Aggregation in Gravity-Based Estimation: Theory, Evidence and Policy Implications

Lead Research Organisation: University of Warwick
Department Name: Economics

Abstract

International trade forms a vital part of modern economies. Likewise, many aspects of government policy are directed towards influencing international trade. For instance, governments may join trade agreements, enter currency unions or lower tariff barriers. It is therefore crucial to understand and predict the effects of such policies on international trade, particularly at a time when the UK government is looking to embark on the (re)negotiation of multiple trade deals. The so-called gravity equation is the most widespread and influential tool to estimate these effects in the data.

One difficulty in understanding the behaviour of trade in response to government policy is that trade data are typically aggregate statistics. Aggregation occurs with respect to two major dimensions. First, aggregation can apply over different industries, for instance when exports of cars and furniture are combined. Even within narrowly defined industries, trade data as reported in standard statistical data sets typically aggregate over different firms and their transactions. Second, aggregation can refer to space. For instance, exports from Britain are aggregates of exports from individual regions.

The aim of our project is to shed light on how aggregation affects estimates in gravity estimation, both from a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. When trade policies change, they typically affect individual economic agents at the micro level. For example, when a tariff is introduced, it affects the behaviour of firms and consumers. Gravity estimation, however, is based on aggregate data. To what extent can we then use gravity estimates to identify relevant parameters that operate at the micro level? Identifying these structural parameters is of fundamental importance, for instance for policymakers trying to understand the effects of trade policy.

The response to a trade policy change such as a new trade agreement might differ at the micro level compared to what aggregate gravity estimates typically suggest, either because firms operate in different industries with different characteristics, or because firms are based in different locations (say, closer to the border or further away) and therefore react differently.

Apart from contributing to the academic literature, our research aims at improving the accuracy and predictive power of empirical trade models for practical purposes. It will allow policymakers to better forecast the effects of proposed policy changes. This is particularly important for the UK government in the wake of the Brexit referendum where it is likely that many existing trade agreements have to be renegotiated or new ones devised. Our research can also help to understand the exporting behaviour of firms, and ultimately help to identify policies that show more promise to increase exports.

Apart from policymakers in government, we also see our research as beneficial to international organisations such as the World Trade Organization and the OECD. Those organisations are concerned with the effects of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on international trade. We have strong existing links to officials from these organisations and will use them to disseminate and discuss our research.

Planned Impact

Apart from academic beneficiaries, our research will benefit policymakers from a range of institutions. Our research will be directly relevant to any government department or international organisation involved in the design and evaluation of trade policy. In the UK in particular, this includes HM Treasury, BEIS, UK Trade & Investment and the new Department for International Trade. In the wake of the Brexit referendum, for the first time in over 40 years the UK will have to build up its capacity to negotiate trade deals, and this process will have to rely on expert advice and up-to-date techniques.

Other potential users are other governments, the European Commission, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. These institutions rely on the gravity equation to evaluate trade policy arrangements, for instance to predict the effect of new trade agreements, and we have professional contacts with them.

We also expect impact for industry and consumer organisations such as the British-American Business Council (BABC) and associated chapters since they also routinely evaluate trade policy.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description Our research has generated new knowledge and methods about estimating the effect of trade costs on international trade. Suppose that researchers want to understand by how much a new free trade agreement increases trade flows between two countries. When trade costs go down due to the free trade agreement (for example because tariffs are phased out), the impact typically materializes at the level of individual firms and customers who start trading more with foreign partners. However, due to data constraints the trade effect is routinely estimated with aggregate country-level data. To what extent is this practice justified? We show that with the help of certain statistical methods, estimation based on country-level data can provide an accurate picture of the trade effect. Specifically, we find that the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator allows researchers to estimate the impact with aggregate data even if trade decisions are made by individual firms and customers. The reason is that this estimator provides an average of decisions made at the lower level. This insight is useful for policy makers who are interested in predicting the effect of future trade agreements. Our research suggests a method that allows them to achieve this objective even if they do not have individual-level data at hand.

Our research has also examined trade aggregation across space. International trade data are most commonly reported at the country level, for example between the UK and the US. But those data are aggregates across space since countries are made up of various regions (England, Scotland, California, Texas etc.) Does it matter whether the effect of trade costs is estimated at the aggregate level or the level of regions? We find that it does. When researchers try to estimate the trade-impeding effect of international borders (e.g., a UK region trading with the US rather than with another UK region), they will typically find stronger effects based on regional data. We explain the reasons behind this aggregation effect. To compare estimates from the literature, researchers need to adjust for different spatial units (e.g., small vs. large countries). Otherwise, they might end up 'comparing apples and oranges.'

