Working towards a stable and sustainable growth path

Lead Research Organisation: London School of Economics & Pol Sci
Department Name: Economics

Abstract

Abstracts are not currently available in GtR for all funded research. This is normally because the abstract was not required at the time of proposal submission, but may be because it included sensitive information such as personal details.

Organisations

Publications

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Aikman D (2015) Reputation, risk-taking, and macroprudential policy in Journal of Banking & Finance

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Aikman D (2015) Curbing the Credit Cycle in The Economic Journal

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ALESSANDRI P (2015) Simple Banking: Profitability and the Yield Curve MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

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Alex Haberis And Andrej Sokol A procedure for combining zero and sign restrictions in a VAR-identification scheme in CFM Discussion Paper series

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Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi (2016) Finance and Synchronization

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Andre Diniz And Bernardo Guimaraes Financial disruption as a cost of sovereign default: a quantitative assessment in CFM Discussion Paper Series

 
Description A lot of researchers and activities are associated with this grant. It is, therefore, difficult to report without overwhelming you. Below we focus on some ground breaking achievements. More details on CFM research and other CFM activities and contributions can be found in a report containing background information. This is available at http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/cfmadditionalinformation.pdf .

Fiscal policy and its impact on the economy by Karel Mertens (Cornell) and Morten Ravn (UCL)
The first achievement we want to highlight is the paper 'The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States,' by Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn published in the American Economic Review, a top five economic journal. This paper deals with one of the key questions in macroeconomics, namely the impact of fiscal policy on the business cycle. It also deals with possibly the most challenging methodological problem in empirical macroeconomics, namely the endogeneity issue. The problem is the following. We would like to understand what the effect is of fiscal policy on economic activity. The problem is that fiscal policy responds to factors in the economy (for example, an oil crisis), which also has a direct effect on subsequent economic activity. To disentangle the direct effect from the effect due to fiscal policy, Karel Mertens and Morten Ravn use standard statistical techniques in combination with a narrative approach, which makes it possible to reveal which changes in fiscal policy were due to responses in macroeconomic circumstances and which were not. Joris de Wind from the Netherland Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis has already adopted this approach and extended it to allow for time-varying responses.

Productivity Loss in the Great Stagnation by Rebecca Riley (NIESR), Chiara Rosazza Boundibene (NIESR) and Gary Young (Bank of England)
Why financial crises lead to a permanent loss of output is not well understood. The paper 'Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British Businesses' by Rebecca Riley, Chiara Rosazza Boundibene, and Gary Young puts out the hypothesis that a banking crisis reduces the efficiency of resource allocation across businesses. This hinders a key mechanism by which productivity growth arises. Yet despite the popularity of this explanation, there is little empirical evidence that these distortions add to the severity of recessions and weaken the productive potential of the economy. This paper investigates inefficiencies in resource allocation further to explain the weakness of productivity growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. In particular, it shows how the weakness of productivity growth in the UK following the financial crisis can be accounted for by shifts in the distribution of firm-level productivity and changes in the composition of the business population.

A new approach to capture disequilibrium by Pascal Michaillat (LSE) and Emmanuel Saez (UC Berkeley)
In the paper 'Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, together with Emmanuel Saez, has developed a new framework to study business cycles. The framework builds on ideas from disequilibrium models of the 70s in which disequilibrium in the goods market and disequilibrium in the labour market interacted in a way to generate a rich pattern of observations. The earlier framework was discarded because it was cumbersome and had some problematic assumptions. Nevertheless, with the disappearance of this framework from macroeconomic debates we lost some mechanisms that are not present in the set of models that it was replaced by. The framework of Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez overcome the problems of the earlier framework by using insights from modern matching theories without giving up the key interactions between the different markets. Moreover, their framework is remarkably simple and could very well become a key tool to teach business cycles to many generations of students at different levels. This paper is forthcoming in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, a top five economic journal.

Deflationary spirals by Wouter Den Haan (LSE), Pontus Rendahl (Cambridge), and Markus Riegler (Univ. of Bonn)
A related contribution is a large computational project carried out by Wouter Den Haan, Pontus Rendahl, and Markus Riegler. The results are described in the paper 'Unemployment (fears) and Deflationary Spirals. These authors have developed a model with heterogeneous agents in which agents can only partially insure themselves against unemployment spells. Several computational challenges had to be met to get the framework running. Preliminary results indicate that frictions in the labour market combined frictions in financial markets and nominal sticky wages can substantially deepen recessions. Different from the Michaillat-Saez framework is that the DenHaan-Rendahl-Riegler approach not only introduces matching frictions, but also explicitly models the behaviour of individual agents in the economy. Frictions in financial markets limit the ability of agents to ensure themselves against bad outcomes. This induces an increase in precautionary savings (especially in liquid and non-risky form) during bad times. The increase in savings corresponds to a decrease in consumption (aggregate demand). The reduction in the demand for consumption leads to downward pressure on prices, which in the presence of sticky nominal wages leads to reduction in the real value of profits. This leads to a reduction in the demand for labour, which in turn generates a further increase in precautionary savings.

Housing market by Rachel Ngai (LSE) and Silvana Tenreyro (LSE). In the paper 'Hot and Cold Seasons in the Housing Market,' published in the American Economic Review, Rachel Ngai and Silvana Tenreyro show that the matching framework developed by CFM Chairman and Nobel Laureate Christopher Pissarides (together with Douglas Diamond and Dale Mortensen) can also be understood to understand why there are such large seasonal fluctuations in house prices. If house prices are substantially more expensive during particular seasons and if this is fully predictable, then the question is why buyers do not buy during the season when prices are cheaper. The explanation bought forward by the authors is that during the 'high price' season buyers do get something in return for their higher price, namely typically a better match for their personal demands, since during the high price season the volume is higher, which makes it easier for the buyer to get the features it is looking for. So although the price may seem expensive taking into account objective features, the price does not look (too) high for a buyer who has found the house with the desired features.

Networks and macroeconomics by David Baquee (LSE) and Vasco Carvalho (Cambridge). Trade is a central and vital element of any market economy. The simplest approach is to assume that there are no frictions and that transaction partners can find each other without incurring any costs. For example, to describe the market mechanism of competitive markets, economists use a fictitious agent, the Walrasian auctioneer, who collects information and then calculates the price at which demand equals supply. This approach is popular, even though Walrasian auctioneers do - of course - not exist. Behind this approach is faith in an 'invisible hand' which will ensure that actual market outcomes will correspond to the theoretical construction of frictionless markets. Other approaches, explicitly incorporate frictions that economic agents face in finding transaction partners. In fact, the last three research highlights are about models in which 'matching' frictions are present in at least one key market. But the matching frictions are captured in a reduced-form manner. Moreover, the matching market is still a theoretical construction, which ignores key aspects of reality such as supply chains, the economy's input-output structure, and the geographical location of transaction partners. The idea of network theory is to incorporate into models the actual network through which individuals and firms do transactions. In such models, buyers (sellers) do not have free access to all sellers (buyers) in the economy, but rely on a select number of (nearby) trading partners.
CFM members David Baquee (LSE) and Vasco Carvalho (Cambridge) have incorporated network theory into macroeconomics models. In his paper 'Labor Intensity in an Interconnected Economy, David Baquee constructs network-adjusted labour intensity to characterize how much labour an industry uses. This measure does not only include the direct labour input of this sector, but also the labour inputs of the sectors that deliver to this sector. With this approach, it is possible to determine how fiscal stimulus directed at different sectors affect aggregate employment differently taking into account all the indirect effects that occur because of the trades that occur between sectors.
In the paper 'Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations,' published in Econometrica, Vasco Carvalho (joint with Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi) develops a theoretical structure to address the question how shocks that hit individual sectors can affect the aggregate economy taking into account the economy's network structure. In the paper 'From Micro to Macro via Production Networks', Vasco Carvalho describes in an intuitive manner the importance and potential of this new exciting research approach.

Corporate Investment, Financing Constraints, and House Prices by Saleem Bahaj (Bank of England), Angus Foulis (Bank of England), and Gabor Pinter (Bank of England). The recent financial crisis has underlined the importance of house price fluctuations and frictions in financial intermediation. The financial crisis started out with severe drops in house prices, but the turmoil spread to financial markets such as money markets and the commercial paper markets. If financial markets do not function well, then this will restrict the ability of firms to finance ongoing operations and new investment. Empirical studies using micro-level data are essential to understand these distortions in financial markets. In the paper 'Collateral Channels,' Saleem Bahaj, Angus Foulis, and Gabor Pinter study the importance of regional house prices on corporate investment for firms in that region. The paper relies on a unique combination of UK datasets including firm-level accounting data matched (covering virtually the UK corporate sector) with loan- level residential mortgage data and transaction-level house price data. They show that a £1 increase in house prices increases corporate investment with £0.04. This is a notable study for several reasons. First, it is remarkable that a link can be made between price developments in residential real estate and regional firm activities. Second, the detailed data set makes it possible to distinguish the different channels through which higher house prices can lead to more firm activity. The authors show that most of the effect is due to a direct collateral channel, that is changes in the value of residential affect lending because it affect the value of the collateral used to secure the loan.
Exploitation Route The research done by the CFM researchers can be used by others in the following ways.
1. Several of the research consisted of developing new methodologies. An important example is the development of computer algorithm to solve modern macroeconomic models. Another example, is the development of new theoretical frameworks such as the network frameworks developed by David Baqaee and Vasco Carvalho.
2. The CFM focuses on policy relevant research. A lot of the research is useful for policy makers and there is a lot of interaction between the university branches of the CFM with its policy branch (the Bank of England) and its policy-analysis branch (NIESR) as well as with policy makers outside the CFM.
Sectors Creative Economy,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice,Other

URL http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/cfmadditionalinformation.pdf
 
Description The CFM is involved in many activities. More information can be found at 1. Our online document with background information available at http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/cfmadditionalinformation.pdf 2. The website where we make teaching material available: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.org 3. Our main website: http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx Below we discuss some of the ways we have achieved impact on non-academic audiences. CFM Survey One of the more notable findings for this reporting period is the impact of the monthly CFM survey which informs the public about views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Responses from this survey have been used by media houses to inform the general public, to substantiate policy positions and to provide a platform for discussion of topical economic issues. The results of the CFM monthly survey have been referenced on numerous occasions in The Times, The Independent, Wall Street Journal etc. and have been discussed on social media outlets such as twitter. CFM Teaching Material Many professors develop marvellous teaching material. Often access is limited, because the material is posted on university systems to which outsiders have no access or because the availability and/or content of this material is unknown. The CFM has created a completely new website, http://www.centreformacroeconomics.org, to collect teaching material and software that is useful for students. At this point, the website only provides material for graduate-level courses, but we plan to collect material relevant for undergraduate students in the future. CFM-LSE Summer School The CFM sponsors two one-week Macroeconomics Summer Courses taught at the LSE. The first week course is taught by CFM member professor Wouter Den Haan and Dr. Petr Sedlacek of the University of Bonn. The second week course is taught by CFM members Wouter Den Haan and Dr. Pontus Rendahl. These courses are taken by PhD students from across the world, researchers at policy institutions, and some university academics. Students attend a three-hour lecture in the morning. In the afternoon, they work in groups to complete especially designed computer assignment that use the tools taught in the morning. The lecturers and a group of teaching assistants are available to help them with these assignments. These courses have been a big success and have filled up to full capacity of 60 students per course each year. Student evaluations are very favourable. For example, in 2014, all students gave an overall course ranking of very good or good. In 2015, these numbers were 98% and 97%. Other CFM activities There is a wide range of other activities organized by the CFM and its members that go beyond the standard provision of teaching and supervising. These activities are undertaken to nurture the development of young academics. For example, Shengzing Zhang (LSE) has been organizing a weekly reading group in which PhD discuss new and classic papers. At UCL a similar reading group is held every week for PhD students and young faculty. The LSE branch also organizes informal meetings in which students and faculty discuss current events (such as the Eurozone crisis) and the different ways one can approach economic research questions. These debates have benefitted a lot from the presence of Lord Mervyn King, former governor of the Bank of England, and Sir Charles Bean, former deputy-governor of the Bank of England, who joined the LSE and the CFM when they left the Bank of England. All three universities have organized small scale conferences where we invite stars in the field to attend and ask our young faculty to present. One example is the 2014 CFM conference in honour of Robert Barro. Professor Barro was so impressed by the presentation of Pascal Michaillat the he ask Pascal to submit his paper to the Journal of Quarterly Economics, a top-5 economics journal. CFM Public Lecture Series The CFM frequently organizes public lectures given by a variety of speakers, including academic economists, policy makers, popular authors, and journalists. These lectures attract a wide range of attendees, including secondary school students, students from institutions that are part of the CFM as well as students from other universities, journalists, civil servants, and members of the general public. In terms of topics, these public lectures have covered many aspects of macroeconomics, including the financial crisis, poverty and economic development, monetary policy, regulation of financial markets, and the morality of markets
First Year Of Impact 2014
Sector Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail,Other
Impact Types Societal,Economic

 
Description Christopher Pissarides, Economic advisor of the President of Cyprus
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Sir Chris Pissarides became an economic advisor to the President of Cyprus
 
Description Francesco Caselli assisted the World Bank on local governance policies and research on productivity growth
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Francesco Caselli has assisted the World Bank to deal with local governance policies and with their research on productivity growth
 
Description Giancarlo Corsetti, Michael McMahon, Wouter DenHaan and Ricardo Reis are consultants of the Bank of England.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
Impact Giancarlo Corsetti, Michael McMahon, Wouter DenHaan and Ricardo Reis are consultants of the Bank of England.
 
Description Gianluca Benigno - visiting economist at the European Central Bank
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Gianluca Benigno gave training courses at the Hungarian National Bank.
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Gianluca Benigno gave training courses for staff at the Bank of Japan
Geographic Reach Asia 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
 
Description Keyu Jin was a visiting fellow at the Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance, which is associated with the Banca D'Italia, Italy's central bank
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Minutes of the Bank of Mauritius July 2014 Silvana Tenreyro
Geographic Reach Australia 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact International and Domestic Economic Development since the last meeting of April 2014
URL https://www.bom.mu/pdf/Monetary_Policy/meetings/MoM_20140728.pdf
 
Description Morten O. Ravn is Deputy Chairman of the Danish National Research Foundation.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Morten O. Ravn is Deputy Chairman of the Danish National Research Foundation.
 
Description Morten O. Ravn is an occasional consultant of the Danish Central Bank
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Press release from the Bank of Mauritius
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in advisory committee
Impact BANK OF MAURITIUS Website: https://www.bom.mu COMMUNIQUÉ MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Further to the amendments brought to section 54(1) of the Bank of Mauritius Act 2004 in December 2012 relating to the composition of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the MPC has been reconstituted - Press release on the reconstitution of the Bank of Mauritius MPC Committee
 
Description Ricardo Reis was a Senior George Fellow at the Bank of England
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Ricardo Reis was a Senior George Fellow at the Bank of England
 
Description Roman Sustek is an occasional consultant of the St' Louis Fed
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
 
Description Sir Charles Bean became a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee (as of January 2017).
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Sir Charles Bean became a member of the Budget Responsibility Committee (as of January 2017).
 
