Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Lead Research Organisation: University of Warwick
Department Name: Economics

Abstract

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
 
Description CAGE's research programme entails innovative work in the areas of sustaining long-run growth, adjusting to new opportunities arising from global development, and enhancing well-being especially for the poor. CAGE research engages with development economics, economic history, growth economics, political economy, and welfare economics and seeks to exploit synergies between these fields. In particular, CAGE brings an informed historical perspective to current policy issues. CAGE has produced a substantial volume of research. There have been 172 working papers, 123 refereed journal articles, and 3 edited books. The research programme has produced important results which will have a major impact on future academic work as well as significant implications for policymakers.

These contributions include a major reappraisal of the economic-policy lessons of the 1930s, pioneering estimates of real national income for England from 1270 to 1870, a definitive account of the dimensions and timing of the so-called 'great divergence' between Europe and Asia before and during the industrial revolution, a model of 'poverty traps' based on aspirations and empirical evidence that interventions to shock aspirations are an effective way to tackle poverty, establishing that poverty impacts seriously on cognitive ability, quantification of the importance of diet to subjective wellbeing, demonstrating and explaining the paradoxical positive association across locations between happiness scores and suicide rates, demonstrating a causal effect of happiness on a worker's productivity, demonstrating that tax competition does not imply the end of the European welfare state while also explaining different responses to the tax-competition threat across the OECD countries, and innovative evaluations of interventions to improve performance and resilience to shocks in enterprises in developing countries.

Path-breaking work on long-run growth performance has been produced. A book setting out and explaining growth estimates for England from 1270 to 1870 (Broadberry et al., 2015) has been published; this shows that incomes grew significantly over the long run prior to the industrial revolution. New estimates of comparative economic growth over six centuries in the major economies of Asia and Europe during the 'great divergence' were presented in Broadberry (2013). Crafts and O'Rourke (2013) wrote a major survey article which reviews explanations of 20th century divergence in growth performance. In the light of the post-2008 crisis, attention was given to shocks to growth from the Great Depression of the 1930s. This produced a major reinterpretation of British relative economic decline highlighting the importance of a long-run consequence of the depression, namely, weak competition (Crafts, 2012) and a radical reassessment of the scope to use fiscal policy to stimulate growth in 1930s' conditions (Crafts and Mills, 2015). With regard to policy to address problems of lagging regions two important papers were published which for the first time show clearly the causal effects on growth of expenditure on EU structural funds and demonstrate both the importance of absorptive capacity and the misallocation of funds under present budgetary rules (Becker et al., 2012, 2013).

In the context of improving the economic performance of developing countries, Woodruff has developed methodologically innovative evaluations of interventions to improve performance and resilience to shocks in enterprises in developing countries based on detailed micro-level research in Sri Lanka. The results include showing the role that targeted aid can play in speeding recovery from disasters (De Mel et al., 2011a), identifying the important obstacles in getting credit to high-return microenterprises (De Mel et al., 2011b), the importance of business training for the profitability and business practices of new entrants (De Mel et al., 2012), and establishing that the benefits to small firms of entering the formal sector are small (De Mel et al., 2013). CAGE also produced important results on improving the quality of the bureaucracy in India in terms of incentivizing civil servants to develop competence rather than use patronage to achieve career success (Iyer and Mani, 2012).