Our research has examined how the exchange rate affects UK consumer prices. We work with customs micro data from HM Revenue and Customs that allow us to observe individual import transactions by UK firms. We find that most transactions are not invoiced in UK sterling but rather in different currencies such as the US dollar and the euro. This means that when sterling depreciates, on average UK consumer prices are more sensitive to the depreciation. The reason is that when prices in foreign currency are converted into sterling, they more likely reflect the weaker exchange rate. Compared to previous work that did not account for invoicing in different currencies, we find a much stronger effect of exchange rate movements on UK consumer prices. This research can help the Bank of England and other policy institutions to better predict UK inflation.
Exploitation Route Our research is directly relevant for policy institutions such as the OECD, the World Bank and the Bank of England. For example, based on our research policy makers can better predict the effect of free trade agreements on international trade flows, and the effect of exchange rate movements on consumer price inflation.
Sectors Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Government, Democracy and Justice

 
Description Our research team has engaged with a wide range of government departments and policy institutions such as the Department for International Trade, HM Treasury, the Bank of England, civil servants in the UK and Scottish governments as well as Parliament. Our research findings are particularly relevant for trade policy analysis and the prediction of trade flows as well as the forecasting of UK consumer price inflation in response to exchange rate movements. We provide further details below. Breinlich and Novy: On 10 May 2018 Breinlich and Novy gave a workshop on "The estimation of trade costs" and the gravity equation for civil servants at the Scottish Government in Edinburgh. About 15-20 civil servants attended. Advice was also given on their forecast models simulating the potential effects of Brexit on the Scottish economy. A few days after the workshop they were sent a letter of appreciation to express thanks and explain how our workshop impacted on the attending team and the work of the Scottish Government. Natalie Chen and Dennis Novy gave a research presentation at the Bank of England in January 2018. They presented our paper on "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through". This is directly relevant for inflation forecasting and the effect of exchange rate movements on UK consumer price inflation. In February 2018, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, appointed Dennis Novy to the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). The inaugural meeting took place on 21 February 2018 at No 11 Downing Street. The CEA's deliberations are conveyed directly to the Chancellor through the Chancellor's Special Economic Adviser and the Treasury's Chief Economic Advisor. They are also conveyed directly to the Prime Minister through the Prime Minister's Special Economic Adviser. Evidence by Dennis Novy was cited in the House of Commons International Trade Committee report 2018 on UK-US Trade relations (see the House of Commons International Trade Committee report on "UK-US Trade Relations", published on 01 May 2018). The evidence refers to the importance of non-tariff barriers in international trade as well as the role of government procurement as a crucial agenda item in potential UK-US trade negotiations. Natalie Chen became a member of the Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts on the European Economy, 2020. Holger Breinlich was a member of the Strategic Trade Advisory Group, 2019-2020. Holger Breinlich had a phone call with minister of State for trade policy, Conor Burns, 2020. Holger Breinlich gave a talk at the Department for International Trade (DIT) as part of their trade professionals lecture series (4 February 2020). The topic of the talk was "the economic effects of free trade agreements" and how to estimate the trade effects of FTAs using the gravity equation. Approximately 30 civil servants from DIT were in attendance and the event was also recorded and made available to other civil servants who could not attend on the day. Dennis Novy gave a masterclass workshop on the Estimation of Trade Costs for a group of civil servants at the Department for International Trade, DExEU and HM Treasury with about 30 participants in total (9 February 2018). The workshop focused on how to estimate the effect of trade costs on international trade flows, for instance how to estimate the effect of new free trade agreements that Britain might strike post-Brexit. The workshop also focused on how get an overview of the evolution of trade costs over the long run since the 19th century. Dennis Novy gave a presentation on "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit" for about 50-60 UK civil servants as part of the "LSE Programme on Brexit", which is a series of lectures for 'Civil Service Learning' (Dennis Novy: 05 December 2019). The presentation included a Q&A session. The event was chaired by LSE Professor Tony Travers. Dennis Novy attended a "Trade Lunch" at the Bank of England (Structural Economics Division) and presented research on the effects of uncertainty on international trade based on his paper with Alan Taylor published in the Review of Economics and Statistics (01 August 2019). The lunch was organised by a senior economist at the Bank of England and attended by other research economists. Dennis Novy participated in the "ESRC-ICSSR workshop on the future of UK-Indian trade and cross border investment in a changing global environment" in New Delhi, India (5 March 2019). The ESRC is considering setting up a joint research funding call with their Indian counterpart, the ICSSR (Indian Council of Social Science Research). Dennis Novy gave a presentation on the global context for international trade in recent times, and UK-India trade relations in particular. Dennis Novy organised and led a Virtual Conference for Early Career Researchers joint with Meredith Crowley (22 September 2020). This was a joint collaboration with The UK in a Changing Europe and Cambridge-INET. Early career researchers (post-docs, PhD students and assistant professors) presented their research. Meredith and Dennis gave feedback. The presenters prepared blog entries for a general public target audience explaining their research in non-technical terms. Feedback was also given on those blog entries.
First Year Of Impact 2018
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Dennis Novy, member of Council of Economic Advisers (CEA): February 2018: The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, appointed Dennis Novy to the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA). The inaugural meeting took place on 21 February 2018 at No 11 Downing Street. The CEA's deliberations are conveyed directly to the Chancellor through the Chancellor's Special Economic Adviser and the Treasury's Chief Economic Advisor. They are also conveyed directly to the Prime Minister through the Prime Minister's Special Economic Adviser.
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Membership of a guideline committee
 
