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DECIDE: Decoding cities for informed decision-making: a digital twin approach for minoring territorial disparities and enhancing urban liveability

Lead Research Organisation: CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
Department Name: Welsh School of Architecture (ARCHI)

Abstract

DECIDE - Decoding cities for informed decision-making: a digital twin approach for minoring territorial disparities and enhancing urban liveability

This project aims to develop and test a novel Decision Support System (DSS), based on the integration of Multi-Domain Models (MDMs), for a sustainable urban-regional planning and an informed decision-making. The DSS seeks to promote enhanced urban liveability and to address territorial inequalities by facilitating the interpretation and prediction of movement dynamics according to different mobility modes, accessibility levels of key services, and road network resilience. Plus, it fosters novel configurational models and spatial frameworks for representing of urban-regional dynamics in strategic and operational decision-making. The research focus is on the multiple key-factors which influence cities' liveability (e.g., urban form, road-circulation network configuration, natural environment, and personal characteristics influencing preferential routes choice) and territorial resilience (e.g., the fragility points in road infrastructure networks and the urban-regional territorial disparities). DSS' and MDMs will integrate urban-regional areas' functional aspects (e.g., economic activities', public activities', and living areas distribution) and environmental aspects (e.g., CO2 reduction via pedestrianisation, cycling, and fleet electrification) to interpret and forecast their relations with the circulation network spatial configuration. Furthermore, MDMs will be applied to interpret the general hierarchical relations between urban and regional spaces (e.g., 15-minute and 30-minute cities, spatial inequalities, city-systems linkages), and to inform disaster risk reduction and mitigation planning.

Publications

10 25 50

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Altafini D (2023) An Edge Centrality Measure Based on the Kemeny Constant in SIAM Journal on Matrix Analysis and Applications

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Altafini D (2023) Mapping Urban Flood-Prone Areas' Spatial Structure and Their Tendencies of Change: A Network Study for Brazil's Porto Alegre Metropolitan Region in Cartographica: The International Journal for Geographic Information and Geovisualization

 
Description Decoding Cities for Informed Decision Making (DECIDE)  is exploring innovative digital methods to support sustainable and resilient urban planning, with a special emphasis on effectively communicating complex data to stakeholders and users. Although the full decision-support system prototype is still under development-with the interface mock-up currently being refined-the project has already made substantial progress by aggregating diverse datasets. These datasets capture urban movement patterns (including pedestrian, cycling, and vehicular dynamics) along with key information on demographics, economics, environmental factors (including disaster-risk management), and land use. A central focus has been on developing communication models that transform this complex, technical data into clear, actionable insights for non-specialist users, aligning with the principles of outcome-driven decision support systems. This approach ensures that decision-makers and the public can easily grasp the outcomes and implications of the data, emphasizing communication as a core aspect of decision support. The effectiveness of these strategies was demonstrated in a pilot application during the extreme flooding in Porto Alegre, Brazil, where aggregated datasets and road-network models supported emergency response efforts by providing actionable information and validating the actions taken by local authorities.
Exploitation Route The outcomes of DECIDE have potential to positively influence urban planning practices. The DSS mock-up/prototype, once further developed, can guide the design of outcome-driven decision-support frameworks towards a technological readiness level (TRL) that allows the full-fledged deployment and implementation by local authorities and urban designers. By integrating diverse datasets to create actionable information makes it particularly valuable for cities seeking to transition towards a reimagined urban planning. Additionally, the methods - both technical and communication-oriented - that are being developed in DECIDE to have already been applied in real-world disaster response scenarios. This pilot action demonstrates their potential to aid in emergency planning and disaster-risk management. As the research progresses, the open-access datasets and models produced, as well as the DSS design practices will enable other researchers, policymakers, and practitioners to build upon this work, expanding its applications in different urban and regional contexts.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy

Transport

Other

URL https://research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk/decoding-cities-for-informed-decision-making
 