Research that provides a new interpretation of 'poverty traps' based on failures of aspirations has been developed by (Dalton et al., 2016). This has major implications for policy interventions in that shocking aspirations may be an effective way to tackle poverty. These insights have been successfully tested in field experiments in India. Carefully-designed field experiments with sugar-cane farmers in India have also established that poverty impacts seriously on cognitive ability. This research which has been published in Science (Mani et al., 2013) has the potential to explain a variety of 'self-defeating' behaviours common among the poor. CAGE has also been at the forefront of research on happiness and well-being led by Oswald. His contributions are a major addition to the literature and include a magisterial survey article (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2011), quantification of the importance of diet to subjective wellbeing (Oswald et al., 2013), explaining the paradoxical positive association across locations between happiness scores and showing a causal effect of happiness on a worker's productivity (Oswald et al., 2015).
Exploitation Route Our research has both scholarly and policy-relevant impacts. We publish our findings in top journals but also in formats which are readily accessible by the policymaking community. We have exploited a number of channels to increase general awareness of our work including producing major Policy Reports in 2012 and 2014, a substantial number of Briefing Papers, and many columns for the VoxEU website, several of which have over 50,000 reads.
We see our most important academic impacts resulting from innovative work which will facilitate and stimulate further research. For example, work by Stephen Broadberry and several co-authors which has produced new estimates of national income for a number of European and Asian countries relating to the Great Divergence. These have been assimilated by the Maddison Project and are available on the web as an open-access resource for researchers requiring data relevant to very long-run growth performance. Research by Anandi Mani and co-authors using field experiments which was published in Science has found that poverty affects cognitive ability. This opens up a new research area which is building on this initial finding through further field experiments to explore in much more detail the implications of this impairment for decision making and, of course, it also can inform policy design. An important study by Nicholas Crafts and Terence Mills based on data and econometric methods not previously used in the context found that the multiplier effects of fiscal policy in Britain in the 1930s were much lower than earlier estimates and implied that austerity was probably not self-defeating. This has renewed interest in this issue among economic historians and has already provoked ongoing research using alternative approaches. Each of these research projects adds to the volume of high-quality evidence available to policymakers and can be expected to be taken seriously because it has passed the academic publication test and has been publicized in non-academic outlets.
Much of our work has been more closely related to policy issues and business practices and will be of more direct practical relevance to practitioners. For example, work by Sascha Becker and co-authors shows that EU regional policy in the form of structural funds only has sustained impacts on growth in areas with high 'absorptive capacity'. This finding has important implications which have been presented to policymakers in terms of where to target scarce resources and also for the complementary measures needed to make regional policy effective. A programme of research undertaken by Christopher Woodruff and a number of colleagues in a series of well-designed trials has investigated the effectiveness of a variety of interventions intended to raise productivity of firms in developing countries. This has produced a body of evidence on 'what works' which is now available to aid agencies such as DFID or the World Bank both of which are aware of the findings. An important aspect of our research relates to the determinants and implications of subjective happiness and wellbeing. Over time this has produced a large volume of findings especially by Andrew Oswald which have been published in major journals and presented to policymakers on many occasions. A particularly important new result in a paper by Andrew Oswald, Eugenio Proto and Daniel Sgroi is that happiness has a causal effect on the productivity of workers. This can inform the design of the work environment and management practices in ways which might improve productivity performance.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice,Other

 
Description CAGE faced a number of challenges in establishing pathways to impact. As a new research centre at a provincial university we had to build a profile with the London policy making community. We did that in three ways. First, we produced policy briefing papers which were launched in London with partner organizations, initially Chatham House and then the Social Market Foundation who were instrumental in providing audiences. Second, we established very close contacts with the Government Economic Service including having a number of their economists visit as CAGE Policy Fellows. Third, although we had some research economists who were already well known in policy making circles, others who were younger or recent arrivals from abroad were not. We worked hard to build up the reputations of this latter group by getting them opportunities to make presentations in forums where they would be noticed. In some cases, this was spectacularly successful and the individuals concerned became go-to sources of advice in policy circles. Our research has societal impact as an input to policymakers and to discussions of economic policy among think tanks, opinion-formers etc. Three important examples are chosen to illustrate this impact, one from each of the three research themes (programmes) in CAGE. Research led by Professor Chris Woodruff has focused on business development in developing countries. The aim is to find out 'what works' in particular with regard to training programmes for workers. The first stage of this concluded that relatively little had been learned from earlier (flawed) research but that it was possible to design better projects. This has been taken up by DFID and the World Bank. A notable success has been work carried out with the ILO and IFC in Bangaladesh to develop effective methods for training women to be line supervisors in garment factories. Research led by Professor Nick Crafts has produced valuable insights into the design of industrial policy. Some of this was conducted under the auspices of the Government Office for Science Foresight study on the Future of Manufacturing which concluded in 2013 and generated the Evidence Paper which informed the relevant part of the report. Presentations on policies to improve productivity have been regularly made to government economists including at HM Treasury, BIS, and the National Audit Office. The work is now underpinning responses to many requests for advice, comment and expert consultation in the context of the formulation of the government's 'New Industrial Strategy'. Research led by Professors Andrew Oswald, Eugenio Proto and Daniel Sgroi has produced important new evidence that establishes a causal link from happiness to the productivity of workers. The results have been widely disseminated to government and business audiences and have had a great deal of press coverage. There is already take-up by potential users and more can be anticipated going forward. The team has been working with large employers (a city council and a large private-sector company) to devise productivity boosting interventions and requests for consultancy advice have come from as far afield as Kazakhstan.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Other
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Academic consultant (Smith) Bank of England on project analysing Wage Rigidity in the UK
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
 