Description Sir Charles Bean has written a review of UK economic statistics for the Chancellor of the Exchequer
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Sir Charles Bean has written a review of UK economic statistics for the Chancellor of the Exchequer
 
Description Wouter den Haan and Ricardo Reis participate in the 'regular visitor programme' of the European Central Bank
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Wouter den Haan has served as a consultant of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a national consultation
Impact Wouter den Haan has served as a consultant of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
 
Description A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union (ADEMU) - Morten Ravn, Horizon 2020
Amount € 2,500,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 649396 
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start  
 
Description BA/Leverhulme Small Grants Award - David Baqaee
Amount £9,500 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Banque de France
Amount € 20,000 (EUR)
Organisation Bank of France 
Start 06/2013 
End 06/2013
 
Description Conference: International Trade, Finance, and Macroeconomics: Research Frontiers and Challenges for Policy
Amount £16,100 (GBP)
Organisation Bank of England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2014 
End 12/2014
 
Description ERC Consolidator Grant - Savings and Risks Over the Lifecycle: Theory and Evidence
Amount € 1,220,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 614328 
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start  
 
Description ESRC Cross Centre Grant
Amount £1 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description ESRC Senior Fellowship
Amount £240,000 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description ESRC cross centre Grant - Links between Macro and Micro Modelling of Economic Policy
Amount £250,000 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description EU Membership and free movement of labour, Jonathan Portes - ESRC Senior Fellowshiip
Amount £200,000 (GBP)
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description EU membership and the British Dilemma Advanced Investigators Award - Angus Armstrong
Amount £200,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/N015584/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description European Research Council Advanced Grant
Amount € 2,116,117 (EUR)
Organisation European Research Council (ERC) 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 05/2014 
End 04/2019
 
Description Horizon 2020, A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union - Morten Ravn
Amount € 2,500,000 (EUR)
Funding ID 649396 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 06/2015 
End 06/2018
 
Description Leverhulme Trust - Silvana Tenreyro
Amount £65,000 (GBP)
Funding ID SF140036 
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2015 
End 09/2016
 
Description Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Inequality - Pascal Michaillat
Amount £237,000 (GBP)
Funding ID ES/K008641/1 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2013 
End 09/2016
 
Description Macroeconomic Policy Over The Business Cycle - Pascal Michaillat
Amount £75,519 (GBP)
Funding ID INO14-00018 
Organisation Institute For New Economic Thinking 
Sector Charity/Non Profit
Country United States
Start 01/2014 
End 12/2015
 
Description Mid Career Fellowship - Housing Market Dynamics
Amount £134,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and the Liquidity of the Financial Market
Amount £9,748 (GBP)
Funding ID SG151885 
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 04/2016 
End 09/2017
 
Description Monetary Policy, Asset Prices and the Liquidity of the Financial Market, Shengxing Zhang
Amount £10,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 11/2016 
End 10/2017
 
Description New perspectives on Inflation (INFL)
Amount £1,360,928 (GBP)
Funding ID GA: 682288 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 07/2016 
End 06/2021
 
Description RES Visiting Lecturer Scheme
Amount £2,000 (GBP)
Organisation Royal Economic Society 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2013 
End 12/2015
 
Description Redistributive Effects of Monetary Policy - Silvana Tenreyro BA/Leverhulme
Amount £260,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Research on Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Trade (MACROTRADE)
Amount £986,798 (GBP)
Funding ID GA: 681664 
Organisation European Commission 
Sector Public
Country European Union (EU)
Start 10/2016 
End 09/2021
 
Description S C Tsiang Scholarship
Amount £3,000 (GBP)
Organisation London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London) 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 10/2015 
End 07/2016
 
Description The Twin Traps: Stagnation and Liquidity Trap - Mid Career Fellowship, Gianluca Benigno
Amount £131,000 (GBP)
Organisation The British Academy 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start  
 
Description Understanding Low Growth Macroeconomics Conference
Amount £20,000 (GBP)
Organisation Bank of England 
Sector Public
Country United Kingdom
Start 12/2013 
End 12/2013
 
Title CFM Teaching Material Website 
Description Many professors develop marvellous teaching material. Often access is limited, because the material is posted on university systems to which outsiders have no access or because the availability and/or content of this material is unknown. The CFM has created a completely new website, http://www.centreformacroeconomics.org, to collect teaching material and software that is useful for students. At this point, the website only provides material for graduate - level courses, but we plan to collect material relevant for undergraduate students in the future. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2015 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact students and academics have lauded the site, They find it useful to have a collection of different teaching material and software at one location http://www.centreformacroeconomics.org 
URL http://www.centreformacroeconomics.org
 
Title New richer framework for monetary analysis and design 
Description Giancarlo Corsetti and co-authors who developed a , new richer framework for monetary analysis and design encompassing the trade-offs between output gaps and misalignment in asset prices and/or imbalances in saving and borrowing, also expressed in terms of possibly quantifiable gaps. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? Yes  
Impact New richer framework for monetary analysis and design 
 
Description A Vintage Model of Growth 
Organisation Yale University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Aleh Tsyvinki of Yale University
Start Year 2013
 
Description A dynamic multiregional overlapping generations computable general equilibrium model for the study of population ageing in the UK 
Organisation University of Ottawa
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Prof. Marcel Merette of the University of Ottawa
Start Year 2012
 
Description Austerity, Default and Optimal Fiscal Policy - morten Ravn 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Development of working papers and publications
Collaborator Contribution Development of working papers and publications
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description Cars in the Great Recession - Morten Ravn 
Organisation Ca' Foscari University of Venice
Country Italy 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Complimentary research into Cars in the Great Recession which resulted in presentations/papers, Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Collaborator Contribution Complimentary research into Cars in the Great Recession which resulted in presentations/papers, Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with Andrea Tesei, Queen Mary 
Organisation Queen Mary University of London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Andrea Tesei, Queen Mary
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with Christian Siegel - University of Exeter 
Organisation University of Exeter
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Christian Siegel - University of Exeter
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with Dominic Rohner - Lausanne 
Organisation University of Lausanne
Country Switzerland 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Dominic Rohner - Lausanne
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with John Coleman Duke University: The Fuqua School of Business 
Organisation Duke University Medical Centre
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with John Coleman Duke University: The Fuqua School of Business
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with Miklós Koren, Central European University 
Organisation Central European University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Miklós Koren, Central European University
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaboration with S. Ardagna - Goldman Sachs 
Organisation Goldman Sachs
Country United States 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution Collaboration with S. Ardagna - Goldman Sachs
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaborative visit to Allan Drazen, University of Maryland by Ethan Ilzetzki 
Organisation University of Maryland
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborative visit to Allan Drazen, University of Maryland by Ethan Ilzetzki
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaborative visit to Emmanuel Saez by Pascal Michaillat 
Organisation University of California, Berkeley
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborative visit to Emmanuel Saez by Pascal Michaillat
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaborative visit to George Akerlof 
Organisation University of California, Berkeley
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborative visit to George Akerlof by Pascal Michaillat
Start Year 2013
 
Description Collaborative visit to University of Frankfurt by Ethan Ilzetzki 
Organisation University of Frankfurt
Country Germany 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaborative visit to University of Frankfurt by Ethan Ilzetzki
Start Year 2013
 
Description Comparing Housing Booms and Mortgage Supply - Angus Armstrong 
Organisation Economic and Social Research Council
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Collaborative research into he comparison of Housing booms and mortgage supply
Collaborator Contribution Collaborative research into he comparison of Housing booms and mortgage supply
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2014
 
Description Consultant on Macroeconomics at the Bank of England 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Consultant on Macroeconomics at the Bank of England - Wouter Den Haan
Start Year 2013
 
Description Dawn Holland - Adviser to HM Treasury 
Organisation HM Treasury
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Dawn Holland - Adviser to HM Treasury
Start Year 2013
 
Description Developing methodology to forecast world trade 
Organisation Association of European Conjecture Organisations
Country Belgium 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Developing methodology to forecast world trade with the AIECE working group on world trade
Start Year 2013
 
Description Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis 
Organisation Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Country United States 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Visit by Roman Sustek to Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis
Start Year 2013
 
Description Firm Dynamics, Growth and Contractual Frictions 
Organisation University of Pennsylvania
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Ufuk Akcigit of the University of Penn.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Holland, D. and Kirby, S. -Editors of Economic Growth special edition of National Institute Economic Review 
Organisation National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)
Department National Institute Economic Review
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Holland, D. and Kirby, S. -Editors of Economic Growth special edition of National Institute Economic Review
Start Year 2013
 
Description Input Demand and Trade 
Organisation Centre for Research in Economics and Statistics (CREST)
Country France 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Claire Lelarge, CREST (Paris)
Start Year 2013
 
Description Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions - Morten Ravn 
Organisation University College London
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Ongoing research to result in working papers and publications
Collaborator Contribution Ongoing research to result in working papers and publications
Impact No impact yet
Start Year 2012
 
Description MIKLOS KOREN, CEU 
Organisation Central European University
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Collaboration with MIKLOS KOREN, CEU by Silvana Tenreyro
Start Year 2013
 
Description Member at Large - CEMFI 
Organisation Centre for Monetary and Financial Studies (CEMFI)
Country Spain 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Silvana Tenreyro - Member at large. Advice on journal, open access, future EEA conference at CEMFI
Start Year 2013
 
Description Michael McMahon - Research advice and work on the Monetary Transmission Team in Monetary Analysis 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Michael McMahon - Research advice and work on the Monetary Transmission Team in Monetary Analysis at the Bank Of England
Start Year 2013
 
Description Mortgages and monetary policy 
Organisation Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Country United States 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Collaboration with Carlor Garriga of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Start Year 2013
 
Description Office for National Statistics 
Organisation Office for National Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Office for National Statistics
Start Year 2013
 
Description Partnership with Massimo Morelli, Columbia University 
Organisation Columbia University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Partnership with Massimo Morelli, Columbia University
Start Year 2013
 
Description Pascal Michaillat Collaboration with Emmanuel Saez 
Organisation University of California, Berkeley
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Pascal Michaillat Collaboration with Emmanuel Saez of the University of California, Berkeley on macroeconomic research
Start Year 2013
 
Description Political Economy of Austerity 
Organisation University of Maryland
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Ethan Ilzetzki collaboration with Alan Drazen of the University of Maryland
Start Year 2013
 
Description Professor Marcel Merette of University of Ottawa 
Organisation University of Ottawa
Country Canada 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Professor Marcel Merette of University of Ottawa
Start Year 2013
 
Description Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom - Stephen Millard 
Organisation Cardiff University
Department Cardiff Business School
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Complimentary research into Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom
Collaborator Contribution Complimentary research into Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom
Impact Complimentary research into Sectoral shocks and monetary policy in the United Kingdom
Start Year 2011
 
Description Silvana Tenreyro - ASSOCIATE EDITOR JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION 
Organisation Journal of the European Economic Association
Country Global 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Silvana Tenreyro - ASSOCIATE EDITOR JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
Start Year 2013
 
Description Silvana Tenreyro - External MPC Member at the Central Bank of Mauritius 
Organisation Bank of Mauritius
Country Mauritius 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Silvana Tenreyro - External MPC Member at the Central Bank of Mauritius
Start Year 2013
 
Description Simon Kirby - Adviser to Australian High Commission 
Organisation Australian High Commission UK
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Simon Kirby - Adviser to Australian High Commission
Start Year 2013
 
Description Simon Kirby - Adviser to Malaysian High Commission 
Organisation Malaysian High Commission
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Simon Kirby - Adviser to Malaysian High Commission
Start Year 2013
 
Description The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: A general equilibrium approach - Stephen Millard 
Organisation Durham University
Department Durham University Business School
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Complimentary research into The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: A general equilibrium approach
Collaborator Contribution Complimentary research into The effect of the financial crisis on TFP growth: A general equilibrium approach
Impact Working papers, complimentary research
Start Year 2012
 
Description Training in macro-modelling for members of the Vietnamese Government 
Organisation Government of Vietnam
Country Viet Nam 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution Training in macro-modelling for members of the Vietnamese Government
Start Year 2013
 
Description Wouter DenHaan - Unemployment Fears, Precautionary Savings, and Aggregate Demand 
Organisation Institute For New Economic Thinking
Country United States 
Sector Charity/Non Profit 
PI Contribution Generation of data and models, analysis of data
Collaborator Contribution Generation of data and models, analysis of data
Impact Currently ongoing, production of research papers etc.
Start Year 2013
 
Description Markus Brunnermeier and Harold James lecture: The Euro and the Battle of Ideas 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Why is the Euro in trouble? A string of economic difficulties in Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, and other Eurozone nations has left observers wondering whether the currency union can survive. Markus Brunnermeier and Harold James argue that the core problem with the Euro lies in the philosophical differences between the founding countries of the Eurozone, and how these seemingly incompatible differences can be reconciled to ensure Europe's survival.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/pla...
 
Description (Mis)Allocation Effects of an Overpaid Public Sector - Various presentations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentations given by Tiago Cavalcanti at various locations, Sao Paulo, Konstanz, Illinois, Evora which sparked questions and discussions afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description 2014 Autumn Statement - CFM December 2014 Survey 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In the wake of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement on Wednesday, the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) has conducted its monthly survey of leading UK-based macroeconomists.
The responses indicate overwhelming disagreement with the view that the scale of the planned reduction in total managed government expenditure is realistic. They also indicate disagreement with the view that observed shortfalls in tax receipts make a strong case for higher tax rates.


The results of the survey was mentioned in the Financial Times http://blogs.ft.com/westminster/2014/12/how-osbornes-giveaways-were-overshadowed-by-gruesome-borrowing-figures/?Authorised=false; The Daily Mail http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2862572/British-winner-Nobel-Prize-economics-warns-George-Osborne-s-plans-shrink-State-smallest-80-years-not-credible.html; Pieria http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/the_chancellors_incredible_spending_cuts; The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/07/autumn-statement-five-things-we-learnt-about-economy; The Economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/12/britains-autumn-statement-1?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/dodging_the_debate and New Statesman http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/02/hard-choices-lie-ahead-heres-how-next-government-might-make-them
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014,2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/
 
Description 2014 China International Conference in Finance - Shengxing Zhang 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Discussant at 2014 China International Conference in Finance this discussion sparked questions and requests for more information

Increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description 2014 Vienna Macro Café - Shengxing Zhang 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Shengxing Zhang was a discussant at 2014 Vienna Macro Café this talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description 3rd OXFORD - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK Monetary Economics Conference - 28-29 September 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Conference related to all areas of monetary economics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://users.ox.ac.uk/~exet2581/OxNYFed-3rd-Programme.pdf
 
Description A "new" UK industrial strategy ? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/%E2%80%9Cnew%E2%80%9D-uk-industrial-strategy
 
Description A Budget that works for women 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact A conference on the impact of government economic policy on women and to look at policies that will encourage greater economic equality.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2017/03/20170301t0900v32L104/A-Budget-That-Works-For-Women
 
Description A Growth and Employment Agenda for Europe 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Estoril Conference: Global Challenges Local Answers, presentation given by Chris Pissarides which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation at CREI-DEE Research Seminar Series

Requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Lecture given at the Bank of Spain and various venues by Pascal Michaillat which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation made at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco by Pascal Michaillat which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Research Seminar presentation at University of California, Berkeley which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The Society for Economic Dynamics Meeting in Seoul, South Korea. The program was made up from a selection of invited and submitted papers. from any area in economics This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation at the NBER Summer Institute Conference in July 2013

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Model of Aggregate Demand and Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given at the Bank of Austria by Pascal Michaillat which sparked questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Positive Analysis of Tax Reform 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Ethan Ilzetzki at the University of Manchester on 22/10/2013 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Positive Analysis of Tax Reform 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Ethan Ilzetzki at the European Union Institute on 3/12/2013 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A Positive Analysis of Tax Reform - Ethan Ilzetzki 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by ethan Ilzetzki at the Goethe University Frankfurt which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom - Royal Holloway College 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Stephen Millard at Royal Holloway College which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Thijs van Rijns at CFCM, University of Nottingham

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Thijs van Rijns, keynote speaker at SIRE Young Researchers' Forum Edinburgh
25 October 2013. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Accounting for Mismatch Unemployment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Individual Seminar given at University of Exeter Business School by Thijs van Rijn which generated questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Adam Smith: what he thought, and why it matters - Jesse Norman MP 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Jesse Norman will discuss at this event, returns to intellectual first principles to recreate the lost centre of public debate. It offers a Smithian analysis of contemporary markets, predatory capitalism and the 2008 financial crash; it addresses crucial issues of inequality, human dignity and exploitation; and it provides a compelling explanation of why Smith is central to any attempt to defend and renew the market system.

Jesse Norman MP (@Jesse_Norman?) studied at Oxford, before completing a Masters and PhD in Philosophy at University College London. Before entering politics, he ran an educational project in Communist Eastern Europe and was a Director at Barclays. He has also been an Honorary Fellow at UCL, a Governor of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research, and a Visiting Fellow at All Souls College, Oxford. His previous books include a celebrated study of Edmund Burke. He currently serves as Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for the Department for Transport.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2018/07/20180709t1830vHKT/adam-smith
 
Description Adaptive forecasting in the presence of recent and ongoing structural change 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given at UWE, Bristol by Simon Price

increased requests for information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Aggregate Demand, the Labor Market and Macroeconomic Policy - Cambridge University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Wouter DenHaan which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Aggregate Fluctuations: Causes and Consequences 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Morten Ravn at Conference organized with Northwestern University in Sicily which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Aggregate demand, the labour market, and macroeconomic policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Pontus Rendahl, Organiser and presenter of paper which lead to more discussion and collaboration

Discussion and requests for more information and possible collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description An economical business-cycle model 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at Queen Mary University and bank of England which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description An economical business-cycle model 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at BANK OF ENGLAND AND CENTRE FOR MACROECONOMICS

CONFERENCE ON MACROECONOMICS, UNDERSTANDING LOW GROWTH. This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation by Raffaella Giacomini which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only for very short maturities. We argue that this is partly due to the ability of survey participants to incorporate information about the current state of the economy as well as forward-looking information such as that contained in monetary policy announcements. We show how the informational advantage of survey expectations about short yields can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible projection method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations in segments of the yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy for the whole yield curve, with improvements of up to 52% over the years 2000-2012 relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only for very short maturities. We argue that this is partly due to the ability of survey participants to incorporate information about the current state of the economy as well as forward-looking information such as that contained in monetary policy announcements. We show how the informational advantage of survey expectations about short yields can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible projection method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations in segments of the yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy for the whole yield curve, with improvements of up to 52% over the years 2000-2012 relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates. This generated questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Raffaella Giacomini which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only for very short maturities. We argue that this is partly due to the ability of survey participants to incorporate information about the current state of the economy as well as forward-looking information such as that contained in monetary policy announcements. We show how the informational advantage of survey expectations about short yields can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible projection method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations in segments of the yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy for the whole yield curve, with improvements of up to 52% over the years 2000-2012 relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Annual SED Conference - Toronto 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Wouter DenHaan which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Are academic economists 'in touch' with voters and politicians? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/are-academic-economists-%E2%80%98-touch%E2%80%99-voters-and-politicians
 
Description As house prices surge, can the Bank of England help the financial sector absorb the risks? - The Conversation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article in The Conversation on the CFM July Survey which generated interest, questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Attention in Economics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Ran Speigler in Copenhagen

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description BANK OF ENGLAND AND CENTRE FOR MACROECONOMICS Conference on Macroeconomics, UNDERSTANDING LOW GROWTH 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Bank of England, Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA),

Auditorium, 20 Moorgate, London EC2R 6DA

London, 9-10 December 2013
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description BBC Inflation Calculator 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact BBC Inflation Calculator by A Reuben

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22523612

Increased requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22523612
 
Description BBC Radio 4 - The World at One 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Wouter Den Haan contributed to the BBC Radio 4 - The World at One in which there was discussion on the next GDP figures in the UK, what GDP really is, how it is measured and why it matters. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Bank of England-CEPR monetary policy round table 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Bank of England-CEPR monetary policy round table, 17th December 2013 at the Bank of England. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Bank on It: a show about the financial system for five-year-olds 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Schools
Results and Impact Bank on It: a show about the financial system for five-year-olds

A new promenade piece from the Theatre-Rites starts with a broken ATM and an evasive bank-manager - then goes on to explain the vagaries of economics to kids

http://www.theguardian.com/stage/2013/jun/21/bank-on-it-financial-system-theatre

Resulted in many questions and new ideas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Bounded Rationality in Choice 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Ran Spiegler which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Brexit and financial market volatility 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/brexit-and-financial-market-volatility
 
Description Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/brexit-potential-financial-catastrophe-and-long-term-consequences-uk-fi...
 
