Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment

Lead Research Organisation: University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics

Abstract

The Bank of England and HM Treasury are currently working with Nottingham and Stanford Universities to run a pilot survey of firms across the UK on their expectations for future growth of sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes. This survey collects expectations from UK firms about the impact of Brexit shocks in a more timely way than other currently available indicators from the ONS, which lag behind events on average by at least 3 months. This proposal seeks to enlarge the panel of firms to allow for greater representativeness of the data, collection of data from the same panel participants over 3 years (we expect further Brexit shocks) and to allow us to conduct detailed analysis of subset of firms by industry, type and region. The data we are collecting is timely and important for immediate policymaking, business decisions and Brexit negotiations. The fact that this project has the full support of the Chief Economists of HM Treasury (Sir David Ramsden) and the Bank (Andrew Haldane) is evidence that the project is timely and important for UK decision making.

This data would be used for three purposes:
A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.

B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.

C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.com

This project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).

Planned Impact

The project is intended to assess the ongoing process of exit from the EU following the referendum result on 23 June 2016 by recording monthly data on uncertainty and business decisions about investment, employment and financing. This has evident impact on monetary and fiscal policymaking and on trade and exit negotiations. Brexit is the largest current policy issue and in collecting this survey data we can provide real-time information by region, industry and firm type to the two of the UK's leading policy making institutions (HM Treasury, Bank of England). Their directly support and involvement in this project highlights how this is a critical issue to them.

We have designed the survey to ensure we address key questions of interest to policymakers to maximize the pathways to impact e.g. through the design of special Brexit questions. A letter from Andy Haldane (attached), Chief Economist at the Bank, is sent to potential panel members as part of the recruitment strategy to ensure take up by firms invited to participate in the decision maker panel. The performance of the survey will be regularly reviewed by a steering group with representatives from HMT, Bank and academia.

Senior policy advisors and chief economists at the Bank and HMT will benefit from more timely basic information on firm responses to unfolding events surrounding Brexit. They have indicated that the proposed project is of first order importance in providing this information which cannot be obtained from official sources e.g. ONS due to data collection lags. The proposed survey has the critical advantage of being timely, comprehensive and carefully designed to address the immediate issue at hand. Much existing business information becomes available only with a significant lag or, if it is timely, is based on small, possibly unrepresentative samples. Viewing our firm level responses at an early stage will ensure that policymakers make more informed decisions and it will help better understand the implications of Brexit and so enable appropriate formulation of policy. We have appointed non-academic collaborators to ensure our results follow the designated pathway to impact at the Bank and HMT.

Research: The project will span three research areas and aim to produce top-journal publications:
(A) Uncertainty: this project provide new measures of subjective uncertainty matched to detailed accounts and Census micro-data around the Brexit uncertainty shock. As such it offers a unique combination of uncertainty measurement and identification
(B) Productivity: a key driver of firm and national productivity differences seems to be management practices, one part of which is the forecasting competence of firms. Linking this forecast data to total factor productivity (TFP) microdata will allow us to explore whether, for example, TFP firms are poor at forecasting and coping with shocks and change.
(C) Behavioral: There is a growing literature emphasizing the importance of cognitive biases in generating phenomenon like over-optimism (over high forecasts) and over-confidence (forecasts with too low variance). We can directly test this and see how firm conditions (competition, volatility), education and demographics shape this.

Business: By creating monthly indices of the forecast impact of Brexit on sales, hiring, investment etc we can also help UK firms to better plan for the impact of Brexit on their industry and customers. Our prior work with www.policyuncertainty.com - which has been extensively used (and carried by Bloomberg, Reuters, HAVER, FRED) - shows how valuable businesses find macro data.

Data: This survey will be available in full to any researchers working with Bank or HMT co-authors, or working in the ONS. We will also produce a monthly index and on-line anonymized micro-data to encourage data use, building on the experience of prior data-sharing projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com used by many thousands of researchers.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description - Since July 2016, we have been constructing a real time, monthly survey of business conditions. At the time of writing (February 2020) the survey has recruited 8,200 firms and has a response rate of 40%.
- Demonstration of the level of economic uncertainty at the firm level which can be reported as an aggregate measure or at the industrial or regional level.
- We can use firm level responses, matched to accounting data through FAME, top analyse the determinants of Brexit uncertainty, such as exporter status, importer status, employer of migrant labour, foreign owned.
- Investigation of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on firm-level investment and employment growth, showing a reduction among firms that are more uncertain. These firms are the most productive firms.
- The quantification of a misallocation effect, whereby more productive firms invest less and less productive firms invest more, shows a reduction of future productivity growth by about ½ percentage point. In context of very low productivity growth (around 1% per annum) since the great financial crisis this represents a reduction of half a year of productivity growth.
- We are also able to observe the expectations, and forecast errors of firms v. actual outcomes and relative to professional forecasters. We can relate these to their characteristics e.g. size, sector, etc.
- We have produced a website at www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
- We are able to produce a Brexit Uncertainty Index on the website.
- We report our results in the Bank of England Agents' Summary every quarter, and offer summary statistics on the Bank of England website each month.
- Our data show that price changes have become more positively skewed since more 90% of firms are raising prices while 10% are lowering them.
- Our data show structural change after covid will lead to less investment in buildings and more in IT and training
- Our results show that sales growth uncertainty has shifted greatly since the pandemic struck: there was a widening in perceived downside risk in 2020 and a sharp increase in upside risk (positive growth in sales) in 2021.
Exploitation Route These findings are being taken forward by policymakers (principally the Bank of England, HM Treasury and BEIS), by industry and the Industry Strategy Council, and by academics who might further investigate the linkages between economic uncertainty and lower productivity. Examples include the Bank of England Evaluation of the EU Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability; Monetary policy decision making: various Inflation reports/Monetary Policy Reports; Monetary policy communication: various MPC member speeches and HM Treasury in the 2018 Budget https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-2018-24-things-you-need-to-know
Sectors Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Retail,Transport

URL http://www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
 
Description 2019 - References In Other Publications
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2020 - References In Other Publications
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2021 - References In Other Publications
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Data used directly by the Bank Of England and taken into consideration when deciding interest rates and the future of the UK economy
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description Assessment of UK Decision to Withdraw from the EU - Treasury Select Committee
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model to draw conclusions about slower investment growth. On pp. 22-23 it states "The Decision Maker Panel survey indicates the uncertainty over Brexit has already weighed on firms' investment decisions. The estimates of the impact of uncertainty used in the scenarios in this report are derived from a structural vector autoregression model based on Haddow et al. (2013), which explicitly accounts for the fact that uncertainty and activity may depend on one another. The current level of uncertainty has been augmented to include evidence of Brexit-related uncertainty from the Bank's Decision Maker Panel. Estimates from this model indicate that even a temporary rise in uncertainty can have a quantitatively significant impact on consumption and investment." A footnote to this paragraph cites our Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin article.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a...
 
