Recruited by Referendum: Party Membership Energised

Lead Research Organisation: University of Aberdeen
Department Name: Sch of Social Science

Abstract

Party membership in the UK and across the Western world has been in precipitous decline. Yet, since the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014, the pro-independence parties - the Scottish National Party and the Scottish Green Party - have experienced a huge surge in membership. The scale and pace of this is exceptional. Before the referendum, the Scottish National Party (SNP) reported a membership of approximately 26,000; now the party has over 100,000 members which, at close to 2.5% of the Scottish electorate, makes it the kind of mass party that the UK has not seen for decades. The Scottish Greens have experienced a similar dramatic increase in membership, with numbers rising from 1,500 before the September vote to more than 9,000 by March 2015. In a matter of a few short months, the SNP and Greens have become parties made up predominantly new recruits. And this at a time when, at home and abroad, political engagement through parties appeared to be in irreversible decline.

Our aim in this project is to examine the causes and consequences of this surge in party membership. We will explore how both the nature of the referendum campaign and its eventual outcome combined to generate such an unforeseen development. Our research questions derive mainly from academic theories of political participation and activism and will lead us to explore the political background, identities and motivations of the party members. Why did so many apparently turn from a grassroots and often unorthodox campaign to a more conventional form of participation? Are they reshaping the experience of party membership or is it reshaping them? And what impact has the sudden influx had on the parties themselves? Through a combination of mass surveys of party members and in-depth interviews with leading figures in the parties and campaign groups, we will address these and many other questions. Surveys of members of the SNP and Scottish Greens, timed to take place just over a year from the surge in membership, will allow us to explore members' involvement in and perceptions of the independence referendum, and to explore their experiences as party members, including the ways in which members participate, and how the experience of membership has confirmed or confounded expectations. Crucially, the study will involve comparison of the new recruits with established members, allowing us to determine whether the parties have attracted a new and different generation of political activists. Interviews with party and campaigning elites will focus on the consequences of these events for party organisations and on the relationship between the national movement for change - which is more like an informal social movement - and formal party membership.

The Scottish Referendum and its aftermath have attracted widespread attention, within but also well beyond academia. We are keen to engage with as wide an audience as possible and to contribute to party and public debates on political participation and constitutional change. The parties themselves will be central to this research from the outset, via detailed consultation on the topics of the survey and then discussion and response to its findings. And the use of an online survey method will enable rapid preparation and communication of results. These will be made available to the parties, academic researchers, media observers and other interested parties via a series of briefing papers, discussion workshops, blog posts, and presentations at party meetings and academic conferences. The research team has an established record of publication with leading journals and university presses, and the climax of the project will be a co-authored book.

Planned Impact

The impact of our previous research on these two parties was considerable, shaping internal party strategy as well as being widely reported in the media. Our plans build on that track record of dissemination and on our excellent working relationships with key figures in four main clusters of audiences and beneficiaries:
1. The parties themselves
2. Policymakers/third sector organisations (notably bodies seeking to boost participation, such as the Electoral Commission in Scotland and the Democratic Society)
3. Campaigning organisations (notably movements within the referendum's Yes campaign, such as the National Collective and Women for Independence)
4. The mass media (notably at BBC Scotland, STV and a wide range of newspapers)

Our three key pathways to impact are:
-- co-producing the survey questionnaire with these impact partners
-- dissemination plans geared to their specific interests and requirements
-- using a diverse range of media to circulate our findings and insights to the widest possible audience

There are also three key stages in our impact plans:

1. Designing the surveys
The value of these surveys is much enhanced by cooperation with the parties themselves. One key means of fostering that collaboration is to give them - and our other impact partners - the opportunity to recommend themes and questions for the survey. As well as ongoing consultation via e-mail and Skype, we will host a questionnaire design workshop in Aberdeen in December 2015 for interested parties. Those attending will be invited to submit proposals that will feed in to the research team's questionnaire design discussions. We will also consult on question design with those who have surveyed the members of other political parties, both in Britain and in comparable international contexts, thus maximising the project's comparative potential. By the end of the design phase, then, we will have a range of people and organisations involved in the design of the survey and thus with a reinforced interest in our findings.

2. Initial findings
The speed of collecting and processing internet survey data means that we will have initial findings - on matters such as the changing socio-demographic profile of these party memberships - available within a month or so of launching the survey. We plan on disseminating these findings through personal media contacts, press releases, posts on blogs and social media, and on the project website. Our releases, briefings and reports will be designed for a range of audiences, including policymakers, practitioners and party members, with research presented in a clear non-technical fashion.

