Long-term Trajectories of Crime in the UK

This grant follows on from an earlier ESRC-funded and very successful scoping project held by the lead applicant (see Case for Support). The earlier grant was a scoping project, undertaken in order to assess the extent to which it would be possible and desirable to undertake more prolonged and in-depth investigations into the social, economic and cultural impacts of Thatcherite public policy on contemporary UK society, especially as these features relate to criminal justice policy. The earlier grant explored the on-going surveys which the UK has been fortunate enough to invest in since the 1970s and 1980s, such as the Labour Force Survey, the General Household Survey and the British Crime Survey. In addition to this, there are other, non-governmental surveys which exist (e.g. the British Social Attitudes Survey) and which provide a basis for the assessment of the direction of changes in social attitudes and experiences over time.

Following the earlier project, we have developed our theoretical model of the ways in which Thatcherite social and economic policies 'operated' with regards to specific policy domains (the economy, housing, social security and education policies) and how these had 'knock-on' effects for crime and crime policies (see Hay and Farrall, 2011 and Farrall and Hay, 2010). With Colin Hay (Dept of Politics, Sheffield University) the lead applicant has also held a seminar at the British Academy in order to further explore these matters (this was held in July 2011).

This grant aims to take forward this research agenda by exploring trends in crime (a key social problem) and key social and economic processes (social attitudes, trust in governments, economic inequality, economic optimism, housing repossessions and other measures of 'social stress'). Key to our understanding of these processes is an detailed consideration of the economic and social policies of the Thatcher governments (1979-1990) and by extension the Major governments (1990-1997).

The grant uses a form of analysis called time series modelling. This looks at changes over time (e.g. from 1960-2000) and hence is able to tell us about long-term trends and the ways in which these are susceptible to changes in the wider political philosophy which lies behind social and economic policies. Lessons learnt will be disseminated via a conference in London.

As well as writing academic journal articles and holding events for other users of existing data sets, the research team will help to make a film about the impacts of Thatcherite social and economic policies on crime in the UK (both Stephen and Emily have past experience of producing short films on policy-related topics (see ESRC grant RES189250258)).

Five impact activities are planned. These are:

* a seminar held jointly with the Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, London, aimed at policy makers, people working in 'think tanks', academics and journalists,

* a workshop held jointly with the UK Data Service, in Manchester, aimed at encouraging the use of the data set which we will have produced and time series analyses generally,

* an email circulation list to keep colleagues and potential users of the data set produced informed of progress, and

* the lodging of the data set with the Data Archive once the project is completed.

* the production of a film about the impact of Thatcherite social and economic policies on crime (in the style of a historial documentary).


We believe that the research project will benefit the following groups:

* those researching politics, contemporary (i.e. post-second world war British) history, criminology and public policy,

* those with an interest in the long and medium term consequences of shifts in political philosophies and their resulting impacts (those in think tanks and government departments),

* those outside of the UK studying countries where analogous changes have been undertaken.


Such groups, we believe, will benefit from this research because we seek to:

* Understand processes of change and policy implementation over a long period;

* Understand some of the unintended consequences of dramatic policy change(s), their unexpected and 'double effects';

* Understand trajectories of change at national and sub-national levels.

They will also benefit more directly from our commitment to lodge the resulting data set with the UK Data Archive, thereby allowing others to use the data we have collated for their own purposes.


In order to ensure that potential beneficaries have the opportunity to benefit from this research we shall:

* publicise the research via our own and the ESRC's web sites;

* attend a number of the most appropriate national and international conferences in order to formally present our papers and to present posters relating to our work and to engage in debate with other researchers;

* exploit our existing network of contacts within the UK's policy and think tank communities, including writing commissioned articles for such bodies


All of those involved in the project have a great deal of experience in communicating their research to practitioners and those working in policy and think tanks (see CVs). They are often invited to provide short articles for such audiences and are well connected in this respect. All have experience of working with the media, thereby ensuring a wider dissemination of their research.