'The Drivers of Military Strategic Reform in the Face of Economic Crisis and Changing Warfare'

The project `The Drivers of Military Strategic Reform in the Face of Economic Crisis and Changing Warfare' asks the central question 'What are the key determinants of contemporary European military forces?'. The context of the research focuses on the particular contemporary position of Europe and its armed forces. Since the end of the Cold War, how Europeans feel and think about their militaries has changed. In particular, Europe's militaries have become viewed as less forces of defence and more of expeditions such as intervention or crisis management. For instance, Britain with its traditional focus on combat operations is in stark contrast to the average German view of its armed forces as security without the combat. This has been referred to as changes in Europe's security identities.

While the change in the way that Europeans think about their militaries has been changing since the end of the Cold War, more recent issues have put Europe's militaries in crisis. The first and perhaps most significant for everyday lives is the global financial crisis, which has had a large effect on government budgets and in particular defence budgets. The expectation from the financial crisis is that we will get much smaller, less capable militaries in Europe. In other words, Europe's governments have determined that traditional militaries are too expensive and thus their traditional ability to project power will diminish across land, air and sea. This is what we refer to as the 'resource' hypothesis: IF money matters, THEN militaries will bear the brunt.

At the same time, militaries face developments in strategic doctrine. We see evidence that European militaries are beginning to innovate towards a 'network centric' model by incorporating the US's C4ISR concept into defence systems (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance). As a result, the focus is on redistributing resources to invest in areas that could make European militaries 'leaner, faster, meaner'. This is what we refer to as the 'strategic' hypothesis: IF developments in strategy matter, THEN militaries will find new ways to approach traditional combat challenges.

On the grander scale, changes in the trans-Atlantic might explain changes in European military forces. In 2011, the US National Security Strategy stated that it would be focusing its attention on the Asia-Pacific region. While the document does not say a withdrawal from Europe altogether, comments since by the US Secretary of Defense and the NATO General Secretary have made it clear that there will be a change in the US presence in Europe. As a result, Europe and NATO are left in a crisis. How might European militaries seek to address this change in the European security architecture? Our 'geo-political' hypothesis suggests that IF changes in geo-politics matters, THEN Europe's militaries will attempt to replace the US contribution to European security.

The project will address these three hypotheses by examining European militaries through a comparative framework that focuses on

- Assets
- Force structures
- Operational Scenarios

The case studies are
- Belgium
- Denmark
- Estonia
- France
- Germany
- Great Britain
- Italy
- Netherlands
- Norway
- Poland
- Spain
- Sweden

The research will be carried out by systematic interviews across Ministries of Defence and NATO Allied Command in Belgium and Norfolk, Virginia, USA. The result of these interviews will be a qualitative dataset on the state of Europe's contemporary armed forces. Interviews are based on prior EPSRC research identification and procedures.

The project will deliver a research monograph (Andrew Humphreys at Routledge is keen to have the book published there) and three research articles following from conference presentations. Furthermore, the project will generate policy briefs and papers throughout the data collection and writing up period.

What impact is planned for this project? The primary theoretical argument is that Europe's militaries are becoming 'smarter' nor 'poorer' as they transition to manage challenges to national defence. The underlying policy relevant argument is that the fiscal crisis and changing geo-politics provides a political opportunity for states to modernise their combat forces by progressing from 'platform centric' to 'network centric' operations. As a result, this project will make recommendations on assets, unit structure and combat scenarios as generated by the theoretical and empirical findings of the project. The engagement and communication of these recommendations will be discussed below.

With the policy implications of the project in our scopes, we involve stake-holders throughout the project process. Following on from funding from the Engineering, Physical Sciences Research Council (PI Galbreath), we have developed a working relationship with the Land Warfare Centre at Warminster who have made a major contribution to modernising strategic doctrine along the lines of incorporating a 'network centric' approach to warfare at the strategic and operational levels. For this reason, our starting point and primary contribution would be with and on the British defence context and secondarily to European militaries. At the British level, we are keen to examine the nature and added-value of the UK-France defence cooperation agreement on the drivers of strategic change. for this reason, we have established contacts in the MoD. UK stake-holders will be represented on the project steering committee.

Relevant UK stake-holders are:
UK Ministry of Defence
Defence Science and Technology Laboratory
British Army Land Warfare Centre

Furthermore, we have focused on Poland, Denmark and Benelux as other countries (or groups of countries) that have the potential to gain specific policy-relevant contributions from this research project. We will bring this wider circle of stake-holders into the project during the impact and output phases.

Relevant international stake-holders are:
Ministry of Defence in -
Belgium
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Great Britain
Italy
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Spain
Sweden

A major question for policy-makers in this financial and political environment is how to make the most of their militaries. The outcomes of this research will inform the answer to this question. More specifically, we aim to provide a guide to policy-makers on how to maximise their military forces during times of financial and geo-political flux. For this, we have engaged users from the MoD, Chatham House and the Royal United Services Institute in the design of this research. We also have designed the project management board to bring users into the operation and outcomes of the project.

We seek to impact defence forces in Europe as well through dissemination and communication at the national levels and through collaboration with unique units such as the British Army's Land Warfare Centre in Warminster. We also seek to involve other specialised units during the course of research, particularly in France where the adoption of the C4ISR (Command, Control, Communication, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) concept has also been a significant strategic change.

Finally, the project engages with the defence industry, especially in the area of C4ISR technologies. In doing so, we add value to how defence ministries, their technology arms (e.g. DSTL) and the defence industry itself, including BAE systems and DefenceIQ, drive the development of military strategy.

Overall, the project aims to inform decision making and policy, in addition to its academic goals of uncovering the causal effects of strategic change in contemporary European forces.