3. Further analysis
As the project progresses, we will produce more detailed analysis of our survey and interview data, resulting in scientific outputs but also non-technical documents for our partners outside academia. These will serve as the basis for a number of presentations and, in particular, two workshops - both free to attend and widely advertised to all relevant parties - intended for discussion of the broader implications of our findings. The first is a two-day academic conference, in Aberdeen in September 2016, with our own presentations supplemented by invited contributions from leading international researchers in this field. The second is a half-day open forum event in Edinburgh, October 2016, at which our key findings will be presented to a diverse audience of our impact partners, members of the parties and campaigning organisations, and interested members of the public. In addition to these events, we will present findings to both parties directly at their annual conferences and regional meetings.

We will use a range of methods for monitoring the effectiveness of our impact strategy throughout the life of the project and for several years afterwards.
 
Description 1.New comparative data-set. Online surveys of the entire memberships of the two parties were conducted between 30/9/16 and 16/3/17, resulting in major new datasets of many thousands of members. In addition, we conducted an extensive programme of face-to-face, semi-structured elite interviews with c.100 senior figures and activists in the two parties and across the national movement. Together these quantitative and qualitative components provide in-depth understanding of the membership surge and its long-term impact on party organisations. 2.Causes of the surge: movements and parties. One central question for this study is what motivated the new members to join. We find that the referendum acted as a unique and important platform for the two parties to present themselves to an already receptive audience during a long, energetic campaign. Many respondents report low-intensity forms of participation like displaying posters and on-line discussion during the campaign. Relatively few were directly involved in high-cost activism. Nevertheless, our findings suggest a sense of belonging to a movement community; a feeling of being connected to other supporters of independence. We record a desire to maintain the movement momentum through party membership, with widespread agreement that 'being a party member feels like being part of a movement'. These findings develop important themes about the connections between movements and conventional party politics. This is confirmed by findings on motivations for joining; dominant reasons are political rather than participatory. Commitment to independence is, unsurprisingly, the primary motivation - especially for SNP members - but in both parties this is combined with a belief in a more equal, socially just society. Among Scottish Greens this involves green ideals. There is a clear understanding, in both parties, of what independence can achieve. 3.Consequences of the surge: membership profile. The surge has tweaked rather than transformed the profile of members. The Greens remain a younger party, with a mean age of 46, compared to the SNP's 56. Both parties are well-educated and objectively middle class, especially the Greens, but the SNP members display a stronger working class identity. However, more women have joined the parties. The Scottish Greens have achieved gender parity, with half of members now women; 38% of SNP members are female. Ideologically, members of both parties view themselves as markedly left of centre, but the Scottish Greens more emphatically so. Over time, a shift to the left has taken place in both parties, partially reflecting changes in the Scottish electorate. On the constitution, both are now firmly parties of independence. Both parties also show a clear preferences for independence within the EU. SNP members are somewhat more impatient for a second independence referendum, but both parties are quite pragmatic on the timing. 4.Consequences of the surge: organisational change. The surge created short-term organisational strain but many longer-term benefits. Local parties have been replenished in terms of the number and spread of activists, though the picture varies across Scotland. Centrally, the parties have experienced a dramatic injection of financial resources. More than three years after the referendum the Scottish Greens are reviewing internal party structures, suggesting more transformational consequences for the smaller party. The pattern of party activism is rather conventional: most members are passive, or active only digitally, suggesting that membership for many is a symbolic or expressive act. Nevertheless, membership has largely lived up to expectations, most visibly in the SNP, making this party the most likely to retain its members. The sheer numbers mean that, even if activism remains a minority pursuit, the parties now have far more members who can potentially be mobilised in the event of a second independence referendum.
Exploitation Route A range of academic and non-academic audiences have shown an interest in our research. Key audiences and beneficiaries are:
•academic researchers with an interest in political parties and movements. Considerable benefit has been gained from cooperation with other researchers working on party membership
•the political parties themselves - our findings have provided the parties with important information on the characteristics and attitudes of members, helping with membership development strategies.
•local and Scottish government e.g. our findings are of interest to the Local Government Review group in its examination of public engagement in policy-making
•policymakers/third sector - various other organisations and bodies seeking to boost participation, such as the Electoral Commission in Scotland and the Electoral Reform Society.
•campaigning organisations - part of the membership surge comes from movements within the referendum's Yes campaign, giving them considerable interest in our findings.
•the mass media - a range of Scottish and UK media outlets have reported on our research
Sectors Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Environment,Government, Democracy and Justice,Culture, Heritage, Museums and Collections,Other

