What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios

Lead Research Organisation: University of Leeds
Department Name: Sch of Geography

Abstract

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
 
Description We have built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK local authorities, which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. We projected the ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two Benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.
Exploitation Route Societal impacts
During the project we had requests from numerous organizations to supply our projection results. We pointed people to the papers and presentations on our web site and did not release provisional results. Now that our work has been completed, we are in a position to meet future requests by releasing our projection outcomes. We have offered the zip archives of our files to the UK Data Archive and have posted the results on our web site.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Healthcare,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Retail

URL http://www.ethpop.org
 
Description Our ethnic projections have been used by local authorities to understand the ethnic composition of their future populations. Social and health researchers wanting ethnic composition contexts for their individual level analyses have used our projections. Our projections have in 2014 been used by a Joseph Rowntree Foundation project in the their Ethnicity and Poverty programme (David Owen, Anne Green and others, Warwick University). We have helped the Policy Exchange develop a remote on Black and Ethnic Minorities and have supplied projections of the ethnic makeup of the 18+ population of GB Westminster Parliamentary constituencies. The projections are currently being used in writing a Working Paper for the Foresight Future of Cities project of the Government Office for Science. We get numerous requests for comment or interviews by the broadcast and print media.
First Year Of Impact 2015
Sector Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Healthcare,Retail
Impact Types Cultural,Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Title Ethnic population projections for the United Kingdom and local areas, 2001-2051 
Description The aims of this project were to:understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populationsunderstand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trendsunderstand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populationsunderstand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the futuredeliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UKbuild capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researcherstap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community. 
Type Of Material Database/Collection of data 
Year Produced 2011 
Provided To Others? Yes  
URL http://www.esds.ac.uk/findingData/snDescription.asp?sn=6777
 
Description LONG-TERM POPULATION AND PROPERTY FORECASTS FOR THAMES WATER 
Organisation Thames Water Utilities Limited
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Thames Water invited the School of Geography at the University of Leeds to deliver projections of the populations and households in the Thames Water supply region. Our expertise in ethnic population projection was considered an essential input to Thames Water's strategic assessment of future water demand. Prior work has shown that there were clear differences between ethnic groupings in their domestic consumption of water. Our research using Thames Water's Domestic Water User Survey data established that the difference in per capita consumption between households with an Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi head (household representative person) and households with heads in other groups was 50 litres per day. As an input to Water Demand Forecasts we used our two NewETHPOP projections (1) a MID projection aligned to ONS assumptions and (2) a LOW projection aligned to ONS assumptions but with different assumptions for international migration reflecting lower net international migration under Brexit). We added a third projection to these two that assumed a HIGH net international migration flow, as observed in 2015-2016. The projections were extended from an end date of 2061 to an end date of 2101, to meet Thames Water's strategic planning objectives.
Collaborator Contribution Thames Water asked us to extend our projections to 2101 from 2061. Such long-term sub-national projections have not been implemented by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) nor by the Greater London Authority (GLA) with respective end dates on 2039 and 2050. Thames Water asked us to develop household projections from the population projections and provided intensive feedback on our model for household water consumption by occupant number, property type and ethnicity. We have submitted a paper on this work to the Journal of Water Resource Management. Thames Water asked us to compare our projections with those of ONS, GLA and EDGE Analytics (a consultancy contracted to deliver property based projections to 2045). This comparison showed that our projected populations out to 2050 were higher than those of the other organizations for two TW Water Resource Zones: the London WRZ and the Slough-Wycombe-Aylesbury WRZ, but were lower for the other 4 WRZs outside London produced by EDGE. Our projections were higher for WRZs with high ethnic diversity, reflecting the higher growth potential of ethnic minorities compared with the majority White British and Irish group. Our projections were lower for WRZs with low (though increasing) ethnic diversity because our internal in-migration projections based applying recent internal migration rates were lower than the in-migration associated with local authority housing plans projected by EDGE.
Impact We are in process of writing up the following papers from journal publication: Nawaz R, Rees P, Clark S, Mitchell G, McDonald A, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Domestic Water Demand in the Thames Region: A Model for Use in Preparing Long-Term Projections. Submitted to Water Resources Management. Nawaz R, Rees P, Clark S, Mitchell G, McDonald A, Kalamandeen M, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Long Term Domestic Water Demand Projections for London and the Thames Valley. In draft, target journal Water Resources Management. Rees P, Clark S, Nawaz R, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Projecting populations and households for subnational areas over the long-term: Application in water demand forecasts for Thames Water. In draft, target journal Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. Rees P, Clark S, Wohland P, Kalamandeen M, Boden P, Jasinska M, Tonkins W, Corr B, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) A comparison of sub-national population projection methods, assumptions and results: a case study of the Thames Water Region. In draft, target journal Population, Space and Place. Rees P, Norman P & Wohland P (2018) Development of an Ethnic Fertility Convergence Scenario. In draft, target journal Population Studies. This collaboration involves population geographers (Rees, Boden), computer scientists/statisticians (Clark, Tonkins), environmental scientists (Nawaz, Kalamandeen), environmental geographers (McDonald, Mitchell), water managers (Lambert, Henderson), demographers (Corr).
Start Year 2016
 
