Kenya 2013-2014: From election monitoring to longer-term reform

Lead Research Organisation: University of Warwick
Department Name: Politics and International Studies

Abstract

This project aims to enable the UK government to better understand how to promote peace and democracy in Kenya, and to use the lessons of the Kenyan election of 2013 to help a range of international governments and policy makers to develop better democracy promotion and conflict avoidance strategies.

Kenya's 2013 elections have widely been seen as a crucial test of the impact of donor interventions and new institutional arrangements to deliver peaceful and credible elections. In the aftermath of the disputed elections of 2007 and the violence that followed, a substantial programme of political reform was drawn up, which intended to ensure a combination of democratic consolidation and institutional renewal that would prevent any repeat of such violence, or of the malpractice which helped to trigger it. These internationally supported changes included a new constitution and a raft of new legislation on political parties and elections, as well as security sector reform, a transformation of the judiciary and an entirely new election commission.

A wide range of bilateral parties, international agencies, and Kenyan civil society groups, provided substantial external support for these far-reaching processes, and for the 2013 elections themselves. In all, this amounts to an unusually sustained and comprehensive attempt to remake governance - all conducted without any change of regime, and in the life of a single parliament. Yet it is already clear that the impact of these reforms has been uneven. In the run up to the election, key parts of the legislative framework were removed, while security reform was never genuinely pursued. The conduct of the elections thus provides valuable evidence as to whether, how far, and in what ways this kind of programme of legal and institutional reform and electoral support can produce political transformation.

This project will analyse the effectiveness of this international and national effort in the light of the events of the election itself. It will use this analysis to develop recommendations for further support to reform and electoral processes in Kenya, and to identify comparative lessons for programmes of reform and electoral support elsewhere. The recommendations will be aimed both at Kenya's international partners in the UK government and in other governments and agencies, and at Kenyans directly involved in the reform process - whether within government, or as part of civil society organizations.

The project builds directly on, and will develop, an emerging cooperation between policy-makers in the UK government and a group of academic researchers. Through this partnership, the UK government - through the Africa Conflict Prevention Pool (ACPP) - is currently funding the first phase of this research on the Kenya elections by Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis. This research is directly informing UK government contingency planning and current electoral support work through reports and regular meetings between the researchers and staff from the FCO, DfID and MoD, in the UK and in Kenya.

Through circulation of reports and through meetings, the research is also being shared with the UK's international partners, and with some international agencies as well as with civil society organizations in Kenya. As a result, the project will have a real world impact that will extend beyond Kenya and the UK. The project has already provided a substantial body of data on the elections, and has generated a network of contacts with research-users in the UK, Kenya and more widely. The knowledge exchange phase will ensure that this research-based knowledge is used effectively in further promoting reform in Kenya, and in applying the lessons learned from this to programmes of political reform and democratic consolidation in other countries.

Planned Impact

This project addresses the question of the conditions under which democratization is successful, and how donor governments can best promote democratic consolidation. This is a topic of great significance to a range of international governments and agencies, as well as the millions of people who live in emerging democracies.

Knowledge exchange:

The project is primarily concerned with feeding lessons learnt from Kenya's 2013 election back into future electoral and constitutional reform in Kenya and other semi-democratic regimes. An initial pre-election phase was funded by the UK's African Conflict Prevention Pool (ACPP), which demonstrates an existing collaborative partnership. The findings will also be of great relevance to civil-society and donor efforts to strengthen electoral systems and the quality of democracy around the world. Users will include:

(1) NGOs, policy makers, and pro-democracy advocates in Kenya;

(2) International promoters of free and fair elections in the UK policy community (FCO, DfID), in the international donor community (such as the European Union, Unites States Agency for International Development (USAID), and United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and in the regional consultative bodies (such as the African Union and East African Community).

(3) International agencies concerned with conflict management and resolution, within the UK policy community (the ACPP: FCO, DFID, MOD), and international bodies such as the United Nations.

(4) Think tanks and policy advisory bodies such as the International Crisis Group (ICG) and Human Rights Watch (HRW).

Non-academic users will benefit in a variety of ways, enabling better informed and more effective work by donors, agencies, and civil society groups, and thus fostering a higher quality and more stable democracy in Kenya and elsewhere.

