Explaining and Sustaining the Decline in Stranger, Acquaintance and Domestic Violence

Violent incidents make up nearly a quarter of crimes recorded in the Crime Survey for England and Wales. The effects are not just those of emotional and physical harm to the individual victim but spread much wider in terms of the impact on healthcare, cost to the criminal justice system, lost working hours, and a societal fear of crime. Unlike acquisitive crimes the motive (and therefore appropriate preventive mechanisms) is arguably less apparent. As such, it is important to identify those changes in personal security and routine activities which can be associated with trends in violence. No systematic research studies have been undertaken to assess the protective impact of these factors in relation to acquaintance and stranger violence, examined separately, to date. The research proposed is precisely concerned with such an assessment. The primary research question is:

What is the role of population group- and context- specific changes in personal security and routine activities in explaining the decline in stranger and acquaintance violence?

This study will identify the personal security and routine activities measures that offer effective protection from violence and repeat violence to (a) the population overall; (b) specific population subgroups according to their socio-economic attributes; (c) the residents of different areas; and (d) area types and population subgroups plausible combinations in England and Wales and internationally over time.

The urgency to gain insights about violence prevention cannot be exaggerated: at a time of massive public spending cuts and increasing austerity measures, the cost of violence to the UK economy is estimated at £13 billion annually (National Audit Office 2008).

The proposed research will:
- Make a major scientific contribution with immediate and high societal and economic impact. Its theoretical and methodological advancements will inform future research developments in criminology. The current gap in knowledge impedes violence reduction opportunities not just in the UK but across the world.
- Engage throughout with high level research users in the public sector and civil society organisations and inform national and international guidelines on violence prevention.
- Analyse two decades of formidable existing data sources, the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS), both in the public domain, to allow creative and imaginative application and data linking via comparative work. The CSEW is a large and complex dataset with currently some 40,000 respondents annually. The ICVS is a unique comparative crime data partly funded and organised by the Home Office. Yet relative to both data generation cost and their impeccable quality, they have been extremely under-explored.
- Employ innovative research methodology and application in criminology. This includes the Security Impact Assessment Tool and multivariate multilevel logit modelling, pioneered by the co-applicants with ESRC support for assessing the effectiveness of burglary and car security devices and examining the effect of context on the relation between burglary risk and security, respectively; multilevel negative binomial modelling, pioneered by the P-I with American Statistical Association and Home Office support for investigating the effect of context on single and repeat victimisation patterns; and hurdle models which show whether repeat victims differ from others.
- Engage non-academic partners, the national charity Victim Support and the Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership, to triangulate findings, access further data, and ensure direct applicability of findings to victims of violent crime.
- Benefit from collaboration with International Co- Investigators.

Therefore the proposed research fits the ESRC-SDAI Phase 2 call specification. The co-applicants' theoretical, methodological and policy contribution to date ensure its successful delivery.

Violent crime has far reaching social and economic costs - to individuals, local communities, and society in general. This research has been designed to inform future policy guidelines in ways that could lead to considerable financial savings and produce direct benefits to the following groups:
- Victims and repeat victims of violent crime, by informing them of how best to reduce their future risks
- All adults, by informing them of effective personal security measures and violence avoidance behavioural adaptations
- Victim Support as a national charity, by improving their evidence base and analysing their data to enable them to provide a more effective and cost efficient service
- Nottingham Crime and Drugs Partnership in particular and Crime Reduction Partnerships in general, working more effectively and efficiently to discharge their responsibilities
- Businesses which are affected either directly or indirectly by violent crimes, by informing them how best to contribute to reduction of risks and thus improve security for their staff and customers, and by enabling victims to return to work sooner, respectively.
- The insurance industry, by enabling them to offer incentives for individuals who actively seek to reduce their risk of violence by taking effective security measures
- The security industry, by enabling them to improve products of personal security and better target them according to clients' socio-economic and area profiles
- Public information by suggesting improvements to the personal security questions of the Crime Prevention Module of the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) and the International Crime Victims Survey and to the routine activities questions of both surveys; and
- Public policy by informing on violence reduction in private and public spheres

In an indirect way the proposed research will also benefit:
- The police, by reducing workloads (and thus costs) through reduced violent crimes and by enabling more informed advice to be given to victims and the wider community
- The NHS, by reducing the pressure from violent crime on accident and emergency services
- The society at large, by reducing violence and its impact;
- The economy, via increased productivity (reducing work days lost as a result of violence)

Public engagement for the duration of the proposed research has been planned to maximise its impact to all research users groups (see Pathways to Impact). In addition the Project Partners will be actively involved in the development and dissemination of the research throughout its duration via their in-kind support in data provision, research planning, interpretation of findings with respect to their policy implications and writing up draft policy outputs (see Letters of Support, Pathways to Impact, Case for Support and Project Partners).

As seen in their respective CVs members of the research team already enjoy close contacts with and serve in bodies responsible for crime measurement and prevention. They are thus accustomed to communicating findings to non-specialists in ways that draw out their policy and practice significance. Past work has already had a substantial impact. Farrell's work on repeat victimisation has found its way into routine policy and practice. Grove's recent work on heritage crime has received substantial media coverage. Tseloni's work has played a pivotal part in official reports of crime statistics and patterns. Tilley wrote the original guidance for analysis for the Crime and Disorder Act (Hough and Tilley 1998) and his work on problem-oriented policing and partnership has had a substantial impact on the work of local police services and partnerships. The findings of the team's past ESRC-funded work (ES/F015186/1) have received substantial media coverage and informed Home Office publications on crime trends. Their current ESRC- funded work (ES/K003771/1) is presently informing burglary target hardening policy interventions in Nottingham.