Description BEIS ERC - Roundtable - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-for-business-energy-and-industrial-strategy/a...
 
Description Bank HMT Interactions - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Advised into HMT to expand understanding of economic climate and uncertainty
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/hm-treasury
 
Description Bank of England - MPC - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or Improved professional practice
Impact Regular use of DMP data presented and discussed with MPC members as well as being used in discussion within MPC meetings
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/about/people/monetary-policy-committee
 
Description Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2016/november-2016.pdf p. 3 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/march-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/november-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/december-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/february-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/march-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/may-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019.pdf p. 4
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019...
 
Description Business Productivity Review
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Response to the Business Productivity Review Call for Evidence. Published by BEIS
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/business-productivity-review-call-for-evidence
 
Description Cabinet Office - Conversation and Discussion about WFH - No 10 Briefing
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Advised on findings from WFH survey and along with data from the DMP
 
Description Cabinet Office - July 2021 - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/cabinet-office
 
Description Data Used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Regularly sited within the MPC minutes and releases. Monthly presentations and reports are presented directly to the MPC for review. Regular correspondence with MPC members to discuss project findings and results surrounding uncertainty and the future effects.
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description Data Used by the Office of National Statistics
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the ONS, 2020 saw the start of some collaboration between the ONS and DMP in a bid to better understand the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit.
 
Description Data Used by the Treasury
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the Treasury to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding.
 
Description Decision Maker Panel Survey findings - Treasury Select Committee
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact The Bank of England Agent's Network, which makes approx. 9,000 visits to UK businesses across the whole of the UK, has sought to engage the Decision Maker Panel as a tool to help them better gauge the state of UK business. We have initiated monthly calls from January 2019 to disseminate results from the DMP to businesses through the Agent network and to co-ordinate our surveys with theirs. Our results have been reported in Agents' Summary of Business Conditions since Sept 2017, and in the Assessment of EU Withdrawal, and in Bank of England statistics in response to a request from the Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-...
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Reports looking at the changing economic climate and uncertainty surrounding Brexit: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-for-brexit.pdf p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q3.pdf   p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q4.pdf    p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q1.pdf   p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q2.pdf     p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q3.pdf    p 6-7 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q4.pdf     p 6-7
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-...
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Quarterly releases in conjunction with the Bank of England's Agents Network: December 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4 September 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q3 June 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q2 March 2020 - https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q1
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2020/2020-q4
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings by Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact Monthly reports are created and shared with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy to assist in understanding the uncertainty presented by the pandemic during the transition period of Brexit. Regular meetings with central government advisors to report on recent finding.
 
Description Gave Evidence to the International Best Practice Advisory Group (IBPAG) - July 2021
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact The IBPAG helps assess responses to the COVID-19 pandemic by comparator countries in order to inform the policymaking of Her Majesty's Government (HMG). IBPAG advice is generally required on: improving the quantitative analytics underpinning HMG analysis clarifying technical concepts or processes and their significance to analysis making recommendations on how to enhance the quality of analysis suggesting ways to improve monitoring, forecasting and assessment by examining indicators, sources and assumptions The audience was policymakers across government, including senior civil servants, ministers and the prime minister.
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/international-best-practice-advisory-group
 
Description Inflation Report
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-february-2019.pdf p. 42 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/may/inflation-report-may-2019.pdf p. 9, 11, 17-18, 35 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/february/inflation-report-february-2018.pdf   p 17-18 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/november/inflation-report-november-2018.pdf p 15-16
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-fe...
 
Description Innovate UK
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
URL https://www.ukri.org/councils/innovate-uk/?_ga=2.39141475.136892188.1645532289-1987101247.1633434877
 
Description Knowledge Exchange: research to practice
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - a collaboration between the Universities of Nottingham, Stanford and Bank of England (Bank) - is a unique example of knowledge exchange involving academics and policymakers during a critical period of Brexit uncertainty. DMP, a monthly online survey of 8,000 UK companies, was established to measure UK investment, productivity, sales, employment and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum and to inform policy responses by the Bank and UK government (HM Treasury and BEIS). Professor Paul Mizen (Nottingham) instigated the project because the Bank lacked comprehensive data - in sample size or frequency - to help it make monetary policy decisions under uncertainty. Business insight was too often based on small, unrepresentative samples of data, while official statistics were only available with a significant lag. DMP makes a critical (and original) contribution by providing detailed surveys of business executives' expectations and uncertainty by region, industry and business size (following the example of a similar, but smaller scale, survey run by the US Federal Bank and Stanford). Support was quickly garnered from the Bank and HM Treasury (HMT), and funding secured from the ESRC Impact Accelerator Account (with additional ESRC award from 2017-2020). DMP has helped the Bank conceptualise the type of uncertainty that the UK is experiencing due to Brexit, it has identified Brexit as a major source of uncertainty for firms, with most firms expecting a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and higher costs. Critically, Brexit uncertainty has been shown to lower growth in Britain's most productive firms. In late 2016 the Bank could only draw on limited data (see Broadbent 2016), but during 2017 the DMP established a reputation for reliability. Through 2017-18 (and thereafter - see Supporting Material) the economic research insights gathered through DMP were embedded at the highest levels of UK policymaking, far exceeding the partners' objectives. Thus by 2018-2019 the Bank felt able to make extensive reference to DMP in verbal and written evidence to the Parliamentary Inquiry into the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December 2018, quantifying the likely effects of Brexit uncertainty using DMP data, as did Broadbent (2019). DMP has transformed intelligence for the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, who arranged regular briefings on uncertainty, employment, investment and productivity in 2017-2018. DMP's insights have enabled policymakers to determine appropriate interest rate changes and avoid excessive tightening of policy at a time when lower business investment was holding back economic growth. It has facilitated communication of policy through speeches by the Governor (July 2017), Deputy Governor Ramsden (Nov 2017, June 2018) and Chief Economist, Andy Haldane (Nov 2017), press conferences and through quarterly official publications e.g. Inflation Reports (four), Agents' Briefings (four). This knowledge has been widely shared in media. In June 2018 DMP research contributed to an HMT-BEIS British Productivity Review seeking evidence on drivers of UK productivity to better understand policy interventions to improve UK output per head. Later, DMP evidence persuaded the Chancellor to raise the Annual Investment Allowance fivefold to £1 million (Budget 2018) to offset Brexit uncertainty.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a...
 
Description Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies and Trade Shocks, PIIE-Clausen Center, Berkeley
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact .
URL https://clausen.berkeley.edu/conference-on-macroeconomic-implications-of-trade-policies-and-trade-sh...
 
Description Meeting with BEIS officials
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Meeting 16th October at BEIS with the chief economic advisor, Mike Keoghan, about the MES and DMP projects including about 5 of his key analytical staff.
 