(1) By accessing new data about the context within which they work (the political economy of Kenya) and so being able to make more informed decisions, which has been highlighted by the UK government as one of the major 'value added' points of the current project.

(2) By accessing new information concerning the effectiveness of their strategies and interventions in Kenya, allowing them to make more informed decisions. The ACPP has explicitly stated this should be a goal of the second stage of this project, and fits with DFID's focus on Monitoring and Evaluation.

(3) Through the opportunity to collectively share, analyse, and evaluate past experiences with other organizations, researchers and agencies involved in electoral support and governance reform in Kenya. Policy makers have repeatedly told the researchers that they lack time to reflect on their overall goals and to 'compare notes' with colleagues, even when working collaboratively.

(4) As a result of specific and viable recommendations regarding the best way that donors, international agencies, and civil society groups, can support long-term peace and democratization in Kenya and similar countries.

(5) From new networks that will be built as a result of the repeated interaction of members of civil society, donors and international agencies at meetings and dissemination events, facilitating future collaboration.

While knowledge exchange with policy makers is the focus of this project, there will also be some academic beneficiaries as a by-product of this work:

(1) Academics interested in African and Kenyan politics, who will benefit from new empirical and theoretical contributions on the Kenyan elections of 2013 and the role played by civil society actors, donors and security services.

(2) Academics engaged in the study of elections, democracy promotion, and conflict avoidance, who will benefit from new empirical and theoretical advances in the study of the activities and strategies employed by international policy makers.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Title Contribution to exhibition on 'Voting matters: citizenship and technologies of African elections' at Nairobi Museum, Kenya, October-November 2015 
Description Drawing upon research findings from this project, Justin Willis was one of three academics who helped design and create this exhibition. He helped to write the story and captions, to identify and gather items, and he spoke at the opening event. The exhibition was displayed first at Nairobi Museum, and then in Dar Es Salaam at the Alliance Francaise. 
Type Of Art Artistic/Creative Exhibition 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The exhibition was well attended, but neither of the venues operate any systems for accurately counting footfall, let alone assessing changes in attitude or opinions among attendees. There was some media coverage. This included an article by Lynch in the Saturday Nation, 17 October 2015, How technology in elections can be used to increase public confidence (http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/The-advantage-of-using-technology-in-elections/-/440808/2917342/-/13fsvns/-/index.html) and Cheeseman in the Sunday Nation, 18 October 2015, Art of elections: Package is as important as the message (http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Package-is-as-important-as-the-message/-/440808/2918472/-/i2j3xnz/-/index.html). 
URL http://ifra-nairobi.net/event/voting-materiality-conference
 
Description ELECTIONS AND DEMOCRATISATION:

Despite peaceful polls in 2013, the ethnic tensions that underpinned Kenya's 2007 elections remain and, as a result, electoral violence continues to be a major threat. It is important to make sure that efforts to promote a 'peace narrative' go hand-in-hand with a commitment to allowing opposition parties their democratic right to hold rallies and criticise the government.

Kenya's electoral commission needs stronger and more effective leadership, greater technical capacity, and an injection of experienced and committed manpower.

Many Kenyans do not understand how the new two-round electoral process works, which has serious implications for future elections when a second round is likely to be required. Civic education efforts around elections should be integrated into broader outreach programmes about the political system and should be rolled out well in advance of polling day.

Current rules and regulations governing the release of election results are insufficient to ensure the timely release of results. This makes it almost impossible to produce hard evidence of electoral manipulation within the time frames demanded for petition processes under Kenya's new constitution.

Electoral technology is no substitute for comprehensive election monitoring by domestic monitors and party agents.

In the absence of socio-economic change or political will, institutional regulations are unlikely to change established ways of mobilising support. Political leaders - and hence the parties they create - are unlikely to change their behaviour unless they believe that they will win more votes by doing so.

Donor promotion of prosecutions (for example, at the International Criminal Court) can have a valuable deterrent effect on the deployment of political violence, but leaves the international community open to damaging accusations of political interference.