Description CEPR Macroeconomics and Growth Programme Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Two day series of presentations and discussion on research and policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cepr.org/event/50000
 
Description CFM Public Discussion - The Future of Argentina: a conversation with Laura Alonso and Martín Lousteau 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CFM Public Discussion - The Future of Argentina: a conversation with Laura Alonso and Martín Lousteau

Sparked questions and discussion and requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description CFM Public Event - A World of Three Zeroes: the new economics of zero poverty, zero unemployment, and zero carbon emissions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The capitalist system, in its current form, is broken. In this lecture, Nobel Peace Prize-winning economist Dr Muhammad Yunus outlines his radical economic vision for fixing it, as explored in his new book A World of Three Zeroes?.

Muhammad Yunus (@Yunus_Centre?) is the economist who invented microcredit, founded Grameen Bank, and earned a Nobel Peace Prize for his work towards alleviating poverty. He was awarded an Honorary Degree of Doctor of Science (Economics) by LSE in November 2011.

Chair of the event - Minouche Shafik is Director of the London School of Economics and Political Science. Prior to this she was Deputy Governor of the Bank of England
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2017/11/20171110t1830vOT/A-World-of-Three-Zeroes
 
Description CFM Public Event - Economics for the Common Good 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact When Jean Tirole won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, he suddenly found himself being stopped in the street by complete strangers and asked to comment on issues of the day. His transformation from academic economist to public intellectual prompted him to reflect on the role economists and their discipline play in society. The result is Economics for the Common Good?, a passionate manifesto for a world in which economics is a positive force for the common good.

Jean Tirole, the winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, has been described as one of the most influential economists of our time. He is chairman of the Toulouse School of Economics and of the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse and a visiting professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His many books include The Theory of Corporate Finance and Financial Crises, Liquidity, and the International Monetary System.

Wouter den Haan is Co-director for the Centre for Macroeconomics and Professor of Economics at LSE.

The Department of Economics at LSE (@LSEEcon?) is one of the largest economics departments in the world. Its size ensures that all areas of economics are strongly represented in both research and teaching.

The Centre For Macroeconomics? (@CFMUK?) brings together world-class experts to carry out pioneering research on the global economic crisis and to help design policies that alleviate it.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2017/10/20171017t1830vOT/Economics-for-the-Common-Good
 
Description CFM Public Event - The Growth Delusion 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact David Pilling explores how economists and their cult of growth have hijacked our policy-making and infiltrated our thinking about what makes societies work. Our policies are geared relentlessly towards increasing our standard measure of growth, Gross Domestic Product. By this yardstick we have never been wealthier or happier. So why doesn't it feel that way?

This lecture marks the publication of David's latest book, The Growth Delusion?.
Chair - Ethan Elzetzki
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2018/01/20180129t1830vSZT/the-growth-delusion
 
Description CFM Public Lecture with The BoE Financial Policy Committee, External Member Richard Sharp 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact CFM presented The BoE Financial Policy Committee, an experiment in macro prudential management and work in progress: an External Member's view with Richard Sharp

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description CFM Survey 19/12/2017 - Bitcoin and the City 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Summary

The majority of leading European economists do not believe that cryptocurrencies are a threat to the stability of the financial system, either now or in the next couple of years, according to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey. Mainstream financial markets are thought to be suitably isolated from developments in Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, which, in any case, has a market capitalisation that is small relative to the size of the economy. But a majority of panel members are in favour of greater regulatory oversight, primarily because of concerns that the anonymity and opacity of cryptocurrencies facilitate tax evasion and other criminal activities. There is only limited support for regulating cryptocurrencies to preserve the effectiveness of monetary policy.

Background

Cryptocurrencies have been a staple of news headlines in 2017. As the price of one Bitcoin has risen 12-fold in sterling terms during the course of 2017, the number of Google searches for Bitcoin has increased 14-fold. There are now more than 2,000 cryptocurrency ATMs across the globe, with the United States (1,107), Canada (293), the UK (97) and Austria (91) leading the way.

A great deal has been written about Bitcoin, in many cases speculating on whether there is a bubble in its price and what might happen if and when the bubble bursts. A Google search for 'Bitcoin bubble' produces 17.8 million page hits. This survey eschews the bubble question and asks instead whether cryptocurrencies are a threat to the financial system and therefore deserving of greater regulatory oversight by policy-makers.

Cryptocurrencies and the financial system

In 2012, a working paper [1] published by the European Central Bank (ECB) concluded that, in the current situation, virtual currency schemes:
do not pose a risk to price stability, provided that money creation continues to stay at a low level;
tend to be inherently unstable, but cannot jeopardise financial stability, owing to their limited connection with the real economy, their low volume traded and a lack of wider user acceptance.

The ECB returned to the theme in a working paper in 2015 [2]:
For the tasks of the ECB as regards monetary policy and price stability, financial stability, promoting the smooth operation of payment systems, and prudential supervision, the materialisation of risks depends on the volume of virtual currency issued, their connection to the real economy - including through supervised institutions involved with virtual currencies - their traded volume and user acceptance. For the moment, all these risk drivers have remained low, which implies that there is no material risk for any of the central bank's tasks as yet.

The main argument of the ECB and other central banks [3] is that cryptocurrencies are too small and too detached from other financial markets to be a systemic risk. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the top 1,000 or so cryptocurrencies are worth $350 billion, less than Facebook Inc., and if they all went to zero tomorrow, banks would barely notice. [4]

One reason for cryptocurrencies remaining small is current technological constraints, which show up as high transaction fees and limit the use of cryptocurrencies as a medium of exchange. [5] The maximum seven transactions per second capacity of Bitcoin compares with a peak processing capacity of 47,000 transactions per second at Visa. Chiu and Koeppl (2017) estimate that the current Bitcoin scheme generates a flow welfare loss of 1.4% of consumption in a general equilibrium monetary model. [6]

A less sanguine view is that Bitcoin's increasing market capitalisation and trading volumes reflect accelerating professionalisation of investment in cryptocurrency markets, leading to a disruption of financial markets that poses risks for the stability of prices and the financial system.

In the latest evidence that cryptocurrencies are pushing deeper into the mainstream, recent months have seen asset management company Tobam launching Europe's first Bitcoin mutual fund and US regulators giving the green light for two of the world's largest futures exchanges - the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) - to list futures contracts on Bitcoin. [7,8]

Concerns about bearing the risks of uncovered short selling in cryptocurrency markets have been expressed by the Futures Industry Association, a lobby group representing some of the world's largest brokers, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup. [9]

Some authors see cryptocurrencies entering the mainstream markets as beneficial to the stability of the financial system. Dyhrberg (2016) explores the financial asset capabilities of Bitcoin in GARCH models and finds that it may be useful in risk management and ideal for risk-averse investors. [10] She classifies Bitcoin as somewhere between gold and the US dollar in terms of its use as a medium of exchange and a store of value.

Bianchi (2017) finds a similar relationship between returns on cryptocurrencies and commodities such as gold and energy, consistent with existing models in which trading is primarily driven by investor sentiment. [11]

Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?

Forty-eight panel members answered this question. A large majority did not see cryptocurrencies as posing a threat to financial stability either now or in the next couple of years: 73% of respondents either disagree or strongly disagree with the statement; 21% either agree or strongly agree; and 6% neither agree nor disagree. Those who disagree are the most confident in their assessments, raising the proportion of panel members disagreeing or strongly disagreeing to 75% when responses are weighted by self-reported confidence.

A common argument of those who disagree with the statement is that the total value of cryptocurrencies is too small to be a systemic risk to financial stability. As Robert Kollman (Université Libre de Bruxelles) puts it, 'Despite recent growth, the market cap of cryptocurrencies remains modest, compared to the size of "conventional" financial markets. Hence, cryptocurrencies do not seem to represent a threat to financial stability - for now.'

Jordi Galí (Universitat Pompeu Fabra) is similarly relaxed, neither agreeing or disagreeing with the statement, while contending that 'It depends on the volumes they end up representing relative to the size of the economy and the characteristics (e.g. degree of leverage) of their holders. In their current state they seem largely innocuous for financial stability.'

Many of those who disagree with the statement believe that the financial system is largely insulated from developments in cryptocurrency markets. Michael McMahon (University of Oxford) thinks cryptocurrencies are 'still too small and lacking in widespread ownership, especially among large investment groups, to be a serious risk to the overall financial system'; and Ethan Ilzetzki (London School of Economics, LSE) asserts that at this point 'Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain a toy for a very narrow segment of investors and are detached from the financial system and the real economy.'

A note of caution is sounded by Wouter den Haan (LSE), who in agreeing with the statement recalls that 'The LTCM crisis has taught us that it takes just one key financial institution taking on large risky positions to put the system at risk.'

In justifying why they disagree with the statement, Richard Portes (London Business School) argues that 'cryptocurrencies have few attributes of money'; and Ricardo Reis (LSE) points out that 'Bitcoin is inadequate as a currency.' The latter sees cryptocurrencies as no more a threat to financial stability than gold, saying that 'Like gold, [Bitcoin] fluctuates wildly in value and it is subject to fads and manias. As long as regulators treat it as a highly speculative investment, like so many other investments out there, then it should pose as much risk to the financial system as so many of these do.'

Those who agree with the statement stress the unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the future of cryptocurrencies. Etienne Wasmer (Sciences Po, Paris) worries that 'this is radical uncertainty, nothing close in history as far as I can tell', while Stefan Gerlach (BSI Bank, Switzerland) warns that 'Cryptocurrencies are currently not a threat to the financial system but could very well become a serious concern in the near future if they become more important.'

Some of those who disagree with the statement accept that cryptocurrencies may eventually threaten the stability of the financial system. While David Smith (Sunday Times) believes that cryptocurrencies only have limited ability to damage the financial system now, 'That will change, though not over the next two years.' Tony Yates (longandvariable blog) is similarly unconvinced of the current threat but suggests that, 'I doubt the situation would change much in two years. Perhaps in 10.'

Jürgen von Hagen (Universität Bonn) has a different reason for strongly disagreeing with the statement, maintaining that causation may run from instabilities in the financial system to the use of cryptocurrencies rather than the other way around. He does not consider cryptocurrencies as a threat to stability, writing 'The financial system is still based on currencies issued by central banks. Cryptocurrencies would become attractive if central bank issued currencies became very unstable. Their widespread use in the financial system would be a result not a cause of instability.'

Cryptocurrencies and economic policy

Bitcoin is currently classified as a commodity in the United States, so its trading is covered by the Commodity Exchange Act and overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. In common with other commodities such as gold or oil, there is no traditional management structure behind cryptocurrencies. They are typically launched through an 'initial coin offering' (ICO), which allows investors to purchase cryptocurrencies in advance, an arrangement similar in spirit to an initial public offering (IPO) but bypassing the rigorous capital-raising process required by venture capitalists or financial intermediaries.

Bianchi (2017) ultimately sees holding Bitcoin as investing in the blockchain technology, since it shares more similarities with equity investment in a company than investments in traditional fiat currencies. [11]

The UK and other European Union (EU) governments are responding to concerns that cryptocurrencies are being used for money laundering and tax evasion. In the UK, the Treasury will bring regulation on cryptocurrencies in line with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financial legislation. Anonymity will be lost as traders are forced to disclose their identities.

The EU plan will require online cryptocurrency trading platforms to carry out due diligence on customers and report suspicious transactions. [12] In her speech at the conference to mark 20 years of independence of the Bank of England, Christine Lagarde proposed the International Monetary Fund as the ideal platform to coordinate regulatory policy on new models of financial intermediation. [13]

If the current interest in cryptocurrencies is a precursor to their wider use as alternatives to the dollar, the pound, the euro and the yen, then this may threaten the monopoly on money creation that is held by policy-makers. Central banks cannot print Bitcoins, so if the world switches away from fiat currencies, then they would be unable to print money to stimulate the economy. Conventional monetary policy would be ineffective, as would quantitative easing.

According to this argument, increased regulation of cryptocurrencies is needed so that central banks do not lose control of the money supply. Tony Yates [14], who was formerly a Bank of England economist, as well as former president of the Bundesbank Axel Weber [15] doubt that this would a problem, arguing instead that cryptocurrencies will fail to take off because they lack any 'lender of last resort' function. There will always be boom and bust in cryptocurrencies, unlike for fiat currencies backed by central banks as lender of last resort.

Supporters of cryptocurrencies argue that the lack of regulation has been instrumental in their successes to date, often presenting cryptocurrencies as the digital version of the nineteenth century gold standard when no attempt was made to equate the supply of money with demand.

A working paper [16] from the Bank of Finland in 2017 concludes that Bitcoin cannot be regulated and does not need to be regulated in any case. Regulation is appropriate for monopolies run by management organisations, but not for monopolies run by protocols. Speaking at a press conference in October 2017, ECB president Mario Draghi reasoned that cryptocurrencies are not mature enough to be considered for regulation, although they should be critically assessed for risk. [17]

Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

Forty-nine panel members answered this question. A clear majority wished to see greater regulation of cryptocurrencies: 61% of respondents either agree or strongly agree with the statement; 31% either disagree or strongly disagree; and 8% neither agree nor disagree. Those who agree are most confident in their assessments, raising the proportion of panel members agreeing or strongly agreeing to 73% and decreasing the proportion disagreeing or strongly disagreeing to 29% when responses are weighted by self-reported confidence.

The most common reason for agreeing with the statement is a concern that the anonymity of cryptocurrencies promotes nefarious activities. Fabrizio Coricelli (Paris School of Economics) is worried about the 'likely use of Bitcoin for recycling revenues from illegal transactions'; while Franck Portier (University College London) advocates greater oversight of cryptocurrencies because 'as cash, they are used for tax evasion and criminal activities.'

For Nicholas Oulton (LSE), cryptocurrencies should be subject to additional supervision because 'One strand of current policy is to crack down on money laundering and tax evasion through tax havens. So it would seem odd to let cryptocurrencies get around these restrictions.'

There is some support for increased regulatory oversight to preserve the effectiveness of monetary policy, although this is far from being a widespread belief among respondents. Sylvester Eijffinger (Tilburg University) agrees with the statement because he sees cryptocurrencies as 'undermining the monopoly of money creation by the central banks and [leading to] the ineffectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy.'

But Pietro Reichlin (Università LUISS G. Carli) disagrees, arguing that the power of monetary policy may not be affected by cryptocurrencies because 'Central Banks (or governments) are the only authorities able to provide the fiscal backing required to offer safe assets and generate lender of last resort type of policies.' He concludes that more oversight is unnecessary 'as long as Bitcoin holders are aware of what [the] risks are.'

Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School) also disagrees with the statement, but recommends a cautious approach in which 'regulators should carefully watch the development' and there is 'careful monitoring of "this space".'


A different argument for disagreeing with the statement is provided by Jon Hassler (Stockholm University), who is worried that 'there is a risk that regulatory oversight may create a perception that cryptocurrencies are legitimate investments. They should not be perceived like that.'

Jürgen von Hagen (Universität Bonn) goes further in defending cryptocurrencies by asking 'What is the point of a privately issued currency regulated by the government? Such currencies are created to avoid the supposed evil effects of government regulation on monetary and financial stability.' Francesco Lippi (Università di Sassari) doubts that regulation would be possible in any case, concluding that 'None of the arguments proves more regulation is desirable, nor that it would be effective.'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/bitcoin-and-city
 
Description CFM Survey 25/11/2017 - House Prices and the UK economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Summary

A majority of leading economists think that the phenomenon of declining prices in the London property market will ripple out to the rest of the UK, according to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey. Asked whether a widespread weakening of the housing market will slow GDP growth significantly, the experts are more divided: roughly a half agree and roughly a third disagree. Several point to uncertainty about the eventual Brexit outcome making it very difficult to engage in predictions about house prices and growth; others suggest that lower house prices could be a good thing for the UK economy, especially young people.

Background

Before the UK's 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union (EU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that a vote to leave would be likely to lead to 'sharp drops in equity and house prices, increased borrowing costs for households and businesses, and even a sudden stop of investment inflows into key sectors such as commercial real estate and finance.'

After the Brexit vote in June 2016, the UK economy seemed to have avoided the predicted real estate slowdown. According to the Nationwide Building Society's House Price Index, annual UK house price growth was 4.5% in January 2017, slightly higher than the 4.4% annual house price inflation in January 2016 before the referendum.

But in recent months, there appears to have been a more marked slowdown in the growth of house prices. The same Nationwide index now indicates that UK house prices grew by only 2% in year to September 2017, having dropped steadily since March 2017.

More surprisingly, the usually buoyant London market is leading this recent trend of a cooling property market. The Economist discussed the relative slowdown across London price brackets. For the first time since 2005, London is the weakest performing region in the UK with house prices having fallen by 0.6% in the third quarter of 2017 (July-September) and up only 1.2% on a year earlier. The East Midlands is the fastest growing region with house price inflation of 5.1% in the third quarter.