Description Midlands Engine - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach Local/Municipal/Regional 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to new or Improved professional practice
Impact Working from home will be a permanent feature for many staff, but occupations with higher remote working rates before the pandemic expect to have higher remote working rates as the pandemic begins to ease. There is a difference between work that can be done from home and what will be done from home. Large cities such as Birmingham and Leeds expect to see a large percentage of people working from home. There is evidence of 'doughnut' patterns, where those in city centers and in the outmost areas are most affected. The pattern reflects differences in affluence. If more people are working from home, will their spending on hospitality, such as coffees and sandwiches, also move closer to home? There is unlikely to be a full transfer of spending as services may not be available in the localities where people live. The report estimates that there is a £3 billion, or 1.5% of 2019 spending, desired reallocation of retail and hospitality spending. This translates to around 77,000 retail and hospitality jobs that could be lost or relocated. Some areas are expected to see job growth in Hospitality and retail, like Little Sutton & Roughley in Birmingham, while the city center is expected to see a dramatic loss. However, the estimated losses are uniformly bigger than any gains. These changes will disproportionately affect already affluent neighborhoods. Areas with higher worker densities, like Birmingham, will see a decline in employment densities. This will reduce the need for office space
URL https://www.midlandsengine.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Covid-reallocation-of-spending.pdf
 
Description ONS Officials - Paul Mizen
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Participation in a advisory committee
Impact The Economic Experts Working Group (EEWG) is a non-statutory body established by the National Statistician. It is a strategic, high-level advisory body offering independent advice from authoritative economic experts to the National Statistician and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on the measurement of the economy and the collection and presentation of economic data for the UK. The EEWG meets formally six times a year and consists of nine EEWG Fellows (appointed through open competition), the Group's chairperson, and senior-level ONS representation. EEWG Fellows also have a hands-on role working with ONS staff on specific issues and giving collective advice on strategic matters. The EEWG has an important role in the governance of economic research undertaken by or on behalf of the ONS, providing advice on the relevance and direction of the research for the ONS and economic statistics. ONS officials 28 Jan 22, 10 Sept 21, 8 Sept 21, 24 Aug 21, 30 March 21, 8 March 21
URL https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/whatwedo/programmesandprojects/economicstatisticstransformation/engag...
 
Description Results from the Decision Maker Panel
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q1/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q1 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2
 
Title Decision Maker Panel 
Description The three objectives of this project are to: (A) build, (B) analyse and (C) share the data from a Bank of England, HM Treasury, Nottingham and Stanford survey of subjective expectations for UK firms. This survey has been running since August 2016 inside the Bank of England and now continues under ESRC and Bank of England, University of Nottingham and Stanford University funding. The project collects 5-bin subjective expectations data on sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes to gauge the impact of economic uncertainty on firms' decision making. This UK survey is based on two highly successful US surveys by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board and the US Census, which Nicholas Bloom (co-PI) helped design and run. We have successfully recruited firms to our panel. Our first team manager (Kate Fisher) who held the post for one year, developed a collection of guidance notes for analysts, protocols and detailed spreadsheets to monitor performance. When she left the project in August 2018, she handed over the management role to Julia Leather who has assumed her responsibilities. We have tested and interviewed more than 100 applicants for the analyst positions, appointing more than 70 to work part time. These analysts make first contact with firms from our sampling frame. We train analysts, incentivise them to recruit firms to our panel, and monitor their performance. We now have over 6,000 firms in the panel. Firms that agree to participate have been added to our Bank of England "Decision Maker Panel" and they receive monthly e-mails requesting a response to a very short (4 minute) monthly survey. The sampling frame of firms is randomly taken from the UK BVD AMADEUS database (which we have free access to) which contains the population of all UK public and private firms. We have extensively tested our sample for evidence of bias, in recruitment to the sample and response to the survey given that they have been recruited, and our findings show no bias in responses, and only small (1%) bias in initial recruitment. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact We have analysed the data to estimate the impact of the Brexit process on investment, employment growth, wages, prices etc of firms across the UK, and by region, industry and type. Our work has been extensively used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, and has appeared in official publications such as the Inflation Report, Quarterly Bulletin and Quarterly Bank Agents' Briefings. It has been used to answer question in Parliament. Our work has been written up and presented many times to central banks and academic audiences, it has been summarised in media articles in the Financial Times, Times, Independent, Guardian. We have accepted invitations to present our work at prestigious UK and US conferences including special sessions and keynotes at the Royal Economic Society and the ESCoE measurement conferences. 
 
Description Bank of England 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution In collaboration with the Bank of England we have recruited over 7000 firms to the Decision Maker Panel. - Since July 2016, we have been constructing a real time, monthly survey of business conditions. At the time of writing (November 2018) the survey has recruited 7,000 firms and has a response rate of 45%. - Demonstration of the level of economic uncertainty at the firm level which can be reported as an aggregate measure or at the industrial or regional level. - We can use firm level responses, matched to accounting data through FAME, top analyse the determinants of Brexit uncertainty, such as exporter status, importer status, employer of migrant labour, foreign owned. - Investigation of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on firm-level investment and employment growth, showing a reduction among firms that are more uncertain. These firms are the most productive firms. - The quantification of a misallocation effect, whereby more productive firms invest less and less productive firms invest more, shows a reduction of future productivity growth by about ½ percentage point. In context of very low productivity growth (around 1% per annum) since the great financial crisis this represents a reduction of half a year of productivity growth. - We are also able to observe the expectations, and forecast errors of firms v. actual outcomes and relative to professional forecasters. We can relate these to their characteristics e.g. size, sector, etc.
Collaborator Contribution In partnership with academics from Nottingham and Stanford Universities, the Bank of England has launched a new monthly survey of senior executives in British businesses - the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - that will enable better measurement of the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. DMP members are polled regularly about their expectations for business conditions and the uncertainty around those expectations. Early results suggest that there is an important relationship between uncertainty and decisions on investment and employment
Impact It is possible to directly attribute the effects of the Decision Maker Panel evidence on monetary policy decisions because the evidence base and deliberations are documented in the Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee meetings and Inflation Reports. These are then explained verbally in 'on the record' statements in Speeches, Inflation Report Press Conferences and evidence to Parliamentary hearings (at the Treasury Select Committee). The Governor noted "that the Bank had been building on the 3,000-member Decision Maker Panel, which had helped in the assessment of the potential impact of Brexit" minutes of a meeting of Court, Bank of England, 11 April 2018 - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Office for National Statistics Collaboration 
Organisation Office for National Statistics
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution ONS and DMP have worked together to find ways that the DMP survey and teh new ONS BICS survey could work together collaboratively. We have held several meetings to coordinate questions, compare sample frames and survey overlap.
Collaborator Contribution Bank of England colleagues have been helping to compare the survey sample frame.
Impact No outputs yet, but we aim to agree a framework for working collaboratively during 2021.
Start Year 2020
 
Description Stanford University 
Organisation Stanford University
Department Department of Economics
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Rapid recruitment of firms to our sample, the use of five bin subjective probability survey questions and follow up with participants has shared best practice.
Collaborator Contribution Links with universities of Chicago, Harvard, MIT, Bocconi, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Impact fiscal studies article mutiple working papers and seminar presentations presentations at international conferences media articles
Start Year 2016
 