DEVOLUTION AND SECURITY:

The majority of Kenyans remain supportive of devolution, even though the new county governments have fallen far short of popular expectations. Most people who support devolution do so because it "brings resources to the grassroots". Most people who reject devolution do so because of the cost and because it fosters local divisions.

Events so far suggest that there has been some real devolution of power in Kenya, but that county governments have become fields for local battles over patronage with much energy expended on new political battles at the county level.

Minority groups are increasingly angry at what they perceive to be their ongoing marginalisation despite the new constitution's promises of inclusivity, and devolution has exacerbated existing tensions in some areas.

Meanwhile, the reformed judiciary - originally envisaged as the guardian of the new constitution - has become a political battleground and seems unable to act consistently in support of the principles of devolution.

The public feel increasingly vulnerable to crime, and the government's approach to the problem of terrorism and radicalisation has remained heavy on the side of repression and light in the building of community relations as well as the prevention of radicalisation. In these circumstances, while external support for Kenya's security services is likely to continue, this is unlikely to produce systematic improvement in efficiency or respect for human rights and the rule of law.
Exploitation Route The project's approach to election-monitoring has informed discussions and plans for academic involvement in UK government election-monitoring projects in other parts of Africa (including Uganda and Zambia).

Project reports have been taken up by FCO and DfID in their planning for programme activities in Kenya in 2017.

Findings on the need to balance 'peace' with 'justice' can help inform future peace-building efforts in Kenya and beyond.

Findings on devolution - as one of the first studies of devolution in Kenya - can make a significant contribution to people's understandings and academic debates.
Sectors Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy

 
Description This project has had two aspects. It began as a cooperation on long-term election monitoring and conflict early warning, which was funded by the UK government Africa Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) (December 2012-August 2013). Funding through the Knowledge Exchange programme then allowed that cooperation to be developed and extended to include a retrospective analysis of lessons learned from Kenya's 2013 elections and research on the challenges and prospects for the rolling-out of Kenya's new constitution in the wake of those elections. The cooperation with the constituent parts of the ACPP (FCO, DfID and MoD) provided regular access to policy-makers throughout the period of the research and in its aftermath. The research team provided regular spoken and written briefings to the ACPP. These initially focussed on elections and then broadened out to consider devolution, the implementation of the constitution, and security. Members of the research team met eight times with policy-makers in London and Nairobi for formal briefings during the course of the project; they also had three informal closed-door sessions with the British High Commissioner in Nairobi, and were asked to provide and discuss a series of 'scenario scanning' options for future political developments in order to inform policy discussions. Reports submitted were also widely circulated beyond the ACPP and, over the course of the project, briefings were directly discussed with officials from a number of governments and organisations including UNDP, EU, USAID, the American Embassy in Nairobi, CIDA, Canadian Embassy, Japanese Embassy, Royal Norwegian Embassy, the Dutch Embassy, Royal Embassy of Denmark, High Commission of Canada, Australian High Commission, Belgian Embassy, National Democratic Institute, French Foreign Office, US State Department, and the National Intelligence Council of the USA. Through the contacts provided by these meetings, members of the team were also invited to make presentations at the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Hague and to the Belgian ambassador in Nairobi. The research experience, and reputation, derived