URL https://www.abdn.ac.uk/socsci/disciplines/pir/recruited-by-referendum-party-membership-energised-524.php
 
Description Our research findings have generated wide-spread interest amongst non-academic audiences. This is an ongoing process and will continue as we publish further academic outputs and other material. At the beginning of the project we identified three key pathways to impact: i) co-producing survey questionnaires with our impact partners (The SNP and Scottish Greens); ii) dissemination plans geared to their interests and requirements; and iii) using a diverse range of channels to circulate our findings and insights to the widest possible audience. These objectives have been realised. Key non-academic audiences and beneficiaries have included the political parties, third sector organisations interested in boosting political participation (like the Electoral Reform Society), pro-independence campaigning groups and mass media organisations. Specifically, non-academic impact has been promoted in the following ways: Engagement with political organisations: From the early stages of the project, there was extensive consultation with the SNP and Scottish Greens. For example, in 2016 we led a workshop at a Scottish Green Party annual conference to publicise the project and to generate ideas for questionnaire design. Throughout the project we have worked closely with the parties, holding meetings with staff in their Headquarters, and shared our findings in the form of conference papers and wider dissemination events (see below). The extensive programme of face-to-face interviews with the parties' elected representatives and professional staff helped foster good communication between the research team and the political organisations being studied. In the case of the SNP, good working relations led to another survey of party members in June 2018, a collaborative effort of academic researchers and party personnel. And the research team contributed to an SNP internal organisational review. Dissemination to parties and media: In September 2017 (26.09.17) we hosted a high-profile dissemination event at Edinburgh University, entitled 'Who are the SNP? Who are the Scottish Greens?' The research team presented the project's key findings on characteristics and attitudes of SNP and SGP members and circulated the presentation content. This event, aimed specifically at our non-academic audiences, was extremely well-attended by representatives of the parties, media organisations, other groups and individuals (and some academics). Following this event, project findings formed the subject of an article in Holyrood magazine, and were widely debated in social media forums. See Liam Kirkaldy 'Rumours of the SNP's Demise are Exaggerated' (9 October 2017) https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/rumours-snps-demise-are-exaggerated. Popular articles and blogs written by research team: L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns (2018) 'When parties connect with movements: Party membership following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence', LSE Blogs, 2 October 2018: http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/party-membership-since-indyref/ J. Mitchell, L. Bennie and R. Johns (2018) 'Exclusive analysis: who are the new members of the SNP?' Holyrood, 10 September 2018: https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/exclusive-analysis-who-are-new-members-snp J. Mitchell (2017) 'Nicola's Army', Centre on Constitutional Change, 14 March 2017: https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/nicola's-army J. Mitchell, L. Bennie and R Johns (2017) 'Referendum as platform: the SNP and Scottish Green membership surge' Political Insight, vol. 8, 3: pp. 16-19. Article first published online: November 10, 2017; Issue published: December 1, 2017 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2041905817744629 J. Mitchell (2016) 'The SNP Depute Leadership Contest', Centre on Constitutional Change, 5 September 2016: https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/snp-depute-leadership-contest Public lectures by Professor Mitchell referring to project findings: •7 October 2018 invited keynote 'Brexit and Scottish Independence: How the Vote to Leave the EU will Shape Scotland's Future', Montana State University. •28-29 March 2018 delivered two public lectures ('Devolution and the Scottish Question' and 'Brexit and the UK Constitution') at invitation of the University of Genoa. •25 October 2017 invited keynote 'Recruited by referendum', at conference on Towards Independence? How minority nationalism is re-configuring European space, School of Culture and Society, University of Aarhus, Denmark/Diplocat (Public Diplomacy Council of Catalonia). Media Interviews: Professor Mitchell has been interviewed and quoted on the SNP by a variety of media outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, Guardian, Le Monde, Libération, Die Presse, BBC radio and television, ITV, Scottish Television, Channel 4 News, Al-Jazeera, Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, CTV News (Canadian Television), Bauer media (covering various local radio stations). Professor Johns has been interviewed on the SNP by BBC Radio 4 and BBC Radio 5 Live. Dr Bennie has been interviewed on the referendum and party recruitment by BBC Radio Scotland, BBC Radio 5 Live, The Guardian, the Aberdeen Press and Journal and Evening Express. International workshops and conferences: •L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns 'Recruited by Referendum: Party membership in the SNP and Scottish Greens', 66th Annual International Conference of the Political Science Association, Brighton, UK, 21-23 March 2016 •L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns 'New members, new parties? Causes and consequences of surging party membership following the Scottish independence referendum', 75th Annual MPSA Conference, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL, 6-9 April 2017. •L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns 'New members, new parties?', 67thAnnual International Conference, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, 10-12 April 2017. •R. Johns, L. Bennie and J. Mitchell 'It's just a step to the left? Ideology, independence and the 2014 party membership surge in Scotland', Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (EPOP) 2017 Conference, University of Nottingham, UK, •L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns 'New Members, New Movement Politics?' International Party Membership Workshop, Royal Holloway College, University of London, 13-14 September 2018. •R. Johns, L. Bennie and J. Mitchell 'Bluetooth and Blu Tack: A new style of party membership?', International Party Membership Workshop, Royal Holloway College, University of London, 13-14 September 2018. •L. Bennie, R. Johns and J. Mitchell, presentation of key project findings, International Workshop on Party Members, University of Aberdeen, 21-22 September 2017 •J. Mitchell 'Eurosceptics and Euroenthusiasts: Scotland and European Integration', Political History Workshop, Edinburgh, 20 April 2018: •J. Mitchell 'Take Back Control', paper delivered at Brexit and Trump: What's Next for the UK, EU and US?, University of California, Berkeley, 30 August 2018 •J. Mitchell 'The Scottish and European Questions and the Future of UK', Oxford University & George Mason University, Mansfield College, Oxford, 11 August 2016. Project findings with impact: There has, in short, been significant interest in our work, with extensive social media reporting of the study's findings and events. Impact has been at a broad societal level through to the media, those involved in public policy and public engagement, and the political parties themselves. Most visibly, the study resonates in internal debates within the parties, contributing to understanding of party mobilisation and change. The study's most important findings are reported in another section of research fish but we would highlight the following as areas where impact has been considerable: 1.The links between social movements and parties in membership surges: Our findings suggest a sense of belonging to a movement community; a feeling of being connected to other supporters of independence. This does not necessarily mean active involvement, but it points to potential for (re) mobilisation to party membership in the event of a second independence referendum. 2.Demographic change in parties: the surges have tweaked rather transformed the profile of party members. More women have joined the parties but a gender gap remains in the SNP. This is an important corrective to any media or party narratives about the surges altering longstanding inequalities in participation. 3.Activity and participation of party members: The pattern of party activism is rather conventional - most members are passive, or active only digitally. The proportion of active members appears to have declined. This again corrects a narrative about a participatory influx into the parties, and guides the parties themselves about both the opportunities - especially the boost in campaigning strength - and organisational problems arising from the surge. 4.Ideology and attitudes of members: Members of both parties view themselves as left of centre, the Scottish Greens more emphatically so. Over time there has been a slight move to the left. Both are now firmly parties of independence, with a clear preference for independence within the EU. Both parties are quite pragmatic on the timing of a second independence referendum. Since new members have often been thought to be the constituency most likely to pressurise the parties into pursuing a swift second referendum, this informs the central debate in Scottish politics. 5.Party organisational adaptation: The surge created short-term organisational strain but many longer-term benefits. Nationally the parties are financially better off but experiencing structural change to accommodate larger memberships. While SGP membership has declined recently, the SNP continues to attract new members. 6.New comparative data-set, with quantitative and qualitative components, which has already generated interest among researchers in the field and has considerable potential for comparative research - elsewhere in the UK and internationally.
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Societal,Policy & public services