Description Active Govt Roundtable (organised by Chuka Umanna - shadow BIS secretary) "The Challenges of the future and lessons for history"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
 
Description Advice on productivity research being conducted by Banque de France
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Growth Seminar
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Growth Seminar
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Ministerial Seminar "How Does Government Promote Local Economic Renewal and Regional Rebalancing"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Regulation and Economic Growth
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Seminar "Understanding Producivity"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description BIS Top 200 Event
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Banco D'Italia "Italy's International Economic Polition 1861-2011
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Bank of England Monetary Policy Roundtable
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Centre for Economic Reform : "Innovation: How can europe take off? Improving Productivity isn't rocket science"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Chevening Deputy Prime Minister Seminar "How will Britain Grow in the next two decades"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Civil Service Live Event "Onwards and Upwards: What are the prospects for Economic Growth"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Crafts: Lecture on Role of Cities in the British Economy over time and the policy implications
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
URL http://www.centreforcities.org/event/city-horizons-a-century-of-cities/
 
Description DG ECFIN Annual Research conference ARC 2011 "Economic Growth Prospects: an historial perspective"
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Expert Panel: Dept for Culture, Media and Sport Communications Review. Review of External Research
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guidance committee
 
Description GES/Bank of England "What post crisis changes does the economics discipline need"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description HM Treasury Seminar
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description House of commons . Advice to APPG discussion on EU reform and the issue of EU structural Funds
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
 
Description International Labour Office, Geneva "Globalisation and Labour market outcomes"
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Italy and the World Economy
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Italy and the World Economy
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description NESTA report "Examining Sectoral Growth in the UK" prepared with Oxford Economics
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
URL http://www.nesta.org.uk/sites/default/files/rebalancing_act.pdf
 
Description RBS conference for Central Banks and sovereign wealth funds "Reserve management trends"
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Royal Bank of Scotland Treasury Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Shell Scenarios Workshop
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description The Economic Impact of ICT: an Historical Perspective
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description UK Govt office for Science: Foresight Future of manufacturing project
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/255923/13-810-future-manuf...
 
Description Welsh government economic research unit seminar "Recession and prospects for growth" "Lessons from British Economic Decline"
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description British Academy (mani)
Amount £9,800 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2014 
End 12/2015
 
Description British Academy Small Grant (Hugh Jones)
Amount £3,910 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2011 
End 06/2011
 
Description British Academy Small Grant (Mukand)
Amount £9,670 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2012 
End 12/2013
 
Description British Academy Small Grant (Waldinger)
Amount £7,489 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2011 
End 02/2013
 
Description Collaborative Scholarship (Proto)
Amount £5,000 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2010 
End 12/2010
 
Description Conference support (Lessons from 1930s conference)
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2010 
End 05/2010
 
Description Conference support (Lessons from 1930s conference)
Amount £5,000 (GBP)
Organisation Royal Economic Society 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2010 
End 05/2010
 
Description Conference support (Lessons from 1930s conference)
Amount £1,000 (GBP)
Organisation Oxford Review of Economic Policy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2010 
End 05/2010
 
Description Conference support (Lessons from 1930s conference)
Amount £5,000 (GBP)
Organisation Economic History Society 
Sector Learned Society
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2010 
End 05/2010
 
Description Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation Grant
Amount £1,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 207/8205 
Organisation Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2010 
End 09/2010
 
Description Health, Economic Wellbeing, and Antimicrobial Resistance: Insights from the Past
Amount £30,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/H021248/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2014 
End 11/2014
 
Description Public Engagement with Research Online
Amount £44,221 (GBP)
Organisation Jisc 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 06/2012 
End 11/2012
 
Description Sasakawa foundation Grant
Amount £2,000 (GBP)
Funding ID 3642 
Organisation The Great Britain Sasakawa Foundation 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 09/2010 
End 09/2010
 
Description Strategic Funding Initiative for Joint Research and Education Programme
Amount £14,067 (GBP)
Organisation University of Warwick 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2013 
End 06/2013
 
Description Summer School funding
Amount £18,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Warwick 
Department Warwick Mathematics Institute
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2012 
End 05/2012
 