from this engagement led to further presentations and briefings. This included a closed-door meeting of UK and US policy-makers, and an audience of French diplomats and military staff. Cheeseman Lynch and Willis were also contracted to put together a political settlements analysis in early 2015 to help guide UK government engagement in Kenya with respect to ethnic politics and political violence. The direct impact of these briefings on policy decisions has not always been disclosed for reasons of security and confidentiality. However, UK based policy makers have consistently stressed the influence of the project, while the broader impact is demonstrated by the ongoing nature of the discussions that the project facilitated. Most significantly, in the lead up to Kenya's 2017 elections the East African Research Fund (EARF), which is managed by the FCO and DfID, opened a call for a project on " Kenyan elections 2017: early-warning and monitoring". From discussions with the EARF, as well as from the name and details of the call, it is clear that this project was modelled on our ACPP and ESRC knowledge exchange project. Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis successfully applied for this grant as part of a bid managed by the Rift Valley Institute - a research institute in Nairobi - with Lynch acting as the research lead for a team of 9 researchers (3 British and 5 Kenyan). This project began in February 2017 and concluded in March 2017 and involved a series of briefings and discussions with members of the British government around preparations for, and their response to, Kenya's 2017 elections. According to Nic Hailey, the British High Commissioner to Kenya during the course of the EARF project, "Our initial HMG panning, years before the 2017 polls, drew on lessons learned from 2013's elections from the research project's previous iteration. As the elections last year approached, you and your Kenyan counterparts' regular reporting on the main issues at play and the groups and dynamics shaping them helped us to navigate a period in which almost all the UK's interests in Kenya were engaged HMG colleagues in London valued the regular references in the High Commission's reporting to the views of our academic panel, which they saw (as I did) as enriching and bolstering (or helpfully challenging) our policy judgements. Indeed my sense is that the work we did together has become seen in parts of HMG as a model for the real-time use of external evidence in international policy-making. The DFID research hub has shared our experience widely as an example of this within HMG". Second, the repeated nature of briefings and invitations with and beyond the HMG to date suggest that the research knowledge provided has been highly valued by the donor community. This was reflected in meetings during the course of the Knowledge Exchange and EARF projects, and in ongoing meetings - with the next scheduled for May 2019. Cheeseman was also subsequently asked to help implement a project modelled on this research for the United Nations Development Programme ahead of the Nigerian elections of 2015, and in Ethiopia ahead of the next elections, on the basis of positive evaluations of the Kenyan project within the donor community. This indicates that both the lessons generated by the project and the very method of long-term academic election monitoring that the project pioneered have been influential both within Kenya and beyond. Alongside this direct engagement with policy-makers in the UK and allied governments, the project has engaged directly with the public and policy-makers in Kenya through the newspaper opinion pieces written by Lynch and Cheeseman in the Saturday Nation and Sunday Nation respectively during the course of the project. These were widely read and commented upon in Kenya, and encouraged public discussion over the project research findings relating both to the conduct of the elections and to the implementation of the new constitution. Through radio appearances, many of these lessons were also shared beyond Kenya via the BBC and other media.
First Year Of Impact 2013
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description ESRC Standard Grant
Amount £658,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/L002345/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 01/2014 
End 12/2016
 