Description 1. Real-World Impact: Crisis Response in Porto Alegre, Brazil From late April, 2024 and throughout the month of May, torrential rains have drenched the state in Rio Grande do Sul, southern Brazil, as a result of an atmospheric block, caused by a high-pressure system, leading to higher than average temperatures in the central part of the country, which prevented the displacement of typical meteorological systems. The abnormal rainfall has triggered the worst floodings in the last 80 years, affecting 91% of the Rio Grande do Sul state's municipalities, displacing over 580.000 people, submerging entire towns, and greatly disrupting the road-circulation network connections between Porto Alegre, the state capital, and its surrounding metropolitan area. As Brazil is heavily dependent on road-transport, these interruptions at Porto Alegre's Metropolitan Region - which hosted most of the state's logistical centres, conveyed immense challenges for the authorities in organizing the emergency response to this disaster, as well as early recovery actions. Those, in turn, required prompt efforts regarding data production, communication of actionable information and decision-support. Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul's Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (IPH-UFRGS), has spearheaded the research efforts in understanding the effects of the flooding, providing local authorities with information on water levels and flood dynamics with a validated extent of the flooding. Nevertheless, the Institute did not have the required expertise to evaluate the impacts within the road-circulation network and sought aid from Cardiff University and DECIDE to cover these fields, due to the expertise both in network analysis and decision-support. Conducting rapid road-network vulnerability analysis, DECIDE identified critical bottlenecks and how the system accessibility was impacted after the flooding event. Through engagement with local authorities, DECIDE provided actionable recommendations for disaster response, helping also to validate actions taken by the response teams and providing meaningful decision-support. These efforts were published as open-access technical notes on Zenodo, providing an account of the event and the communication models used to provide actionable information. Furthermore, findings at international conferences (e.g., 7FMA), showcasing that DECIDE's Multi-Domain Models, even if not yet organised in a Decision-Support System can provide valid decision-making alternatives, highlighting the project's agility and societal relevance, though it delayed some deliverables due to expanded stakeholder requirements. DECIDE has started to transform theoretical knowledge-driven models in actionable tools for urban resilience demonstrating how those, associated to an outcome-driven communication focused framework, can address territorial disparities and contribute to meaningful responses in terms of management during crisis. Its legacy lies not only in publications but in helping to save lives during disasters, empowering stakeholders to make informed, impactful decisions.
First Year Of Impact 2024
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Environment,Other
Impact Types Societal

Policy & public services

 
Description Technical Report - Porto Alegre Floods, May 2024
Geographic Reach South America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
Impact The technical report produced by DECIDE in collaboration with Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (IPH)/ GESPLA Grupo de pesquisa em Planejamento e Gestão de Recursos Hídricos of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) provided actionable information for early-responders and policymakers. Associated with engagement actions, it helped to guide and validate actions taken by local policymakers to cope with the disaster, maintaining the road-circulation network cohesion.
URL https://zenodo.org/records/11486082
 
Description Learning & Teaching Academy - On-campus Internships - DDSS Decoding Decision Support Systems
Amount £2,000 (GBP)
Organisation Cardiff University 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2024 
End 08/2024
 
Title Configurational Analyses of post-disaster scenarios for the Porto Alegre Metropolitan Area Floodings - November 13, 2024 (V1.0) 
Description The document Configurational Analyses of post-disaster scenarios for the Porto Alegre Metropolitan Area Floodings is a technical-cartographical effort originally prepared in an emergency-response context, to showcase and evaluate the main disruption points and vulnerabilities in terms of accessibility, redundancy and movement patterns within the road-circulation networks of Porto Alegre's, Grande Porto Alegre's, and Vale dos Sinos regions, affected by severe floodings from May 2nd, 2024. This work was made possible by a collaboration between the Cardiff University/Prifysgol Caerdydd - Welsh School of Architecture (WSA) - UK and the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (IPH)/GESPLA - Grupo de pesquisa em Planejamento e Gestão de Recursos Hídricos - Brazil. Involved researchers: Diego Altafini (WSA), Camilla Pezzica (WSA), Clarice Bleil de Souza (WSA), Ana Paula Dalcin (UFRGS/IPH), Guilherme Marques (UFRGS/IPH). 
Type Of Material Data analysis technique 
Year Produced 2024 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact The document provided an account of the effort riginally prepared in an emergency-response context, to showcase and evaluate the main disruption points and vulnerabilities in terms of accessibility, redundancy and movement patterns within the road-circulation networks of Porto Alegre's, Grande Porto Alegre's, and Vale dos Sinos regions, affected by severe floodings from May 2nd, 2024. Its output was organised in a paper Altafini, Diego , Pezzica, Camilla , Bleil De Souza, Clarice , Dalcin, Ana Paula and Marques, Guilherme (2024) Formal methods in flood disaster response: the case of Porto Alegre, Brazil. Presented at: 7FMA - 7th Symposium Formal Methods in Architecture, Porto, Portugal, 2-6 December. 
URL https://zenodo.org/records/14145025
 