London, nonetheless, remains the most expensive region in the UK. The average house in London costs £471,761 compared with £177,825 in the East Midlands and £127,213 in the North of England. The most recent falls would need to accelerate and persist for many quarters to close these gaps.

The importance of the housing market in the UK is further seen in measures taken in the Budget 2017 announcements on 22 November 2017:
First, to help young people to purchase a home, the government abolished stamp duty for first-time buyers up to a house price value of £300,000. Specifically targeting the London market, if the property costs up to £500,000, then first-time buyers will pay no stamp duty on the first £300,000.
Second, the Chancellor announced a £44 billion plan, in the form of direct government investment, guarantees and loans, which with planning reforms aims to increase housing supply.

The latest CFM-CEPR expert survey explores two aspects of recent developments in UK house prices:
First, we consider what respondents think is behind the recent developments considering, for example, potential roles for a delayed effect of Brexit and higher interest rates.
Second, we ask about the likely effects on the UK economy of a continued cooling of the housing market.



Developments in UK regional house prices

One view is that the slowdown in London house prices is a sign of likely future developments in the rest of the UK. Such a view stresses signs of cooling in the housing market. For example, mortgage approvals fell to 66,232 in September (a three-month low). Housing transactions decreased by 1.8% between August 2017 and September 2017.

The September 2017 RICS survey's main indicators on demand and sales 'both slipped deeper into negative territory, with this subdued picture anticipated to persist over the coming months.' The RICS survey results also suggest that London is the weakest of the UK regions but is certainly not alone in experiencing a slowing housing market. And to the extent that the Bank of England's November increase in interest rates is the start of a gradual normalisation of interest rates, higher mortgage costs will contribute to lower demand in the whole country.

On the other hand, some of these signs of housing market weakness are less pronounced than had been expected previously. For example, the September mortgage approvals outturn was slightly above the mean of a Reuters' poll of economists. And the Bank of England's November Inflation Report concluded on the housing market that 'the outlook is more resilient than in August.'

There are also reasons for thinking that there are London-specific factors at work. For example, London may be more affected by Brexit concerns, was potentially already over-valued and is more affected by higher stamp duty on second homes than other regions.

The first question in the CFM-CEPR survey asked for views about the current outlook for the UK housing market.

Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?

Forty-four panel members answered this question. Overall, the panel members agree with the statement; 47% either agree or strongly agree (54% weighted by self-reported confidence); 23% either disagree or strongly disagree; and around 20% neither agree nor disagree.

Sean Holly (University of Cambridge) strongly agrees and cites his own research (Holly et al, 2011) showing that 'a ripple effect emanates from London, and in time spreads out to other regions.'

Ethan Ilzetzki (London School of Economics, LSE) also cites his own research (Cloyne et al, 2017) to point out the channel of the likely spillover from a slowdown in London house prices. His results indicate that 'a £1 decline in housing prices leads to a 20p decline in borrowing', and that the decline in borrowing would weaken consumption demand by Londoners. This leads him to conclude that 'house prices in the rest of the country are bound to suffer as well.'

Ray Barrell (Brunel University) is one of a number of panel members who point to the combined effect of moderating demand and, potentially, expanding supply. 'Housing supply might rise. Housing demand growth will moderate, in part because the reality of the costs of exiting the EU will begin to be felt.' He emphasises the effect of reduced EU migration on demand, and points out that this is likely to affect the regions around London but less so elsewhere.

Sir Christopher Pissarides (LSE) agrees that the effects will be greatest in London but does 'not see any reason why the rest of the country would be immune to that'.

Jonathan Portes (Kings College London) thinks that the outcome of the Brexit negotiations will be key to the behaviour of house prices across the UK. 'The central scenario remains sluggish growth, both in the economy and for house prices. But the prospect of a "chaotic Brexit" could make matters considerably worse.'

Strongly disagreeing, Patrick Minford (Cardiff University) points to 'good signs of steady upward movement now outside London' and emphasises London-specific factors driving behaviour there. Richard Portes (London Business School) and David Smith (Sunday Times) both think that non-London regions will experience less growth rather than falls in prices.

Martin Ellison (University of Oxford) explores the relationship using the Nationwide index. His analysis suggests that, if anything, house prices in the non-London regions are a better predictor of the behaviour of London house prices than vice versa. Acknowledging the importance of the Brexit outcome, he nonetheless notes that that 'the -5.1% fall in London house prices seen in the immediate aftermath of Black Wednesday 1992Q4 failed to ripple out in any meaningful way.'

A number of panel members feel that the uncertainty is too great at the moment (and possibly in general) to engage in predictions about what will happen. They neither agree nor disagree with the statement. This group includes Panicos Demetriades (University of Leicester), Morten Ravn (University College London, UCL) and Ricardo Reis (LSE).

Some respondents see desirability in a fall in house prices. Dame Kate Barker (British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme) actually sees falls in regional house prices as possible, but thinks that the declines in regions outside London would be driven by different factors than the ones affecting London house prices and hence it would not be a rippling out.

Two panel members think the focus on house price growth is itself wrong. Andrew Mountford (Royal Holloway, University of London) points to 'the damaging structural role that housing plays in the UK economy' through reduced social mobility, threats to financial stability and investment that is distorted toward housing.

David Miles (Imperial College London) points out that small, often transitory, house price oscillations should not attract the attention they do. He notes that 'newspapers get very excited by even the smallest fall and start writing about meltdown coming across the UK and then within a few months are writing stories about London being on fire again.'

The macroeconomic effects of weaker housing markets

The Bank of England's November 2017 Inflation Report states that: 'Housing investment growth overall is projected to be fairly subdued in coming quarters.' Historically, there is a high correlation in the UK between consumption growth and house price inflation. This suggests that weakness in the housing market is likely to reduce household consumption, as well as having a direct effect on investment.

A weaker housing market may also exacerbate already weak productivity through increased mismatch. Households that are unable to sell a property may potentially be unable to switch employment and move to a better job match without a long commute.

International evidence, however, suggests that the effects of house price depreciations are not so simple. For example, Mian et al (2015) find asymmetric effects in the United States of large and moderate house price depreciations. Aizenman et al (2016) examine a panel of countries and find a positive effect of large house price depreciations on economic growth.

As such, a significantly weaker UK housing market, especially when led by reductions in the price of property in London, may actually boost GDP growth. For example, Caballero et al (2008) show that falling house prices may force low-productivity firms out of the market, which would further free up bank credit to lend to productive firms. And with less mortgage lending activity, credit may be reallocated toward the commercial and industrial sectors.

More affordable housing may also make it easier for younger workers who are currently renting to move into areas with high-productivity jobs. Furthermore, a major house price correction may redistribute wealth toward the young, thereby helping to address intergenerational inequality.

The second question in the CFM-CEPR survey asked for opinions on the effects of a weaker housing market on UK growth:

Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

Forty-three panel members answered this question. 44% either agree or strongly agree (53% weighted by self-reported confidence), 35% (33%) either disagree or strongly disagree, and 19% (14%) that neither agree nor disagree.

Costas Milas (University of Liverpool) notes that 'Both in 1990 and in 2008, a big drop in real house prices preceded recessions.' Some members point to a likely wealth effect. Roger Farmer (University of Warwick and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research) says that 'Housing wealth is over half of all UK wealth and, if house price growth falls or reverses, there will be a significant feedback effect on to measured growth.'

John Muellbauer (Nuffield College, University of Oxford) emphasises the short-run negative consequences of house prices through weaker aggregate consumption given that the 'collateral effect on spending in the UK of housing wealth and the buffer stock role of home equity, given easy refinancing of mortgages, is substantial.' But he also stresses some factors indicating that the home-equity channel is likely to be weaker than it was in the early 2000s: young people are increasingly unlikely to have a mortgage, higher proportions of mortgages are at fixed rates, mortgage credit is more restricted now and retirees are 'fairly insensitive to variations in owner-occupied housing wealth.'

Ray Barrell (Brunel University London) worries that 'weak house prices may reduce entrepreneurial activity and business investment, as many small ventures are initially financed on the back of loans secured on residential property.' Ricardo Reis and Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School) point to the effects on the construction sector.

Sylvester Eijffinger (CentER, Tilburg University) agrees with the statement and worries that the relationship will be stronger than typically because it is accompanied by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations.

Wouter den Haan (LSE) disagrees but also worries that, potentially, 'combined with Brexit uncertainty, falling house prices may negatively affect confidence substantially and then effects could be bigger.'

Many panel members point out problems of looking at correlations between economic activity and house prices. Jan Eeckhout (UCL) believes that 'the causality from GDP growth to housing (and not in the other direction) seems dominant.' John Van Reenen (MIT Sloan) similarly argues that a Brexit-induced decline in real incomes will cause 'both a fall in consumption and house prices (relative to trend).'

Michael Wickens (Cardiff Business School and University of York) additionally notes that an 'attempt to increase the supply of housing would "weaken" the housing market but would generate output and not slow output growth.'

Disagreeing with the statement, some members think that the effects will be muted and so disagree with the statement's use of 'significantly'. Richard Dennis (University of Glasgow) expects 'weakness in the housing sector to damp GDP growth somewhat'. But he notes that 'if house prices were to fall bringing about a steep decline in residential investment, then that would be a different story.'

Some respondents - for example Andrew Mountford, Dame Kate Barker and Gianluca Benigno (LSE) - think that lower house prices would be a good thing for the UK economy and especially young people. John Muellbauer also emphasises how 'a switch from taxation on transactions (stamp duty) to taxation of property values', together with housing supply expansion, could 'increase rates of family formation and reduce the outmigration of talented Brits seeking a better life outside the UK.'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/house-prices-and-uk-economy
 
Description CFM Survey of 12/10/2017 - Juncker's State of the Union Address 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Summary

The European Commission president's suggestion that joining the euro should be compulsory for all EU members is not well received by over three quarters of leading economists responding to the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey. Asked a broader question about the success of the common currency, half the experts think it has had more benefits than costs while only a quarter think the opposite. The majority view is that there have been significant benefits but the way the Eurozone has been operated has also imposed significant costs.

Compulsory Eurozone membership

In Jean-Claude Juncker's latest 'State of the Union' annual address, the president of the European Commission said the following:[i]

'If we want the euro to unite rather than divide our continent, then it should be more than the currency of a select group of countries. The euro is meant to be the single currency of the European Union as a whole. All but two of our Member States are required and entitled to join the euro once they fulfil all conditions.'

The first question of the latest CFM-CEPR expert survey asked panel members the following question from an economic point of view.

Question 1: Do you agree that euro membership should be compulsory for all EU member states?

Sixty-four panel members answered this question. A strong majority of 76% either disagree or strongly disagree; 11% neither agree nor disagree; and 14% either agree or strongly agree. The outcome is similar when the answers are weighted with self-reported confidence levels.

Among the panel members who disagree, several highlight the importance of having the right economic conditions for a monetary union to be mutually beneficial. Kevin O'Rourke (University of Oxford) says that the Eurozone 'isn't an optimal currency area as it stands. Broadening it won't help. I see no sign of the EU wishing to put in place a genuine fiscal union, or even a genuine US-style banking union.'

Similarly, Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School) argues that 'Business cycles and economic structures across EU countries are too different to justify one currency. The Eurozone crisis has shown that too diverse a group of countries do not make a sustainable currency area - diversity not only in economic structure and cycles but also institutions.'

A more general argument is put forward by Martin Ellison (University of Oxford) who comments that 'in economics we typically want to make something compulsory if there is a clear market failure I don't see what the market failure is here that would need such compulsion. Shouldn't the benefits of a monetary union be sufficient to ensure that countries like Sweden and Poland join willingly?' A related view is expressed by Simon Wren-Lewis (University of Oxford): 'This is politics driving economics, yet again.'

Panel members who disagree with the idea of compulsory euro membership also point to the problems that Eurozone countries have faced. Michael Wickens (University of York) says that 'Membership of the euro has proved disastrous for Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain as it has given them the wrong monetary policy and, through persistently higher inflation and negative real interest rates, caused a huge loss of competitiveness and fuelled over-borrowing and excessive indebtedness.'

Several of the experts who disagree with the idea of compulsory euro membership argue that a common currency could be bad for a unified EU. Jürgen von Hagen (University of Bonn) writes 'The euro has already proven destructive and divisive for the countries currently using it. It would be foolish to repeat the earlier mistakes of making countries adopt the euro which are not ready for it. It would be even more foolish to force countries to adopt the euro which do not wish to do so. This would further weaken the European Union.'

By contrast, experts who agree with the statement stress the role of the euro for further economic and political integration. Panicos Demetriades (University of Leicester), who strongly agrees, emphasises the need for further integration and the role of the euro. He argues:

'Without further integration, the risks of rising nationalism and populism pose a serious threat. Further economic convergence is needed and better social safety nets. Sooner or later some degree of fiscal federalism will be needed and the use of the common currency makes all aspects of integration a lot easier. It also makes Europe a more powerful force internationally. The momentum needs to be maintained, so that in one or two generations, citizens of Europe will not know any alternatives. At that stage, Europeans will begin looking like the United States. Does anyone today think that California or Florida could have their own currencies?'

Fabrizio Coricelli (Paris School of Economics), who also strongly agrees, writes: 'As the EU is meant to provide a framework for full economic integration, it makes little sense to have some EU members outside the euro. This differentiation potentially puts in motion disintegration forces.'

Volker Wieland (Goethe University Frankfurt), who neither agrees nor disagrees, points out that 'it is a fact already that all EU member states except Denmark and Great Britain are required to adopt the euro once they fulfil the conditions. I agree that it is a fact at this point. I would not recommend starting an initiative to change the current rules.' He continues: 'I think great care should be given to the economic conditions. Clearly, there've been mistakes in the past, and countries admitted based on faulty data or insufficiently sustainable conditions.'

The euro: benefits versus costs

Juncker's remarks once again raise questions about the success of the euro (or lack thereof). The second question of the survey asked the panel of experts to make an overall judgement.

Question 2: Do you agree that the euro has had more benefits than costs?

Sixty-six panel members answered this question. Only a small minority disagrees: 50% either strongly agree or agree; 24% neither agree nor disagree; and 26% either strongly disagree or disagree. When answers are weighted with self-reported confidence levels, then the fraction disagreeing increases slightly to 27%.

Several of our panel members point out that this is a difficult question to answer. One reason is that it is not clear what institutions would have been in place in the Eurozone countries without the euro. Moreover, this question has many dimensions and requires weighing of the impact of the euro for different countries and across different time periods.

The views of the majority are nicely summarised in comments made by David Cobham (Heriot-Watt University): 'there have been and are significant benefits - better monetary policy for many countries, lower transactions costs, a more stable external exchange rate, etc. - but the way the Eurozone has been operated has also imposed significant costs, notably since 2010-11. However, it should be possible to eliminate those costs without losing the benefits.'

Several experts argue that there have been winners and losers. John Van Reenen (MIT), who neither agrees nor disagrees, says 'The euro has had benefits, especially for core countries. But for peripheral countries the effect has been adverse as exemplified by Greece where an extreme adverse shock could not be partially offset by exchange rate flexibility.'

Some panel members see advantages outweighing disadvantages for a larger set of countries. Tomasso Monacelli (Bocconi University), who agrees, argues that 'on net, the benefits have outweighed the costs for all countries, although the benefits have not been shared evenly.'

Disagreement among macroeconomists is often due to weighing the importance of different aspects of a problem differently. What is somewhat unusual about this survey is that there is also some disagreement about the benefits and/or costs of particular channels.

For example, Ray Barrell (Brunel University), who strongly agrees, points out that 'Removing exchange rate volatility encourages trade and investment, and this gain outweighs any costs for most countries. The euro cements this gain.' On the other hand, Ethan Ilzetzki (London School of Economics), who disagrees, writes 'it is hard to detect any substantial trade benefits to the currency union.'

A similar battle of opinions can be found regarding the loss of independent monetary policy induced by the euro. Albert Marcet (Institut d'Analisi Economica), who agrees, argues that the euro 'has given monetary discipline to countries that used to have chaotic monetary environments.'

