Population 24/7: space-time specific population surface modelling

Lead Research Organisation: University of Southampton
Department Name: School of Geography

Abstract

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Publications

10 25 50
 
Description This project developed a methodology and software for estimating the populations of small geographical areas at specific target times. This is very different to conventional population mapping which tends to use sources such as census data to estimate residential populations at night-time on a fixed date of enumeration.
Exploitation Route During the project, a network of non-academic stakeholders including emergency planning, flood modelling and mapping agencies was created. One of these organizations sponsored a PhD student to further the work and has now obtained funding to support a second PhD. The existing methodology could be implemented by any organization holding suitable population data-sets. The software and overall approach serve to inform decision-making in many contexts, including emergency planning, risk assessment, mapping and healthcare planning. The SurfaceBuilder24/7 software developed during the project is freely available. A funded ESRC award ES/P010768/1 (2017-18) is working with partners Public Health England, Health and Safety Executive and Dstl on implementation of the project software tool using new forms of data. Non-academic researchers in Italy have now implemented the software for a risk assessment application and we are discussing potential use with additional UK public sector organizations.
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice,Transport

URL http://www.researchcatalogue.esrc.ac.uk/grants/RES-062-23-1811/read
 
Description This award has generated widespread interest in building time-specific population models. It has influenced thinking in a range of public and private sector organizations with whom the research has been discussed. Presentations have been given to commercial audiences such as the Demographics User Group and with European national statistical organizations through the European Forum on Geography and Statistics. Follow-on actions to date include three PhD studentships (one funded by Ordnance Survey); one of these students was awarded their PhD in 2015 having spent an EPSRC-funded internship with HR Wallingford and a second was submitted in late 2016. A new PhD studentship has been offered by Ordnance Survey and a funded ESRC award ES/P010768/1 (2017-18) is working with partners Public Health England, Health and Safety Executive and Dstl on implementation of the project software tool using new forms of data, with a commitment to case study implementation within those stakeholder organizations.
First Year Of Impact 2011
Sector Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Environment,Healthcare,Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Title SurfaceBuilder247 
Description .NET Compiled software package for spatiotemporal population modelling and user guide documentation - as deposited in ESRC Research Catalogue 
Type Of Technology Software 
Year Produced 2011 
Impact Self-reported download and use by university research groups in UK and Italy, used extensively in four PhDs associated with members of the original research team (2 completed, 2 ongoing). In discussion with three UK public sector partners regarding implementation of policy demonstrators. 
URL http://researchcatalogue.esrc.ac.uk/grants/RES-062-23-1811/read
 
Description Census GIS and beyond : a journey in space and time 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This was an invited public lecture at University College London, sponsored by the Association for Geographic Information that assessed the impacts of GIS on the 2011 census, looked forward at population statistics beyond 2011 and particularly focused on the challenge of understanding the dynamics of population distributions across timescales ranging from decadal population change to the daily journey to work. Extensive discussion, including reception with attendees after the lecture

Raised awareness of Geographic Information Science professionals of role of ESRC Census Programme and current census mapping developments. Established additional contacts.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Invited presentation at SmartPop Seminar, Free University of Brussels - Time Specific Population Modelling using New Forms of Data, 11 October 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact One of three Invited presentations at Seminar hosted by ISSeP SmartPop project. Around 30 attendees, including public sector funders, international advisory board members and academic researchers, held at Free University of Brussels.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Mapping population 24/7 : direction of travel 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Invited presentation to Transportation Research Group, University of Southampton

Local networking and awareness of related research
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Mapping population over time : new ways of exploiting open data 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited workshop session presented to Ordnance Survey as part of an Open Data Masterclass

Subsequent relationship-building with Ordnance Survey led to current EPSRC-funded iCASE PhD studentship
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Open all hours : rethinking population mapping 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Invited departmental seminar and associated discussion of potential future research collaboration

Research groups have kept in touch with one anothers' work and current joint research proposal is under consideration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Pop 24/7 : mapping space-time specific populations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Visiting seminar to academic researchers engaged with census, population mapping and modelling

Increased international contacts and awareness of ESRC award. Has been followed up by discussion of potential international application of methods.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Pop24/7 : mapping space-time specific populations for health 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Visiting seminar to Australian National Statistical Organization

Has generated ongoing interest in project software
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Pop24/7 : mapping space-time specific populations for health 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Visiting seminar to National Statistical Organization, New Zealand

Informed Statistics New Zealand use of project software and ongoing correspondence re. further development
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2009,2011
 
Description Pop24/7 : mapping space-time specific populations for health 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Visiting seminar during academic study visit to New Zealand

Increased understanding of project research methods
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Population 24/7 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Invited seminar speaker to Demographics User Group of businesses

Established relationship with some key businesses who have gone on to take part in the ESRC Retail Research Masters dissertation scheme
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Presentation in Daytime Population Movements Workshop, held 5 Juen 2014 at University of Leeds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Knowledge shared between ESRC NCRM-funded research teams and current practice shared with external participants including both public sector and academic researchers.

Some new relationships formed, including return visit to Leeds by member of research team to undergo methodological training and further share developments
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014