Description EU-Horizon: Driving Urban Transitions (DUT) - Evolutive Mesh Compact City - EMC2 Project 
Organisation University of Pisa
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution I have participated in the EMC2 Consortium (France, Italy, Austria and Sweden), throughout all the stages of the project. In the initial outline - after the MSCA-PF grant award (February, 2023) - I collaborated as part of the University of Pisa's department of Energy, Systems, Construction and Territory Engineering cohort to define the Italian group scientific contributions, tasks, deliverables and responsibilities. I have contributed with active writing, ideas, conceptual work and methodological development in the EMC2 WP2, that derived from my previous research and are currently being applied on DECIDE. After the 1st stage approval, I participated in the grant writing workshop (19-21 April, 2023) with partners from France, Austria and Sweden. The project was awarded, then financed and set to start in October, 2023. Due to the MSCA-PF commitments in DECIDE, starting in November 2023, I had to reframe my full-time contribution towards this project, by dedicating a pro-rata time of 10% of my total MSCA-PF time (unremunerated). This contribution is framed as part of career development. I currently collaborate in the project execution as an external consultant, for the development and experimentation of network-analysis models. This allows me to have a two way transfer-knowledge to the University of Pisa (which is a partner in the DECIDE project through the departments of Energy, Systems, Construction and Territory Engineering and Informatics) of elements associated to the DECIDE decision-support system.
Collaborator Contribution This project is part of a European Union initiative (EU Horizon - DUT) that aims to support and create real impact towards a digital transition within urban areas. The EMC2 project, aims to create a framework for the 15 and X minute city for suburban areas and smaller cities. It is comprised by collaborators in France, Italy, Austria and Sweden, under the general coordination of Prof. Giovanni Fusco (Nice - CNRS).
Impact Poster presented on the 1st Meeting of the Driving Urban Transitions Consortium group (https://dutpartnership.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/EMC2-Poster-Brussels-240521.pdf) Contributed to constructing the bridgeness urban maps using the Kemeny-Based Centrality. The collaboration is multidisciplinary, involving Urban Analysis and Mathematics.
Start Year 2023
 
Description Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas (UFRGS) - Porto Alegre May 2024 Floods - Urban Fragility Analysis 
Organisation Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul
Country Brazil 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The partnership between DECIDE and the Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas (IPH-UFRGS) in Brazil is a result of an emergency response action to an extreme flooding event, occurred in Porto Alegre, Brazil. DECIDE provided consultancy, data analysis, and communication tailored to decision-support to local authorities (rescue workers, early responders and policymakers) on the effects of the flooding in the overall road-circulation network performance and emergency routing. This collaboration tested the engagement procedures established by DECIDE's outcome-driven decision-support strategy and was crucial to tailor the decision-support system framework. The collaboration efforts resulted in several publications, both academic, and oriented to support stakeholders' decision-making. Currently, DECIDE is supporting IPH-UFRGS in pursuing further grants in Brazil for researching and providing support on climate adaptation.
Collaborator Contribution IPH-UFRGS facilitated the engagement with local authorities through their network. Furthermore, they collaborated with in-site data, needed to develop the models and aid in decision-support communications. Moreover, researchers from IPH-UFRGS are co-authors in the publications made by DECIDE.
Impact Porto Alegre's Metropolitan Region Road Circulation Network Vulnerability Analysis - Floods of 2024 https://zenodo.org/records/11490520 Communication - Immediate Actions: Road-Network Accesses Preservation Porto Alegre and its Metropolitan Region Vulnerability Analysis - May 2024 Floodings https://zenodo.org/records/11489616 Configurational Analyses of post-disaster scenarios for the Porto Alegre Metropolitan Area Floodings https://zenodo.org/records/14145025 How Porto Alegre's Metropolitan Road Network Coped with the Floodings? https://zenodo.org/records/11490520
Start Year 2024
 