Description Membership Strategic Trade Advisory Group
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a guidance/advisory committee
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/strategic-trade-advisory-group
 
Description Novy. evidence citation in HOC Trade committee report 2018 on UK-US Trade relations
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
URL https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/481/481.pdf
 
Description Conference for Early Career Researchers 
Organisation The UK in a Changing Europe
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Public 
PI Contribution 22 September 2020: Dennis Novy organised and led a Virtual Conference for Early Career Researchers (joint with Meredith Crowley, supported by The UK in a Changing Europe and Cambridge-INET). Early career researchers (post-docs, PhD students and assistant professors) presented their research. Meredith and Dennis gave feedback. The presenters prepared blog entries for a general public target audience explaining their research in non-technical terms. Feedback was also given on those blog entries.
Collaborator Contribution This event was jointly organised with The UK in a Changing Europe.
Impact The presenters prepared blog entries for a general public target audience explaining their research in non-technical terms. Feedback was also given on those blog entries.
Start Year 2020
 
Description 09 February 2018: Novy masterclass workshop (2.5 hours) on the Estimation of Trade Costs 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 9 February 2018: Dennis Novy gave a masterclass workshop (2.5 hours) on the Estimation of Trade Costs for a group of civil servants at DIT, DExEU and HMT (about 30 participants in total). The workshop focused on how to estimate the effect of trade costs on international trade flows, for instance how to estimate the effect of new free trade agreements that Britain might strike post-Brexit. The workshop also focused on how get an overview of the evolution of trade costs over the long run since the 19th century. Contact: Ethan Thornton at DIT. List of attendees: Stefan Hoyte (DIT), Pippa Watling (DIT), David Tan (DIT), Chris Alexander (DIT), Paul Roe (DIT), Jack Marsden (DIT), Bal Khinder (DIT), Danny Walker (DExEU), Paul Garner (DExEU), Robbie McCall (DExEU), Ingrid Pechinger (DExEU), Michael Conroy (HMT), Vyara Ruseva (HMT), Jonathan Bateman (DIT), Tammy Holmes (DIT), Rebecca Davenport (DIT), Niccolo Bonifai (DIT), George Isherwood (DIT), Costanza Tomaselli (DIT), Igor Zurimendi (HMT), Alex Stewart (HMT).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Bank of England seminar presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact January 2018: Natalie Chen and Dennis Novy gave a research presentation of their paper on "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" at the Bank of England. This is directly relevant for inflation forecasting and the effect of exchange rate movements on UK consumer price inflation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Breinlich - Economic effects of FTAS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Regional
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact - 4 Feb 2020: I gave a talk on the "economic effects of FTAS" as part of DIT's trade professionals lecture series (around 30 civil servants in attendance; lecture also recorded an made available to other DIT employees).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Breinlich 1/6/2018: meeting with representatives of the Cabinet Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact On 1/6/2018 Holger Breinlich gave an overview of selected bits of his current research (Brexit, international trade) to representatives of the Cabinet Office who were visiting University of Surrey.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Breinlich 18/9/2018: Meeting with DIT 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact On 18/9/2018 Holger Breinlich had a further meeting with DIT officials to give an update on his current research on international trade topics (ca. 5-6 people attending)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Breinlich 21/5/2018:(DIT) meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 0n 21/5/2018 Holger Breinlich met with the Department of International Trade (DIT) Research Team (ca. five people attending). They discussed his research on international trade (export promotion, the impact of free trade agreements, data issues etc.)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Breinlich: A panel discussion on the economic consequence of Brexit as part of Surrey's participation in the ESRC's Festival of Social Science 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 11 November 2020: I was part of a panel discussion on the economic consequence of Brexit, which was held at the University of Surrey as part of Surrey's participation in the ESRC's Festival of Social Science 2020.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/making-sense-of-brexit-a-roundtable-to-answer-your-questions-tickets-...
 
Description Breinlich: A phone call with minister of State for trade policy Conor Burns 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 9 April 2020: a phone call with minister of State for trade policy Conor Burns; this was a phone call with minister Conor Burns to discuss the impact of the Covid pandemic and DIT's response; minister Burns also gave an update on current and future UK trade policy; this phone call was in place of the regular strategic trade advisory group (STAG) meetings which could not be held because of lockdown restrictions (note that I was a member of STAG between April 2019 and April 2020).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Breinlich: OECD, Trade and agriculture directorate 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 17/1/2018 Breinlich was invited to attend an Expert meeting on services trade policy, structural transformation and labour market adjustments and presented a paper "The Impact of Trade Agreements on Consumer Welfare - Evidence from the EU Common External Trade Policy" to 30-40 people from different parts of the OECD and the WTO.