Description 2017 - Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact The Sunday Times, December 2017: Only an end to uncertainty will lift all our spirits
Financial Times, December 2017: Labour shortage fears could drive up pay
UK and EU, November 2017: The cost of Brexit related uncertainty
Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds
Market News International, September 2017: BOE CFO Survey: Brexit A Downside Risk But Firms Staying Put
Financial Post, August 2017: London losing status with financial firms as Brexit approaches
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2018 - Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact LexisNexis, December 2018: Weekly Highlights LexisNexis
AccountancyAge, December 2018: Brexit Forecasts Helping of Hindering?
The Times, December 2018: Be braced for more chaos, but give thanks to the Bank
EY ITEM Club, July 2018: Will the clouds clear for the economy?
GLA Economics, July 2018: London's Economy Today
Bloomberg, June 2018: Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit
The Times, June 2018: Brexit pessimism is growing, agents find
The Daily Mail, June 2018: Two thirds of British businesses do not see Brexit as a major cause for concern to the economy
Market News, June 2018: MNI: BOE Agents: Headcount Seen Falling In Consumer Sector
Reuters, June 2018: UK consumer economy slows, manufacturing perks up in BoE, EU surveys
The Guardian, April 2018: For British bosses a bigger headache than Brexit is emerging
ICAEW, April 2018: Brexit's role in global growth trends
MNI, March 2018: Downside Infla Risks Cloud BOE Rate Rise Message
The Guardian, March 2018: Firms handing out inflation-beating pay rises, says Bank of England
City A.M, March 2018: Businesses set to boost investment and expect price inflation to slow
Financial Times, March 2018: Factories set to step up investment
The Independent, February 2018: Brexit 'dampening' UK productivity growth warns deputy Bank of England Governor Dave Ramsden
Financial Times, February 2018: BoE surveys point to long-awaited pay rise for UK workers
Reddit, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England
The Sunday Times, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England
Bloomberg, February 2018: Wages to Migration: Some Takeaways From the BOE Inflation Report
Gestion, January 2018: BoE: Incertidumbre por Brexit perjudica inversiones en Reino Unido
MTA, January 2018: Economic Data This Week
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2019 - Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Bloomberg, November 2019: UK Businesses Put Probability of Brexit Deal in 2020 Below 50%
Reuters, November 2019: Brexit Impasse Takes its Toll on British Business Investment
The New York Times, November 2019: Brexit Impasse Takes its Toll on British Business Investment
The Telegraph, October 2019: Businesses Tell Westminster to 'Get It Sorted' on Brexit as Investment Spending Lags
Investors Chronicle, October 2019: Brexit: Trick or Treat?
Wall Street Journal, October 2019: Financial Markets Face Fresh Wave of Political Uncertainty: 'There's Literally Nowhere To Hide'
The Australian, October 2019: Brexit Fatigue Huirting British Business
The NBER Digest, October 2019: Brexit Uncertainty is Taking It's Toll on The British Economy
The Telegraph, October 2019: UK Damaged 'Speed Limit' for Growth Could Hamper Bank of England Lowering Rates Says Deputy Governor
The Spectator, October 2019: Why Ken Fisher Thinks Brexiting Should be Bullish
The Economist, October 2019: Uncertainty About Brexit is Hampering Business Investment in Britain
Fortune, October 2019: 'Nobody Knows What to Do:' How 3 Years of Brexit Uncertainty Has Paralysed British Business
Financial Times, October 2019: Fall in UK Labour Productivity is Worst in 5 Years
The Telegraph, October 2019: Economy Takes £20bn Hit From Business Investment Plunge Since Brexit Vote
Bloomberg, October 2019: Productivity Suffers as UK Managers Focus on Brexit Readiness
Financial Times, September 2019: Entrenched Uncertainty is a Global Problem
Independent, September 2019: Brexit if Hurting the UK Productivity, and Wages With It
Financial Times, August 2019: Brexit Has Cut Productivity by up to 5% says Bank of England
Reuters, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England
The Daily Mail, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England
The New York Times, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England
Bloomberg, August 2019: Brexit Planning Cut Productivity of UK Firms - Bank of England
The Economist, August 2019: The Chilling Economic Effects of Brexit Uncertainty are Intensifying
Business Telegraph, August 2019: Brexit Cuts Productivity by up to 5%, Says Bank of England
Bloomberg, July 2019: Bank of England Agents Help Policy Makers See Through Brexit Economic Noise
ADVFN, July 2019: UK in the Brexit Dumpster
Yahoo Finance UK, June 2019: British Firms Stockpile £6.6bn of Goods in Run-Up to Brexit
Resolution Foundation, March 2019: Spring forward or fall back?
Business Marker News, February 2019: Bank of England expects UK economy to grow by just 1.2% in 2019
Central Banking, February 2019: BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment
Financial Times, January 2019: Economists Predict the UK Economy's Trajectory in 2019
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2019 - References In Other Publuications 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, December 2019, p. 4, p. 7
Speech by Jonathan Haskel (Member of the MPC), December 2019, p. 4 -5, p. 9-10
Monetary Policy Report, (Data/Charts), November 2019, p. 2, p. 8, p. 20, p. 23, p. 38-43
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, November 2019, p. 4
Speech by Gertjan Vlieghe (External Member of the MPC), October 2019, p. 16
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2019, p. 2-5, p 8, p. 10
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, September 2019, p. 4, p. 6, p. 8
Inflation Report, August 2019, p. 7, p. 10-11, p. 18, p. 29, p. 33
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2019, p. 3-4, p. 7
Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), July 2019, p. 12
Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), July 2019, p. 27, p. 33
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, June 2019, p. 4
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), June 2019, p. 9
Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor and Member of the MPC),May 2019, p. 9
Inflation Report, May 2019, p. 9, p. 11, p. 17, p. 30, p. 35
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, May 2019, p. 4
Summary of the NIESR Business Conditions Forum - The Impact of Uncertainty on the UK Economy, May 2019
Speech by Ben Broadbent (Member of the MPC), May 2019, p. 2 and p. 9
National Institute Economic Review No 248, May 2019, p. 1-2
Speech by Jonathan Haskel (Member of the MPC), March 2019, p. 14 -15
Agents' Summary of Business Conditions, March 2019, p. 1, p. 8-9
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, March 2019, p. 4-6
Speech by Gertjan Vlieghe (External Member of the MPC), February 2019, p. 9
Inflation Report, February 2019, p. 9, p. 10, p. 16-17, p. 41-42
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, February 2019, p. 4
Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), February 2019, p. 1
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2020 - Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Financial Times, December 2020: UK Services Activity Better Than Expected, Despite New Covid Curbs
Bloomberg, November 2020: BOE's Ramsden Says Unclear if Vaccine Warrants Boost to Forecast
Reuters, November 2020: Bank of England's Ramsden Sees Plus For Economy From Vaccine News
The Telegraph, November 2020: Third of Hotels and Restaurants Fear Collapse Over 'Tough Winter'
The Wall Street Journal, September 2020: The Stock Market Barely Faltered in the 1918-20 Pandemic. Is History Repeating Itself?
Financial Times, August 2020: Central Bankers Grapple with Changed Landscape at Jackson Hole
The New York Times, August 2020: As Uncertainty Threatens U.S. Growth, Fed Seeks More Firepower
The Sunday Times, August 2020: V, W or Aarrgh? It Depends on the Virus - And Jobs
The Times, August 2020: New Thinking For a New Normal: Embrace Change or Be Left Behind
Sunday Times, June 2020: The Floor's The Limit - We Must Avoid Negative Interest Rates