By contrast, several respondents point to the costs of not having an independent monetary policy. Joseph Pearlman (City University London), who neither agrees nor disagrees, writes 'one interest rate for all is never going to be ideal unless, as in the US, there is fiscal federalism.'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/junckers-state-union-address
 
Description CFM Survey, Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility (December 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
In the December 2015 Centre for Macroeconomics survey, we asked for the panel's views about the Chancellor's plans for debt reduction over the rest of this Parliament that were announced in the Autumn Statement on 25 November. We also asked about the economic rationale for the Charter for Budgetary Responsibility that was announced in the summer. A significant number of respondents felt that the plans for debt reduction were not appropriate and that the Chancellor's Charter for Budgetary Responsibility would not help underpin the credibility of fiscal policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/autumn-statement-charter-budgetary-responsibility
 
Description CFM Survey, Autumn Statement (December 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
In the wake of the Chancellor's Autumn Statement on Wednesday, the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) has conducted its monthly survey of leading UK-based macroeconomists.
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The experts have never been as united in their views since the beginning of the CFM survey in April of this year. In contrast to previous surveys, this survey was not announced in advance and panel members were given only half a day to answer the question after the survey was opened. Nevertheless, 28 of the 42 panel members participated in this survey.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/2014-autumn-statement
 
Description CFM Survey, Brexit and financial market volatility (February 2016) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/brexit-and-financial-market-volatility
 
Description CFM Survey, China's growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects (November 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
What are the prospects for the Chinese economy and its international impact? Three quarters of the experts in the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) monthly survey believe that China's annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is divided on whether the slowdown will have a significant impact on the UK economy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/china%E2%80%99s-growth-slowdown-likely-persistence-and-effects
 
Description CFM Survey, Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff (June 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
A large majority of respondents think that these types of measures would have non-trivial negative effects on Greek GDP. Moreover, a majority thought that such measures could actually reduce the amount of money that creditors would eventually receive, for example, because it would have negative effects on Greed GDP.
Although quite a few respondents think that Greece could just as well throw in the towel and default on some of its debt right now, the majority think that this would not be beneficial right now.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/deal-or-no-deal-greece-standoff
 
Description CFM Survey, Devolving Income Tax Powers within the UK (November 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
This month's survey looks at the devolution of extensive new fiscal powers to Scotland following the independence referendum in September, which showed a majority of Scots preferred Scotland to be within the UK. The Smith Commission is overseeing the process of finding an agreement to 'strengthen the powers of the Scottish Parliament within the UK' (emphasis added). We therefore asked our respondents to answer our questions from the perspective of the whole UK, rather than from one constituent nation or another.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/devolving-income-tax-powers-within-uk
 
Description CFM Survey, ECB's quantitative easing (October 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
Will the risk-sharing arrangements within the European Central Bank's quantitative easing (QE) programme reduce its effectiveness? According to the latest monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) reported in this column, our panel of experts are exactly evenly divided. The written responses suggest that this divergence reflects differences in views about the channels through which QE operates.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/ecbs-quantitative-easing
 
Description CFM Survey, Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland, (June 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
Would Scotland be better-off in economic terms as an independent country? Not according to an overwhelming majority of respondents to the third monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), summarised in this column. As the Scottish electorate prepares to vote on independence in September, a smaller majority of the CFM experts agree that the UK would be acting in its own economic interests by ruling out a monetary union with an independent Scotland.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/economic-consequences-independent-scotland-june-2014
 
Description CFM Survey, Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy (May 2014) 
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Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
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Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/euro-area-deflation-and-risk-uk-economy-may-2014
 
Description CFM Survey, Greece's elections and the future of the Eurozone (January 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
If, as seems likely, the Syriza party wins the Greek election on 25 January, what will be the impact on the Eurozone? This column summarises the views of 40 UK-based experts polled by the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM). A 60% majority of survey respondents do not think that a Syriza victory will cause interest-rate spreads for other countries in the Eurozone periphery to increase significantly or for a sustained period. But opinion is more evenly divided on whether core Eurozone countries and the EU should be open to renegotiating the Greek debt and the conditions of the Greek bailout.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/greece%E2%80%99s-elections-and-future-eurozone
 
Description CFM Survey, Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects (January 2016) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
The January 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for the panel's views on the significance of the recent falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies. While all recognise the considerable uncertainty in the world economy, more than two thirds do not fear that these events will have a significant negative impact on the UK's economic recovery. The main argument is that any negative effect due to lower foreign demand and market instability is compensated by the benefits of lower oil prices.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/market-turbulence-and-growth-prospects
 
Description CFM Survey, Migration Policy (August 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
This month's survey focuses on the impact of migration on the UK economy and the effectiveness of current government migration policies. Among respondents to the fifth monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), there is overwhelming support for the view that migration will increase the average income of current UK inhabitants. Moreover, the panel of experts thinks that current government policies are not effective in attracting the 'best and brightest' - in fact, they may even be doing the opposite.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/migration-and-uk-economy-august-2014
 
Description CFM Survey, Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB) (June 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
Does monetary policy really face a zero lower bound or could policy rates be pushed materially below zero per cent? And would the benefits of reforms to achieve negative policy rates outweigh the costs? This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, suggests that there is no strong support for reforming the monetary system to allow policy rates to be set at negative levels.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/monetary-policy-and-zero-lower-bound-zlb
 
Description CFM Survey, Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK (April 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
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Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/prospects-economic-growth-uk-april-2014
 
Description CFM Survey, Secular Stagnation (October 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
This month's questions concern the revival of interest in the idea of secular stagnation. The survey was conducted in the last week of September. A full list of written responses from our panel of experts can be found here. Only 24% (27% if we weigh by confidence) of respondents think that the Western economies have entered a period of secular stagnation. Indeed, several panel members question whether secular stagnation is a useful and well-defined concept and this may explain the lack of strong views on either side. Despite some ambivalence to the idea of secular stagnation, the number of respondents who think that policies should be more concerned about low real interest rates is substantially higher than the number that do not.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/secular-stagnation
 
Description CFM Survey, The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity (April 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
In the week before the dissolution of Parliament, the Centre for Macroeconomics asked its panel of experts about the effects of governments on aggregate economic activity.
The great majority of respondents disagree with the proposition that the coalition government's austerity policies have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity. And an overwhelming majority of respondents agree that the outcome of the general election (assuming a stable government is formed) will have non-trivial consequences for economic activity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/importance-elections-uk-economic-activity
 
Description CFM Survey, Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England (March 2015) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
Following the Warsh Review, the Bank of England plans to release its policy decisions, 'enhanced' meeting minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time. This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, reveals substantial support for the idea of simultaneously providing the different MPC documents. In order to make this possible, the Bank plans to change the structure of its Monetary Policy Committee meetings. When the proposed change in the structure is taken into account, the panel is split on the desirability of the Bank's plans.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/transparency-and-effectiveness-monetary-policy-following-warsh-review-b...
 
Description CFM Survey, UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy (July 2014) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts.
How should UK policy-makers respond to potential dangers to the economy from the housing market? As this survey reports, a majority of respondents to the fourth monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) think that house price dynamics do pose a risk to the UK's recovery; and that macroprudential tools rather than traditional interest rate policy should be deployed to deal with this risk.
Coincidentally, while our survey was open the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee (FPC) announced its first macroprudential interventions to prevent the build-up of housing related imbalances.[1] The FPC recommended that no more than 15% of a lender's total number of new mortgages should be at or greater than four and a half times borrowers' income and that an affordability test should assess whether borrowers can afford their mortgages if Bank Rate was three percentage points higher.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/uk-house-prices-and-macro-prudential-policy-july-2014
 
Description CFM and LSE Department of Economics Public Lecture 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Dr Keyu Jin discussed the impact of China's financial reforms.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/pla...
 
Description CFM and LSE Department of Economics Public Lecture 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Professor Lord King discussed Professor Lord Stern his new book, The End of Alchemy: Banking, the Global Economy and the Future of Money, which suggests original ways to end the alchemy of our current monetary and banking system and to correct the disequilibrium in the world economy today.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
 
Description CFM event - CFM Cambridge-INET talk: Trilemma in crisis: economics and politics in Qatar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Abstract:

The open economy trilemma states that a country cannot simultaneously pursue monetary stabilisation, fix its exchange rate and maintain an open capital account. In this presentation I will first discuss how Qatar experimented policy solutions around the trilemma while maintaining its exchange rate fixed during the 2008 global financial crisis, with money market rate collapsing near the zero lower bound and inflation reaching record high rate in recent history. Second, I will analyse how stabilisation policy evolved in response to the current political crisis in the Gulf, focusing on how Qatar has so far been dealing with an economic blockade imposed on it by three neighboring countries in addition to the boycott by Egypt. Effective policy responses rest on understanding how this blockade is impacting the economy, by identifying the areas of major exposure as well as potential sources of strength.

Dr. Khalid Rashid Alkhater is a specialist in monetary policy, political economy, and economic growth. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California at Irvine (2009), and BS (with Honor) and MA degrees in Economics with Minor in Mathematics from Western Michigan University in the US. He is the Director of the Department of Research and Monetary Policy (DRMP) and member of the Monetary Policy and Investment Committees at Qatar Central Bank. He is a Research Fellow of the Centre for Macroeconomics and the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the University of Cambridge (UK), and had served as a Scholar-in-Residence at Georgetown University (Qatar) over the period 2011-2012. He had represented Qatar in the Technical Committee for the GCC Monetary Union over the period 2003-2010. Before becoming the Director of the DRMP in 2005, he had served as the Acting/Assistant Director of the same Department over the period 2003-05. His areas of research interests include: monetary and exchange rate policies, macroeconomic policies and economic diversification in the GCC countries, the GCC and the Eurozone Monetary Unions, the political economy of the rentier state and the Arab Spring counties. Some of his work has been published in scientific journals, research centers, and book chapters, and he has participated, as a speaker and lecturer, in numerous local, regional, and international conferences and scientific events.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/our-events/cfm-cambridge-inet-talk-trilemma-in-crisis-economics-and-...
 
Description CFM meeting with senior delegation from Bosnia and Herzegovina as part of the FCO Fellowship scheme 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact A a high level delegation from Bosnia and Herzegovina met with CFM macroeconomists for a presentation and Q&A session
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description CFM survey 12/10/2017 - Global risks from rising debt and asset prices 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Summary

The outgoing German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has recently expressed concerns about the risks posed to the world economy by high levels of debt. In the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey of leading economists, a strong majority of respondents agree that an excess of public and private debt together with inflated asset prices mean that the world economy faces heightened risks. A similarly strong majority of the experts also agree that the loose monetary policy of major central banks is responsible for the recent increase in global leverage and asset values.

Background

Wolfgang Schäuble, the outgoing German finance minister, warned in an FT interview this week that 'economists all over the world are concerned about the increased risks arising from the accumulation of more and more liquidity and the growth of public and private debt.'

This follows an assessment by the Bank of International Settlements, whose chief economist, Claudio Borio has tied inflated asset values to loose monetary policy: 'We do not fully understand the factors at work. But surely the unprecedented gradual pace of monetary policy normalisation has played a role. Another factor could be market participants' belief that central banks will not remain on the sidelines should unwarranted market tensions rise. All this underlines how much asset prices appear to depend on the very low bond yields that have prevailed for so long.'

Risks posed by rising debt and asset prices

The first question of the latest CFM-CEPR expert survey asked panel members about the risks that debt poses to the world economy.

Question 1: Does the world economy face heightened risks arising from an excess of public and private debt and/or inflated asset prices?

Sixty panel members answered this question. A strong majority of 65% either agree or strongly agree, 15% neither agree nor disagree, 18% disagree, nobody strongly disagrees and 2% have no opinion. Leaving out the respondents who neither agree nor disagree or have no opinion, the majority increases to 78%. The outcome is similar when answers are weighted with self-reported confidence levels.

Despite the broad consensus, several participants point out that this is not an easy question. Jonathan Portes (King's College London) argues that: 'It is of course almost impossible to call 'bubbles' ex ante And it is even harder to predict precisely how a sharp reversal would manifest itself and how large any negative consequences would be.'

But he and several others also think that the warning signs are there. In fact, more than a few panel members point out that debt levels and asset prices are at historically high levels. Roger Farmer (University of Warwick and National Institute of Economic and Social Research), who strongly agrees (and is extremely confident), is especially worried and writes: 'PE [price-earnings] values are close to all time highs. They can go up further. But they WILL eventually crash with very bad consequences.'

Morten Ravn (University College London) points to a particular reason why we should be more worried now, specifically: 'Large gross asset and liability positions are a risk especially since households and firms might have got used to a low interest rate environment.'

Ricardo Reis (London School of Economics) reminds us of the reason to be concerned about high debt levels, namely: 'Increases in credit seem to be predictive of financial crises, and likewise for the level of public debt and sovereign debt crises'; although he qualifies this statement by adding: 'But the associations are weak, not very stable, unclear if causal, and there are lots of false positives.'

Several panel members point to particular current risks. Sweder van Wijnbergen (Universiteit van Amsterdam) warns that: 'German banks are loaded up with German debt to the extent of almost three times their capital value.'

Pietro Reichlin (Università LUISS G. Carli) thinks that it is 'mainly a public debt problem. Low interest rates in these countries and loose monetary policy reduce governments' incentives to make fiscal consolidations and banks' incentives to dispose of non-performing loans.'

By contrast, Andrew Mountford (Royal Holloway, University of London) thinks that the current risk 'is not due to a build-up of public debt but due to a failure to address the bias in the financial system towards the taking of excessive risk. Fundamentally the financial system hasn't significantly changed since 2007.' Similarly, David Miles (Imperial College London) argues that: 'The agents who are still least able to withstand shocks, given their enormous leverage, are banks.'

The panel members who disagree argue that the financial system has become safer. For example, Ray Barrell (Brunel University London) writes: 'Private debt increases in the advanced economies are less worrying now we have a better capitalised banking system than in 2007.' And Francesco Giavazzi is confident that 'we have the tools to address a problem if one were to arise.'

Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics), who also disagrees, takes a step back and argues that: 'As often when thinking in normative terms, we need to identify the market imperfections at play.' He continues that economic agents are not 'forced' to hold public and private debt, except possibly banks regarding public debt. He concludes that: 'Excess of public and private debt is mainly a consequence of this saving glut.'

The role of loose monetary policy

The second question of the survey inquired into the causes of elevated debt or asset prices.

Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage and/or asset values?

Sixty-one panel members answered this question. A strong majority of 62% either agree or strongly agree, 18% neither agree nor disagree and 20% disagree or strongly disagree. Leaving out the group that neither agrees nor disagrees, the majority increases to 76%. The outcome is similar when answers are weighted with self-reported confidence levels.

A frequent comment made is that increased leverage and higher asset values are a natural consequence of lower interest rates. Several panel members who agree with the statement go one step further and agree with a view well summarised by David Miles, who writes: 'To a large extent this [higher leverage and/or asset values] was its aim [of expansionary monetary policy] because in raising asset values and leverage it raised demand.'

Several experts expand on the underlying reasoning. Stefan Gerlach (BSI Bank) explains: 'Monetary policy, in the form of lower interest rates, works by increasing asset prices and stimulating interest-sensitive spending, in particular on private and commercial real estate. Much of what commentators now worry about are thus the predictable effects of expansionary monetary policy - this is how monetary policy works.'

Simon Wren-Lewis (University of Oxford) expands on this reasoning when he writes: 'Asset values yes - that was the inevitable consequence of QE [quantitative easing].'

In the reasoning used so far, the word 'responsible' in the question is interpreted as meaning 'being caused by'. But a related interpretation is whether the recent increase in global leverage and/or asset values is the 'responsibility' of central banks' monetary policy. Panel members who disagree focus on this related issue and point out that, as mentioned by Martin Ellison (University of Oxford), 'if there are problems here then it is up to macroprudential policy to sort it out.'

John Hassler (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University), who neither agrees nor disagrees, writes: 'The major factor behind the rise in asset values and leverage is the long trend towards lower real interest rates. This trend has nothing to do with monetary policy. In the shorter run, however, central banks do affect real rates which recently has come on top of the trend.' Other panel members echo this view.

Although not an explicit part of the question, several panel members reason that the expansionary monetary policies put in place across different countries were the right responses despite possible negative side effects. David Cobham (Heriot-Watt University) asks 'why monetary policy has had to act in this way, and the answer is obvious: the refusal of governments (notably Schäuble's!) to use fiscal policy in an appropriate manner, which has been based on a range of incorrect arguments for austerity.'
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/global-risks-rising-debt-and-asset-prices
 
Description CFM, Cambridge, and INET conference on Aggregate Demand, the Labor Market and Macroeconomic Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Aggregate Demand, the Labor Market and Macroeconomic Policy, Cambridge, September 4-5, 2014, Corpus Christi College, Cambridge in collaboration with CFM, Cambridge, and INET

Promoted questions and discussions and requests for further conferences
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description COUER - Morten Ravn 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Talk given by Morten Ravn at EU Commission Brussels which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Cambridge Macroeconomic Seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Wouter DenHaan which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Seminar given by Angus Armstrong at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
 
Description Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence? - St. Petersburg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Katerina Lisenkova in St. Petersburg which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Can and Should the Eurozone Survive? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Lionel Barber gives his views on the ongoing Eurozone crisis, the economic and political challenges ahead, and the future of the Euro. CFM Public Conversation, Chaired by Wouter Den Haan
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Can research and innovation fuel the UK economy? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Talk given by Chris Pissarides in Brighton UK, this sparked questions and discussion afterwards
Growth comes from human inventiveness: how to do new things and how to do everything faster and better. It also comes from things like the ability to organise production and exchange better. Research can be focused on how to adapt the ways of others to our own economy. We still have a lot to learn from the United States in some sectors of the economy, like retail trade and other services (especially management), but research and adaptation are usually exercised by emerging nations. Japan in the 1970s and China in the 2000s grew by learning how to copy the ways of the West and adapt them to their comparative advantage. The UK today is not in that position. If it is to grow and prosper it needs new and more technologically-advanced investment and management needs to learn how to run businesses efficiently in both the private and public sectors.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Carney's tools gets backing in economists poll - City AM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article in City AM which sparked

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.cityam.com/1404781268/carney-s-tools-get-backing-economist-poll
 
Description Causes of latin American productivity gap 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Francesco Caselli as a participant in a Debate at the World Bank

Increased requests for further information and participation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Centre For Macroeconomics Advisory Board Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact The Advisory Board oversees the Centre's strategy and programme of work, advises the Centre in order to reach its overall objectives and supports the Centre in its impact generating activities.
The Advisory Board Meeting was held to update the Board on and discuss past, present and fuure centre activities
This sparked questions and discussion

Commitment made to keep the yearly event up
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description China's Role in the Global Economy: Myths and Realities 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Centre for Macroeconomics and Department of Economics Lecture Series
The CFM and Department of Economics lecture series focuses on topical macroeconomic questions. Its aim is to give an informative and balanced overview of available knowledge among macroeconomists. This talk considers China's growing role in the world economy.
Speaker: Keyu Jin is a lecturer at LSE and member of CFM. Her research has focused on global imbalances and global asset prices, as well as international trade and growth
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Chris Pissarides- Keynote address at the 12th Conference on Research on Economic Theory & Econometrics 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The 12th Conference on Research on Economic Theory and Econometrics (C.R.E.T.E. 2013) took place at Naxos from Sunday July 14 through Thursday July 18, 2013.
This summer school involves invited faculty and PhD candidates from Greece and abroad, in various areas of economic theory and econometrics. The first meeting took place in 2002 and the series has since been continued each summer.
The program includes senior invited lectures in selected areas, as well as paper presentations by advanced PhD students and more junior faculty. Presentation given by Chris Pissarides which generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Cleveland Fed Household Economics Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 30 people attended a one day event, sharing of research and generating discourse.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/Newsroom%20and%20Events/Events/2015/Household%20Economics%20and%20De...
 