Description Summer School funding
Amount £1,000 (GBP)
Organisation International Growth Centre (IGC) 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2010 
End 08/2010
 
Description Summer School funding
Amount £25,000 (GBP)
Organisation University of Warwick 
Department Institute of Advanced Study
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 07/2010 
End 08/2010
 
Description Visting Professorship
Amount £75,010 (GBP)
Funding ID F00215BJ 
Organisation The Leverhulme Trust 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2011 
End 05/2012
 
Description Chatham 
Organisation Chatham House
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Writing of Policy Briefing Papers
Collaborator Contribution Publication and dissemination of Policy Briefing Papers. This series of policy papers published by Chatham House in partnership with CAGE forms an important part of CAGE's five year programme of research and Chatham House's International Economics agenda. The series aims to advance key policy debate issues of global significance.
Impact Briefing Papers entitled: The Power of Political Voice: How Women in Politics Can Help Tackle Gender Crime Human Development as Positive Freedom: A World View since 1870 Saving the Euro: A Pyrrhic Victory? The Danger of High Home Ownership: Greater Unemployment Fiscal Federalism in the UK: How Free is Local Government? The Design of Pro-Poor Policies: How to Make Them More Effective Registering for Growth: Tax and the Informal Sector in Developing Countries Soaring Dragon, Stumbling Bear: China's Rise in a New Context Africa's Growth Prospects in a European Mirror: A Historical Perspective Tax Competition and the Myth of the 'Race-to-the-Bottom': Why Governments Still Tax Capital EU Structural Funds: Do They Lead to More Growth? International Migration, Politics and Culture: the Case for Greater Labour Mobility Saving the Eurozone: Is a 'Real' Marshall Plan the Answer?
Start Year 2010
 
Description Durbar 
Organisation Durbar Mahila Samanwaya Committee
Country India 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution The Dream Building programme, using radomised control trial methodology, was an eight session programme of one hour weekly workshops where sex workers in Kolkata were provided with aspiration-development training. There were three stages: baseline survey, subjects randomly assgned and endline survey. The Warwick team had primary responsibility for theoretical foundations, expeimental design and econometric analysis
Collaborator Contribution The Durbar team members were responsible for the overall running of the Dream Buildling training workshops, including allocating facilitators to conduct the workshops and the provision of infrastructural support.
Impact CAGE Policy Report; Reversals of Fortune?A Long-term Perspective on Global Economic Prospects (Sascha O. Becker, Stephen Broadberry Nicholas Crafts, Sayantan Ghosal, Sharun W. Mukand. Vera E. Troeger: (Chapter 6) The Design of Pro-poor Policies
Start Year 2012
 
Description Equador 
Organisation The Seed Foundation
Country Ecuador 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Subcontract for an NGO based in Ecuador who are managing some data collections associated with CAGE research.
Collaborator Contribution Fundacion Sembrar provide 2 project assistants and 14 students to carry out fieldwork relating to the evaluation of the PelCa programme in Pisulli Quita
Impact Not output yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description Essex Laboratory experiments 
Organisation University of Essex
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Research team to produce a working paper
Collaborator Contribution Essex will deliver laboratory experiments related to public goods games with expropriation with and without recognisable labels on individuals participants. Essex PI with supervise experiments, process the resulting data and supply to Warwick in an appropriate format.
Impact Non yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description Falk Institute 
Organisation The Maurice Falk Institute for Economic Research in Israel
Country Israel 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Interpretation of the results
Collaborator Contribution Falk institute to undertake preparation, testing and econometric analysis of data.
Impact Working paper "How Responsive is Investment in Schooling to Changes in Redistributive Policies and in Returns?" (with Ran Abramitzky)
Start Year 2012
 
Description HKUST MOU 
Organisation Hong Kong University of Science and Tech
Country Hong Kong 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborative activity: Annual workshop and academic exchange
Collaborator Contribution Collaborative Activity: Annual workshop and academic exchange
Impact Anticipated outputs are workshops and academic exchange
Start Year 2014
 
Description LSE 
Organisation London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London)
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Buyout for Prof Steve Broadberry on CAGE
Collaborator Contribution Professor Stephen Broadberry is the Theme 1 leader on CAGE. Research in theme 1 falls under the remit of "What explains catching -up forging ahead, and falling behind in Economic growth over the long run.
Impact Many working papers, events
Start Year 2011
 