 
Description Blog by J. Mitchell on 'The SNP Deputy leadership contest' https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/snp-depute-leadership-contest Centre for Constitutional Change (and Academy of Government) 5th Sept 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog on SNP deputy leader contest
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/snp-depute-leadership-contest
 
Description Blog by J. Mitchell: 'Nicola's Lonely Decision' https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/nicola-sturgeon's-lonely-decision 11 October 2016 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog discussion of SNP leader and members. Intended to reach wide audience.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016
URL https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/nicola-sturgeon's-lonely-decision
 
Description Blog by J. Mitchell: 'Nicola's army' https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/nicola's-army Centre for Constitutional Change (and Academy of Government) 14 March 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Blog on strategic challenges of SNP
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/nicola%E2%80%99s-army
 
Description J. Mitchell, L. Bennie and R. Johns (2018) 'Exclusive analysis: who are the new members of the SNP?' Holyrood, 10 September 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Academic research being reported in accessible form to Holyrood magazine, targeted at politicians and international media.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/exclusive-analysis-who-are-new-members-snp
 
Description L. Bennie, J. Mitchell and R. Johns (2018) 'When parties connect with movements: Party membership following the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence', LSE Blogs, 2 October 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact LSE Blog, highly respected blog organisation with wide impact
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/party-membership-since-indyref/