.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Breinlich: an (online) presentation at the Paris School of economics (Paris, France) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 15 November 2020: I gave an (online) presentation at the Paris School of economics (Paris, France) of a research paper of mine titled "gravity with granularity".
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Breinlich: workshop EU Commission, DG Trade 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Breinlich presented paper entitled "Trade Liberalisation and the link between services and goods trade at the firm level" at a non-technical workshop organised by the commission to discuss evidence on consumer benefits of trade; ca. 50 attended from various parts of the Commission.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Brexit and British Foreign Direct Investment Podcast (VoxEU) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 16 August 2019: Holger Breinlich and Dennis Novy do a VoxEU podcast interview with Tim Phillips on Brexit and British foreign direct investment, based on the corresponding CEP Brexit Analysis research paper.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://voxeu.org/vox-talks/investing-brexit
 
Description Chair and Discussant - European Centre Bank Conference Inflation in a changing economic environment 2020 (Chen) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Chair and discussant for Session 6 - International dimensions of inflation at European Central Bank Conference
Inflation in a changing economic environment, 23 and 24 September 2019.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20190923_inflation_conference.en.html
 
Description Chen/Novy: BofE seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Natalie Chen (CI) took part in a Bank of England seminar along with Dennis Novy and spent a day in the International Directorate of the Bank of England. Chen gave a presentation of a recent paper on "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through." They were invited to present their work as the topic they study is of particular of interest to the Bank of England and to policymakers in general in the context of the UK leaving the EU. The paper shows that, once we take into account the currency in which trade flows are invoiced, domestic prices in the UK respond strongly to changes in the exchange rate (between sterling and the currency in which trade flows are invoiced), and as a result we can explain why inflation in the UK was higher than expected after the Brexit vote. Researchers at the Bank were very interested by our paper and asked us to participate in a special session organised by the Bank of England at a conference in Perth in April (details to be confirmed).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Chen: Bank of Belgium conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Natalie Chen presented the paper "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" (with W. Chung and D. Novy) at the Bank of Belgium in November 2018. The conference was co-organised by CEPR and the Bank of Belgium
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Chen: CEPR/IMF Discussion Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Discussion CEPR-IMF Programme meeting, Zurich, October 2017

The conference was jointly organised by CEPR and the Swiss National Bank. There were around 50 participants and the audience was a mix between academics and central bankers from the Swiss National Bank, the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the BIS. The paper Chen discussed investigated the effects of the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in January 2015 on the prices and the consumption of consumer goods in Switzerland, where the appreciation was due to the removal of the lower bound on the Swiss Franc to Euro exchange rate. It was followed by an informed question and answer session
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Chen: European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT) 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact ERWIT is an annual workshop that brings together international economists from across Europe and key researchers from outside the region. The workshop disseminates the findings of recent research on international trade, and presentations often involve exploratory rather than finished papers. It provides a unique opportunity to discuss trade-related research in a relaxed atmosphere
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://cepr.org/2515/programme
 
Description Chen: Roundtable meeting (online) with Bridget Micklem, Deputy Director for the UK Internal Market team in BEIS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Roundtable meeting (online) with Bridget Micklem, Deputy Director for the UK Internal Market team in BEIS (Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy), and colleagues to discuss the UKIM Bill's internal market system, 15 October 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Chen: University of Cergy-Pontoise, research seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact University of Cergy-Pontoise, presented Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs at a research seminar on March 4, 2021, via Zoom,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Chen: University of Verona, research seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact on November 27, 2020, via Zoom presentation of Markups, Quality, and Trade Costs
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.univr.it/en/seminars/-/evento/5249?p_auth=COMdPBYt
 
Description Chen: special session organised by the Bank of England at the Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Natalie Chen presented the paper "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through" (with W. Chung and D. Novy) at a special session organised by the Bank of England at the Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference in Perth in April 2018 (presentation by invitation only)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www2.eventsxd.com/event/5241/2018scottisheconomicsocietyannualconference/sessions
 
Description Conference presentation and Global Value Chain Workshop, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation delivered at Global Value Chain Workshop, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing, July 2019
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Delivery of Seminar to UK Trade Remedies Investigations Directorate 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 18 October 2019: Dennis Novy gave a seminar at the UK Trade Remedies Investigations Directorate in Reading, presenting his research on "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through". He also met various officials throughout the afternoon. The visit was initiated by Geoffrey Chapman, Economic Adviser.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Fellow of the Global Economy Programme of CESifo (Chen) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The CESifo Research Network offers a wide range of network activities and functions as both a research tool and a publication platform for its members. Network members may submit working papers for publication and are invited to participate in conferences, workshops, and seminars.
It brings together leading economists from around the globe and constitutes an ideal platform for the discussion of current applied and theoretical themes in economics, with an emphasis on public policy issues.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.cesifo.org/en/node/35240
 