Description Sub Contract with Indian Statistical Institute 
Organisation Indian Statistical Institute (ISI)
Country India 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Researchers at CAGE in collaboration with the ISI undertook a research project in Kolkata, India which aimed to study the role that individual "self confidence" and "aspirations" could play in reinforcing chronic poverty and deprivation. In particular, it seeks to examine whether a training programme specifically designed to enhance aspirations of members of a marginalized group in society. sex workers, can have a positive impact on their self perception and efforts at improving their own well-being.
Collaborator Contribution Field investigation base line survey, monitoring of training workshops, end line survey, data cleaning and entry and delivery of project data in digitized format suitable for econometric analysis to be undertaken by PI and CIs
Impact CAGE working paper #152: Believing in Oneself: Can Psychological Training Overcome the Effects of Social Exclusion? Sayantan Ghosal (Glasgow), Smarajit Jana (Durbar) Anandi Mani (Warwick), Sandip Mitra (ISI Kolkata) and Sanchari Roy (Warwick) http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/152-2013_mani.pdf
Start Year 2012
 
Description A sectoral analysis of Italy's development, 1861-2011 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at Banca D'Italia Workshop on Italy's International Economic Position 1861 -2011

informal exchange of ideas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Balanced and sustainable growth 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at BIS Seminar on Balanced and Sustainable Growth

Presented at BIS Seminar on Balanced and Sustainable Growth to influence Government White paper
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description CAGE Newsletter 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact CAGE Newsletter: dissemination of latest CAGE research

Lead article reports CAGE briefing paper "Soaring Dragon, Stumbling bear: China's rise in a new context" reflecting China as the risng power in the East while Russia has declined
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://v3.online-brochures.net/files/411915752013568/
 
Description CAGE Newsletter 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact CAGE Newsletter: disseminated results of recent CAGE research

Lead article offered a new explanation for many of the behaviours of the poor.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://v3.online-brochures.net/files/1714163012014125/
 
Description Catch up growth : a historical perspective 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Shell Scenarios Workshop looking at how emerging economies catch-up and surpass : An Orientation workshop at Shell HQ to explore themes around planetary boundaries affecting Societies over the coming decades and to identify critical issues.

This was seen as Shell's first step towards the development of new lens scenarios that will be used to explore the evolving policy objectives of societies that impact industry structure for the testing of the robustness of the Group's strategy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Changes in Italian comparative advantage, 1863-2000 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at Banca D'Italia Workshop on Italy's International Economic Position 1861 -2011

international collaborative project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - (Crafts) Saving the Euro 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The euro has survived a lengthy recession and an ominous legacy of public debt, but the fundamental flaws in its original design have not been corrected. Fiscal consolidation alone seems inadequate to address the fiscal sustainability problems of highly-indebted economies in the euro area. The author of the Chatham House-CAGE Briefing Paper Saving the Euro: A Pyrrhic Victory? will argue that the crisis has inflicted significant damage to future growth prospects in the eurozone, both through the debt legacy it has created and in terms of the impetus it has given to detrimental supply-side policies.

stimulating discussion and followed by seminar for GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/International%20Economics/bp_ca...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Becker EU structural funds - do they lead to more growth 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact In this policy paper, Professor Sascha Becker argues that the EU transfer system, while currently yielding a certain amount of additional growth in some recipient regions, requires a degree of conditionality in order to deliver targeted results. In assessing the effectiveness of the EU's Regional Policy, the paper focuses on the Convergence Objective (formerly Objective 1) which suggests that, on average, it is successful at fostering growth in recipient regions, but that those with low levels of education and poor governance fail to make good use of EU transfers. For EU Structural Funds as a whole, a point is reached where returns begin to decline and additional funds do not lead to higher growth. Professor Becker argues that, in the future, EU transfers to regions should not exceed maximum desirable levels if inefficiency and misuse are to be avoided.

informed discussion following the presentation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/becker_dec_201...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Broadberry Africa's growth prospects in a European Mirror 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The relatively rapid growth rates achieved by many African countries in the last decade have raised hopes that the continent is finally on a path to economic convergence with Asia and Latin America, but history suggests that such optimism could be misplaced. Previous periods of rapid growth across Africa have often been followed by phases of economic decline which have erased many of the gains countries have achieved in per capita income. The continent's transition to modern economic growth will thus require a break in the boom-and-bust pattern which has characterized its economic performance during much of the 20th century. European experience since the Middle Ages suggests that the pattern of growth based on increasing demand for export staples, followed by economic reversals, has often resulted in limited overall gains in per capita income. This pattern was only broken following the introduction of significant institutional change. Placing Africa's recent economic performance in a wider historical perspective highlights the fact that the continent's level of per capita income is comparable to pre-industrial Europe and that the institutional changes needed to ensure sustained economic growth have yet to take place. Growth reversals remain a serious threat to Africa's future prosperity, and therefore it is incumbent on policy-makers to focus a great deal more on the introduction of measures that can encourage the development of a robust civil society.