Description Kenya elections 2017: Early-warning and long-term monitoring
Amount £198,000 (GBP)
Organisation East Africa Research Fund 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country Kenya
Start 02/2017 
End 11/2017
 
Description We did not apply: we were asked by the FCO to design and produce a report analysing the dynamics of ethnic politics in Kenya and recommending policy options to improve political stability
Amount £9,960 (GBP)
Organisation Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2014 
End 03/2015
 
Description Briefing for UK and other diplomatic staff in London on forthcoming Kenya elections 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nic Cheeseman and Justin Willis made presentations to a meeting at the Foreign Office involving diplomats from the K, US and European partners, on the prospects for forthcoming elections. This part of the meeting was followed by a closed meeting to discuss policy options in terms of electoral support and emergency preparedness.

The meeting helped inform planning in the UK and other governments.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Briefing for new UK High Commissioner to Kenya 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact At the request of the new British High Commissioner to Kenya, Nic Hailey, the project team (Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis) met with him, his political officers and representatives from the UKs Department for International Development (DfID) in January 2016 to provide a briefing on Kenyan politics and the prospects for the 2017 election. We were asked to continue to provide such briefings in the future.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Briefing of new Director for Africa at the UK Foreign Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Cheeseman was asked to join an expert panel (five people) to brief the new Africa Director at the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Neil Wigan. He spoke about the significant of presidential term limits and the political crises that often surround them, and likely trends in African elections. This included preparing and presenting a short report.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Briefing on Kenya's 2017 election for EU Heads of Mission, Nairobi 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The team (Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis) presented a briefing to the EU heads of mission on Kenya's electoral politics and preparations for the 2017 election. The meeting was attended by 22 people (either heads of mission or political officers) and took the form of a short presentation based around a precirculated document on lessons learned from the 2013 elections, followed by questions and discussion. We were asked if we would continue meeting with the heads of missions over the forthcoming months, and agreed to do so. The first of these meetings is scheduled to take place at the Hungarian Ambassador's residence on Friday 18 March.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Briefing on Kenya's 2017 election for the Donor Election Group, Nairobi 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The team (Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis) presented a briefing to the Donor Election Group on Kenya's electoral politics and preparations for the 2017 election. The meeting was attended by around 20 people (mainly political officers from different embassies) and took the form of a short presentation based around a precirculated document on lessons learned from the 2013 elections, followed by questions and discussion. We were asked if we would continue meeting with the heads of missions over the forthcoming months, and agreed to do so. In a letter "warmly" thanking us for our "excellent engagement", the co-chairs of the Group note how our "presentation on lessons learned from the 2013 elections and recommendations for the upcoming elections in 2017 was outstanding, succinctly covering topics of great importance and providing valuable insight in to our international support efforts. Both your extensive expertise on the Kenyan elections and your comparative analysis of electoral processes in the wider region are most helpful for us as international partners as we tailor our support for free, fair and credible elections in Kenya. We are therefore truly grateful for the lively and fruitful exchange we had with you and hope to be able to engage again soon".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Briefing to British High Commission staff on coastal politics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Justin Willis provided a briefing to High Commission staff, and one colleague from the Japanese embassy, on political unrest at Kenya coast. There was discussion about the policy implications of this.

This briefing helped to inform UK policy; since 2013 the UK government has encouraged the government of Kenya to address political grievances at the coast, and has provided additional development resources to projects on the Kenya coast,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2012
 
Description Civil society workshop on devolution and security (Nairobi, September 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The workshop was attended by around 40 participants including over 30 civil society activists from across Kenya and several analysts and academics who focus on issues of devolution and/or security. Participants discussed security concerns and security operations in the context of devolution, and the role of civil society.

The workshop initiated a discussion between civil society organisations on emerging security issues and new challenges and opportunities posed by devolution. Discussions also fed into briefing papers presented to the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and Department for International Development in Nairobi and London by Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Co-organisation of one-day workshop on Kenya's 2013 elections (Nairobi, Kenya) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This one-day workshop on Kenya's 2013 elections was co-organised by Dr Lynch (University of Warwick), Dr Cheeseman (University of Oxford), Prof. Willis (University of Durham), and Prof. Kanyinga (University of Nairobi), and brought together scholars from Kenya, Europe, and North America to discuss the recently concluded Kenyan elections including the impact of transitional justice mechanisms. The workshop was funded by an Africa Conflict Prevention Pool election monitoring grant with additional support from the British Institute in Eastern Africa. The workshop was attended by over 100 people including academics, journalists, civil society activists, and diplomats, and presentations sparked a range of questions and ongoing discussions. The workshop fed into a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies (2014) on Kenya's 2013 election, which was edited by Cheeseman, Lynch and Willis, which has been widely ready by academics, but also by policy-makers and practitioners.

This workshop resulted in the publication of a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies on Kenya's 2013 elections, which was published in January 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Democracy promotion through Westminster Foundation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dr Nic Cheeseman was approached by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD), a democracy promotion organization that receives funds from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK government to establish a research programme in the political economy of democracy promotion. The resulting project, co-funded by the WFD and Oxford University, is the "Political Economic of Democracy Promotion: Knowledge Exchange Project", which will produce policy-relevant outputs that will be used to inform WFD programming and shared with the democracy assistance community more broadly. As part of the project, the WFD will sponsor a post-doctoral fellowship at the University of Oxford, to work under Dr Cheeseman's supervision. Dr Cheeseman will sit on the project's steering group and will also become a Consultant for Policy Advice to the WFD. The project will run from early 2016-2019.