Description Collateral Constraints and Macroeconomic Asymmetries - Matteo Lacoviello (Federal Reserve Board) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEP/CFM/LSE Money-Macro Workshop on 4th November 2014 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Collateral Risk, Repo Rollover and Shadow Banking 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Shengxing Zhang at numerous locations; Queen's University, Kingston, Canada, LBS, London, UK, Duke University, North Carolina, US,Federal Research Bank at Chicago, US and Toronto University, Toronto, Canada

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Collusion: how central bankers rigged the world - Nomi Prins 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In her new book, which she will talk about at this event, former Wall Street insider Nomi Prins shows how the 2007-2008 financial crisis turbo-boosted the influence of central bankers and triggered a massive shift in the world order. Central banks and international institutions like the IMF have overstepped their traditional mandates by directing the flow of epic sums of fabricated money without any checks or balances. Meanwhile, the open door between private and central banking has ensured endless opportunities for market manipulation and asset bubbles-with government support.

Journalist and former global investment bank executive Nomi Prins (@nomiprins?) is the author of six previous books. This event marks the publication of her latest book, Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World?.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2018/05/20180514t1830vSZT/Collusion-how-central-bankers-rigged-the-world
 
Description Communal Land and Agricultural Productivity - University of Cambridge 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Charles Gottleib that sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Comparing Housing Booms and Mortgage Supply 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact talk given by Angus Armstrong at the Future of Housing Finance conference co-sponsored by CFM which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Conference "Matching, Theory and Estimation" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Conference "Matching, Theory and Estimation"

Sciences Po, 56 rue des St Peres, Paris

September 26-27, 2013

Sponsored by ERC (Grants WASP and ECOMATCH) and CEMMAP

Presentation made by Markus Rieglier which sparked questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Conference in Honour of Robert Barro 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact CFM and STICERD conference in honour of Robert Barro . The conference is mainly to celebrate Robert's contribution to economics by participating in the discussion. The programme consists of seven papers given by four of Robert's students (Marios Angeletos, Xavier Gabaix, Keyu Jin, and Michael Kremer) and by three junior faculty members at the LSE who are working on areas to which Robert contributed (Ethan Ilzetzki, Pascal Michaillat, and Michael Peters). This was a lot of questions, interaction, discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Contract Enforcement Costs, Productivity, and Industry Structure Across Countries 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Johannes Boehm on Contract Enforcement Costs, Productivity, and Industry Structure Across Countries which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Contract Enforcement Costs, Productivity, and Industry Structure Across Countries 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Contract Enforcement Costs, Productivity, and Industry Structure Across Countries

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Credit Crunches and Credit Allocation in a Model of Entrepreneurship - Istanbul School of Central Banking 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Led to questions and discussion afterwards

Higher than expected interest, requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Credit Crunches and Credit Allocation in a Model of Entrepreneurship - Norges Bank 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Credit Dynamics and the Macroeconomy (Bank of England) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Two day series of presentations sparking discussion on reserach and pollicy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/pdf/Events/1512-BoE.pdf
 
Description Credit Traps and Credit Policies 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation by Angus Foulis which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
This paper develops an overlapping generations model with credit frictions. The model

has multiple steady states, and following a negative shock to the financial sector, it can fall into a 'credit trap': a steady state featuring permanently low output, bank lending, and financial sector net worth. In our model, banks' borrowing constraints depend on their net worth. Thus, a large, unexpected negative shock to banks' net worth makes them unable to finance productive investments, which in turn makes the economy 'stuck' in a 'bad' equilibrium characterised by low investment and output. We show that a leverage ratio cap can reduce the risk of an economy falling into a credit trap, but only at the expense of lowering the output in the 'good' steady state. Once the economy is in a credit trap, however, relaxing the leverage ratio cap will not help to get it out of the trap. We show situations in which a change in sectoral risk weights can work. When these fail, bank recapitalisation is needed

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Credit Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Get Out of Them 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Credit Traps: How to Avoid Them and How to Get Out of Them

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Currency Unions and Sovereign Debt: the Case for Scottish Independence 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Angus Armstrong at the CFM London Macroeconomics Workshop in May 2014

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Deal of no Deal: The Greece Standoff - CFM Survey results June 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Questions were put to a panel based on the following summary
Last week (week of June 22nd), the Greek authorities presented a new proposal to its creditors, consisting of increases in contributions to the government pension scheme, a widening of the 23% VAT rate (but a reduced rate of 13% on energy, basic foods, catering and hotels), an increase in the corporate tax rate from 26% to 29%, an increase in the "solidarity" income tax rate that had been initiated under previous bailout programmes, and a reduction in defence spending

Referenced in The Chronicle and Financial Times. This resulted in requests for interviews and discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/deal-or-no-deal-greece-standoff
 
Description Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/deal-or-no-deal-greece-standoff
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact 21st CEPR European Summer Symposium in International Macroeconomics (ESSIM), Izmir, Turkey, Hosted by The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey 21-24 May 2013 by Kevin Sheedy which generated questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk by Kevin Sheedy that sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact 29th - 30th April 2013, Macroeconomics and Econometrics Conference at the University of Birmingham.



Keynote speakers were:

Roger Farmer (UCLA, Bank of England)

Thomas Lubik (Richmond Fed)

Simon Wren-Lewis (Merton College, Oxford)





Sparked questions and discussion afterwards
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact 29th - 30th April 2013 Macroeconomics and Econometrics Conference at the Birmingham Business School presentation given by Kevin Sheedy which generated questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Kevin Sheedy at the Anglo-French-Italian Macroeconomics Workshop: 21-22 June hosted by The Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macro-Econometrics (BirkCAM) which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The 62nd Annual Meeting of the French Economic Association (Association Fran?aise de Science Economique, AFSE), held in Aix-en-Provence,

> June 24-26, 2013 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards



followed, at the same location, by the 12th Journ?es Louis-Andr? G?rard-Varet, Conference in Public Economics, June 26-28, 2013



The two meetings hosted by the Aix-Marseille School of Economics.

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The Econometric Society, North American Summer meeting, University of Southern California, 13-16 June 2013, https://dornsife.usc.edu/assets/sites/90/imgs/2013nasm/header.png This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact An argument that is sometimes made for a monetary policy that targets a path for nominal GDP (NGDP) is that it reduces risk for most borrowers who take out debt contracts with repayments fixed in nominal terms

Blog by Kevin Sheedy

http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/sheedy-on-ngdp-targeting-and-debt.html

Interest, responses and discussion generated
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/sheedy-on-ngdp-targeting-and-debt.html
 
Description Debt and Incomplete Financial Markets: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact 2013 Midwest Macro Meeting



The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign hosted the Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings from May 16 through 19, 2013, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Deflation in urozone.... - The Times 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article relating to CFM survey in The Times which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for interviews and information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article4089029.ece
 
Description Demand Effects and Labour Market Interactions 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics

http://editorialexpress.com/conference/SED2013/program/SED2013.html#67

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Development Accounting - F Caselli - Paris 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation to policymakers - Paris (OECD), sparked questions and discussion

generated queries and discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Development accounting: methods and results 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact talk by Francesco Caselli at World Bank, Latin American Department Conference. this sparked questions and discussion aferwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Development and Misallocation - Lecture at INSPER Business School 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Tiago Cavalcanti at the INSPER Business School Sao Paulo, this talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Discussion of An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Labor Market Search by Lars-Alexander Kuehn, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau and Lu Zhang 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Thijs van Rijns - Dicussant at the Barcelona GSE Summer Forum

http://www.barcelonagse.eu/tmp/pdf/SummerForumProgramBooklet.pdf this sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Discussion of Breaking the Spell with Credit Easing - Cambridge University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Sparked questions and discussion

Higher than expected interest, requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Discussion of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents by Nils Gornemann, Keith Kuester and Makoto Nakajima 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Thijs van Rijns - discussant at Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Agents Workshop held at the London Business School. This sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Discussion of Segmented Housing Markets by Piazzesi and Schneider - Silvana Tenreyro 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Discussion panel which included Silvana Tenreyro, this sparked questions and discussion afterwards
The conference brought together a fantastic mix of quantitative macroeconomists and applied microeconometricians that shared their views on the empirical usefulness of various approaches to quantify the heterogeneity in the responses of economic agents to policy and other structural shocks.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Discussion of Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Shocks 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Silvana Tenreyro was part of a discussion group for the paper Small and Large Price Changes and the Propagation of Shocks by Fernando Alvarez, Francesco Lippi and Le Bihan at Cambridge University which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

There was an increase in requests for further participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Discussion of Transparency versus Tone: Public Communication with Limited Commitment - Cambridge MA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Led to requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Discussion of When Does a Central Bank's Balance Sheet Require Fiscal Support? - Marco Bassetto 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion at Conference (Frontiers of Macroeconomics) at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, sparked discussion and questions

High interest, requests for more information and collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Diversification Through Trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at invited session - EEA which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Diversification through Trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Invited session at the 35th Brazilian Meeting of Econometrics at Foz de Iguazu, Brazil on 12/12/2013

Requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Diversification through Trade - Nottingham - F. Caselli 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Conference presentation that sparked questions and discussion afterwards

High interest from participants, requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Diversification through Trade - Keynote conference presentation - Beijing - Francesco Caselli 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Keynote presentation, sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Do Oil Windfalls Improve Living Standards? Evidence from Brazil 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation given by Francesco Caselli to the World Bank, Latin American Department

Future related activities; requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Durables and The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given, EIEF Rome by Silvana Tenreyro

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description EDP Jamboree 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact All participants in the EDP get together each year for one or two short sessions, devoted to seminars on special topics and student presentations. These sessions, drawing on the common faculty resources, also provide students with information about current research activities, help orient their own work, and offer guidance on research subjects and associated supervisors. This generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland - CFM Survey, June 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
A. Armstrong, F. Caselli, J. Chadha, W. Den Haan

Requests for interviews from journalists, raised the profile of CFM and the work of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/economic-consequences-independent-scotland-june-2014
 
Description Economic Policy Panel 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Member of a panel discussion at the Central Bank of Lithuania. This sparked questions and discussions afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Economist Conference - debating on Europe's Future - Chris Pissarides 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation by Chris Pissarides which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
Cabinet Ministers, heads of financial institutions and organizations and prominent economists take part in the event to brainstorm and share insight with decision-makers from politics, business, finance and academia on what lies ahead for Europe. In addition, leading experts were invited to openly discuss and debate on how Cyprus may find its way towards stability.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Economists negative about UK migration policies - VoxEU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact VoxEU article on CFM August 2014 survey which generated discussion and interest in CFM and the CFM survey

This lead to increased interest in the work of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.voxeu.org/article/migration-policy-survey-uk-based-macroeconomists
 
Description El Ahorro Individual: Mejores Pensiones y Más Desarrollo Económico 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Keynote address by Christopher Pissarides on The Labour Market: Unemployment and Informality

Increased requests for information and involvement, plans made for future activities
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy - CFM Survey, May 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
A. Armstrong, F. Caselli, J. Chadha, W. Den Haan

Requests for interviews from journalists, raised the profile of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/prospects-economic-growth-uk-april-2014
 
Description Europe: For Better or Worse 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Will entrenched structural impediments such as long term unemployment and aging demographics permanently diminish Europe's attractiveness as location for investments versus the United States?, lecture given by Chris Pissarides. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description European Macroeconomics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Organised by the Centre For Macroeconomics13 invited participants and 6 Chairs and 15 additional participants
http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/pdf/CFM-EMW-Workshop-Programme.pdf
This sparked greater interaction, questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description European Summer Symposium International Macroeconomics 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Organiser of EUROPEAN SUMMER SYMPOSIUM IN INTERNATIONAL

MACROECONOMICS (ESSIM) 2013, Hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), Izmir, Turkey; 21-24 May 2013

http://www3.tcmb.gov.tr/CEPR/Program.pdf this sparked questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description European Summer Symposium in International Macroeconomics 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact paper presented which led to further discussion

Further discussion, more information and collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Eurozone deadlock : finding a path out of the crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Joint with CEP, we organized this event about the Euro crisis. Professor Luis Garicano gave a lecture and a panel consisting of professor Paul de Grauwe, professor John Van Reenen, and professor Wouter Den Haan commented. The moderator was professor Francesco Caselli. This event was open to the public.
This generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Eurozone deadlock: Finding a path out of the crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Joint with CEP, we organized this event about the Euro crisis. Professor Luis Garicano gave a lecture and a panel consisting of professor Paul de Grauwe, professor John Van Reenen, and professor Wouter Den Haan commented. The moderator was professor Francesco Caselli.
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Eurozone deflation could derail UK economy - VoxEU article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact voxEU article on the May 2014 CFM survey that sparked questions and discussion

Requests for more information, involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Exchange rate adjustment: discussions - Various locations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti at various locations; Macroeconomics of Global Interdependence April 4 and 5, 2014, CREI Barcelona; ECB-IMF conference, `International dimensions of conventional and unconventional monetary policy, April 29-30; CERP SNB Conference i`Exchange Rates and External Adjustmenti^, June i`International dimensions of conventional and unconventional monetary policyi^ April 29 and 30, 2014. These talks sparked discussion and questions

Led to requests for more information, future involvement and future related activities
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Exploratory Analysis of the English Business Survey 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Seminar presentation given by Simon Kirby at BIS

Generated a lot of discussion and requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Finance after a 'Yes' - Angus Armstrong 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Angus Armstrong on 5th June 2014 which sparked questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Financial Crises Lessons from History (Cambridge University) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact One day series of presentations, which sparked discussion afterwards.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Financial crisis will not have long term impact on UK Growth - The Guardian 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article in the Guardian following the April 2014 CFM survey that sparked questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/apr/14/financial-crisis-unlikely-long-term-i...
 
Description Firm Dynamics, Growth and Contractual Frictions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact Staff Seminar given by Michael Peters at LSE which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Firm Dynamics, Growth and Contractual Frictions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given to faculty at University of Cologne, Germany by Michael Peters which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description First Impressions Matter: Signalling as a Source of Policy Dynamics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Michael McMahon at Birkbeck University

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Fiscal Austerity and Reputation - Luca Metelli (LSE) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEP/CFM/LSE Money-Macro Workshop on 7th October which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Fiscal Policy during Recessions and Recoveries 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Centre for Macroeconomics and Department of Economics Lecture Series
Lecture given by Ethan Ilzetzki

The CFM and Department of Economics lecture series focuses on topical macroeconomic questions. Its aim is to give an informative and balanced overview of available knowledge among macroeconomists. This talk discusses what is known about the effects of austerity and fiscal stimulus on economic activity.
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards



Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Pontus Rendahl at the Mannheim Center For Macroeconomics and Finance on Fiscal Policy in an Unemployment Crisis

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Forecasting with Judgment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk by Raffaella Giacomini in Berekley California which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
We consider a formal framework for incorporating judgmental corrections into a base multivariate density forecast using exponential tilting. We define judgment as a belief about moments of the distribution of a subset of the variables considered by the base multivariate forecast. Common examples are expert judgments about the mean, variance, covariance, quantiles and probability distribution of some macroeconomic variables, such as those contained in the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Analysts forecasts. Although exponential tilting has a long tradition in econometrics, the two main contributions of this paper are: 1) to formalize the method in a classical inferential context with out-of-sample forecast evaluation objectives and parameter estimation uncertainty; 2) to investigate when the incorporation of judgment results in accuracy improvements. In particular, we provide a testable condition that can guide a forecaster in deciding which type of judgment to incorporate and when to incorporate it. An implication of our analysis is that judgment does not have to be correct to be useful for forecasting.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Forecasting with Judgment 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation by Raffaella Giacomini, Oct. 2013, Berkeley, California

We consider a formal framework for incorporating judgmental corrections into a base multivariate density forecast using exponential tilting. We define judgment as a belief about moments of the distribution of a subset of the variables considered by the base multivariate forecast. Common examples are expert judgments about the mean, variance, covariance, quantiles and probability distribution of some macroeconomic variables, such as those contained in the Survey of Professional Forecasters and Blue Chip Analysts forecasts. Although exponential tilting has a long tradition in econometrics, the two main contributions of this paper are: 1) to formalize the method in a classical inferential context with out-of-sample forecast evaluation objectives and parameter estimation uncertainty; 2) to investigate when the incorporation of judgment results in accuracy improvements. In particular, we provide a testable condition that can guide a forecaster in deciding which type of judgment to incorporate and when to incorporate it. An implication of our analysis is that judgment does not have to be correct to be useful for forecasting.