informed discussed with policy community
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/ch562_...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Harrison Soaring Dragon, Stumbling Bear 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The speakers will argue that in a historic reversal of fortunes, China has overtaken the territory of the former Soviet Union in GDP per capita. China's model of rapid economic development offers powerful lessons for economies in transition, but they need to be seen in the country's historical and political context. The conditions that enabled China's success may not apply elsewhere and were not in evidence in the parallel case of the Soviet Union. China's exceptional size and long history of regionally decentralized authoritarianism (RDA) provided perhaps the unique circumstances for this favourable outcome. The authors stress that the key to sustained economic development is continuous policy reform. Whilst China's existing economic model has encouraged this in the past, current risks of the continuity of China's economic modernization include two traps: complacency an conflict. As the country moves towards middle-income status there is the danger that its leaders will cease to pursue reforms that are in the national interest and will acquiesce to the private interests of bureaucratic or corporate incumbents


promoted informed discussion and was followed by a seminar for Govt Economic Service personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/ch_gag...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Lockwood Fiscal Federalism in the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Looking at the effects of party control and performance management schemes on local government and its behaviour, Professor Lockwood's work shows that in spite of the many constraints on local government in England and Wales, party control does appear to matter for expenditure, taxes, and local public employment. Focusing on performance management schemes, such as the Comprehensive Performance Assessment (CPA), the author will also argue that such schemes have increased local government spending and taxation but generally have failed to improve efficiency in the use of resources. A roundtable discussion will follow.

promoted stimulating discussion and was followed by a roundtable with GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/ch_gag...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Mani The Power of Political Voice 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Crimes against women are a persistent and even a growing problem in many developing countries. In India, research suggests that having female political representatives can be an effective tool to empower women in the battle against gender crime.

promoted discussion and was followed by a seminar for GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/home/chatham/public_html/sites/default/files/20...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Oswald The Danger of High House Ownership 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The evidence is that high home ownership weakens the vitality of the labour market and slowly grinds out greater rates of joblessness' Although encouraging home ownership has been a major policy objective for Western governments in recent decades, Professors Blanchflower and Oswald argue that evidence from the United States strongly suggests that high home ownership is a major reason for the high unemployment rates of the industrialized nations in the post-war era.

stimulated lengthy discussion and was followed by seminar for GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/1013bp...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Prados de la Escosura Human Development as Positive Freedom 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact In this paper Professor Leandro Prados de la Escosura argues that substantial gains in world human development have been achieved since 1870, but research shows that the main improvement actually occurred between World War I and 1970. Despite initial successes in lifting human development, the socialist experiments of the 20th century failed to sustain momentum and then (with the exception of Cuba) stagnated and fell behind prior to the socialist model's ultimate demise. Since 1970, while most OECD countries have experienced a second (later life) health transition, all developing regions have fallen behind in this dimension.

stimulated discussion and was followed by a seminar for GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/8940_h...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Troeger Tax Competition and the myth of the Race-to-the-Bottom 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The majority of OECD countries have only experienced minor effects of capital market integration and capital tax competition since the mid-1980s. There have undoubtedly been some winners, mainly capital owners in larger liberal market economies, and some losers, especially large continental European welfare states. Not only have the dire predictions of the early doom theories not materialized; they have failed. Therefore, there is much to be gained in making the key assumptions underlying traditional tax competition models much more realistic, particularly in terms of predicting the impact of globalization on Western democracies. Tax competition affects countries differently and does not lead to a 'race to the bottom' since capital remains incompletely mobile. The competitiveness of a country determines fiscal adjustment strategies by others. Cutting capital taxes, therefore, will not necessarily generate more capital inflows. Tax competition and taxation have broader implications for the fiscal responses of countries to globalization and their redistribution efforts. Given that tax competition affects countries differently, governments will choose diverse strategies to cope with these international pressures. Competition will more negatively affect income inequality in countries that predominantly redistribute via the tax system than in those that historically set up a welfare state by redistributing via social transfers.