Description University of Pisa - Energy, Systems, Territory and Construction Engineering Department - Spatial Analysis and Decision Support for mitigating Crime and Anti-Social Behaviour 
Organisation University of Pisa
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution DECIDE supported the urban spaces modelling of the City of Pisa, collaborating for the development of several papers relating crime and anti-social behaviour to the urban morphology. Such approach allowed to better understand the crime dynamics, having been integrated by the police forces' system in Pisa. It also provided the basis for its further integration to a decision-support system. Studies are in course to reproduce the methodologies developed for Pisa in a case study in the City of Cardiff.
Collaborator Contribution Partners provided knowledge in crime theory, urban modelling and in agent based models. Evaluations are being made on how to incorporate these information within DECIDE Decision-Support Prototype.
Impact MARA, F., ALTAFINI, D., CUTINI, V. AND MALLESON, N. 2025. Simulation to forecast crime patterns: Comparing space syntax and agent-based models in exploring pedestrian movement and visibility. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design (In Press) MARA, F., ALTAFINI, D., HACAR, O. O., HACAR, M. AND CUTINI, V. 2024. Does time matter? Temporal dynamics and configurational hierarchy in pedestrian movement. Presented at: 14th Space Syntax Symposium, Nicosia, Cyprus, 24-28 June 2024 In: Charalambous, N., Psathiti, C. and Geddes, I. eds.Space Syntax Symposium 14. Tab Edizioni pp. 3139-3156. MARA, F., ALTAFINI, D., SALARDI-JOST, M. AND CUTINI, V. 2024. Visualising the visibility graph analysis: A comparative analysis of VGA metrics representation and significance at micro-urban scale. Presented at: 14th Space Syntax Symposium, Nicosia, Cyprus, 24-28 June, 2024 In: Charalambous, N., Psathiti, C. and Geddes, I. eds.Space Syntax Symposium 14. Tab Edizioni pp. 2009-2020. 08. MARA, F., HACAR, O. O., HACAR, M., ALTAFINI, D. AND, CUTINI, V. 2024. Exploring spatial crime impedance to highlight risky places: A Space Syntax-based environmental approach to urban security. Presented at: 14th Space Syntax Symposium, Nicosia, Cyprus, 24-28 June 2024 In: Charalambous, N., Psathiti, C. and Geddes, I. eds.Space Syntax Symposium 14. Tab Edizioni pp. 2819-2839. MARA, F., HACAR, O. O., GÜLGEN, F. AND ALTAFINI, D. 2024. Interpreting the configuration of micro-urban environments: Line-based Analyses vs. Visibility Graph Analyses for estimating pedestrian flows. Presented at: 14th Space Syntax Symposium, Nicosia, Cyprus, 24-28 June 2024 In: Charalambous, N., Psathiti, C. and Geddes, I. eds.Space Syntax Symposium 14. Tab Edizioni pp. 3051-3072
Start Year 2024
 
Description University of Pisa - Structural Engineering Department - Merging multi-risk analysis and territorial-configurational approaches for climate adaptation 
Organisation University of Pisa
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution The collaboration with University of Pisa Structural Engineering department and the researchers Federica del Carlo and Silvia Caprili was enacted in 2023, following the agreement for the co-supervision of the thesis "Proposta di un indice di rischio multilivello applicato agli edifici ecclesiastici della Garfagnana", authored by Giacomo Bianchini. The thesis proposes to assess the seismic risk of ecclesiastical buildings in the Garfagnana Region by developing two indices-one for structural risk and one for territorial exposure. The structural risk index is calibrated to take into account the expected damage, the anticipated shaking, and the assets exposed to the earthquake through an evaluation of vulnerability, hazard, and exposure. This allows for the creation of a hierarchy of the buildings at highest risk, ensuring proper resource utilization and planning for potential future analyses or interventions. The territorial exposure index, using data provided by configurational analysis, allows for an estimation of the relative accessibility of a given location. DECIDE actively collaborated for the thesis, providing territorial modelling and interfacing with the researchers from Pisa for the development of the Indexes, that can be incorporated in a Decision-Support System framework The thesis has its viva on 2023, and works related to it were published in 2025 at the International Journal of Architectural Heritage. Furthermore, the interface with the researchers from Pisa throughout the thesis lead to other publications, in the realm of multi-risk analysis, presented at conferences and symposia. The Structural Engineering department collaborates actively with DECIDE to further analysis on this knowledge domain, and its integration in decision support systems.
Collaborator Contribution Federica del Carlo interfaced directly with DECIDE, visiting the Welsh School of Architecture in July, 2024, delivering a seminar on Merging multi-risk analysis and territorial-configurational approaches for buildings' Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). Furthermore, the researchers collaborated in several papers and studies, where the Structural Engineering department provided data and expertise on multi-risk analysis and assessment.
Impact Del Carlo, Federica, Bianchini, Giacomo, Altafini, Diego , Caprili, Silvia and Cutini, Valerio 2025. The role of urban configuration in the pre-emergency and post-emergency seismic management phase. International Journal of Architectural Heritage: Conservation, Analysis and Restoration 10.1080/15583058.2024.2448983 DOI: 10.1080/15583058.2024.2448983 Altafini, Diego , Del Carlo, Federica, Caprili, Silvia and Cutini, Valerio 2024. A Territorial-Configurational Index to evaluate seismic spatial vulnerability in urban-regional settings: Integrating network configuration and redundancy to risk. Presented at: 14th Space Syntax Symposium, Nicosia, Cyprus, 24-28 June 2024. Published in: Charalambous, Nadia, Psathiti, Chrystala and Geddes, Ilaria eds. Space Syntax Symposium 14. Tab Edizioni, pp. 1501-1529. ISBN 979-12-5669-032-9
Start Year 2023
 