Chicago Booth Review, April 2020: The US economy Could Contract 11 Percent in 2020
Financial Times, March 2020: Bank of England Warns of 'Very Sharp' Economic Downturn
New York Times, March 2020: More Firms Expect Brexit Uncertainty to Stretch Into 2021: Bank of England
Reuters, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021: Bank of England
Action Forex, March 2020: 76% of UK firms expect Brexit uncertainty to persist until at least 2021
Nasdaq, March 2020: More firms expect Brexit uncertainty to stretch into 2021 - Bank of England
Markets Insider, March 2020: BoE Survey Shows More Firms See Brexit Uncertainty Lasting Until At Least 2021
Financial Times, February 2020: Business Investment Expected To Pick Up As Brexit Begins To Clear
Financial Times, January 2020: Is The UK Set For a Brexit Bounce?
Financial Times, January 2020: Will the Bank of England Cut Interest Rates?
The Times, January 2020: David Smith: Hoping For The Best on Brexit and World Trade
Independent, January 20202: Brexit: Four in 10 Firms Still Think Uncertainty Will Not Be Resolved in 2020
Financial Post, January 2020: UK Businesses Report Fall in Brexit Uncertainty In Dec - BoE Survey
MoneyAge, January 2020: Brexit Continues to Cause Uncertainty Amongst UK Businesses
The Telegram, January 2020: UK Companies Turn a Little Less Gloomy Over Brexit Impact - BoE Survey
Financial Times, January 2020: UK Hit by Sharpest Deterioration in Manufacturing in 7 Years
Independent, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Forexlive, January 2020: Cable gives back some of the late-year gains
Belfast Telegraph, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Bloomberg, January 2020: U.K. Election Result Reduces Companies' Brexit Uncertainty
The Guardian, January 2020: Business Hope Fading for Brexit Clarity in 2020, Bank Says
The Sun, January 2020: Election Booster, Print Only (p. 47)
Evening Express, January 2020: Brexit Uncertainty Lifted Slightly for Business Leaders - Survey
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2020 - References In Other Publications 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, December 2020, p. 6, p. 9
ONS - Labour Market Overview, UK, December 2020, p. 5
Impact of Covid-19 on UK Businesses - Evidence From the Decision Maker Panel in 2020 Q4, December 2020
Speech by Dave Ramsden, (Deputy Governor), The Potential Long-Term Economic Effects of Covid, November 2020, p. 2, p.11
Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2020, p. 3, p. 23, p. 38-39
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, November 2020, p. 5
Midlands Engine, The State of the Region, October 2020, p. 5, p. 18-19, p. 21, p. 23
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), September 2020, p. 16
Treasury Committee Report, Economic Impact of Coronavirus: the Challenges of Recovery, September 2020, p. 42-43, p. 56
Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, August 2020, p. 20, p. 24
Midlands Engine, Economic Impact of Covid-19, August 2020, p. 3, p. 7
Monetary Policy Report, August 2020, p. 23, p. 42, p. 48
Covid-19's Local Economic Impact on Nottingham - An Initial Assessment, August 2020, Nottingham City Council,
Monetary Policy Committee Minutes, August 2020, p. 5
Speech by Andy Haldane (Member of the MPC), June 2020, p. 11-12
Covid-19 and Brexit: Contrasting Sectoral Impacts on the UK ,VoxEU, June 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, June 2020, p. 6-8
What are the key sources of data for measuring the economy in a crisis?, Economics Observatory, June 2020
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), May 2020, p. 9
Why Is Uncertainty So Damaging For The Economy?, Economics Observatory, May 2020
How is Covid-19 Affecting Businesses in the UK?, LSE, May 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2020, p. 2, p. 9, p. 11, p.14
Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2020, p. 30, p. 36, p. 39-40, p. 56
Financial Policy Committee, Interim Financial Stability Report, May 2020, p. 39
Measuring and Combating the Negative Economic Impacts of Coronavirus, Steven J Davis, Hoover Institution Economic Policy Working Group, April 2020, p. 14, p. 16, p. 19
COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty and Its Consequences, VoxEU Post, April 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, March 2020, p. 7
Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 3
Dave Ramsden (Member of the MPC) Report to the Treasury Committee, February 2020, p. 1-2
Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), February 2020, p. 4
VoxEU, The Brexit vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the UK, February 2020
Monetary Policy Committee Report, (Data/Charts), January 2020, p. 2, p. 19-20, p. 40-41
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, January 2020, p. 3-4, p. 6
Monetary Policy Press Conference, Opening Remarks by The Governor , January 2020
Speech by Michael Saunders (External Member of the MPC), January 2020, p. 9-11
Speech by Mark Carney (Governor of the Bank of England), January 2020, p. 14
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2021 - References in Other Publicaitions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, December 2021, p. 4
European Commission, Annual Research Conference, Vivien Lewis Discussion, November 2021,  12:56
Monetary Policy Committee Report, November 2021, p. 10, p. 25-26, p. 32-33, p. 42-45
Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2021, p. 6, p. 9
A Stronger Economy For The British People, Autumn Budget and Spending Review 2021, p. 12
Productivity and Business Dynamics Through The Lens of COVID-19: The Shock, Risks and Opportunities, SINTRA, ECB, Chiara Criscuolo, October 2021, p. 38
2021 ECB Forum, October 2021
Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, September 2021, p. 8
Monetary Policy Committee Report, August 2021, p. 9, p. 25, p. 38
Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, August 2021, p. 4, p. 7
What has coronavirus taught us about working from home?, Economics Observatory, June 2021
What is the future of commuting to work?, Economics Observatory, May 2021
Monetary Policy Committee Report, May 2021, p. 21, p. 23, p. 28-29
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, May 2021, p. 3
Jonathan Haskel, What is the future of working from home?, Economics Observatory, April 2021
Speech by Michael Saunders, (Member of MPC Committee), Supply and Demand During and After the Pandemic, March 2021, p. 9-13
How has working from home impacted productivity? This UK Survey Has Answers, World Economic Forum, March 2021
Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, March 2021, p. 5
Working From Home is Revolutionising the UK Labour Markey, VoxEU, March 2021
Speech given by Andrew Bailey (Governor of the Bank of England), Resolution Foundation, March 2021, p.5-6, p. 10
Monetary Policy Committee Report, February 2021, p. 8, p. 22, p. 25, p. 37-38, p. 43
Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes, February 2021, p. 5-6
Dave Ramsden Lecture: The Potential Long Term Effects of COVID-19, January 2021
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2021 Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Financial Times, December 2021: Bank of England Seeks To Prove It Is In The 'Price Stability Business'
Reuters, December 2021: UK firms Struggle to Find Staff, See Higher Inflation - BoE Survey
The Times, November 2021: Can a Four-Day Week Be The Key To Solving The Productivity Puzzle?
Financial Times, October 2021:  Treating Companies Mean Will Not Keep Them Keen
EconomicsUK.com, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual
The Times, April 2021: Pluses And Minuses Of The Return To Business As Usual
Insider, April 2021: America's Best Work-From-Home Expert Is Bracing For Turmoil
The Times, March 2021: Can Go-Karts and Ski Slopes Save Town Centres?
The Guardian, March 2021: Our Research Shows Working From Home Works, In Moderation
EconomicsUK.com, March 2021: Now the Economy Braces For The Shock of The New Normal 
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2022 - References in Other Publicaitions 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Speech by Catherine L Mann, Memeber of the MPC: On Returning Inflation Back to Target, January 2022, p. 2, p. 5-7, p. 11
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/
 