Stimulated further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Forward Guidance: Communication, Commitment, or Both? - Toulouse, France 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation led to further questions and discussion

Requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Friends of Europe State of Europe VIP Roundtable 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A CONVERSATION WITH Sir Christopher Pissarides, Nobel prize-winner in economics and Regius Professor at the London School of Economics (LSE), and a roundtable discussion on the options open to Europe as it strives to resolve both short-term and structural economic challenges while also reviving public support for the EU.
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Future of the Euro 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Panel discussion at the University of Padova, Italy in which Francesco Casellli was a participant

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description GENERALISED DENSITY FORECAST COMBINATIONS 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at EEA-ESEM 2013



Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a meansof improving forecast 'accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we

generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general

schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density

combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to

forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that

let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically,

in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the

generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.

requests for more information and discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy - Chinese University of Hong Kong 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Rachel Ngai at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, this talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to increased requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description General Equilibrium Effects of Targeted Transfers: The case of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) - Numerous locations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Charles Gottleib at numerous venues; European University Institute, Florence, Italy, University of Cologne, Germany and University of Frankfurt this talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Generalised Density Forecast Combinations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Presentation given by Simon Price at City University to Post Graduates and potential graduates
Abstract

Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means

of improving forecast 'accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we

generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general

schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density

combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to

forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that

let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically,

in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the

generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.

JEL Codes: C53

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
 
Description Generalised Density Forecast Combinations 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Density forecast combinations are becoming increasingly popular as a means

of improving forecast 'accuracy', as measured by a scoring rule. In this paper we

generalise this literature by letting the combination weights follow more general

schemes. Sieve estimation is used to optimise the score of the generalised density

combination where the combination weights depend on the variable one is trying to

forecast. Specific attention is paid to the use of piecewise linear weight functions that

let the weights vary by region of the density. We analyse these schemes theoretically,

in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical study. Our results show that the

generalised combinations outperform their linear counterparts.

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/german-council-economic-experts-view-ecb-policy
 
Description Giving guidance on future monetary policy in a very uncertain world - David Miles 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact CFM lecture given by David Miles MPC, Bank of England which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Global imbalance and structural change 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at UAB

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Goods Markets, the Macroeconomy and Policy - Paris 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact talk given by Wouter DenHaan which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data - Valerie Ramey - (University of California, San Diego) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEP/CFM/LSE Money-Macro Workshop on 14th October 2014 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Greece Elections and the Future of the Eurozone - CFM Survey January 2015 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Questions were asked based on --If, as seems likely, the Syriza party wins the Greek election on 25 January, what will be the impact on the Eurozone? This column summarises the views of 40 UK-based experts polled by the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM). A 60% majority of survey respondents do not think that a Syriza victory will cause interest-rate spreads for other countries in the Eurozone periphery to increase significantly or for a sustained period. But opinion is more evenly divided on whether core Eurozone countries and the EU should be open to renegotiating the Greek debt and the conditions of the Greek bailout. - See more at: http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/greece%E2%80%99s-elections-and-future-eurozone#sthash.4uBRticY.dpuf

This survey resulted in articles in Share Radio https://audioboom.com/boos/2810500-francesco-caselli-cep_lse-talks-about-possible-effects-of-a-grexit and The Money Market http://www.money-marketuk.com/Business-and-Finance/4170-could-eurozone-deflation-derail-uk-recovery.html. It also resulted in queries and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/greece%E2%80%99s-elections-and-future-eurozone
 
Description Growth Risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Paper presented at the EUROFRAME conference in Warsaw in May 2013

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy - CFM Survey May 15, 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Are quantitative measures of subjective wellbeing reliable enough to provide insights into empirical macroeconomic analysis, and should they influence the objectives of macroeconomic policy? The latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR expert survey finds a reasonable amount of openness to wellbeing measures among European macroeconomists. On balance though, there remains a strong sense that while these measures merit further research, we are a long way off reaching a point where they are widely accepted and sufficiently reliable for macroeconomic analysis and policymaking.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/happiness-and-well-being-objectives-macro-policy
 
Description Has the West entered secular stagnation - Voxeu article on CFM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact VoxEu article in response to the October 2014 CFM survey. This article sparked interest in the work of CFM and the CFM survey

Increased interest in CFM and the work of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Heterogenous Mark-Ups and Endogenous Misallocation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Michael Peters in Cologne, Germany which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Homo Economicus - Homo Hellenicus" Lecture by Christopher Pissarides & Stelios Ramfos 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Public lecture as part of the Greece and the West lectures given by Chris Pissarides

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description House of Lords Macroeconomic Policy Group 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Working group on alternative macroeconomic policies, generating discourse on economic policy practice.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Household debt and the dynamic effects of tax changes 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact This paper investigates a new channel in the transmission of scal policy: household debt. Using a long span of expenditure survey data and a new

narrative measure of exogenous income tax changes for the UK, mortgagors exhibit large and persistent consumption responses to tax changes. Home owners without a mortgage, in contrast, do not appear to react, with responses not

statistically di erent from zero at all horizons. Social renters increase their con-

sumption, but by less than mortgagors. Households with non-mortgage debt

also tend to adjust their expenditure by more than non-borrowers. Splitting

the sample by age and education yields only limited evidence of heterogeneity

as the distributions of these demographics overlap across housing tenures. Our

ndings highlight the role of household debt in evaluating the e ectiveness of

scal policy both in the aggregate and across di erent groups in society.
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Household debt and the dynamic effects of tax changes 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by James Cloyne at the University of Bonn

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Household saving (NIESR's August 2013 Review) on Today Programme, BBC Radio 4. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview given by Simon Kirby on Household saving (NIESR's August 2013 Review) on Today Programme, BBC Radio 4. This sparked discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle talk, this sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Housing Market Risk to the Economy - Pieria 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact article in Pieria in response to July 2014 CFM survey that generated discussion on social media

Increased requests for interviews and advice
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/housing_market_risks_to_the_uk_economy_time_to_deploy_macroprudenti...
 
Description Housing, Housing Credit, and the Macroeconomy Conference, Thursday 14 and Friday 15 September 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Conference on housing, housing Credit and the Macroeconomy held at UCL in london
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description IMF goes back to the future with gloomy talk of secular stagnation - The Guardian 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Guardian article with reference to CFM survey, this has lead to increased interest in the CFM survey and CFM

Increase in requests for further participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description IPPR North: Implications of Scottish powers for NE England - Angus Armstrong 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Presentation given by Angus Armstrong which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Improving UK economic growth interview on BBC Radio 5Live - 5Live Drive 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview given by Simon Kirby to Radio 5Live - 5Live Drive on Improving UK economic growth interview on BBC. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Input Demand and Trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact lecture given by Michael peters at the University of Edinburgh. This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description International Economic Trends 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Keynote address given at Hi-Tech Forum: Capital Market Summit by Chris Pissarides in Shenzhen, China. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description International Monetary Policy - SNB Study Center, Gersenzee, Bern Switzerland 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti at central Bankers Seminar at SNB Study Center, Gersenzee, Bern Switzerland. This presentation created lively discussion and questions

Requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Interview, Times Higher Education (Filipa Sa) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article citing comments made during the Royal Economic Society's annual conference, and subsequent interview discussing tuition fees and policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL https://www.timeshighereducation.com/news/tuition-fees-hike-hit-courses-with-low-salary-expectations...
 
Description Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Talk given by Wouter DenHaan which sparked questions and discussion afterwards at the National Bank of Serbia

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Invited presentation at the Paris School of Economics by Wouter DenHaan which generated questions and discussion

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Seminar presentation by Wouter DenHaan done at the Bilkent University, Turkey

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Inventories and the Role of Goods-Market Frictions for Business Cycles 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Changes in the stock of inventories are important for fluctuations in aggregate output. How

ever, the possibility that ...rms do not sell all produced goods and inventory accumulation are typically ignored in business cycle models. This paper captures this with a goods-market friction. Using US data, "goods-market e? ciency" is shown to be strongly procyclical. By including both a goods-market friction and a standard labor-market search friction, the model developed can substantially magnify and propagate shocks. Despite its simplicity, the model can also replicate key inventory facts. However, when these inventory facts are used to discipline parameter values, then goods-market frictions are quantitatively not very important.
Tis sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Investing in Inclusive Growth with Bill Morneau, Canada's Minister of Finance 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Canada's Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau, shares his views on the global economy and how Canada is investing to strengthen its middle class and grow the economy over the long term.

Previously, he led Morneau Shepell and was Pension Investment Advisor to Ontario's Finance Minister. Morneau's community service in Toronto is extensive, having supported the arts, helped street kids, and improved access to health care and education. Internationally, he founded a school for Somali and Sudanese youth in an African refugee camp.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/pla...
 
Description Is Europe Working? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Christopher Pissarides has been appointed as Regius Professor at LSE. In 2010 he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for his work with Peter Diamond and Dale Mortensen on the analysis of markets with search frictions. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Is Everything You Hear About Macroeconomics True? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Centre for Macroeconomics and Department
of Economics Lecture Series
This talk discussed the real (and perceived) weaknesses, the strengths, and the challenges of modern macroeconomics.
Speaker: Wouter Den Haan is a Professor at LSE and Co-director of the Centre for Macroeconomics. This generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Is VAT a Very Alterable Tax in China? - Xiaoguang Chen (LSE) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEP/CFM/LSE Money-Macro Workshop on 21st October which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Is the Federal Reserve breeding the next financial crisis? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Done by Cesa-Bianchi, A., & Rebucci, A.

http://www.voxeu.org/article/federal-reserve-breeding-next-financial-crisis%20-%20.UWZyK_dAnQg.facebook

Feedback, discussion and requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
URL http://www.voxeu.org/article/federal-reserve-breeding-next-financial-crisis%20-%20.UWZyK_dAnQg.faceb...
 
Description It's time to deploy macroprudential policy - VoxEU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article following the dissemination of CFM Survey July 2014 results

Increased interest in the CFM survey and CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.voxeu.org/article/macroprudential-policy-survey-uk-based-macroeconomists
 
Description Italy after the elections 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Debate at Chatham House where Francesco Caselli was a participant in the debate http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/190187

http://www.chathamhouse.org/events/view/190187
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk by Vincent Sterk at EEA meetings Toulouse and Richmond Fed Macro labor conference which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Job Uncertainty and Deep Recessions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact talk by Morten Ravn presented at Bocconi University, Toulouse University, Brussels and Rome which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Jordi Gali, CREI, Barcelona 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an open day or visit at my research institution
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Collaborative visit by Thijs van Rijns to Jordi Gali, CREI, Barcelona

Increased requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Labor Markets and Business Cycles: Part 3 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Part 3 of a Seminar series given by Robert Shimer for PhD students in which he discusses "Standard" Preferences and Technology. This sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Labor Markets and Business Cycles: Part 4 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Part 4 of a seminar series given by Robert Shimer to PhD students in which he discusses:

Stochastic Trends
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Labor Markets and Business Cycles: Part II 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Part 2 in a seminar series given by Robert Shimer to PhD students in which he discusses:

1) Discrete Time Models

2) Recursive Formulation and

3) Bargaining

this sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Labor Markets and Business Cycles: Part1 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Part 1 of a seminar series given by Robert Shimer to PhD students in which he discusses:
1. basic facts about the labor market over the business cycle
2. linear search model
3. synthesis of search and neoclassical models and
4. wage rigidities
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Labour Markets and Monetary Policy - CFM Survey 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.


Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/labour-markets-and-monetary-policy
 
Description Labour market slack and inflation - multiple presentations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Stephen Millard at Brunel University,University of Bournemouth and University of the West of England which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Learning about asset prices and financial frictions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact Presentation made at LSE Economics seminar

Learning about asset prices and financial frictions
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Learning dynamics and the support for economic reforms: why good news can be bad 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: many reforms that started o¤ successfully, lost public support nevertheless. We show that learning dynamics can rationalize this paradox, the reason being that the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement. We show that this concept challenges the conventional wisdom that one should start by revealing reform winners. We use our framework to explain why gradual reforms worked well in China (where successes in Special Economic Zones facilitated further reform), while this is much less so for Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries. This sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Learning dynamics and the support for economic reforms: why good news can be bad 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Support for economic reforms has often shown puzzling dynamics: there are many examples of reforms that started off successfully but nevertheless lost public support, and vice versa. We show that learning dynamics can rationalize this apparent paradox, the reason being that the process of revealing reform outcomes is an example of sampling without replacement: every winner revealed reduces the number of unfilled winning places left, thereby making individuals who remain uncertain on their identity (reform winner or loser?) more pessimistic about their chances of benefiting from the reform. Consequently, learning considerations challenge the conventional wisdom that sequencing should be such that favorable reform outcomes are revealed first. Finally, we provide an explanation for why the gradual reform strategy worked well for China, while this is much less so for Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries.

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Lecture by Mariana Mazzucato - The Value of Everything: making and taking in the global economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In her new book, The Value of Everything?, which she will discuss in this lecture, Mariana Mazzucato, argues that if we are to reform capitalism, we urgently need to rethink where wealth comes from. Which activities are creating it, which are extracting it, and which are destroying it? Answers to these questions are key if we want to replace the current parasitic system with a type of capitalism that is more sustainable, more symbiotic: that works for us all.


Mariana Mazzucato (@MazzucatoM?) is Professor in the Economics of Innovation and Public Value at University College London (UCL) where she is also Founder and Director of the Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose. She is author of the highly-acclaimed book The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths, and winner of the 2014 New Statesman SPERI Prize in Political Economy, the 2015 Hans-Matthöfer-Preis and the 2018 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought. She advises policymakers around the world on how to deliver 'smart', inclusive and sustainable growth. She was named as one of the '3 most important thinkers about innovation' in the New Republic
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/Events/2018/04/20180423t1830vOT/the-value-of-everything
 
Description Lecture by Ryan Avent on he Wealth of Humans: work, power, and status in the twenty-first century 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-First Century, Ryan Avent addressed the difficult questions about the increasing abundance of labour and what this means politically, economically and socially for every one of us. The traditional solutions - improved education, wage subsidies, universal basic income - will no longer work as they once did. In order to navigate our way across today's rapidly transforming economic landscape, Avent argues that we must radically reassess the very idea of how, and why, we work.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.centreformacroeconomics.ac.uk/Home.aspx
 
Description London Macroeconomics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact London Macroeconomics Workshop

Friday 19th April 2013

Ricardo L.T., Drayton House, Department of Economics, UCL

Organised By Morten Ravn, UCL
This event sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description London Macroeconomics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The workshop is aimed at fostering interaction and collaboration between macro researchers in the (greater) London area, and is jointly organized by the Bank of England, London Business School, London School of Economics, University College London and the newly established Center for Macroeconomics. The emphasis is on presenting new research including work in progress.

Generated discussion and future collaboration
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description London Macroeconomics Workshop - Tuesday 6 May 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact CFM aim towards fostering interaction and collaboration between macro researchers in the greater London area. It is jointly
organised by the Bank of England, Cambridge University, London Business School, London School of
Economics, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research and University College London,


More discussion and interaction within CFM and CFM and wider London based economists
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Luncheon Talk on Impact of European Financial Crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Europe is coming out of recession but very slowly. The southern countries are still deep in crisis, especially with respect to unemployment and job creation, and progress towards banking union in the Eurozone is stalling. What are the prospects of a full recovery in Europe and what kind of Europe will there be after the crisis? Sir Christopher Pissarides, the IAS Helmut & Anna Pao Sohmen Professor-at-Large of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, discussed the impact of the crisis on Europe and its trading partners.
This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description MACROPRUDENTIAL CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation given at Frankfurt, Bundesbank

Increased requests for further involvement and participation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description MMF Research Finance Group - Taking Fiscal Policy Seriously 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A one-day workshop which took place on 9th November 2017 in London, focused on fiscal policy, debt management and fiscal rules.

The event was sponsored by the Money, Macro and Finance Research Group (MMF), Nuffield College Centre for Applied Macro Policy (NuCamp), Centre For Macroeconomics (CFM) and the Centre for Applied Macro-Finance at the University of York (CAMF).

The keynote speech was given by Rupert Harrison (BlackRock, former Chief of Staff to George Osborne), with additional contributions from Roberto Perotti (Università Bocconi), Dimitri Vayanos (London Business School), Charlie Bean (London School of Economics), Robert Chote (Office for Budget Responsibility), Roel Beetsma (University of Amsterdam and European Fiscal Board), Laura van Geest (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), Elisa Faraglia (University of Cambridge), James Knight (UK Debt Management Office) and Michael Lamla (University of Essex).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://users.ox.ac.uk/~exet2581/Seriously_2017.pdf
 
Description Macroeconomic Stabilization and Economic Recovery after the Financial Crisis 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact CFM in collaboration with EABCN-INET and University of Cambridge hosted a conference Macroeconomic Stabilization and Economic Recovery after the Financial Crisis|.

Requests for further information and future conferences
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Making Markets Fair and Effective - Dr Minouche Shafik 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Centre for Macroeconomics, Department of Economics, Systemic Risk Centre and International Growth Centre public lecture

Date: Monday 27 October 2014
Time: 6.30-8pm
Venue: Old Theatre, Old Building
Speaker: Dr Minouche Shafik
Chair: Professor Lord Stern

The wholesale financial markets are some of the largest in the world, and matter to all of us. But public confidence in these markets has been rocked by a series of misconduct scandals in recent years, such as those affecting LIBOR. How far have the underlying causes of this misconduct been identified and tackled? And what is left to be done? Minouche Shafik, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, will discuss how the Fair and Effective Markets Review - launched by the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England this summer - is seeking to answer these questions.