Description Alternative futures for the UK's local ethnic populations: sensitivity and scenario analyses 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presented at the 4th ESRC Research Methods Festival, 5-8 July 2010, St Catherine's College Oxford.

The feedback from the presentation helped design alternative scenarios.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/alternative.pdf
 
Description Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presented at a Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy (CSAP) seminar at the University of Leeds.

Heightened awareness of our work among colleagues
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/csap_presentation141008.pdf
 
Description Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups and for dealing with uncertainty in internal migration 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact BSPS Day Meeting on Population Projections. Talk led to questions and further discussion

Strengthened links with other members of the British Society for Population Studies
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/design_of_a_projection_bsps_presentation_29_feb_2008.pdf
 
Description Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups and for dealing with uncertainty in internal migration 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact BSPS Day Meeting on Population Projections. Talk sparked questions and discussion

Further discussions in the demographic community about how to deal with uncertainty in internal migration (not yet resolved)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/design_of_a_projection_bsps_presentation_29_feb_2008.pdf
 
Description Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups and for dealing with uncertainty in internal migration 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar presented at the Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, Fareham, Hampshire.

This presentation was to a large audience of demographers and statisticians at the Office for National Statistics. We received many valuable suggestions for improving our model design or data inputs.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/design_of_a_projection_bsps_presentation_11_april_2008.pdf
 
Description Development of a projection model for ethnic groups in the UK incorporating internal and international migration and new estimates of ethnic mortality 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact QMSS2 Seminar on the Estimation and Projection of International Migration

Useful feedback on our work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/rees_session5.pdf
 
Description Development of a projection model for ethnic groups in the UK incorporating internal and international migration and new estimates of ethnic mortality 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar at the Office for National Statistics

Raised awareness of our work at the Office for National Statistics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/rees_session5.pdf
 
Description Effects on rates on revising mid-year estimates 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact BPSP/ONS Meeting

The presentation did influence thinking at the Office of National Statistics. They now routinely revise demographic rates when population estimates have been revised.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/paul-norman-bsps-07-01-10.pdf
 
Description Estimates of ethnic group mortality for local authorities in England 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar at the Greater London Authority.

This seminar helped cement good working relations with the Greater London Authority, who carry out ethnic population projections for London Boroughs
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/gla_phr_13_june.pdf
 
Description Estimates of ethnic mortality in the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact ESRC Research Methods Festival, Session: Research Methods for Understanding Population Trends and Processes using secondary data

We discussed our methods with members of the audience, which helped in preparing our Social Science and Medicine paper on the topic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/esrc_researchmethodfestivaljulyphr.pdf
 
Description Estimation of mortality for ethnic groups at local scale 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Southampton Social Statistics Seminar

We had discussions about our methods of estimation. This feedback helped in preparing a paper for publication in Social Science and Medicine.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/social_statistics_seminar_southampton_20_nov.pdf
 
Description Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Stakeholder Meeting: we presented our model and results to date to a group of local authority officers responsible for population projections and ethnic statistics in their authority.

We received advice to keep the model clear and simple so that local authority officers would understand the methods and so use the results.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/stakeholdermeeting_18december_4p-4.pdf
 
Description Ethnic population projections: review of models and findings 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Seminar on on Multi-attribute analysis and projections of ethnic populations

There was considerable debate about the nature of ethnicity as used in our work, with which other European researchers were uncomfortable. I defended the UK practice (self assessment in a census question or in a survey) as truly democratic. People are able to choose their own identity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/phil_rees_ethnic_population_projections_revi.pdf
 
Description Ethnic populations : the components for projection 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Royal Statistical Society, Social Statistics Section. Discussion after the talk about our approach.