Description 2022 Media Coverage 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Financial Times, January 2022: BoE Policymaker Hints At More Interest Rate Rises In The Coming Months
PoundSterling Live January 2022: BoE's Mann: Hike Now To Keep Terminal Rate Low
The Times, January 2022: David Smith: How WFH Averted A Bigger Economic Catastrophe
Financial Times, January 2022: UK Business Confidence Takes A Sharp Hit From Omicron
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2022
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/
 
Description 2ND EUROPEAN WORKSHOP ON POLITICAL MACROECONOMICS 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description ADVFN, July 2019: UK in the Brexit Dumpster 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/advfnnews/51561/uk-in-the-brexit-dumpster
 
Description AccountancyAge, December 2018: Brexit Forecasts Helping of Hindering? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct quotation of DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.accountancyage.com/brexit-forecasts-helping-or-hindering-businesses/
 
Description Andy Haldane - Speech - July 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/andy-haldane-speech-regional-visit-to-yorkshire-and-humb...
 
Description BEIS Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Meeting with the chief economic adviser, Mike Keoghan, about the DMP project. Inclusive of 5 other members of Mike's team.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Bank of England - Quarterly Bulletin, 2017 Q2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Quarterly bulletin from the Bank of England, Tracking the views of the British people, evidence from the DMP. p109-120
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Bank of England - Staff Working Paper, No 780 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Working paper released by the DMP team on the Bank of England website.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/brexit-and-uncertainty-insights...
 
Description Bank of England Conference and Panel Participation - December 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Ben Broadbent - Speech - May 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data and findings: Over half of the respondents to the Bank's Decision Maker Panel, a survey of over 7,000 firms, now count Brexit as one of their three most important sources of risk
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/investment-and-uncertainty-the-value-o...
 
Description Birmingham University Seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Bloomberg, February 2018: Wages to Migration: Some Takeaways From the BOE Inflation Report 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Report from the Bank of Englands Inflation report, with direct reference to the DMP project and data.
Subscription to Bloomberg required to read full report
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http:// www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/wages-to-migration-some-takeaways-from-the-boe-in...
 
Description Bloomberg, July 2019: Bank of England Agents Help Policy Makers See Through Brexit Economic Noise 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and findings, including stock piling caused by Brexit uncertainty
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/boe-agents-help-policy-makers-see-through-brexit-...
 
Description Brexit as a Misallocation Shock, Chicago, October 2018: 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://a852a7e8-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/pdmizen/welcome/%28Analytical%29_%28UV%29_...
 
Description Brexit uncertainty has fallen since the UK general election - VoxEU February 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact After months of political stalemate, Boris Johnson's decisive victory in the December UK general election cleared the way for the UK to leave the EU. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel, a monthly survey of CFOs from around 3,000 UK businesses, to show that Brexit-related uncertainty has fallen since the election. The fall in uncertainty has been larger among more domestically focused businesses, however, and substantial uncertainty remains around the future trading relationship between the UK and the EU. There are some signs that this fall in uncertainty may lead to a modest pickup in investment, but it is still early days.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/brexit-uncertainty-has-fallen-uk-general-election
 
Description Business Marker News, February 2019: Bank of England expects UK economy to grow by just 1.2% in 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Directly Quoted - The Bank's Agents and the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey found that "a growing number of companies are increasing stock building but delaying investment in fixed capital in response to increasing uncertainty."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://marketbusinessnews.com/bank-of-england-expects-uk-economy-to-grow-by-just-1-2-in-2019/196267...
 
Description Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit - Direct reference to DMP, Exit from the AU has lowered investment by 3-4 percentage points
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/u-k-business-pessimism-over-brexit-is-growing-boe...
 
Description Campaign for Social Science, June 2020: Social Science Provides An Essential Evidence Base For The Policy Response To COVID-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact There is a widespread call for an evidence-based response to the pandemic. 'The Science', we are told, informs the government policy on the medical aspects of the problem. We might reasonably ask what evidence base can social science provide to support the policy response to the economic and business aspects of COVID-19? If government is to look to 'The Social Science', what evidence can it depend on?

Our own experience of recent events tells us that the economy has been severely disrupted - many shops have been shut, travel has been restricted, people furloughed or working from home, the schools have been open only to children of frontline workers. This is a situation few of us have experienced before. Uncertainty about the future of our businesses, our jobs and our way of life makes decision making far more difficult than normal. Whether we will return to 'normal' any time soon is equally difficult to determine, since so much depends on when restrictions are lifted, and then whether the pandemic will recede or create a second wave.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://campaignforsocialscience.org.uk/news/social-science-provides-an-essential-evidence-base-for-...
 
Description Central Banking, February 2019: BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment  
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct Quotation of DMP data and findings - The team of researchers presents findings from the Decision Maker Panel, a survey of businesses developed jointly by the BoE and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham. The survey was launched in August 2016, a few months after the UK voted to leave the European Union.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/data/4043231/boe-paper-outlines-results-of-un...
 
