4-D Modeller

Lead Research Organisation: University of Bristol
Department Name: Geographical Sciences

Abstract

The exponential growth in open-source data that is underway has been called the 4th industrial revolution. Data analytics is a huge market growth sector. Most of the data that are relevant to public good are open source. These data offer immense potential for tackling societal challenges and providing resources to end users but they present their own challenges on how to generate timely, actionable information from the vast, and evolving, datasets available. An example of this type of challenge is the wealth of Earth Observation data that are increasingly available through, for example, the EU Copernicus Programme. Terrabytes of data are transmitted daily. To extract useful information on, for example, evolving patterns of precipitation extremes, airborne pollution, ocean navigation hazards in ice infested waters or human and faunal heat stress usually requires specialist knowledge and specialist tools. This type of challenge: solving for multiple processes in four dimensions (4-D), i.e. in space and time, is common to an extremely broad class of problems ranging from Earth and atmospheric processes, epidemiology, disease transmission, human activities such as migration, crime, terrorism, consumption patterns, traffic flow, pollution modelling, infrastructure planning, population dynamics agricultural modelling, as well as non-human biology such as ecosystem dynamics. The aim of this Proof Of Concept proposal is to develop a flexible tool to tackle this class of problem, called 4-D Modeller. The tool will be fully scalable (i.e. able to address problems from local to global scale and datasets from thousands to >10^9 observations) and portable. It will be suitable for a range of computing platforms, will be fully documented, tested and include examples from environmental and epidemiological science. The concept builds on a decade of development and experience in tackling large scale 4-D challenges in geoscience.
 
Description 4Dmodeller is a software package designed to help newcomers with no experience in Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling to apply these complex statistical techniques to a wide range of large-scale, space-time (i.e. four-dimensional) problems.
Exploitation Route The software could be further developed and improved, and applied to a wider range of space-time datasets
Sectors Energy

Environment

Healthcare

Transport

URL https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FX022641%2F1#
 
Description SSF-Svalbard Science Forum
Amount krĀ 500,000 (NOK)
Funding ID 344823 
Organisation Research Council of Norway 
Sector Public
Country Norway
Start  
 
Description Collaboration with John Aiken (Expert Analytics and UiO) 
Organisation University of Oslo
Country Norway 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development, testing and application of the 4Dmodeller software
Collaborator Contribution Development, testing and application of the 4Dmodeller software
Impact - Yin X, Aiken JM and Bamber JL, 2023. fdmr: A Comprehensive R Package for Spatio-Temporal Modelling. UC Santa Barbara: Center for Spatial Studies. 10.25436/E27C7F - Yin X, Aiken JM, Harris R and Bamber JL, 2023. Spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19 and its associations with socioeconomic, demographic and environmental factors in England: A Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model. arXiv:2308.09404. - Aiken JM, Yin X, Royston S, Ziegler Y and Bamber JL, 2023. From Sea Level Rise to COVID-19: Extending a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to unfamiliar problems with the 4D-Modeller framework, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24-28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1680. 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1680.
Start Year 2022
 
Title 4DModeller 
Description 4DModeller is a spatio-temporal modelling package that can be applied to problems at any scale from micro to processes that operate at a global scale. It includes data visualization tools, finite element mesh building tools, Bayesian hierarchical modelling based on Bayesian inference packages INLA and inlabru, and model evaluation and assessment tools. 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2023 
Open Source License? Yes  
Impact 4Dmodeller allows generalisation of this approach developed in the ERC-funded GlobalMass grant (www.globalmass.eu) that advanced the use of space-time statistical inference to separate global sea level rise into its different sources. As such, it is capable of solving a wide range of large-scale, space-time (i.e. four-dimensional) problems. Examples to date include prediction of covid-19 rates across England (https://4dmodeller.github.io/fdmr/articles/covid.html) and prediction of river discharge in the Kvilldal dam area of Norway (https://4dmodeller.github.io/fdmr/articles/hydro.html). 
URL http://dx.doi.org/10.25436/E27C7F
 
Description 4Dmodeller Hackathon in Bristol 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A two-day hackathon at the University of Bristol to use and develop the 4Dmodeller (FDMR) software package.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://4dmodeller.github.io/4DM_Hackathon/
 
Description 4Dmodeller Hackathon in Oslo 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A two-day hackathon at the University of Oslo to use and develop the 4Dmodeller (FDMR) software package.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.linkedin.com/posts/expert-analytics_the-spatio-temporal-modelling-4dm-hackathon-activity...