Useful suggestions as to the way forward in our research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/rss-uptap-02-12-08.pdf
 
Description How will the ethnic composition of the UK population change in the next 50 years? A projection of the ethnic populations of local areas, regions and the country 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presented at a Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy (CSAP) seminar at the School of Geography, University of Leeds, sharing with colleagues at the University of Leeds the results of our research.

Members of the research cluster were better informed about our research work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/csappresentation26january2010.pdf
 
Description How will the ethnic composition of the UK population change in the next 50 years? A projection of the ethnic populations of local areas, regions and the country 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Government Communications Network Event, Central Office of Information. Our talk informed statisticians and policy advisers in Central Government Departments about the ethnic transition of the UK population

As I recall, the audience did not engage with this topic, despite being from offices in London, Britain's most ethnically diverse metropolis
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/how_will_the_ethnic_composition_of_the_uk_population_change_in_t...
 
Description International Migration-Using administrative datasets for migration analysis and estimation 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar at the Office for National Statistics to the ONS Centre for Demography

This seminar led ONS to develop a method for estimating sub-national immigration (to local authorities) based on our work. Later this impact was described in an impact case study to REF2014
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/ons_-_international_migration_-_pb_-_may_2009.pdf
 
Description International migration - its impact upon local population estimates & projections 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact BPSP/ONS Meeting

Helped cement our collaboration with ONS on better estimates of immigration to Local Authorities
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/peter-boden-bsps-07-01-10.pdf
 
Description New migrant databank 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar at the Greater London Authority. We reported on further work on "new migrants" based on a project carried out in 2006 for GLA

GLA confirmed the usefulness of our work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/gla_review_-_pb_-_june_2008.pdf
 
Description New migrant databank 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact UPTAP-GROS Scottish Government workshop, Understanding Population Trends and Processes

The General Register Office became aware of our work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/gro_uptap_review_-_pb_-_feb_2009.pdf
 
Description Population trends in the UK, Yorkshire, Leeds and Bradford: the continuing ethnic and ageing transitions 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Common Purpose Workshop

Increased awareness among local governments in the region in our work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/common_purpose_seminar_10_november.pdf
 
Description Propensity to migrate by ethnic group : 1991 & 2001 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Sample of Anonymised Records, User Group, Royal Statistical Society

We connected with other researchers who were studying the migration behaviour of ethnic groups in the UK
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2007
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/propensity_to_migrate_by_ethnic_groupsars-users-pdn-js-sh2007.pd...
 
Description The future ethnic mix of UK local populations, 2007 to 2051 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact ESRC Research Methods Festival

We received comments on our model design, projection assumptions and results, which were useful.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/thefutureethnicmixofuklocalpopulations2007to2051oxford1.pdf
 
Description The future of the UK's ethnic group populations at national and local scales 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar at the Office for National Statistics

Discussion of our results with a comparison with ONS PEEG estimates
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/ons_centre_for_demography_21_october.pdf
 
Description UK subnational variations in fertility & infant mortality : 1981 to 2006 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact UK subnational variations in fertility ?fant mortality: 1981 to 2006. Presentation at the Fifth Biennial Population Geographies Conference, Dartmouth College, 6th August 2009

Discussion with colleagues about the issues in estimating the fertility of ethnic, racial or foreign born groups
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/5thicpg-pdn-01-08-09.pdf
 
Description What happens when international migrants settle? : ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas : the components for projection 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at a Regional Health Intelligence Forum at York University.

Since the presentation we have had many requests from health researchers to access our projected ethnic group populations
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/york-uptap-08-12-08-pn.pdf
 
Description What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group trends and projections for UK local areas to 2051 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presented at a Centre for Spatial Analysis and Policy (CSAP) seminar at the School of Geography, University of Leeds.

Our colleagues were better informed about our research results
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/school_of_geography_seminar17_november.pdf
 
Description What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presented at UPTAP annual workshop 18th-19th March 2008, University of Leeds.

Discussion with other researchers on the UPTAP programme about our work
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2008
URL http://www.ethpop.org/Presentations/uptap_conference_presentation_19_march_2008.pdf