Description City A.M, March 2018: Businesses set to boost investment and expect price inflation to slow 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy - August 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description EEA Congress - Pawel Smietank 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact New developments in the world economy - Brexit, Trump and now Covid-19 - have increased calls for economic nationalism. The three papers in this session use rich microdata to examine the actual economic impacts of the Brexit vote and the Trump trade war on firms, workers and regions.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.eeavirtual.org/sessions/brexit-trump-and-de-globalization
 
Description ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Keynote address to ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference. You tube video available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/escoe-conference-economic-measurement-2018/
 
Description ESRC Impact Prize - Finalist - November 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Outstanding Public Policy Impact - Near real-time data on UK business activity and uncertainty provided since 2016 by the pioneering Decision Maker Panel survey has helped shape UK government and Bank of England policy decisions in response to the economic shocks caused by COVID-19 and Brexit.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/about-us/escr-impact-prize/
 
Description ESRC-GSR Actionable Insights Seminar Series - July 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Dear Paul,

On behalf of ESRC and government colleagues from policy and analyst teams, can I thank you again for presenting at our first Actionable Insights seminar yesterday. We thought it was an extremely positive start to the series. The engagement and questions showed interest in your findings amongst policymakers. At peak we had 150 policy stakeholders attend the seminar from across Whitehall, the devolved nations and local policy stakeholders. A breakdown of those attending is provided below. We also had very encouraging feedback from the chair, James Benford.

We'll be sending a short evaluation form to attendees for feedback, to help us shape the seminar series and keep interest high.

We'd also like to provide a short summary for attendees with any further links or reports to your research that you would like to highlight.

If you could provide us with a 250 summary of your talk or research focus; any data or visuals you would want to highlight; and any relevant additional reading materials (send us a link if appropriate) we can include these in our follow up materials for attendees.

We'll look to collate these summaries from all the seminars to report on the series as a whole.

Once again, thanks for your participation. And if you have feedback for us then we'd be pleased to receive it.

With kind regards,

Charlotte

Attendees, Seminar 1 Actionable Insights

GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS
ONS
HMRC
DWP
DHSC
Land Registry
BEIS
Education
HM Treasury
DFT
MOD
DEFRA
Trade
Cabinet Office
Home Office
GLA
Transport
HSSE
CMA
Communities
DFID
Environment Agency
Food
IPO
Justice
Sport England
Trade Remedies
UK Export Finance

DEVOLVED ADMINISTRATIONS
Scotland
Wales
NI

OTHER
ACAS
British Business Bank
UKRI
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.research.ed.ac.uk/en/activities/esrc-gsr-actionable-insights-seminar-series
 
Description EY ITEM Club, July 2018: Will the clouds clear for the economy? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Direct quotation of DMP data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-ITEM-Club-Summer-forecast-2018/$FILE/EY-ITEM-Club-Summe...
 
Description Economics Observatory, May 2020: Which Firms and Industries Have Been Most Affected by Covid-19? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Almost all UK businesses have been badly affected by the spread of Covid-19, but some industries have been hit harder than others. Financial market data and surveys of firms themselves provide insights into the scale of the impact on sales, employment, supply chains and business uncertainty.
While all industries have been negatively affected by the spread of Covid-19, it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. This is for a number of reasons, for example, due to variation in the risks of infection from different activities, the ability of the business to operate remotely, and the ways that policies have affected the current business of the firm and expectations about the future.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.coronavirusandtheeconomy.com/question/which-firms-and-industries-have-been-most-affected...
 
Description Economics Observatory, May 2021: Update: Which firms and industries have been most affected by Covid-19? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Businesses across the UK have been negatively affected by the pandemic, but the damage has not been equal. Certain sectors and certain firms within them have suffered more than others - and many have faced highly uncertain futures.
The pandemic has affected all industries, but it has had a bigger impact on some firms and sectors than on others. The risks of infection from different activities, the ability of businesses to operate remotely and the policies to contain the spread of the virus have each played a role. These have all affected current business and expectations about the future.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.economicsobservatory.com/update-which-firms-and-industries-have-been-most-affected-by-co...
 
Description Escoe - Greg Thwaites - The Impact of COVID-19 on Productivity - November 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact We present forecasts of the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the private sector of a representative industrialised country derived from a firm-level survey. Our estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce TFP by around 5 per cent in the year to 2021Q2. Firms anticipate a large, negative reduction in productivity within firms, which is more than fully accounted for by an increase in the use of intermediate inputs to produce sales. Part of this may not be fully measured in early vintages of official data. The negative within-firms effect is expected to be offset, partially and decreasingly over time, by a positive between-firms effect as employment shrinks most in the least productive sectors, and the least productive firms within them.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/events/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity/
 
Description Federal Reserve Board - Black Swans: New Sources of Global Risks and their Effects - February 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact A group of distinguished economists, risk management professionals and other experts in the financial markets meet twice a year with the president of the New York Fed to discuss financial stability issues and present their views on financial policy.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
 
Description Financial Post, August 2017: London losing status with financial firms as Brexit approaches 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact National newspaper - Article uses DMP data
http:// https://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/london-losing-status-with-financial-firms-as-brexit-approaches
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Financial Times, December 2017: Labour shortage fears could drive up pay 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article published in the times.
http:// https://www.ft.com/content/bbab2b02-e56f-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec - subscription required
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Financial Times, February 2018: BoE surveys point to long-awaited pay rise for UK workers 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact FT subscription required to read full article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ft.com/content/e2742878-116c-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277
 
Description Financial Times, March 2018: Factories set to step up investment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Subscription required to access link
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ft.com/content/89866f58-3270-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03
 
Description Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.ft.com/content/6adf4c56-9eea-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946
 
Description GLA Economics, July 2018: London's Economy Today 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP and it's work alongside the Bank of England Agents network.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/londons_economy_today_no191_260718.pdf
 
Description Gertjan Vlieghe - March 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In a speech to members of the Confederation of British Industry in Birmingham, Gertjan Vlieghe explains that a tight labour market continues to increase domestic inflationary pressures. Along with strong global growth and diminishing downside risks to medium-term inflation, he argues that this outlook is consistent with one or two quarter point increases in Bank Rate per year over the forecast period. Direct reference to the DMP and Data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2018/gertjan-vlieghe-speech-at-birmingham-chamber-of-commerce
 
Description Gestion, January 2018: BoE: Incertidumbre por Brexit perjudica inversiones en Reino Unido 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact French article - Uncertainty over Brexit harms investments in United Kingdom
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://gestion.pe/mundo/boe-incertidumbre-brexit-perjudica-inversiones-reino-unido-224318-noticia/
 
Description Ghent  - 10th Annual Conference on CB Business Surveys and Liaison Programs (CBBS) - August 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Global Forum on Productivity - Webinar 3: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm
 
Description Government Economic Service, Conference day (HM Treasury) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Formal Government conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Greg Thwaites - The Centre for Service Excellence (CenSE) is hosting a seminar on 'The impact of Covid-19 on productivity'. - May 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This study conducted by researchers from the Bank of England, University of Nottingham, and Stanford University analyses the impact of Covid-19 on productivity in the United Kingdom using data copied from a large monthly firm panel survey.

The estimates suggest that Covid-19 will reduce total factor productivity (TFP) in the private sector by up to 5%, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs.

The negative 'within-firm' effect is partially offset by a positive 'between-firm' effect as low productivity sectors, and the least productive firms among them, are disproportionately affected by Covid-19 and consequently make a smaller contribution to the economy.