Description Interview for MFI Market News on invoicing currencies 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 30 August 2019: Dennis Novy was interviewed by David Robinson for MFI Market News about his research with Natalie Chen and Wanyu Chung on invoicing currencies and how it would affect the Bank of England's assessment of how the exchange impact UK inflation. (No URL available due to paywall).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Interview on NPR "All Things Considered" Radio Show 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 03 June 2019: Dennis Novy was interviewed by Audie Cornish on NPR's "All Things Considered" radio show on his research with David Jacks on trade blocs and trade wars.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.npr.org/2019/06/03/729390417/the-economic-impact-of-the-u-s-moving-away-from-big-multi-l...
 
Description Keynote presentation at the Public Finance and Public Policy Conference 2020 with Centre for Training & Research in Public Finance and Policy (Chen) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Keynote presentation at the 9th International Conference on Public Finance and Public Policy Organized By
Centre for Training and Research in Public Finance and Policy (A Ministry of Finance, Government of India initiative) Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta
http://ctrpfp.ac.in/jancon20.html
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Live TV Interview - SkyNews Arabia - No deal Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 04 September 2019: Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview on SkyNews Arabia on the potential economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit and the prospects of a UK general election
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Live TV interview on SkyNews Arabia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 28 March 2019: Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview on SkyNews Arabia. The topic was Brexit and its economic consequences for the short and the long run.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Live TV interview on SkyNews Arabia 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 31 July 2019: Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview on SkyNews Arabia on the potential effects of a no-deal Brexit on the UK and the European economies. The interview focused on customs arrangements and impacts on consumer prices.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Live interview for Al Jazeera TV - Brexit Preparations 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 18 August 2019: Dennis Novy was interviewed live on Al Jazeera TV on the economic effects of no deal and the government's Brexit preparations. The interview in the studio was led by news anchor Maryam Nemazee.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Member of Royal Economic Society Scientific Programme Committee (Chen) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Programme committee member until 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.res.org.uk/uploads/assets/uploaded/08b0f007-c4f7-482f-a1658eb2943bd8e8.pdf
 
Description Novy : meeting with Jens Larsen, macro analyst with Wellington Management International 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 01 March 2019: Dennis Novy had a meeting with Jens Larsen, macro analyst with Wellington Management International, London to discuss the economic effects of Brexit, their impact on the City of London and the European economy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Novy : meeting with Peter Foster, Europe Editor of the Daily Telegraph. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 21 January 2019: Dennis Novy had a meeting with Peter Foster, Europe Editor of the Daily Telegraph. The conversation was about our latest research on the economic effects of Brexit, and the latest state of the political Brexit process.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Novy: CEBRA Annual Meeting, Frankfurt, August 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dennis Novy presented a paper "Vehicle Currency Pricing and Exchange Rate Pass-Through"  (joint with Natalie Chen and  Wanyu Chung) at the 2018 Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Annual Meeting, in Frankfurt, August 2018
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: in communication and received a letter from Simon Walker, Chair-Designate of the UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA). 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Other audiences
Results and Impact 04 February 2021: Dennis Novy was in communication and received a letter from Simon Walker, Chair-Designate of the UK Trade Remedies Authority (TRA).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/people/simon-walker
 
Description Novy: 73rd Economic Policy Panel Meeting/CEPR, 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact The Spring 2021 Economic Policy Panel Meeting will be held online on 15 and 16 April and the papers presented will focus on 'The Economics of Covid-19'.
On the afternoon of Thursday 15 April, a policy panel open to the broader audience will include presentations from Stefanie Stantcheva and Gabriel Zucman followed by a panel discussion with Rana Foroohar.
Registrations for the policy panel opened in early March
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.economic-policy.org/
 
Description Novy: A new report on the prospects for 'Global Britain' - Dennis is directly quoted 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 22 February 2021: A new report on the prospects for 'Global Britain' was published by the Harvard Kennedy School (authored by Ed Balls, Nyasha Weinberg, Jessica Redmond, Sechi Kailasa and Tommaso Cariati), titled "Finding 'Global Britain': Political Slogan to Hard Economic Policy Choices." It cites Dennis Novy at various stages. Dennis is directly quoted in reference to future potential UK trade agreements
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/publications/awp/awp160
 
Description Novy: A panel discussion at UCL Economics Conference, November 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 28 November 2020: Dennis Novy took part in a panel discussion on the future of international trade and globalization at the University College London (UCL) Economics Conference, November 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/ucl-economics-conference-2020-tickets-123457190781
 
Description Novy: A phone interview to Jack Rear, Digital Writer at The Daily Telegraph 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 08 September 2020: Dennis Novy gave a phone interview to Jack Rear, Digital Writer at The Daily Telegraph. The interview was about what topics we teach in International Trade at the University of Warwick, and what career paths it can lead to for students, and whether they could become trade negotiators.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education-and-careers/2020/09/10/want-study-international-trade-need-kno...
 
