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Cyber Statecraft in an Era of Systemic Competition

Lead Research Organisation: King's College London
Department Name: War Studies

Abstract

The UK wants to develop and assert its identity as a responsible, democratic cyber power. This project will provide it with the conceptual tools and empirical knowledge to do so, contributing to the efficacy and impact of UK international cyber statecraft over the next decade.

Global cyber security and governance are at a critical juncture. Efforts to develop the rules, norms and values of cyberspace reflect shifting international power dynamics and express and sustain competing political visions of what and who cyber security is for. Liberal democracies like the UK uphold the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance and its adherence to openness and interoperability. This is challenged by China, Russia and their strategic partners, which pursue models of 'cyber sovereignty' that impose national territorialities on cyberspace to bolster regime security and the domestic suppression of political expression and mobilisation. Between these competing poles lie diverse national and regional perspectives in the so-called 'middle ground' of global cyber security and governance.

The centrality of the international dimension of cyber security is reflected in the UK Government's national strategies. The Integrated Review and subsequent National Cyber Strategy outline the UK's ambition to be a 'responsible, democratic cyber power'. Pillar 4 of the National Cyber Strategy, 'Global leadership', articulates the UK's aim to exert influence in international cyber security based on liberal democratic values. These high-level strategic documents note that contesting the future of cyberspace dovetails with the UK's broader foreign policy challenges and opportunities. This is a bold ambition. To achieve it, the UK needs to set clear objectives and embrace 'cyber statecraft', understood generically as strategic approaches for securing the national interest in and through cyberspace, using all levers of national power and marshalling the private sector and civil society in a 'whole-of-society' effort. However, questions and challenges persist about how to conduct cyber statecraft in an impactful fashion.

The project will address significant gaps in conceptual and empirical knowledge about the nature and character of cyber power, the diverse practices of cyber statecraft, the types of actors that conduct cyber statecraft (including, perhaps, non-state actors like firms), and case studies of cyber statecraft in action. It will provide theoretical foundations for the core concepts of cyber statecraft and cyber power and practical recommendations to policymakers and practitioners. The project addresses core concerns of UK security and cyber security policy, particularly in the international aspects and ambitions articulated in recent high-level government strategies. It also aligns with the aspirations of EPSRC's Digital Security and Resilience Theme in engaging with the UK's cyber security challenges and building national capacity and capability in this area. The project will establish a nationally important body of work that feeds directly into government and multistakeholder conversations and decision-making about the international aspects of UK cyber statecraft. Working with a diverse range of partners, the project team will deliver impactful research to academia, UK Government and wider society, informing policy and future research on best practices and competing approaches to cyber statecraft in an era of systemic competition.

The project comprises three Work Packages (WP), each of which relates closely to key themes of UK security strategy and supports the ambitions of UK Government and RISCS. These will be further enhanced by a cross-cutting Engagement Plan.
WP1. Theory, practice and evaluation of cyber statecraft.
WP2. Middle-ground cyber competition and statecraft.
WP3. Role of the private sector in cyber statecraft.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Work Package 1

The workshops produced fruitful discussions with a range of stakeholders across academia, government, and industry. We unpacked how different actors understood the UK's cyber statecraft and cyber power and introduced different organisations to academic discussions associated with the concepts. The workshops also gave us important insights into the theorisation of key concepts (e.g., cyber statecraft, cyber power) and the development of a methodology to measure cyber power.

Our first academic paper, in an advanced draft format (to be submitted for potential publication in April 2025), argues that cyber statecraft should be the default concept to understand state action in cyberspace. To understand the concept, we offer a theoretical framework that treats cyber statecraft as a set of instruments that states select to advance their goals in and through cyberspace.

Our second paper, also in draft format (presented at the International Studies Association Convention in Chicago, March 2025), argues that strategic narratives are an instrument of cyber statecraft. Focusing on the United Kingdom's narrative of itself as a 'Responsible Democratic Cyber Power', we show how the UK articulates its own activities in and through cyberspace, largely in opposition to perceived irresponsible actors and their activities. This paper will be submitted for potential publication in May 2025.

In a third draft academic paper (presented at the International Studies Association Convention in Chicago, March 2025), we develop a structured approach to mapping cyber power using prototyping and co-occurrence analysis, identifying distinct narratives across academic literature, media, and think-tank reports. By clarifying how cyber power is framed and proposing a working definition, our research advances understanding of its strategic, institutional, and geopolitical dimensions, with implications for measurement and policymaking.

Work Package 2

One emerging finding from our research is that cross-government coordination (and thus, ultimately, strategic coherence) is variable across the selected states (Brazil, India and South Africa). This is an insight we tested in our December 2024 roundtable discussion, exploring how best to interpret the perception that there is a gap between, on one hand, positions taken by each state in multilateral cyber diplomacy, especially regarding norms of responsible state behaviour in cyberspace, and, on the other, the approach (particularly regarding India) of the respective governments towards the more operational aspects of cyber statecraft. This is potentially consequential as it could call into doubt the strength of the evolving norms diplomacy consensus in the so-called global "middle ground".