Description City of Bristol Temple Quarter 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact DECIDE organised a visit to the Temple Meads Station and the surrounding Temple Quarter, organised with Jane Greenway, from the City of Bristol. In the visit, DECIDE identified three main points of intervention, that could be explored by the decision-support prototype, providing evidence-based and actionable information for the Temple Quarter requalification project.

Security (safety), Surveillance and Crime:
Due to the potential increase of people living in the area, as well as changes in demographics and functions, ensuring safety is important. DECIDE can relate people's movement patterns and urban morphology to current crime occurrences, forecasting which areas might be more prone to certain types of crime. The outcome would be, for example, a locational analysis for crime, pinpointing the at-risk locations. This can be used for planning and guiding improvements in security and surveillance of the TQ.

Public Spaces and Green Spaces
DECIDE can provide an analysis aimed at better understanding the interface of public-green spaces and people's movement - providing locations where the potential use of green spaces can be maximised. The outcome would be identifying the public and green areas with high probability of success in term of their use by people - bear in mind that this can be integrated to crime data from above.

Accessibility and Walkability
DECIDE could contribute with accessibility-related assessments at multiple scales (Local and City-wide) and considering different transport modes (Pedestrian, Cycling, Vehicular), towards a better understanding of movement within the Temple Quarter and its insertion within the larger Bristol urban context. The outcome would be an accessibility map of the TQ area at different scales and different transport modes, also considering how the TQ is inserted on Bristol road- network - bear in mind that this can also be integrated to crime data from above.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description DECIDE Meetings - University of Bristol and Great Western Railways 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Meetings were conduced with stakeholders from the University of Bristol and representatives of the Great Western Railways (GWR), to explore the possibilities of a collaborative case study involving the Temple Meads Train Station at Bristol, which is under the administration of GWR.

This has been done as part of DECIDE's proposal to provide decision support for the requalification of the station and surrounding Temple Quarter Area.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
 
Description DECIDE Website 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact DECIDE website is the digital footprint of the project reporting progress the latest news. It keeps stakeholders and the general public aware of the events in which DECIDE members participate and showcases the latest outcomes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024,2025
URL https://research-sites.cardiff.ac.uk/decoding-cities-for-informed-decision-making/
 
Description Porto Alegre's Flood Disaster Management Working Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The presentation on How Porto Alegre's Metropolitan Road Network Coped with the Floodings? was prepared in an emergency-response context to communicate preliminary analysis results regarding the road-circulation network configuration and overall conditions after the severe floodings starting from May 2nd, 2024. Aimed at public authorities, decision-makers and volunteers from the Rio Grande do Sul State Planning Department and from Porto Alegre's crisis management office, plus to colleagues from the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, it provided comparison of the road-network systems under normal conditions and the compromised access ways due to the flooding.

It provided meaningful emergency-response information for those public authorities, helping to guide emergency efforts.

This work is made possible by a collaboration between the Cardiff University/Prifysgol Caerdydd - Welsh School of Architecture and the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) - Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas (IPH)/ GESPLA Grupo de pesquisa em Planejamento e Gestão de Recursos Hídricos.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024
URL https://zenodo.org/records/11490520
 
Description Re-view Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact A quick pitch presentation was done to the Welsh School of Architecture to present DECIDE structure, early results and further activities. This activity engaged with members of staff and post-graduate students to raise awareness for DECIDE's decision-support framework and prototype. Further engagements with staff interested in collaborate were done throughout the year as an outcome of this event.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2024