Description Novy: An online lecture at The University of the West Indies, Barbados 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 27 May 2020: Dennis Novy gave an online lecture at The University of the West Indies, Barbados (Shridath Ramphal Centre), on the economic analysis of trade policy, with particular reference to free trade agreements and Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: Banco de Mexico workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 27 June 2018: Dennis Novy was invited to the Banco de Mexico-ITAM Workshop on Current Economic Issues in Mexico City. Dennis presented his research on the economic effects of Brexit with a particular focus on inflation. The workshop was attended by a number of high-profile economists mainly based in the United States including Monika Piazzesi (Stanford) and Martin Uribe (Columbia).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: Bank of England/Banque de France International Macroeconomics Workshop 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Dennis Novy was an invited discussant at the Bank of England/Banque de France International Macroeconomics Workshop, held in London, Dec. 2018
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: CEPR International Macroeconomics and Finance Programme Meeting, Frankfurt, 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact (Discussant) The International Macroeconomics and Finance (IMF) Programme is one of the three successors to the International Macroeconomics (IM) Programme, and this meeting is chaired by Philippe Bacchetta (University of Lausanne).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/conferences/html/20191114_CEPR_programme_meeting.en.html
 
Description Novy: DIT Roundtable at Whitehall 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 13 June 2018: Dennis Novy was invited by the Chief Economist of the Department for International Trade (DIT), Richard Price, to give the lead presentation in the following event: roundtable discussion on "The Future role of Gravity in International Trade: Technology, Services Trade and the United Kingdom", on 13 June 2018. Dennis was the main speaker (guest speaker) on this topic. The venue was Whitehall Place, London. The roundtable discussion was to explore the role of distance in international trade, and how it might change in the next 30 years and what this implies for DIT and the UK's trade and investment policy. The event was held under the Chatham House rule and will be used by the Department for International Trade to develop its evidence base and analysis.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT) 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ERWIT is an annual workshop that brings together international economists from across Europe and key researchers from outside the region. The workshop disseminates the findings of recent research on international trade, and presentations often involve exploratory rather than finished papers. It provides a unique opportunity to discuss trade-related research in a relaxed atmosphere.
The workshop was online via Zoom over 3 days from Wednesday 21 October to Friday 23 October including the MICROPROD sessions.
(attending)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://cepr.org/2515/programme
 
Description Novy: Future of Finance Conference, March 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Hosted by 6 of the LARGEST careers societies from leading global universities, this event was proudly brought to you by UCL FinTech Society, LSE SU FinTech Society, LSE SU Political Risk & Investment Society, Imperial College Finance Society, Warwick Entrepreneurs & King's Business Club!
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Novy: International Trade and Covid-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact 03 November 2020: Dennis Novy gave an online presentation on "International Trade and Covid-19" to the Warwick Emerging Markets Society (WEMS), a student organisation at the University of Warwick.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.warwickemergingmarkets.com/
 
Description Novy: London School of Economics, March 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A research presentation was given at London School of Economics, March 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Novy: Research presentation - University of Duisburg-Essen, April 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A research presentation at University of Duisburg-Essen, April 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: TV Interview with Al Jazeera on the recent lending activity by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview with Al Jazeera on the recent lending activity by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help emerging economies deal with the Covid-19 crisis. The interview discussed the macroeconomic implications of IMF lending and the role of international sovereign debt.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: The Brexit vote and inflation - updated evidence 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact When the UK voted to leave the EU on 23 June 2016, financial markets were taken by surprise and the sterling exchange rate depreciated sharply. Since then, UK imports have become more expensive. The original version of this column, published in November 2017, found weaker sterling increased UK consumer prices by 1.7% in the year after the referendum. Updating the analysis using more recent data, we estimate that the Brexit depreciation increased UK consumer prices by 2.9%. This represents an £870 per year increase in the cost of living for the average UK household, meaning people have to work 1.4 weeks longer to afford the same goods and services.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/consequences-brexit-uk-inflation-and-living-standards-first-evidence#:~:te...
 
Description Novy: The German radio station Deutschlandfunk (equivalent to BBC Radio 4 in the UK) publishes a report on the NHS (National Health Service) in the UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 20 March 2020:The German radio station Deutschlandfunk (equivalent to BBC Radio 4 in the UK) publishes a report on the NHS (National Health Service) in the UK, recent cuts to British health care provision and fears of privatization. The report includes a comment by Dennis Novy on how trade agreements post Brexit especially with the United States might affect the NHS, referring to carve-out provisions for public health services in many recent trade agreements.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/britisches-gesundheitssystem-schleichende-privatisierung.795.de.html?...
 
