Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas: dissemination of innovative data inputs, model outputs, documentation and skills
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Leeds
Department Name: Sch of Geography
Abstract
Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.
People |
ORCID iD |
| Paul Norman (Principal Investigator) | |
| Philip Rees (Co-Investigator) |
Publications
Buchan JC
(2019)
Failing to plan and planning to fail. Can we predict the future growth of demand on UK Eye Care Services?
in Eye (London, England)
Darlington-Pollock F
(2018)
Ethnic internal migration: The importance of age and migrant status
in The Geographical Journal
Holdsworth Clare
(2013)
Population and Society
Imtiaz Q
(2022)
CuO-based materials for thermochemical redox cycles: the influence of the formation of a CuO percolation network on oxygen release and oxidation kinetics.
in Discover chemical engineering
Lomax N
(2019)
The impacts of international migration on the UK's ethnic populations
in Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies
Norman P
(2013)
The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England
in Population Studies
Norman P
(2012)
Estimating detailed distributions from grouped sociodemographic data: 'get me started in' curve fitting using nonlinear models
in Journal of Population Research
Oliver Duke-Williams (Author)
(2010)
Getting ready for 2011 : issues in harmonizing analysis across three censuses using the ethnic and health questions
Paul Norman (Author)
(2011)
Relationships between population change, area deprivation and health
| Description | Projection methods: In academic circles, our findings relating to projection models, detailed method and outputs have been noted and discussed with experts in population estimating and projecting / forecasting as well as those involved in research with a focus on ethnicity. Of particular note have been our exchanges with Martin Bell, Tony Champion, David Coleman, Sylvie Dubuc, Nissa Finney, Ludi Simpson, Tom Wilson. More widely, we discussed our methods and outputs with national and local government organisations and NHS professionals. Of note have been discussions with ONS, NRS and NISRA (e.g. Suzanne Dunsmith, Jonathan Swan, Pete Large, Steve Smallwood, Esta Clarke, David Marshall), local government (e.g. Greg Ball, John Hollis, Baljit Bains, Michelle von Ahn) and health (e.g. Jake Abbas, Keri Wyborn). Our liaison with consultants Edge Analytics, the distributors of POPGROUP software (via Boden) have led us to each better understand the differences in projection models utilised in the different software and how we can produce compatible outputs. Demographic methods: Our summer school was attended by 39 people from a variety of backgrounds including academics (PhD students and staff from the universities of Leeds, Northumbria, Newcastle, Oxford, York and the Academy of Sciences Czech Republic); national and local government (ONS, NRS, Chester, Northumberland, Telford, Conwy, Gloucester, Westminster, etc), the NHS (public health observatories and PCTs) and demographic consultant Richard Potter (Analytics Cambridge). Conference on methods The conference was attended by 81 people overlapping with and extending persons at the summer school. Alongside project staff, presenters included Lisa Buckner, Alan Marshall, David Martin, Tom Wilson (Universities of Leeds, Manchester, Southampton & Queensland); John Hollis (Greater London Authority), Suzanne Dunsmith & Jonathan Swan (ONS) and Richard Culf (Edge Analytics). |
| First Year Of Impact | 2010 |
| Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |
| Description | LONG-TERM POPULATION AND PROPERTY FORECASTS FOR THAMES WATER |
| Organisation | Thames Water Utilities Limited |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Private |
| PI Contribution | Thames Water invited the School of Geography at the University of Leeds to deliver projections of the populations and households in the Thames Water supply region. Our expertise in ethnic population projection was considered an essential input to Thames Water's strategic assessment of future water demand. Prior work has shown that there were clear differences between ethnic groupings in their domestic consumption of water. Our research using Thames Water's Domestic Water User Survey data established that the difference in per capita consumption between households with an Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi head (household representative person) and households with heads in other groups was 50 litres per day. As an input to Water Demand Forecasts we used our two NewETHPOP projections (1) a MID projection aligned to ONS assumptions and (2) a LOW projection aligned to ONS assumptions but with different assumptions for international migration reflecting lower net international migration under Brexit). We added a third projection to these two that assumed a HIGH net international migration flow, as observed in 2015-2016. The projections were extended from an end date of 2061 to an end date of 2101, to meet Thames Water's strategic planning objectives. |
| Collaborator Contribution | Thames Water asked us to extend our projections to 2101 from 2061. Such long-term sub-national projections have not been implemented by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) nor by the Greater London Authority (GLA) with respective end dates on 2039 and 2050. Thames Water asked us to develop household projections from the population projections and provided intensive feedback on our model for household water consumption by occupant number, property type and ethnicity. We have submitted a paper on this work to the Journal of Water Resource Management. Thames Water asked us to compare our projections with those of ONS, GLA and EDGE Analytics (a consultancy contracted to deliver property based projections to 2045). This comparison showed that our projected populations out to 2050 were higher than those of the other organizations for two TW Water Resource Zones: the London WRZ and the Slough-Wycombe-Aylesbury WRZ, but were lower for the other 4 WRZs outside London produced by EDGE. Our projections were higher for WRZs with high ethnic diversity, reflecting the higher growth potential of ethnic minorities compared with the majority White British and Irish group. Our projections were lower for WRZs with low (though increasing) ethnic diversity because our internal in-migration projections based applying recent internal migration rates were lower than the in-migration associated with local authority housing plans projected by EDGE. |
| Impact | We are in process of writing up the following papers from journal publication: Nawaz R, Rees P, Clark S, Mitchell G, McDonald A, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Domestic Water Demand in the Thames Region: A Model for Use in Preparing Long-Term Projections. Submitted to Water Resources Management. Nawaz R, Rees P, Clark S, Mitchell G, McDonald A, Kalamandeen M, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Long Term Domestic Water Demand Projections for London and the Thames Valley. In draft, target journal Water Resources Management. Rees P, Clark S, Nawaz R, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) Projecting populations and households for subnational areas over the long-term: Application in water demand forecasts for Thames Water. In draft, target journal Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy. Rees P, Clark S, Wohland P, Kalamandeen M, Boden P, Jasinska M, Tonkins W, Corr B, Lambert C & Henderson R (2018) A comparison of sub-national population projection methods, assumptions and results: a case study of the Thames Water Region. In draft, target journal Population, Space and Place. Rees P, Norman P & Wohland P (2018) Development of an Ethnic Fertility Convergence Scenario. In draft, target journal Population Studies. This collaboration involves population geographers (Rees, Boden), computer scientists/statisticians (Clark, Tonkins), environmental scientists (Nawaz, Kalamandeen), environmental geographers (McDonald, Mitchell), water managers (Lambert, Henderson), demographers (Corr). |
| Start Year | 2016 |
| Description | Population trends in the UK, Yorkshire, Leeds and Bradford : the continuing ethnic and ageing transitions |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at a Common Purpose Workshop, Leeds Federated Housing Association, Burley Road, Leeds, November 2010 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
| Description | The UK census : past, present and future |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Paper at Cutting Edge Geography a workshop for secondary geography teachers |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
| Description | The future of the UK's ethnic group populations at national and local scales |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at the Centre for Demography, Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, Fareham, Hampshire, October 2010 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
| Description | What happens when international migrants settle? : ethnic group trends and projections for UK local areas 2051 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at Yorkshire & Humberside Public Health Observatory, January 2011 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |
| Description | What happens when international migrants settle? : ethnic group trends and projections for UK local areas to 2051 |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Primary Audience | |
| Results and Impact | Presentation at the School of Geography, University of Leeds, Wednesday 17 November 2010 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | |