1. Modelling the economic impacts of "Brexit". 2. Free movement: economic and social impacts, past and future

Lead Research Organisation: National Institute of Economic & Soc Res
Department Name: National Institute of Economic & Soc Res

Abstract

The research will focus on two key areas:

- Free movement of people within the European Union; currently the single most controversial aspect of the UK's membership . This will cover the economic, social and political impact of intra-EU migration on the UK; potential future impacts, if the UK remains within the EU, and if it does not, including new modelling of the long-term economic and fiscal impacts: migration policy options for the UK if it leaves the UK as EU; comparative analysis of the impact of free movement on other EU countries.

- Addressing the key question of the economic impact of a possible UK exit, through the specification, elaboration and quantification of possible future economic scenarios for the UK, inside or outside the EU. This will make use where possible of NIESR's global macroeconometric model, NiGEM, and cover as far as possible the different economic aspects of EU membership (trade, regulation, capital mobility, free movement, budgetary spending, etc). In addition we will identify evidence gaps where further research could advance our understanding of these impacts

I, and NIESR, are particularly well placed to undertake this work.

- I have been active in immigration research for 15 years, and was responsible for the first major UK government study of the impacts of immigration (Portes, 2001), as well as the first analysis of the labour market impacts of EU migration (Portes and French, 2006); as a senior civil servant, I was closely involved in policy decisions relating to free movement in government; and I am now the most prominent academic commenting publicly on immigration issues, appearing frequently in both broadcast and print media.

- NIESR is the only UK academic institution which possesses a fully specified structural econometric model of the global economy, incorporating country models of the UK and all significant EU economies; NiGEM has previously been used to estimate the transition costs and economic dynamics of UK exit (Pan and Young, 2004); it is used by the Bank of England, ECB, IMF, OECD and several other European central banks for simulation purposes. NiGEM is particularly well suited for the type of simulation analysis required for credible modelling of the potential impacts of EU exit across a number of dimensions.

- NIESR has an excellent network of contacts among policymakers (HMT, OBR, BIS, BoE) and the business community (CBI, FSB, etc) who will both help inform the research and will be key audiences for the output. We also have links with comparable research institutions elsewhere in the EU and with policymakers in Brussels.

- NIESR's record on the Future of Scotland fellowship shows our capacity to produce timely, objective, academically high quality research and to disseminate it widely to policymakers, media and the general public. Monique Ebell, Angus Armstrong's co-author for much of the Scotland work, will also work on this project.

The outputs will be a combination of synthesis of existing work across a number of disciplines and new research, quantitative and qualitative. Building on NIESR's existing networks and strong track record, as well as my own personal media profile, we envisage a very active programme of dissemination through both traditional and innovative channels. NIESR is extremely well placed to undertake an active programme of dissemination of the outputs not just of this research but of the wider work of the ESRC programme. Given both our geographic location and our close contact with economic policymakers (we have excellent links with the Treasury, BIS, Bank of England, DWP, and OBR) we could serve as a hub for engaging policymakers with the programme.

If funded, we would also look to undertake further work in cooperation with research partners elsewhere in the EU, and possibly in the US.

Planned Impact

Who will benefit and how?

Policymakers and public policy commentators (in particular informed journalists) will benefit from:

- access to objective, informed summaries of the research evidence on the impact of free movement;
- new research on labour market impacts;
- an objective assessment of the implications of possible alternative future scenarios for immigration policy.
- identification of the possible channels by which EU exit might impact the UK scenario
- the development of different possible scenarios for the UK economy post-exit and the quantification, under different scenarios, of possible economic impacts

This will facilitate a better informed public debate on the economic and social impacts of UK membership of the EU, in particular in relation to free movement; and the potential economic impacts of a UK exit.

University and school teachers and students (economics, political science, international relation, etc) will benefit from the creation of accessible, objective resources on these topics that can be used as teaching materials/aids.

Employers and businesses (private and public sector) will benefit from high quality, objective analysis about the likely impacts of EU exit under different scenarios; and from analysis of the impact of free movement and/or changes in immigration policy on labour market structures and outcomes.

Policymakers and researchers elsewhere in the EU will benefit from analysis of the UK policy debate.

What will we do?

NIESR is extremely well placed to undertake an active programme of dissemination of the outputs not just of this research but of the wider work of the ESRC programme. Given both our geographic location and our close contact with economic policymakers (we have excellent links with the Treasury, BIS, Bank of England, DWP, and OBR) we could serve as a hub for engaging policymakers with the programme.

Specifically, for this research, we would envisage the following activities:

- at least 3 significant NIESR publications as detailed above, covering the labour market impacts of intra-EU migration, the longer term economic and social impacts, and the potential economic impacts of EU exit. Each would be press released and accompanied by either a NIESR blogpost or (more likely) a press article authored by me summarising the findings. Further media interest is likely;

- a series of 6-8 shorter papers/blogposts, focusing on the key individual economic issues relating to EU exit. These might form the basis of a series of lunchtime seminars for researchers and policymakers.

- a specific programme of dissemination for undergraduates and A-level students. We will ensure that some of our materials were useful as teaching aids, and work with existing networks (eg Tutor4U) to disseminate them in schools and universities.

- innovative approaches to engaging the wider public. For example, as part of our role in the Future of Scotland programme, we produced a video setting out in an amusing and accessible format, but objectively and accurately, the issues surrounding Scotland's currency options. This was highly successful and engaged a far wider audience than normal for high quality academic research. We would plan to produce 1 or 2 further videos summarising the results of our research here.

- seminars and other activities in Brussels and elsewhere in the EU. These topics will become of increasing interest to policymakers and analysts in Brussels and the wider EU. We would, working with partners, look to disseminate it widely.

In addition, my existing status as a prominent media commentator on both immigration/free movement and wider economic issues, including the economic implications of the UK's status in the EU, will be further enhanced by the Fellowship: I will have numerous opportunities to impact directly on the public debate via the broadcast and print media, primarily in the UK but also in other EU countries and possibly th

Publications

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Related Projects

Project Reference Relationship Related To Start End Award Value
ES/N003667/1 01/05/2015 31/12/2016 £431,075
ES/N003667/2 Transfer ES/N003667/1 01/01/2017 30/06/2017 £77,682
 
Title Video entitled "Changing the debate: video animation on the impact of immigration on the UK " 
Description Opinion polls have shown for some time that the public sees immigration as one of the most important issues facing Britain (Ipsos Mori, 2015). At the same time, public understanding of evidence on the economic impacts of immigration is poor and strongly influenced by the media. This in turn affects the quality and content of public debate and the policy formulation process. This video presents evidence of the economic benefits of immigration to the UK and to London, but acknowledges that there has been some impact on pay, and that there are 'winners and losers'. It is targeted at a wide audience who lack accurate information about migration impacts from which to form their opinions. It is intended to stimulate thinking and debate. For details of the sources used in this video, please visit the NIESR website here: http://tinyurl.com/j5e47nd 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2016 
Impact This video has generated huge impact on social media and within the press and has led to many follow-up interviews with wider media audiences (Guardian, BBC) 
URL http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/29/eu-migration-debate-worth-having-but-must-be-ba...
 
Title Video entitled "What's Up With Benefit Tourism?" 
Description This video provides an accessible and humorous account of the issues surrounding the Prime Minister's negotiations with the European Commission, focused on migrants' access to welfare benefits. 
Type Of Art Film/Video/Animation 
Year Produced 2015 
Impact The Financial Times picked up on the video and reported on, along with a large number of impressions on Twitter 
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmdz-jtmnKE
 
Description Key research outputs from the Fellowship have been:

• New research on the labour market impacts of EU migration. This has led to a number of publications, including Heather Rolfe's paper on employers' attitudes to EU migration

- New research on possible policy options for UK immigration policy after Brexit; this had led to several publications, including two papers by me in the National Institute Economic Review

- New research on the impacts of post-Brexit migration policy on the UK economy, including growth, productivity and wages, by me and Giuseppe Forte published in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy


• Macroeconomic modelling work on the impact of changes to UK migration policy as a result of Brexit, under different assumptions about post Brexit options for new migration policy regimes/scenarios, has begun. This will also produce quantitative impact estimates of the impact of Brexit on key UK economic variables.

- New research on the impacts on the UK economy of different possible trading relationships between the UK and the EU and between the UK and third countries, by Monique Ebell
-New research on low skilled EU migration in key sectors of teh UK labour market, by Heather Rolfe

All this research is still very much ongoing and there will be further outputs, including more detailed published research papers
Exploitation Route Our findings have been and will be used extensively by the media, commentators, government and campaigners in the run-up to the EU referendum; in post-referendum debate in the UK and elsewhere in the EU; and in the UK's preparations for the Article 50 negotiations and other economic policy decisions.

The Government's recent announcements on post-Brexit immigration policy, in particular the introduction of a system that treats EU and non-EU migrants for work purposes on a comparable basis, reflects the discussion in the November 2016 paper "Immigration after Brexit".
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Construction,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail

URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/research-theme/uk-europe-and-devolution
 
Description Work supported by the Fellowship, and the availability of my time, has led directly to the following; • Considerable coverage in the press and other media, with well over 500 mentions in the national press, over 100 in the international press, and numerous appearances on the BBC (both TV and radio) and Sky. • In particular, my Freedom of Information request for administrative data on EU migrants (National Insurance number registrations, and the numbers paying tax or National Insurance or claiming benefits) led to front page coverage in most national papers, and direct intervention from Number 10 Downing Street. Eventually, both the Office for National Statistics and HMRC published further detailed statistics on these questions. This additional information, which was essential to inform the public debate on a key aspect of the government's renegotiation, is a direct result of my work supported by the Fellowship. - Monique Ebell's work on trade has been extensivelly cited in the press, Parliamentary Committees and has been the subject of great interest from governmetn departments. The central findings with respect to the relative impact of trade deals with non-EU countries and change to trade with the EU have been widely and extensively cited - Heather Rolfe's work on low skilled migration has been very well received with great interest fromt the relevant sectors • I have written numerous blogs (on the NIESR and UKandEU websites), which have been well read (2-4,000 views for most on the NIESR website) as well as press articles (Observer, Guardian, New Statesman, Telegraph and others). - I have testified before numerous Parliamentary Committees, including the Treasury Committee, the Committee on Exiting the EU, the Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and the Lords Home Affairs Committee; and my work supported by the Fellowship has been cited repeatedly in several Committee reports - considerable political interest from MPs on both sides of the referendum debate, including extensive discussion at meetings with Conserative, Liberal Democrat, Labour and SNP MPs The Government's recent announcements on post-Brexit immigration policy, in particular the introduction of a system that treats EU and non-EU migrants for work purposes on a comparable basis, reflects the discussion in the November 2016 paper "Immigration after Brexit". I have been particularly careful to ensure that my research and public commentary is neither biased, nor seen to be biased, towards "Remain" or "Leave". I have had private meetings with representatives of all the campaigns. In particular, my research on EU migration, benefits, and the government's renegotiation, while very relevant to the political debate [, is recognised as unbiased and based on the facts and evidence, and has been cited repeatedly by both sides of the argument. In addition, I have critiqued and commented on the often dubious economic arguments and statistics used by both sides. I would also note that in practice the very high demand has meant that I have spent well over the time actually funded by the Fellowship (40% of my time)
First Year Of Impact 2015
Sector Agriculture, Food and Drink,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail
Impact Types Societal,Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Influence on government approach to EU renegotiation
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Frequently consulted by policymakers inside government on issues relating to UK renegotiation, especially in respect of migration and benefits. Testimony and advice to Parliamentary Select Committees.
 
Description Parliamentary Select Committee testimony: Brexit Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/1071/107102.htm
 
Description "EU workers in the food industry" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on "The World this Weekend" with Heather Rolfe 17th April 2016
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description "Employers at risk of legal action over Brexit" newspaper article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Interview with Heather Rolfe for the Financial Times on 12th August 2017 on the threat of legal action to employers over Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description "Employers shocked by Brexit want a say in future immigration policy" blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog for UK in a Changing Europe by Heather Rolfe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://ukandeu.ac.uk/employers-shocked-by-brexit-want-a-say-in-future-immigration-policy/
 
Description "Flexible Friends: Why employers hire Eastern European migrants in order to grow" blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog by Heather Rolfe for LSE
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2016/06/15/flexible-friends-why-employers-hire-eastern-european-migran...
 
Description "How to cope with Brexit: an employer's guide" blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog for LSE by Heather Rolfe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/how-to-cope-with-brexit-an-employers-guide/
 
Description "The 250,000 EU migrants that weren't counted" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Piece in the Daily Mail with Heather Rolfe
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisismoney.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fart...
 
Description "Turkeys and Christmas: EU prop up Britain's food and drink industry" blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog by Heather Rolfe for LSE Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.lse.ac.uk%2Fbrexit%2F2016%2F...
 
Description "What Employers Want to Know about Brexit" blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Blog by Heather Rolfe in Prospect magaizne
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://emea01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.prospectmagazine.co.uk%2Fecono...
 
Description Always crashing in the same car? An "emergency brake" on EU migration 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog on the UK-EU deal negotiation: analysis of the so called 'Emergency Brake'. It sparked lots of discussion among different audiences and lots of interest, especially within the social media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Analysing the UK's deal: immigration, free movement, and benefits 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog: analysis of the PM's EU deal
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/analysing-uk%E2%80%99s-deal-immigration-free-movement-and-benefits#.Vt20...
 
Description BBC Radio 4 - Radio Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Radio Interview on BBC Radio 4 Today Programme - Interview used by other BBC Radio programmes - Contribution to the pre-refererndum debate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description BBC Radio 5 Live - Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Live Radio Interview - Commenting economic data post EU referendum
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description BBC World Service Radio - Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Radio interview on BBC World commenting the Referendum outcome
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description BBC4 The Briefing Room 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed by David Aaronovitch on BBC4's programme "The Briefing Room" on Trump's trade policies, but also touching on the impact of Brexit and the rise of protectionism more widely.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08cqqrh
 
Description Blog by Heather Rolfe entitled "We need facts, not fiction, in the immigration debate" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Inform the debate on immigration by explaining the need for detailed and accurate statistics and dissemination
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/we-need-facts-not-fiction-immigration-debate#.VuEwkWAnyM9
 
Description Brexit risks 60% drop in service sector exports 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview with FT's Alan Beattie on Brexit and Trade
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.ft.com/content/bfe51444-9f70-11e6-86d5-4e36b35c3550
 
Description Brexit: A View from the Epicentre 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Gave a talk entitled "Hard Brexit, Hard Landing?" at a high-level conference on "Brexit: What Impact on Member States?" organised by the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels and attended by policymakers from the European Commission and from other member states.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.ceps.eu/events/brexit-what-impact-member-states
 
Description Data on EU migration would be too expensive to "collate", government says 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Blog on the UK govt data on EU migration. It has reached a wide audience, especially through social media. Huge interest on the topic from the media. It has become one of the main stories in the last month, making headlines on the main national newspaper and TV networks.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/data-eu-migration-would-be-too-expensive-collate-government-says#.Vt216P...
 
Description EU Customs Union: The Pros and Cons of Staying In 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Podcast on the impact on the UK economy of leaving the customs union. 68 listens after only 6 days.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://soundcloud.com/niesr1938
 
Description Five Brexit challenges as Britain leaps into the unknown 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Martin Wolf quoted our research on Brexit and Trade
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.ft.com/content/6e3aeb4a-ec65-11e6-930f-061b01e23655
 
Description Guardian: 'No deal' Brexit would mean £6bn in extra costs for UK exporters 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Guardian piece quotes Monique Ebell's research on Brexit and trade.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/20/no-deal-brexit-would-mean-6bn-in-extra-costs-for-uk-...
 
Description Hard Brexit, Hard Landing? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact This NIESR blog piece made the research presented in "Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade" accessible to a more general audience. I understand that several journalists who cited my work became aware of it through this blog piece.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/hard-brexit-hard-landing#.WMltfW82AdU
 
Description Heather Rolfe interview with the Economist, "Tunnels and Channels: the great migration from the east has entered a second, different, phase" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Discussion of the implications and challenges faced by eastern European migrants
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693639-great-migration-east-has-entered-second-different-pha...
 
Description How Helpful are New Trade Deals for Softening the Blow of Hard Brexit? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Gave a talk at a conference entitled "International Trade Agreements after Brexit: Establishing the Facts," organised by Alistair Milne and attended by policymakers from the Bank of England, HM Treasury, Department for International Trade, BEIS and other government agencies and departments. My talk was on the impact of leaving the single market on trade, and the potential for new free trade agreements with non-EU countries to compensate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/news/events/2016/brexit-conference.html
 
Description Immigration and the UK-EU Relationship 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact A high-level one-day conference that brought together academic researchers and policymakers. It focused on economic, social and political aspects of immigration in the context of the UK-EU relationship; and the implications both for the EU referendum and for UK immigration policy after the referendum, whatever the result. It sparked discussion afterwards with lots of media engaged on the subject, request for interviews etc.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2015
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/event/103#.Vt2f5vmLQdU
 
Description Immigration policy after the EU Referendum: economic impacts 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Media briefing presenting findings from research related to EU referendum, which was extensively quoted in the news
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Interview by Heather Rolfe with City AM "Think Tank NIESR criticises quality of facts in UK immigration debate" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Put forward argument for more detailed debate on the poor use of statistics and data when discussing immigration in the Brexit debate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.cityam.com/234091/think-tank-niesr-criticises-quality-of-facts-in-uk-immigration-debate
 
Description Interview on "Newsnight" discussing Brexit and automation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Interview on Newsnight by Heather Rolfe discussing Brexit and automation on 12 December 2016
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Interview with Associated Press 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Telephone interview with Associated Press on Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description Interview with BBC Regions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed by BBC Regions for a piece on the economic future of the UK after Brexit. Segments of this 20 minute interview were disseminated to the BBC regional radio programmes across the country.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Interview with Swedish Public Television 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact I was interviewed by SVT (Swedish public broadcaster) Brussels correspondent Ulrika Bergsten on the economic impact of Brexit on the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description LBC Radio Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact radio Interview at LBC - Commenting first economic data post referendum
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description LSE Commission on the future of Britain in Europe 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The LSE Commission on the Future of Britain in Europe aims to inform the national debate on Britain's membership of the European Union, with high quality, evidence-based and balanced analysis.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.lse.ac.uk/europeanInstitute/LSE-Commission/LSE-Commission-on-the-Future-of-Britain-in-Eur...
 
Description La Vanguardia - Interview 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Interview for one of the main Spanish newspaper, 'La Vanguardia', on different aspects of the UK-EU membership/referendum
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description May needs to keep us away from the cliff edge 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Sunday Times' David Smith discusses and quotes our findings on Brexit and trade
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-needs-to-keep-us-away-from-the-cliff-edge-r93nqtszm
 
Description NIESR's latest research and quarterly forecasts on the UK post EU Referendum 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Presenting research findings at press conference four months after EU Referendum
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description National Institute Economic Review - The Implications of Leaving the EU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Presenting pre-EU Referendum analysis of impact of leaving the EU in a press conference attended by media and policymakers
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description New Statesman article by Heather Rolfe 9th February 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Article discussing the the need for detailed and accurate statistics to inform the immigration debate in the UK
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/02/small-dose-facts-could-transform-britains-immi...
 
Description Opinion piece in The Guardian "An EU migration debate is worth having. But the government must give us the facts" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact To have an open discussion about why the UK government has not released certain data that would shed new light on real migration figures and inform further debate
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/29/eu-migration-debate-worth-having-but-must-be-ba...
 
Description PLP International Trade Committee 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I was asked to speak to the Parliamentary Labour Party International Trade Committee, chaired by Catherine McKinnell MP (Newcastle North). I presented a summary of my research into the impact on the UK economy of leaving the single market, as well as the potential for compensating for lost trade via new free trade agreements with third countries.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description RTS (Swiss National TV) interview with Heather Rolfe 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Discussion of Migration, Benefit Tourism and Brexit with a Swiss TV company, giving a perspective on the current debates in the UK.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description The Economics of the UK's EU Membership 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Monique Ebell chaired a session entitled "The UK and the EU Budget" at NIESR's conference on 23 February 2016. Speakers were David Phillips (IFS), Sascha Becker (Warwick University) and John Springford (Centre for European Reform).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
 
Description The Long and the Short of it: What Price UK Exit from the EU? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact This blog made the findings in our more technical assessments of the short- and long-term economic impact of Brexit more accessible to a journalists and to a wider audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/long-and-short-it-what-price-uk-exit-eu#.WMlvH282AdU
 
Description The Staggers: The 2017 Budget will force Philip Hammond to confront the Brexit effect 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Chris Leslie (Chair of the PLP Treasury Committee) quotes NIESR research on Brexit and trade.
Chris became aware of this work from Monique Ebell's talk to the PLP International Trade group in December 2016.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2017/02/2017-budget-will-force-philip-hammond-confront...
 
Description Town hall event on the UK and EU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact This was an 'Ask the expert'event. The town hall event offered the people of Norwich, Norfolk and the surrounding area the opportunity to put their questions to leading specialists.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL http://ukandeu.ac.uk/event/town-hall-event-on-the-uk-and-eu/
 
Description Trading Places: Preparing Ourselves for Life Outside the Single Market 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Podcast on the economic impact on the UK of leaving the single market.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://soundcloud.com/niesr1938
 
Description Will New Trade Deals Soften the Blow of Hard Brexit? 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog which compared the potential increases in trade due to new free trade agreements with the BRIICS and the Anglosphere to the expected decreases in trade from leaving the single market. This blog helped communicate the results in an accompanying piece in the National Institute Economic Review to a wider audience, in particular to journalists. The blog and the accompanying article were mentioned quite prominently in the media, and continue to receive social media and media mentions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-new-trade-deals-soften-blow-hard-brexit#.WMlwMm82AdU