Promoted discussion amongst policy makers, academics and business people
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/0213bp...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Troeger Tax Competition and the myth of the Race-to-the-Bottom 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The majority of OECD countries have only experienced minor effects of capital market integration and capital tax competition since the mid-1980s. There have undoubtedly been some winners, mainly capital owners in larger liberal market economies, and some losers, especially large continental European welfare states. Not only have the dire predictions of the early doom theories not materialized; they have failed. Therefore, there is much to be gained in making the key assumptions underlying traditional tax competition models much more realistic, particularly in terms of predicting the impact of globalization on Western democracies. Tax competition affects countries differently and does not lead to a 'race to the bottom' since capital remains incompletely mobile. The competitiveness of a country determines fiscal adjustment strategies by others. Cutting capital taxes, therefore, will not necessarily generate more capital inflows. Tax competition and taxation have broader implications for the fiscal responses of countries to globalization and their redistribution efforts. Given that tax competition affects countries differently, governments will choose diverse strategies to cope with these international pressures. Competition will more negatively affect income inequality in countries that predominantly redistribute via the tax system than in those that historically set up a welfare state by redistributing via social transfers.

Promoted discussion amongst policy makers, academics and business people
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/0213bp...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing Paper - Woodruff Registering for Growth 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Low- and lower-middle-income countries typically have a large informal sector, very high self-employment rates and low levels of tax collection. A recent project in Sri Lanka to induce small firms in the informal sector to register did little to change the trajectory of most, but registration did help some firms generate rapid growth - an outcome with important policy implications. For governments in developing countries, getting firms to register should not be simply a cost-benefit calculation involving a trade-off between enforcement costs and tax collection. Registration can also improve the attitude of small business owners towards the state and, more importantly, help stimulate economic growth. The tendency of small firms to remain in the informal sector may have an even more pervasive detrimental impact on growth than one might expect. Their informal status usually allows them to avoid taxes by keeping costs and revenues off the books. However, the lack of information arising from production costs, and the basic accounting systems on which they rely, mean many costly errors in pricing can be made, resulting in considerable lost business. Focusing on avoiding taxes in the informal sector can often distract firms' attention away from important growth opportunities. Although taxes may discourage some economic activity, the problem in low-income countries is typically lack of capacity and under-enforcement, rather than over-taxation.

promoted discussion and was followed by a seminar for GES personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/chj854...
 
Description Chatham House Briefing paper - Mukand Internal Migration Politics and Culture 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact International Migration, Politics and Culture: the Case for Greater Labour Mobility

A policy shift to liberalise global labour markets could be a key tool for development and poverty reduction. Given the significant benefits globally, economists and policy-makers should devote more attention than at present to the practicalities of relaxing barriers to international labour mobility. The potential gains from the globalisation of labour could dwarf those from foreign aid or even the liberalisation of trade and capital flows across borders. For example, a decision by developed countries to liberalise immigration restrictions by a mere 3% could result in an estimated output gain of more than $150 billion. Although immigration policy is always controversial, the absence of serious debate in international circles is not due entirely to the distributional impact of labour migration, but in large part to the perceived threat to national identity and culture in destination countries. While permanent migration would yield relatively larger economic gains, temporary labour migration programmes, targeted to specific sectors and more modest in scope, could be the answer and would be far more acceptable and politically sustainable in countries where citizens perceive migrants as a threat to culture and national identity


Promoted discussion with policy community
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/ch_lab...
 
Description Chatham House briefing paper - Crafts Saving the Eurozone 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 'Saving the Eurozone: Is a 'Real' Marshall Plan the Answer?' by Nicholas Crafts, argues that the rationale for a new Marshall Plan would be both to reduce the chances of a chaotic break-up of the eurozone and to allow more time to prepare for this eventuality - while at the same time working to improve the medium term economic performance of the euro periphery. The objective of a Marshall Plan for crisis-hit countries in the euro periphery of southern Europe would be to underpin European economic integration and the survival of the eurozone by raising productivity growth. This would entail increased but not massive transfers of funds. However, this is not appreciated by most economists today, let alone the politicians who argue for such a plan. What was the original Marshall Plan and how did it work in practice? An accompanying podcast can be accessed here along with slides from the presentation here.

