A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment of the Membership, Stategies and Tactics of Dissident Irish Republican Organisations

Violent 'dissident' Irish republicanism has been evident since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, yet it has received only a modest amount of academic analysis. Since 1998, dissident Irish republicans have killed over fifty people and committed the worst atrocity in Northern Ireland at Omagh within months of the Agreement. From 2009-11, dissidents were responsible for 413 shootings and bombings and killed two British Army soldiers and two Police Service of Northern Ireland officers. In 2010, the Head of MI5 admitted that his organisation had underestimated the durability of militant republicanism. The 2010 ESRC Northern Ireland Election Survey found considerable differences in the level of threat perception regarding dissidents, with 53% of Unionists believing that threat to be 'major', compared to only 17% of Catholics.

Despite dissident violence having occurred for some time, there are only a small number of academic items written on the topic. There are information gaps concerning who supports such groups and why; the preferment for a particular organisation; what dissidents hope to achieve given the apparent inability of violence to achieve the political goal of a united Ireland and what, if anything, would moderate their approach.

Using a very wide range of interviews with members of dissident organisation via guaranteed unprecedented access, this project aims to rectify the knowledge deficits evident in respect of the composition, motivations, organisational differences, strategies and tactics of dissident republicans. Specifically, the project wishes to:

Assess the theoretical and empirical development of dissident republicanism. Is it part of an enduring historical phenomenon, or a response to perceived disadvantage? Alternatively, should the emergence of dissident groups - or 'spoilers' - be seen as part of a broader global picture, an attendant part of all peace processes rather than be seen as part of a distinctive Irish 'tradition'?

Examine what unites and disunites dissident groups. There have been numerous splits amongst Irish republicans. Why do dissident groups also appear liable to regular fracturing?

Explore the reasons why individuals back dissident republican organisations and the basis of their selection of a particular organisation. Are they motivated primarily by ideology; sectarianism, social conditions; family tradition or other motivations?

Analyse how dissident groups mobilise and attempt to attract support. How important are issues such as Orange Order parades or policing issues in
helping dissident republican groups to garner sympathy?

Assess the short, medium and long-term aims of dissident republicans. The Provisional IRA used violence for almost three decades yet did not achieve British withdrawal from Northern Ireland. What do dissidents hope to achieve and how do they hope to attain what was impossible via a much larger campaign of violence. To what extent are dissidents fixated on shorter-term 'achievements' such as nationalist hostility to stronger security force responses as means of attracting sympathy? Are there conditions under which ceasefires could be attained? Does the lack of mandate matter (the 2010 ESRC survey found a very low, but not negligible level of sympathy for dissidents)

Via contacts developed over years of work on Northern Ireland, the bidders have secured interview access to each dissident organisation, a feature lacking in the limited academic work undertaken on dissident republicanism. The research will offer a holistic approach, theorising the development of dissidence (and questioning the utility of the term) whilst providing the most comprehensive analysis yet of who belongs to dissident groups - and why.

This project will be high profile beyond academia. It will yield a book, several journal articles, two conferences and sizeable media coverage. It will benefit policy-makers attempting a permanent end to violence.

Findings from the research may be of value to Northern Ireland/Irish society broadly, in explaining the persistence of divergent, militant strands of republicanism, opposed to aspects of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and the current political dispensation. The research may have particular impact upon a range of organisations dealing with various aspects of current political and societal arrangements. These may include:
The Parades Commission, the organisation responsible for the regulation of parades in Northern Ireland, in terms of attitudes towards, and the significance of, Orange or 'dissident' republican parades;
The Community Relations Council, in regards to improving inter-communal relationships and assessing the extent to which different strands of republicanism.
The Commission for Victims and Survivors, dealing with those bereaved or suffering as a consequence of the Northern Ireland conflict.
Political parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly, in terms of how they might respond to the structural, ideological or other impetuses to 'dissident' republicanism
Media organisations, in terms of providing accurate analyses of the nature and political outlook of 'dissident' republican groupings.