Convening the research roundtable on cyber statecraft in India and South Africa was an important step in developing a community of researchers focusing on this topic. The roundtable was influential in cultivating a shared sense of a research agenda regarding both countries and the relationship between academic research on cyber statecraft and growing public understanding of this as a policy and strategic issue in India and South Africa. The forthcoming publication, Interpreting India's Cyber Statecraft, should continue this agenda.
Work Package 3

Given that the research outputs are still under production, we are still to provide the conclusive findings of the project. In any case, the first article output developes a new and arguably the first typology on private sector influence in cyber statecraft, drawing on subsectors such as cyber threat intelligence, big tech companies, defence contractors and cybersecurity consultancies. The paper-still under review-illustrates the similarities and differences of how each of these sub-sectors engage with governments and seek to influence them.
Exploitation Route At present, we intend through engagement activities yet to come, to disseminate your findings to the UK policy and practitioner communities, as per the requirements of the funding call.
Sectors Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software)

Education

Government

Democracy and Justice

Security and Diplomacy

 
Description Still too early to determine. The level of engagement throughout the project highlights the relevance and the convening power that project institutions have in supporting the public debate on critical policy agendas related to cyber statecraft. Stakeholders have informally reported that these engagement activities have enhanced their understanding of key issues, such as the cyber statecraft activities of states (UK, Brazil, South Africa, India) and the role of the private sector. We are now entering a publication and dissemination phase, where we will discuss our findings with wider audience. It will not be easy to capture the impact of these activities. One additional example is that RUSI managed to successfully secure a partnership with the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs in the organisation of one of our workshops-which demonstrates the trust and reputation we have leveraged to deliver impactful engagement to inform our research process in the interim.
 
Title Co-occurrence analysis of cyber power 
Description Work Stream 3 of Work Package 1 (Bath) introduces co-occurrence analysis as a novel technique for mapping the dimensions of cyber power and testing its conceptual boundaries in academic discourse, print media and policy. Our R script, which will be made available later in the year, allows scholars to conduct textual mapping exercises in a replicable and transparent manner. WS3 is also devising an econometric model to capture the relational aspects of cyber power, which is being informed by the data and input from the researchers in this project. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact tbc 
 
Description Book Launch: The Rise of Ransomware as a National Security Threat 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A discussion with Max Smeets on his new book 'Ransom War: How Cyber Crime Became a Threat to National Security'. The event was chaired by James Babbage, Director General for Threats at the National Crime Agency. 145 attendees in person, 219 online.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2025
URL https://my.rusi.org/events/the-rise-of-ransomware-as-a-national-security-threat.html
 
Description EPSRC/Dstl Project: Cyber Statecraft in an Era of Systemic Competition 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Announcement by project partners, Research Institute for Sociotechnical Cyber Security (RISCS), of project, with details of team members and project objectives, etc.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://riscs.org.uk/research/epsrc-dstl-project-cyber-statecraft-in-an-era-of-systemic-competition/
 
Description Guest Blog: Reflecting on Cyber Power: A Labour Future? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Guest blog for the project by Dr Andrew Dwyer (Royal Holloway): As the UK's new government assesses its priorities for the forthcoming Strategic Defence Review, it would do well to reflect on the effectiveness of cyber power as an organising concept for cyber policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/reflecting-cyber-power-labour-future
 
Description King's academics will support UK efforts to become a democratic cyber power 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact King's College London announcement of project, including contact details of PI for interested parties.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/kings-academics-will-support-uk-efforts-to-become-a-democratic-cyber-powe...
 
Description Op-ed - With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Op-ed in Washington, DC-based, international defence and security outlet, War on the Rocks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2025
URL https://warontherocks.com/2025/02/with-great-power-comes-great-responsibility-how-to-make-big-tech-a...
 
Description Panel Event: Defining Cyber War: The Impact of Insurance on Cyber Norms 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The panel reflected on the cyber insurance industry's efforts to shape cyber security rules and norms. Speakers: Dr. Josephine Wolff (Tufts University), Dr. Daniel Woods (University of Edinburgh), Tom Johansmeyer (Price Forbes Re), and Helga Munger (MunichRe). Moderator: Jamie MacColl (RUSI). 361 attendees online.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://my.rusi.org/events/webinar-defining-cyber-war-the-impact-of-insurance-on-cyber-norms.html
 
Description Panel Event: Great Power Cyber Competition 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A discussion with academics and practitioners on how liberal democracies and adversarial powers are competing in cyberspace. Speakers: Prof David S. Gioe (KCL), Dr Maggie Smith (Atlantic Council), David Higgins (consultant), Dr Rod Thornton (KCL). Moderator: Pia Hüsch (RUSI). 174 attendees online, 50 in-person.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.rusi.org/research-event-recordings/recording-cyber-statecraft-great-cyber-power-competit...
 
Description Panel Event: Ten Years of 'Naming and Shaming': Attribution as a Tool of Cyber Statecraft 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The discussion assessed the evolution of cyber attribution in the US and the UK. Speakers: Ciaran Martin (Blavatnik School of Government), Sandra Joyce (Google Threat Intelligence), Samantha Seller (FCDO) and Sean Newell (Department of Justice). Moderator: Shashank Joshi (The Economist). 120 in person attendees.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://my.rusi.org/events/10-years-of-naming-and-shaming-attribution-as-a-tool-of-cyber-statecraft....
 
Description Panel Event: The Past, Present and Future of UK Cyber Statecraft 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The panel reflected on the UK's experience with cyber statecraft to date, and how this might inform its future. Speakers: Prof Alex Evans (LSE), Dr Joe Devanny (KCL), Katharina Sommer (NCC Group). Moderator: Jamie MacColl (RUSI). 156 participants online.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://my.rusi.org/events/webinar-the-past-present-and-future-of-uk-cyber-statecraft.html
 
Description Panel Event: What is Cyber Statecraft? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The event brought together researchers and practitioners to discuss examples and challenges in the theory and practice of cyber statecraft. Speakers: Dr André Barrinha (University of Bath), Louise Marie Hurel (RUSI), Nikita S. (HM Government), Conrad Prince (RUSI). Moderator: Dr Tim Stevens (KCL). 117 attendees.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://www.rusi.org/research-event-recordings/recording-what-cyber-statecraft
 
Description UK-India-South Africa roundtable on cyber statecraft 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Successful completion of WP2's London-based research roundtable in December, on India and South Africa cyber statecraft, involving participants from Leiden University (Netherlands), National University of Singapore, Stellenbosch University (South Africa), and National Defense University (United States).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description University of Bath research to support UK efforts in the cyber-domain 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact University of Bath announcement of project, including contact details for project Co-I.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2023
URL https://www.bath.ac.uk/announcements/university-of-bath-research-to-support-uk-efforts-in-the-cyber-...
 
Description Video: What is Cyber Power? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In this video, our PI, Dr. Tim Stevens reflects on cyber power and its relative centrality to the United Kingdom's cyber policy throughout the past years.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/explainers/what-cyber-power
 
Description Video: What is Cyber Statecraft? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Bath University's Andre Barrinha-a project Co-I-reflects on the concept of 'cyber statecraft', its utility, and how it helps us understand contemporary cybersecurity challenges.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/explainers/what-cyber-statecraft
 
Description Workshop: Cyber Power and Cyber Statecraft 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 25 people attended a project workshop at the American Museum, Bath, with the objective of mapping the practices of UK cyber statecraft. The speakers comprised a blend of academic experts, government officials, and private-sector experts. It included researchers from RISCS, KCL, RUSI, the University of Bath, Royal Holloway, LSE, BAE Systems, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the University of Oxford, the European Cyber Conflict Research Initiative, Lancaster University, and other partner organisations like Dstl.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description Workshop: Cyber Statecraft in Practice: Mapping the UK's Actorness in Cyberspace 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 25 people attended an exploratory project workshop at the University of Bath, with the primary topic of mapping the UK's statecraft activities in cyberspace. This addressed issues of diplomacy, intelligence and military affairs, with invited delegates from University of Bath, RUSI, Research Institute for Sociotechnical Cyber Security, King's College London, HM Government (National Cyber Security Centre, Dstl, Ministry of Defence), Lancaster University and business (BAe Systems, Mandiant). The workshop was the first activitity in Work Package 1 (WP1, 'Theory, practice and evaluation of cyber statecraft') of the CyCraft project, and gathered perspectives from stakeholders to inform the ongoing research components of this WP. In this respect, it was very successful and participants engaged in frank and honest discussion, as well as offering support for future research and engagement opportunities.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://riscs.org.uk/2024/07/03/exploring-the-uks-cyber-statecraft/
 
Description Workshop: Examining Public-Private Partnerships for International Cyber Support 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact On 29 May 2024, RUSI and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Estonia co-organised the workshop, 'Examining Public-Private Partnerships for International Cyber Support' in Tallinn and on the margins of NATO CCDCOE's International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCON). The workshop counted approximately 30 attendees. 8 from civil society organisations or academia, 7 from private companies or business associations, and 14 from the governments of Estonia, US, France, Germany, Canada, UK, Ukraine, Italy, and Netherlands.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://rusi.org/news-and-comment/rusi-news/rusi-holds-workshop-2024-conference-cyber-conflict
 
Description Workshop: The Role of Private Companies: Making, Shaping or Challenging Cyber Statecraft 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact On 9 April 2024, RUSI organised a workshop on 'The Role of Private Companies: Making, Shaping or Challenging Cyber Statecraft?'. Held at their Whitehall office, the workshop counted 21 attendees from different parts of the private sector working in cybersecurity. The selection of sub-sector representatives derived from threat intelligence companies, Big Tech, defence primes, cyber consultancies, cyber insurance and others.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024