Description Novy: The economic downturn in the wake of Covid-19, 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 14 April 2020: Dennis Novy gave a live TV interview with Al Jazeera (anchor: Adrian Finnegan). The topic was the economic downturn in the wake of Covid-19, the latest IMF World Economic Outlook on "The Great Lockdown", and which measures government across the world should take to facilitate economic recovery.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: UC Louvain, February 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A research presentation given at UC Louvain, February 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: University of Hull, December 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A research presentation given at University of Hull, December 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: University of Trier (History and Economics), June 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A research presentation at University of Trier (History and Economics), June 2020
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Novy: XVII Workshop in Economic Integration (2020) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact XV Inteco Workshop in Economic Integration, Valencia, November 2020 (keynote speaker)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.inteco.uji.es/wp-content/uploads/programa2020.pdf
 
Description Novy: meeting with Robert Woods, HM Treasury, Director, EU Analysis and Head of Global Economics. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 11 September 2018: Dennis Novy had a meeting with Robert Woods, HM Treasury, Director, EU Analysis and Head of Global Economics. They discussed research on trade and globalization, and in particular on trade costs and rules of origin in the context of Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: meeting with Soumaya Keynes, economics correspondent with The Economist magazine. 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 01 March 2018 and 18 May 2018: Dennis Novy met Soumaya Keynes, economics correspondent with The Economist magazine. They discussed Dennis' latest research on Brexit, vehicle currencies and currency unions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Novy: workshop to Scottish Government 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 10 May 2018: Dennis Novy gave a workshop on "The estimation of trade costs" and the gravity equation for civil servants at the Scottish Government in Edinburgh (together with Holger Breinlich). About 15-20 civil servants attended. Advice was also given on their forecast models simulating the potential effects of Brexit on the Scottish economy. The lead contact was Oscar Guinea. A few days after the workshop Oscar Guinea wrote a letter of appreciation to express his thanks and explain how our workshop impacted on his team and the work of the Scottish Government (I have the original letter in my office).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Online article "Trade Wars May 'Bloc Up' World Trade" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Article on VoxEU.org, 23rd July 2019 (with David Jacks)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://voxeu.org/article/trade-wars-may-bloc-world-trade
 
Description Participation in ESRC-ICSSR workshop on the future of UK-Indian trade and cross border investment in a changing global environment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 05 March 2019: Dennis Novy participated in the "ESRC-ICSSR workshop on the future of UK-Indian trade and cross border investment in a changing global environment" in New Delhi, India. The ESRC is considering setting up a joint research funding call with their Indian counterpart, the ICSSR (Indian Council of Social Science Research). Dennis Novy gave a presentation on the global context for international trade in recent times, and UK-India trade relations in particular.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Phone Interview with Agence France-Presse regarding depreciation of sterling 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Gave a phone interview to AFP (Agence France-Presse, the French press agency) about the depreciation of sterling in the night of the 2016 Brexit referendum and the ensuing increase in UK inflation, referring to his research on the topic
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.zonebourse.com/actualite-bourse/GB-le-taux-d-inflation-inchange-a-1-7-en-septembre-ONS--...
 
Description Presentation at Department for International Trade for Trade Professionals Lecture Series (Breinlich) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact (4 February 2020) A talk at the Department for International Trade (DIT) as part of their "trade professionals lecture series. The topic of the talk was "the economic effects of free trade agreements" and how to estimate the trade effects of FTAs using the gravity equation. Approximately 30 civil servants from DIT in attendance and the event was also recorded and made available to other civil servants who couldn't make it on the day.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Presentation at LSE Programme on Brexit - A Series for Civil Service Learning 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 05 December 2019: Dennis Novy gave a presentation on "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit" for about 50-60 UK civil servants as part of the "LSE Programme on Brexit", which is a series of lectures for 'Civil Service Learning'. The presentation was one hour including Q&A. The event was chaired by LSE Professor Tony Travers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presentation for CEPR Webinar on Trade and the Real Economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 27 November 2019: Dennis Novy gave an online presentation for a CEPR webinar on "Trade and the Real Economy" (joint with Meredith Crowley from the University of Cambridge) (one hour in total). The target audience was CEPR members. The webinar was introduced by Beatrice Weder di Mauro, CEPR President. It was moderated by Tim Phillips.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presented at The European Trade Study Group (ETSG) Conference, September 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation at session "Economic Geography" of subject Trade, Gravity and Aggregation.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.etsg.org/ETSG2019/ETSG2019Programme.pdf
 
Description Publication of VoxEU column "The Brexit vote and inflation - updated evidence" 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 02 March 2020: Dennis Novy published a VoxEU column on "The Brexit vote and inflation - updated evidence" (with Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain and Thomas Sampson). This is based on their research paper "Exchange Rates and Consumer Prices: Evidence from Brexit" published recently as a CEPR Discussion Paper.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/consequences-brexit-uk-inflation-and-living-standards-first-evidence
 