Increased discussion around the lecture title
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/events/2014/10/20141027t1830vOT.aspx
 
Description Medicaid Insurance in Old Age - Mariacristina De Nardi 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Mariacristina De Nardi at numerous locations; University of St. Gallen, Queen Mary University, London, Mannheim University, Goethe University, Frankfurt, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, UCLouvain, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium and Bank of France, Paris This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards.

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Michael McMahon, Bank Underground Blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Bank of England "Bank Underground" blog article with Nick Butt and Rohan Churm, analysing quantatitive easing.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://bankunderground.co.uk/2015/07/17/did-quantitative-easing-boost-bank-lending/
 
Description Michael McMahon, CNBC Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact TV interview discussing Central Bank Communication
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Michael McMahon, ERC Clash of the Titans 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Winner of economic forecasting competition hosted by ESRC, sparking discussion and generating media interest.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.ercouncil.org/cottwinners/
 
Description Michael McMahon, Share Radio Guest 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Radio guest to discuss current economic issues
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Micro Foundations for Macro Finance 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEPR-CIFRA workshop, Amsterdam, 8-9 June, talk given by Wouter Den Haan which generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Migration and the UK Economy - August 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.



Requests for interviews from journalists, raised the profile of CFM and the work of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/migration-and-uk-economy-august-2014
 
Description Migration and the UK Economy - CFM Survey August 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
A. Armstrong, F. Caselli, J. Chadha, W. Den Haan


Requests for interviews from journalists, raised the profile of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/
 
Description Mismatch, Unemployment and Productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Individual seminar given under the Economist Visitor Programme at DG Enterprise, European Commission which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Modelling Migration in an OLG Framework: the Case of UK Migration Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Katerina Lisenkova which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
International Conference on Economic Modeling
Prague, Czech Republic
July 1-3, 2013

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Modelling the service sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact In the wake of the financial crisis output fell dramatically while inflation remained above its target and productivity collapsed relative to its previous trend. The fall in productivity relative to trend was particularly pronounced within the service sector, and then most particularly in certain subsectors such as 'Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities'. Given the weight of services in the economy - 75% in GDP and 50% in the CPI - it would seem that understanding how this sector works is crucial if we are to understand how the economy as a whole responds to shocks. But our standard macroeconomic models are not well suited to analysing this sector. In this paper, we try to address these deficiencies by modelling better the service sector and then examine the implications of trying to take certain features of the service sector into account. In order to do this, we first embarked on a series of structured visits to a set of firms that span the service sector. The motivation for doing this was that we could use our findings from these visits to get a better feel for how service-sector firms operate and, so, to be able to construct a model of a 'typical' service-sector firm. We then build a model taking into account what we learned from the visits and examined the effects of demand shocks within the model. We find that the model can explain some of the qualitative movements in productivity seen in response to the financial crisis

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Modelling the service sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at a number of venues by Stephen Millard including University of Bath, Univ. of Glasgow, Univ. of Exeter, Univ. of Leeds, Univ. of Manchester and Univ. of Bristol which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increased requests for more information and further presentations
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
 
Description Modelling the service sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact In the wake of the financial crisis output fell dramatically while inflation remained above its target and productivity collapsed relative to its previous trend. The fall in productivity relative to trend was particularly pronounced within the service sector, and then most particularly in certain subsectors such as 'Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities'. Given the weight of services in the economy - 75% in GDP and 50% in the CPI - it would seem that understanding how this sector works is crucial if we are to understand how the economy as a whole responds to shocks. But our standard macroeconomic models are not well suited to analysing this sector. In this paper, we try to address these deficiencies by modelling better the service sector and then examine the implications of trying to take certain features of the service sector into account. In order to do this, we first embarked on a series of structured visits to a set of firms that span the service sector. The motivation for doing this was that we could use our findings from these visits to get a better feel for how service-sector firms operate and, so, to be able to construct a model of a 'typical' service-sector firm. We then build a model taking into account what we learned from the visits and examined the effects of demand shocks within the model. We find that the model can explain some of the qualitative movements in productivity seen in response to the financial crisis

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default, Presentation by Michele Piffer which generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy, Leverage, and Default, talk given by M Piffer at the RES conference which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Money For Nothing: Inside the Federal Reserve 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Money For Nothing: Inside The Federal Reserve is the first film to take viewers inside America's central bank and reveal the impact of Fed policies - past, present and future - on our lives. As Ben Bernanke's tumultuous tenure comes to a close, Paul Volcker, Janet Yellen, and many of the world's best financial minds debate the decisions that led the global economy to the brink of collapse and ask whether we might be headed there again. Screening and panel discussion co-chaired by Wouter Den Haan this sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Money Macro and Finance Conference 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The 45th annual Money Macro and Finance Conference took place at Queen Mary, University of London from Wednesday 11th to Friday 13th September, 2013. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Mortgages and Monetary Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Mortgage loans are a striking example of a persistent nominal rigidity. As a result, under incomplete markets, monetary policy affects decisions through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt. Observed debt levels and payment to income ratios suggest the role of such loans in monetary transmission may be important. A general equilibrium model is developed to address this question. The transmission is found to be stronger under adjustable- than fixed-rate contracts. The source of impulse also matters: persistent inflation shocks have larger effects than cyclical fluctuations in inflation and nominal interest rates. Queries and discussion afterwards

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Mortgages and monetary policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Roman Sustek which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
Mortgage loans are a striking example of a persistent nominal rigidity. As a result, under incomplete markets, monetary policy affects decisions through the cost of new mortgage borrowing and the value of payments on outstanding debt. Observed debt levels and payment to income ratios suggest the role of such loans in monetary transmission may be important. A general equilibrium model is developed to address this question. The transmission is found to be stronger under adjustable- than fixed-rate contracts. The source of impulse also matters: persistent inflation shocks have larger effects than cyclical fluctuations in inflation and nominal interest rates

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Multi-Worker Firms and Size Adjustment Costs 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Participants in your research and patient groups
Results and Impact Presentation given at LSE Macroeconomics Work in Progress seminar by Markus Rieglier

Increased requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Multi-Worker Firms and Size Adjustment Costs - University of Manchester 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Talk given by Markus Riegler at the University of Manchester which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description NIESR Conference - THE FUTURE OF HOUSING FINANCE in collaboration with CFM and ESRC 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Promoted questions and discussion

Promoted questions, discussions and requests for more activities of this nature
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description NIESR Estimates of Monthly GDP - August 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY GDP

6th August 2013

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in July after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June 2013. These estimates suggest a narrowing of the UK's large negative output gap. Consumer spending growth has underpinned the recent gains in economic momentum, in spite of the continued decline of real consumer wages. Our monthly GDP estimates are consistent with this pattern continuing in the three months ending in July 2013.

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description NIESR Estimates of Monthly GDP - July 2013 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

ESTIMATES OF MONTHLY GDP

on 9th July 2013

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output grew by 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in June after growth of 0.6 per cent in the three months ending in May 2013. These estimates suggest that economic growth accelerated from 0.3 per cent per quarter in 2013Q1 to 0.6 per cent in 2013Q2, largely due to the performance of the private service sector. Production sector output has been flat since the rebound in February 2013. Nevertheless, this translates into a modest positive contribution to GDP growth in 2013Q2.
This sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description NIESR's multi-country model NiGEM 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Educational lecture given by Dawn Holland of NIESR to CFM members. Dawn explained and discussed key features of the model. This sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description NIGEM Explanation and Discussion 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation by Dawn Holland at LSE, which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
NIGEM is the model that is used by NIESR to make forecasts and policy recommendations.
The purpose of the seminar is to narrow the gap between researchers at universities (following a more abstract approach) and researchers at policy institutions (following an approach that can arguably be more directly applied to give advice to policy makers).

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description National Living Wage and the UK economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.

The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).

Sparked questions, discussion and debate afterwards, lead to increased interest in the work of CFM and increased interest in related subject areas
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/national-living-wage-and-uk-economy
 
Description Negative Interest Rate Conference, co-hosted by Barclays and the Centre for Macroeconomics. 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Over the past few years, several of Europe's central banks cut key interest rates below zero, and Japan's central bank recently followed. This year, some 500 million people in a quarter of the world economy live with interest rates below zero. Bringing together the world's preeminent scholars and economists, the conference explored the financial impact of negative interest rates on the economy, and the consequences of negative rates for real investment, saving, and consumer behaviour.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description On the Determinants of Slum Formation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Tiago Cavalcanti at the SAET Conference, Brazilian Society Conference, Paris, Foz do Iguacu. This presentation sparked questions and promoted discussion

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description On the Optimality of Financial Repression - Pat Kehoe (UCL) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact CEP/CFM/LSE Money-Macro Workshop on 11 November 2014 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards



Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description On the Relationship between Mobility, Population Growth and Capital Spending in the United States - Ecole Polytechnique, Paris 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Questions and requests for more information

Higher than expected interest, requests for more information and further discussion
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Open macro Macroeconomics - Kiel Institute 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti at the Kiel Institute Summer school which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Open macro Macroeconomics - University of Cambridge 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti to central bankers and post doctoral students at the University of Cambridge. This presentation stimulated lively discussion and requests for more information

After the presentation there were requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Optimal Learning on Climate Change: Why Climate Skeptics Should Reduce Emissions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given at Tinbergen Institute Amsterdam by T Willems

Increased requests for further information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Optimal Learning on Climate Change: Why Climate Skeptics Should Reduce Emissions 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The 20th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE) held in Toulouse, France, on June 26-29, 2013. This sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Optimal unemployment insurance over the business cycle 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given by Pascal Michaillat at Mannheim University which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Outlook for the UK economy (NIESR's May 2013 Review) on Today Programme, BBC Radio 4. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact BBC Radio 4 interview with Simon Kirby

Interaction, requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Outlook for the UK economy and changes to monetary policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact TV interview given by Simon Kirby to Dukascopy TV, Switzerland which sparked questions and discussion

This lead to an increase in requests for further participation, information and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Outlook for the UK economy and what to expect from the arrival of the new Bank of England Governor 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact TV Channel Russia 24 interview with Simon Kirby

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Outlook for the UK economy, presentation to the Low Pay Commission 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given by Simon Kirby to the Low Pay Commission which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013,2014
 
Description Panel on Scotland's currency options - Angus Armstrong 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact presentation given by Angus Armstrong at the Festival of Politics in Edinburgh on 16th August 2014 which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Paris Conference on Goods Markets, the Macroeconomy and Policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact CFM in conjunction with ANR, Bank of France, ERC, and SciencesPo held a Paris Conference on Goods Markets, the Macroeconomy and Policy

more interaction and collaboration on macro issues
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Pension Systems and Economic Growth 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Delivered at 7th National Meeting of Social Security, Santiago, Chile, August 8, 2013, The role of the state in modern societies
• Key challenges in the design of pensions
• Labor market challenges
• World economic performance and prospects
This talk by Chris Pissarides sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Persistent Output Gaps: Causes and Policy Remedies (Cambridge University) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Study participants or study members
Results and Impact Two day series of presentations stimulating debate and dialogue among academics.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.cepr.org/1855
 
Description Policy Issues Affecting the Bank of England: inflation control and social choice - Lecture by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, followed by a discussion and Q&A with Amartya Sen, Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University, charied by Professor Lord Stern. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A lecture by Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, followed by a discussion and Q&A with Amartya Sen, Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University, charied by Professor Lord Stern.

Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013. After a thirteen-year career with Goldman Sachs in its London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto offices, Mark Carney was appointed Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada in August 2003. In November 2004, he left the Bank of Canada to become Senior Associate Deputy Minister of Finance. He held this position until his appointment as Governor of the Bank of Canada on 1 February 2008. Mark Carney served as Governor of the Bank of Canada and Chairman of its Board of Directors until 1 June 2013.

Amartya Sen is Thomas W Lamont University Professor and Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University. He is the recipient of the 1998 Nobel Prize in Economics and an LSE Honorary Fellow.

Nicholas Stern is the Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the LSE and is currently the President of the British Academy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/pla...
 
Description Political Accountability and Policy Experimentation: Why to Elect Left-Handed Politicians 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact The 2013 RES Conference was held at Royal Holloway University of London, 3 to 5 April 2013. Keynote lectures were given by Raquel Fernandez (New York University), Matthew Jackson (Stanford), Charles Manski (Northwestern) and Richard Blundell (UCL).

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Political Consequences of Natural-Resource Windfalls 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Francesco Caselli which sparked questions and discussion afterwards
We study theoretically and empirically whether natural resource windfalls affect political regimes. We document the following regularities. Natural resource windfalls have no effect on the political system when they occur in democracies. However, windfalls have significant political consequences in autocracies. In particular, when an autocratic country receives a positive shock to its flow of resource rents it responds by becoming even more autocratic. Furthermore, there is heterogeneity in the response of autocracies. In deeply entrenched autocracies the effect of windfalls on politics is virtually nil, while in moderately entrenched autocracies windfalls significantly exacerbate the autocratic nature of the political system.

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Political Economy Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presenter at Political Economy Conference at the University of Pennsylvania

Lead to increased networking and visits to CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Politics after Brexit and Trump: Rick Pildes in conversation with Mervyn King 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact A year of unpredictable political upheavals in the industrialised world promises an interesting period ahead. What are the lessons from Brexit and the Trump election for our democracy?

Richard H. Pildes is the Sudler Family Professor of Constitutional Law at the New York University Law School. He is one of the nation's leading scholars of constitutional law and a specialist in legal issues affecting democracy.

Mervyn King was Governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013, and is currently School Professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Lord King was made a life peer in 2013, and appointed by the Queen a Knight of the Garter in 2014.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/pla...
 
Description Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Morten Ravn as part of a discussion group on the topic Precautionary Saving and Aggregate Demand which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation by Pontus Rendahl - Goethe University Frankfurt 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation made by Pontus Rendahl at the University of Singapore

Requests for more information
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentation by Prof. Numan Kurtulmus 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Prof. Numan Kurtulmus, Vice-Chair of AK Party, Turkey, is in charge of Economic Affairs. He discussed his ideas on the transformation for a just and democratic system in Turkey.

This talk was moderated by Prof. Wouter den Haan and co-sponsored by the Centre for Macroeconomics. It generated questions and discussion afterwards

Increase in requests for further information, participation and involvement
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2013
 
Description Presentation on Productivity and Long-Run growth in Brazil 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Tiago Cavalcanti gave this presentation on numerous occasions at the presidential program of the political campaign of Marina Silva - Brasil, this lead to several interviews to Brazilian and international media. The talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Increased requests about further participation and involvement and plans for future related activities
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentations (3) on effects of liquidity enhancing transfers - various locations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti at various locations; CIM CFM UCL and CSEF Conference "Aggregate Fluctuations: Causes and Consequences" Siracusa - June 13/14, 2014, Bank of Estonia, Science Po Paris. This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Requests for more information and future presentations
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Presentations (6) of work on competitiveness and stabilization policy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Giancarlo Corsetti at various locations; National University of Singapore, London Business School, Banco de Espana, Universidade Nova de Lisbona, Yale University, New York Fed. This talk sparked questions and discussion afterwards

There was a higher than expected interest, requests for more information and further participation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British Businesses 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given by Chiarra Rosazza Bondibene at the Work and Pensions Group Annual conference, University of Sheffield, which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British Businesses - University of Manchester 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at the University of Manchester by Chiarra Rosazza Bondibene which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Productivity Dynamics in the Great Stagnation: Evidence from British Businesses - University of Sheffield 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.)
Results and Impact Presentation given at the Work and Pensions Group Annual conference, University of Sheffield by Chiarra Rosazza Bondibene which sparked questions and discussion afterwards

Deeper relationships, more discussion, greater ability to impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK - CFM Survey April 2014 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The monthly CFM survey informs the public about the views held by prominent UK-based economists on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. The survey sheds light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.

Requests for interviews from journalists, raised the profile of CFM and the work of CFM
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
URL http://cfmsurvey.org/surveys/prospects-economic-growth-uk-april-2014
 
Description Prospects for UK Growth - A New Survey 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Media report as a response to the New CFM survey, this generated lots of interest in the work of CFM and the CFM survey

Requests for further information and participation
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2014
 
Description Public Lecture by Ricardo Reis - The New Conventional Central Bank 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Professor Ricardo Reis gives his inaugural lecture as A W Phillips Professor of Economics (A W Phillips Chair in Empirical Macroeconomics).

Central banks in 2018 look nothing like they did in 2006, Ricardo Reis questions whether should they go back to the old days, or aim to being very different by 2030?

A current topic of active debate in monetary economics today is how to handle "normalization". The premise is that the last decade monetary policy was "exceptional" in the response to the financial crises, and over the next few year it should go back to normal. This lecture will discuss what that new normal should be. Professor Reis will argue that we have learned a great deal from the many experiments of the past ten years, and that these lessons carry over to normal times.

Ricardo Reis is the A W Phillips Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. He is a consultant to central banks around the world, and is former the chief editor of the Journal of Monetary Economics.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/economics/events-and-seminars/inaugural-lecture-ricardo-reis/the-new-convention...
 
Description Public Lecture, A Conversation with Ben Bernanke 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Audience of around 450 attended public discussion, which followed up in a question and answer session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/publicEvents/events/2015/10/20151028t1830vLSE.aspx
 
Description Public Lecture, Are Welfare Programmes Just Keeping People Out of Work? An Economist's Take on Benefits Street, Camille Landais 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Audience of around 200 attended public discussion, which followed up in a question and answer session.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
 
Description Public Lecture, Clear and Present Challenges to the Chinese Economy, Keyu Jin 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Audie