Active discussion with policy community/academics/business and journalists
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
URL http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/onlinepublications/briefing/chh166...
 
Description Crafts/Becker: Opportunities and Challenges in Fostering Growth in the EU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Prof. Nicholas Crafts (CAGE) discussed the long-term growth prospects in Europe with a particular focus on the question what difference the ongoing crisis makes. He reflected on policy responses to the 1930s crisis and whether and how they are of relevance today.

Prof. Sascha O. Becker (CAGE) provided a critical look at EU Regional Policy. Given the substantial amounts of money spent on the EU's Structural Funds, an important question is whether they do generate more growth. He pointed out weaknesses in current structure of EU Regional Policy and suggested avenues for reform.

Prof. Vera Troeger (CAGE) presented research on tax competition and the myth of the 'Race to the Bottom'. If a race to the bottom was a correct description of reality, governments should no longer be able to tax capital. She pointed out that attractive conditions for a highly skilled work force are key not only to attract workers but also firms employing these workers, i.e. taxes are not the only relevant dimension.

presentation to EU practitioners - network activity with EU personnel
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Crafts: Cepremap conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Cepremap conference "Productivity puzzles in Europe" 23 Jan 2015. Paris.
N. Crafts Keynote speaker. Talk entitled "Is Secular Stagnation the Future for Europe"
Audience of 60: Academics Policymakers, OECD economists.
Results: Good question and discussion

Good networking opportunity

Since 2008, labor productivity in Europe experiences strong ruptures. Most EU countries -including the top three economies- are facing flat or declining productivity. The performance in terms of job countries such as Germany and the UK are remarkable. By contrast, Spain long marked by a lack of productivity gains witnessed a spectacular revival in the apparent productivity.

Cepremap conference aims to analyze these developments and their determinants, and thus draw perspectives on the future evolution of productivity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.cepremap.fr/en/events/productivity-puzzles-europe/
 
Description How Britain will grow in the next two decades 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented at Seminar lead by the Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg

talk attended by Govt, bankers and academics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description How different will recovery be? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented at roundtable event discussing to foster an informal exchange of ideas and analysis between City and Academic Economists, Bank of England Staff and members of the Monetary Policy Committee

informal exchange of ideas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description How does government promote local economic renewal and regional rebalancing 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at BIS Ministerial Seminar

informing govt economists
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Innovation and foreign technology in Italy, 1861-2011 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at Banca D'Italia Workshop on Italy's International Economic Position 1861 -2012

book publication
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010
 
Description Macchiavello: Enterprise Insights into Developing Countries 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Type Of Presentation paper presentation
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A majority of the world's population makes their living from small businesses in developing countries. At the same time, stable jobs in larger firms seem to be associated with better outcomes. Economic growth and poverty elimination cannot take place without developing enterprise capabilities in poor countries.Dr Rocco Macchiavello and Professor Chris Woodruff, are among the world's leading specialists in this field.

Dr Macchiavello spoke about the role that large buyers in developed countries can play in fostering enterprise capabilities in low-income countries, and the key challenges that exporters face in forming and managing relationships with large foreign buyers.

Professor Woodruff spoke about how training for management can lift productivity in enterprises in emerging economies.

debate following talk with EU practitioners from DG Development, DG Trade the European Parliament and the European Investment bank
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Michener/McMahon: Designing a Central Bank for The 21st Century Eurozone 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The ongoing financial crisis in the Eurozone has focused attention on designing central banking institutions that promote sustainable economic growth, high employment, stable public finances, and financial stability.However, debates over the direction of monetary policy and responses to sovereign debt and banking crises point to the challenges of balancing national interests with pan European or Eurozone objectives. Recent research on institutional design sheds new light on these trade-offs and provides lessons for how European monetary policymaking and bank supervision might look in the twenty-first century.





Professor Kris Mitchener discussed the tensions that are built into the emerging European banking union and how other countries have confronted similar challenges in the past.Dr Michael McMahon talked about how the size and composition of central banks' policy committees influences the performance of monetary policy and how the relative "transparency" of committee decision making improves the preparation of participants.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Policy responses to post-war changes in the international environment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presented at Banca D'Italia Workshop on Italy's International Economic Position 1861 -2013

Produced a book which has been published by OUP in English and Italian
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2011
 
Description Understanding productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presented at BIS Ministerial Seminar: Designed for Non-Economists who wish to increase their understanding of the links between economics and BIS

informal exchange of ideas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010