Description Published write-up of research paper on trade wars and trade blocs 
Form Of Engagement Activity Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact 23 July 2019: Dennis Novy (together with David Jacks) published a write-up of their recent paper on trade wars and trade blocs during the interwar period, documenting evidence of trade bloc formation during the 1930s. The column is entitled "Trade Wars May 'Bloc Up' World Trade" and was published on VoxEU.org on 23 July 2019.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://voxeu.org/article/trade-wars-may-bloc-world-trade
 
Description Radio interview for Deutschlandfunk regarding UK and EU Post Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 22 January 2020: Dennis Novy gave a pre-recorded radio interview with Deutschlandfunk (the German equivalent of BBC Radio 4). The interview was conducted by Marten Hahn, their UK correspondent. The interview centred on the future trade negotiations between the UK and the EU post Brexit, as well as negotiations with other potential partners, in particular the United States. The interview was broadcast on 29 January 2020.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.deutschlandfunkkultur.de/nach-dem-brexit-das-koenigreich-will-zurueck-zum-empire.979.de....
 
Description Research paper discussed in The Washington Post 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 02 June 2019: The Washington Post discusses the paper "Trade Blocs and Trade Wars during the Interwar Period" by David Jacks and Dennis Novy. Link to the Washington Post article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trade-wars-are-here-are-trade-blocs-next/2019/06/02/0cf14ae6-83c6-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html?utm_term=.135bbf631bb2 Reprinted in The Daily Tribune - News of Bahrain: https://www.newsofbahrain.com/views/53937.html Reprinted in the Spokesman Review: http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2019/jun/04/robert-j-samuelson-the-brave-new-world-of-trading-/ Emirates Business http://emirates-business.ae/the-brave-new-world-of-rival-trading-blocs/ Lewiston Sun Journal http://emirates-business.ae/the-brave-new-world-of-rival-trading-blocs/ Link to the research paper: https://www.nber.org/papers/w25830
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trade-wars-are-here-are-trade-blocs-next/2019/06/02/0cf1...
 
Description Researcher Quoted in Spectator Magazine Blog 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 09 April 2019: James Kirkup, director of the Social Market Foundation, quotes me in his Coffee House Blog in Spectator Magazine: "In the words of Dennis Novy of the Warwick University economics department, in trade talks you're either the bully or you're bullied. As part of the EU, Britain was one of the bullies of global trade. Outside, not so much."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-myth-of-the-great-british-brexit-trade-policy
 
Description Seminar at Asian Economic Policy Review Conference on Trade Wars 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Asian Economic Policy Review Conference on Trade Wars, Tokyo, April 2019: This also included some non-academics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Seminar at Higher School of Economics, Moscow 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Higher School of Economics, Moscow, December 2019: There were participants from the Russian central bank.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description TV Interview - RTVS (Radio and Television of Slovakia) on Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press)
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact 17 September 2019: Dennis Novy gave a TV interview with RTVS (Radio and Television of Slovakia) on Brexit and the potential future trading options for the UK and the EU27. This interview was part of a larger piece for their 6 o'clock news programme. Link: https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/archiv/13982/198354 - at around 00:15:02
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.rtvs.sk/televizia/archiv/13982/198354
 
Description The Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Postgraduate students
Results and Impact Virtual Conference on the Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers (with Meredith Crowley, supported by The UK in a Changing Europe and Cambridge-INET), September 2020. Details: 22 September 2020: Dennis Novy organised and led a Virtual Conference on "The Economics of Brexit for Early Career Researchers" (with Meredith Crowley, supported by The UK in a Changing Europe and Cambridge-INET). Early career researchers (post-docs, PhD students and assistant professors) presented their research on Brexit. Meredith and Dennis gave feedback. The presenters prepared blog entries for a general public target audience explaining their research in non-technical terms. Feedback was also given on those blog entries.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/staff/dnovy/ukice_conference.pdf
 
Description Trade Lunch at the Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact 01 August 2019: Dennis Novy attended a "Trade Lunch" at the Bank of England (Structural Economics Division) and presented research on the effects of uncertainty on international trade (based on his paper with Alan Taylor published in the Review of Economics and Statistics). The lunch was organised by Tommaso Aquilante, Senior Economist at the Bank of England and attended by other research economists at the Bank.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description novy: HM Treasury meeting re Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact - 17 April 2018: Dennis Novy had a meeting with Philip Duffy, Director of the Enterprise and Growth Unit at HM Treasury and formerly Border Force Chief Operating Officer, at HM Treasury. The meeting was about the various Brexit options and how they relate to customs and border safety issues.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description novy:panel member HSSRC canada 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 23 May 2018: Dennis Novy served as an expert (panel member) of the international merit review committee for the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in the United Kingdom. Dennis Novy attended a grant reviewing panel meeting in Ottawa, Canada.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018