |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Energy,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Transport |
Title | Open source release of Airline Behaviour Model V1.0 |
Description | Our Airline Behaviour Model simulates the profit-maximising behaviour of competing air carriers through adjusting segment flight frequencies, itinerary airfares, and aircraft deployment within their respective network. The model can be used to simulate the local and global implications of airport capacity expansions, the introduction of disruptive technology, and regional and global ambitions towards a zero-climate impact aviation system. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2023 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | The model was just made publicly available |
URL | http://www.atslab.org/news/ |
Title | Updated Version of Open Source Code of an Integrated Global Aviation Systems Model |
Description | The Aviation Integrated Model (AIM) is a unique tool, consisting of interlinked modules simulating current and future levels of global airport-to-airport demand, flight schedules, arrival delay, technology uptake, aircraft performance, local and global emissions, aircraft noise, and the related environmental costs and economic benefits under a wide range of policy conditions. |
Type Of Material | Computer model/algorithm |
Year Produced | 2019 |
Provided To Others? | Yes |
Impact | This model has been widely used by government ministries, NGOs, and academics. |
URL | http://www.atslab.org/data-tools/ |
Description | Dissemination even at WillisTowersWatson (WTW) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | WTW is a keen supporter of our research and organised an event with key stakeholders for us to disseminate interim research results |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | IATA Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Plenary talk at IATA Aviation Energy Forum |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://www.iata.org/en/events/all/iata-aviation-energy-forum/#tab-6 |
Description | ITF/OECD workshop on the consequences of decarbonising aviation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | At this workshop, we presented our interim findings that relate to decarbonising aviation, some of which being counterintuitive, such as airline profits can increase under certain CO2 mitigation policies. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
Description | Research meeting with UK Department for Transport representatives |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Following request from the DfT, we meet annually to update them in our research results. Of particular interest has been the application of our Airline Behaviour Model to airport slot pricing. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Seminar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Presentation in seminar series of Brahmal Institute, Imperial College London |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://www.imperial.ac.uk/brahmal-institute/events/ |
Description | The Influence of Airline Business Models on Hydrogen Aircraft Uptake in Europe |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Dr Yagmur Simge-Gok gave a poster at the 2024 TRB Conference in Washington DC |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://www.trb.org/AnnualMeeting/AnnualMeeting.aspx |
Description | Transportation Research Board Conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Dr Khan Doyme gave a talk on this topic to the TRB Airlines Subcommittee on 9 Jan 2024 in Washington DC |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
URL | https://www.trb.org/AnnualMeeting/AnnualMeeting.aspx |
Description | Workshop organisation: "Managing the Transition Towards Net-Zero Climate Impacts in Aviation"organisation: |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | On 2 February 2023, the ATSlab hosted a one-day workshop in Central London on how aviation can transition towards net-zero climate impacts. The event, which was co-organized with Norway's leading climate science institute "Center for International Climate Research" (CICERO), included key stakeholders of the aviation value chain, i.e., airlines, airports, fuel producers, manufacturers, finance and insurance industry, and government, complemented by academic researchers. The 44 participants represented institutions in the UK, Norway, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany, the US, and Japan. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | http://www.atslab.org/atslab-hosted-managing-the-transition-towards-net-zero-climate-impacts-in-avia... |