Creation of fellowship and research programme
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Design of long-term monitoring project for Nigerian elections 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dr Nic Cheeseman was hired as the lead consultant by the United Nations Development Programme in Nigeria to work with the UNDP to enable them to replicate the methodology of "deep election monitoring" that was used so successfully in Kenya. Like the Kenyan project, the Nigerian project was designed to recruit a team of Nigerian and UK researchers, this time to work in half (18) of the country's 36 states. In 2014, Dr Cheeseman was responsible for both designing the principles for the selection of states, and for drafting the Terms of Reference for the hiring of researchers. An example of the TOR is still available online: https://www.google.com.gh/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=undp%20political%20economy%20election%20nigeria%2018%20states

The project was designed.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Foreign and Commonwealth Office training day 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Cheeseman helped to organize and run a full day training session for the Africa Directorate of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office of the UK government at Cambridge University. The day was intended to help the Foreign Office to identify new trends and to conduct 'blue skies thinking'. As part of this, Cheeseman also delivered a talk entitled 'What makes democracy work in Africa'?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Land on Kenya coast: interview with journalist 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Justin Willis gave an extensive interview to a journalist working for the Institute of War and Peace Reporting, which was cited several times in a consequent online piece.

None that we are aware of
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL https://iwpr.net/global-voices/law-not-enough-unravel-kenyan-land-disputes
 
Description Participation in workshop on devolution in Kenya 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Justin Willis took part on a workshop on devolution in Kenya, organized by the European Peacebuilding Liaison Organization in Brussels. The event is part of a series on 'Strengthening early warning and mobilising early action', intended to inform and engage with EU policymakers, and it involved a number of staff from the EU External Action Service, as well as the Belgian military.

There was discussion about how to support devolution in ways which reduced the likelihhod violent conflict; it is too early as yet to say whether that discussion will have any effect.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.eplo.org/strengthening-early-warning-and-mobilising-early-action.html
 
Description Presentation and discussion of first set of knowledge exchange project reports (British High Commission, Nairobi, Kenya, January 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi. The presentations sparked questions and discussion, which helped inform UK policies, but also fed into ongoing discussions in the approach of Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) The Kenyatta election: Final report of the early warning and long-term monitoring project on Kenya's 2013 general elections; 2) The 2013 elections and their aftermath; 3) LAPPSET; 4) Turkana; and 5) Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission.

Representatives from the FCO and DfID reported that the reports and presentation had improved their understanding of political developments and challenges in Kenya, and that recommendations would help inform and shape their programmes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation and discussion of first set of knowledge exchange project reports (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, January 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi sparked questions and discussion. These discussions helped inform UK policy but also fed into ongoing discussions between the project team and the UK government in the lead up to Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) The Kenyatta election: Final report of the early warning and long-term monitoring project on Kenya's 2013 general elections; 2) The 2013 elections and their aftermath; 3) LAPPSET; 4) Turkana; and 5) Kenya's Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission.

Representatives from the FCO and DfID reported that the reports and presentation had improved their understanding of political developments and challenges in Kenya, and that recommendations would help inform and shape their programmes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation and discussion of second set of knowledge exchange project reports (British High Commission, Nairobi, Kenya, July 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi, which sparked questions and discussion. These discussions helped inform UK policy, and also fed into ongoing discussions between the project team and the UK government in the lead up to Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) Devolution one year in; and 2) Kenya Security Sector

After our presentations, the British High Commissioner asked us to produce a scenario document to help inform internal decision making by the British Government in Kenya.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation and discussion of second set of knowledge exchange project reports (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, July 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi, which sparked questions and discussion. These discussions helped inform UK policy but also fed into ongoing discussions between the project team and the UK government in the lead up to Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) Devolution one year in; and 2) Kenya Security Sector.

Representatives from the FCO and DfID reported that the reports and presentation had improved their understanding of political developments and challenges in Kenya, and that recommendations would help inform and shape their programmes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation and discussion of third set of knowledge exchange project reports (British High Commission, Nairobi, Kenya, September 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi. The presentations sparked questions and discussion, which helped inform UK policies, and fed into ongoing discussions in the approach of Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) Kenya elections 2013: Summary, lessons learned, and action points for 2017; and 2) Devolution and Opinion poll update.

Representatives from the FCO and DfID reported that the reports and presentation had improved their understanding of political developments and challenges in Kenya, and that recommendations would help inform and shape their programmes. More specifically, the "Kenya elections 2013: Summary, lessons learned, and action points for 2017" document has been taken up by FCO and DfID in their planning for 2017.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation and discussion of third set of knowledge exchange project reports (Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London, October 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Lynch, Cheeseman and Willis presented reports to representatives from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) and Department for International Development (DfID) at the British High Commission in Nairobi. This sparked questions and discussion, which helped inform UK policy and fed into ongoing discussions between the project team and the UK government in the lead up to Kenya's 2017 election. Reports presented were entitled: 1) Kenya elections 2013: Summary, lessons learned, and action points for 2017; and 2) Devolution and Opinion poll update.

Representatives from the FCO and DfID reported that the reports and presentation had improved their understanding of political developments and challenges in Kenya, and that recommendations would help inform and shape their programmes. More specifically, the "Kenya elections 2013: Summary, lessons learned, and action points for 2017" document has been taken up by FCO and DfID in their planning for 2017.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation at 'Observatoire de la Corne d'Afrique' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Justin Willis gave a talk in the course of a one-day event at the Ecole Militaire, Paris, on violence at the Kenya coast, reflecting the contents of a working paper jointly produced with Hassan Mwakimako which drew in part on research undertaken as part of this ESRC project. The audience was largely composed of French security and diplomatic staff. The presentation led to substantial discussion.
The

None of which we are directly aware; it has presumably fed into French planning and policy-making, but we do not know how.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.defense.gouv.fr/content/download/321315/4387344/file/Pogramme_la_corne_afrique_2014_11_24...
 
Description Presentation on panel on 'Islamism in Africa' 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Justin Willis made a presentation on Islamism on the Kenya coast, drawing in part on the ESRC research. The panel stimulated substantial discussion and debate; Professor Willis spoke separately after the panel with staff from the Ministry of Defence and Tullow Oil.

We are not aware of direct policy impact from this particular talk.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/islamism-horn-africa
 
Description Presentation to Africa Expertise programme, FCO 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dr Cheeseman, gave a lecture to the Africa Expertise Programme of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 1 July 2015, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, London. Dr Cheeseman set out the main findings of his book, Democracy in Africa, and how to increase the prospects of peaceful elections. The audience included the Director of the Foreign Office African Research Team and the United Kingdom High Commissioner to Senegal.

Discussion of policy on democracy
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Public discussion on electoral technologies at Nairobi Museum, October 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact As part of a 'Voting matters' conference, Willis and two French colleagues organised a public panel discussion on electoral technologies at Nairobi Museum. The event was chaired by Willis, and the panel included staff from Kenya's Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, civil society activists and international experts in election support. It was as a result of this event that Willis and other members of the team were asked to meet with the Donor Election Group in Nairobi in January 2016; the event also led to the publication of a short discussion piece by one of the participants, http://www.idea.int/africa/technology-or-credibility-what-comes-first.cfm.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.idea.int/africa/technology-or-credibility-what-comes-first.cfm
 
Description Report to be submitted on devolution and its impact on security (National Intelligence Council of the United States government, November 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This report was submitted in November 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Royal African Society panel 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Justin Willis took part in a panel discussion on Kenya's elections organized by the Royal African Society, and held at SOAS in London. There was a very lively question and answer session after the panel.

There was some media coverage: see for example http://www.demotix.com/news/1908737/panel-discussion-soas-addresses-recent-kenya-election#media-1911239
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.royalafricansociety.org/event/kenya-2013-%E2%80%93-successful-election
 
Description Talk at UK/US Closed Planning Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Nic Cheeseman, Invited speaker, "Closed Planning Workshop", 3-4 June 2015, Oxford, UK: meeting to identify long-term trends of interest to the UK and US governments in Africa to guide the work of the Strategic Futures Group (SFG) of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), part of the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence & the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence Development, Concepts, and Doctrine Centre. Prepared and delivered a paper on the impact of term-limits on African democracy and the prospects for political stability and peaceful elections. Participants included the Director of the Foreign Office African Research Team, the Director of the Development Concepts and Doctrine Centre of the UK Ministry of Finance, and the Director of the Strategic Futures Group of the NIC.

Discussion of future policy
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description US/UK Government Global Trends Report for Africa 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Cheeseman was commissioned to write and present a report on key trends in African politics including elections for the National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the US government and the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD). The report and presentation fed into NIC's Global Trends Report and the MoDs trend analysis through the Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre or DCDC. A key outcome was that the significance of presidential term limits, and crises around them, was placed higher on senior policy makers agendas.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015