In the longer run, productivity growth is likely to be reduced by diminished research and development (R&D) expenditure and diverted CEOs' time spent on dealing with the pandemic.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.business-school.ed.ac.uk/event/the-impact-of-covid-19-on-productivity
 
Description Havard Business Review article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Written by Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://hbr.org/2019/03/brexit-is-already-affecting-uk-businesses-heres-how
 
Description IARIW-ESCoE Conference "Measuring Intangible Assets and The Contribution to Growth" - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Slide Pack - https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Organisational-Capital-for-website.pdf
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://escoe-website.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/25105816/Session-2A-Management-Org...
 
Description ICAEW, April 2018: Brexit's role in global growth trends 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Main focus of article - While the Brexit effect is undoubtedly having an impact on UK business investment, it's important to put the story in the context of global growth trends - Direct quote of Bank Of England Inflation report and use of DMP data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://economia.icaew.com/opinion/april-2018/brexits-role-in-global-gorwth-trends-oxford-economics
 
Description Ingenuity Network Breakfast briefing with CBI and 50 business leaders 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Innovate UK - Paul Mizen - November 2021 - Board Presentation 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Innovate UK is the UK's national innovation agency. We support business-led innovation in all sectors, technologies and UK regions. We help businesses grow through the development and commercialisation of new products, processes, and services, supported by an outstanding innovation ecosystem that is agile, inclusive, and easy to navigate.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.ukri.org/councils/innovate-uk/?_ga=2.5777523.136892188.1645532289-1987101247.1633434877
 
Description Invited Seminar (Madrid Spain) - PS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This was an invited seminar at the Bank of Spain.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Jonathan Haskel Speech - March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and finding
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/will-uk-investment-bounce-back-speech-...
 
Description July 2021 Annual Conference of the Global Forum on Productivity joint with Italian presidency of G20 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Productivity gaps across firms are large and persistent in most countries and sectors. These gaps, however, present an important potential for lifting productivity if their underlying causes are addressed. To what extent the diffusion of advanced managerial practices and the overall improvement of workers and managers skills can help narrowing these gaps? How can public policies ensure that the digital transformation and the rise of intangible assets, which have been accelerated by the COVID-19 shock, do not exacerbate but rather reduce existing disparities in income and productivity? These questions become even more pressing as governments are in the process of shaping the path to the post-crisis economic recovery.
Webinar 3 - Janice Eberly, Global Forum on Productivity: Digitalisation, Intangibles and Productivity
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.oecd.org/global-forum-productivity/events/recordingandpresentations-webinars.htm
 
Description LexisNexis, December 2018: Weekly Highlights LexisNexis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data: BoE publishes survey on preparations for Brexit and results from Decision Maker Panel survey

The BoE published the results of a survey carried out by its agents, which looked at companies' preparations for Brexit, to support the BoE's analysis of the impact of EU withdrawal on the UK economy. In the same publication, the BoE also included the latest results from the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey, which was set up to help the BoE to monitor recent developments in the UK economy and assess the implications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.lexisnexis.co.uk/blog/financial-services/weekly-highlights-6-december-2018
 
Description Life changes: these professional sectors largely abandoned by their employees before the Covid - Greg Thwaites 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact 1. In our survey of firms, we ask them about the future path of employment, sales and so on. We expect some firms to shrink and other firms to grow - i.e. we expect reallocation - because this is what they are telling us they expect to happen.
Reallocation is important to ensure that labour and capital get to the places that the economy needs them to be. Reallocation is a normal feature of the economy, and our data show that reallocation increased during the 2008 recession. Furthermore, we know that the Covid-19 recession hit different sectors differently, and also had widely varying effects within sectors. So it is reasonable to expect that we will see a lot of reallocation over coming months, and this is indeed what we find in our survey.
When it comes to mismatch, we know that a larger-than-average fraction of this larger-than-average reallocation will occur across sectors. To the extent that workers and business are specialised in particular sectors, they may not be well suited to the new tasks that other employers want them to perform. We will also see a geographic reallocation of workers who provide services to office workers from city centres to the places those office workers live. So we should expect to see a greater degree of mismatch than usual.
The pandemic is common across the world but there is an additional, specific issue in the UK: Brexit. Brexit will increase the amount of reallocation in the UK, as trade with the EU has become more costly, redirecting resources towards the home market and non-EU countries. To the extent that EU workers previously helped to alleviate mismatches that arose in the UK labour market, this margin of adjustment is no longer available.

2. The process of moving workers and capital from one firm, location or use to another can be costly. Workers need to retrain and build know-how specific to their new jobs. Capital can be physically destroyed when it is no longer needed, as for example when a retail space is refit as an office or a dwelling.

These costs will be larger than usual over coming years because, as our data show, more of the reallocation will happen across sectors.

The costs will be particularly high for older and younger workers, rather than those of middle age. Other data shows that these groups have been most affected by the crisis, in terms of unemployment and furlough. Older workers will find it harder to change jobs and locations. Younger workers have been shown to suffer large pay penalties if they join the labour market.

On the other hand, the increased popularity of home working may afford some workers more time, more flexible employment, and a greater choice of jobs. This could be especially valuable for those with family caring responsibilities, who are disproportionately women. Another positive could be that some high-paid employment may spread more widely across the country.



3. The government should provide extensive support for people to retrain, including for 'horizontal' moves into different but similarly-qualified roles. Furthermore, benefits during periods of job search should be high enough so that workers can take a bit of time to find the best job, rather than just taking the first one. The costs of moving house should not be raised excessively by housing transaction taxes, or by difficulties in relocating when in social housing.

On the firms side, firms need to be able to access capital to grow, and also to be able to restructure their workforce without undue costs. Business premises should be able to change their use easily, to accommodate the sharp change in the geographic location of demand for office and retail space.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/changements-de-vie---ces-secteurs-professionnels-largeme...
 
Description London - EWEPA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel - Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University; Philip Bunn, BoE; Scarlet Chen, Stanford University; Paul Mizen, ESCoE, University of Nottingham; Pawel Smietanka, BoE; Greg Thwaites, LSE Centre for Macroeconomics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.ewepa.org/
 
Description Low Pay Commission - Paul Mizen - September 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description MNI, March 2018: Downside Infla Risks Cloud BOE Rate Rise Message 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact With consumption growth easing and intense competition on the high street and online, the agents report highlighted the downward price pressures faced by the retail sector. At the same, the Bank's Decision Maker Panel survey found finance offices also expected price pressures to ease, but their view was on average that inflation would only slow to 2.5% over the year ahead.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-analysis-downside-infla-risks-cloud-boe-rate-rise-message
 
Description MTA, January 2018: Economic Data This Week 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Manufacturing Technologies Association Economic Data for the week, featuring the Bank of England Agents Summary of Business Conditions, directly quoting the DMP
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.mta.org.uk/resources/economic-data-week-56
 
Description Market News International, September 2017: BOE CFO Survey: Brexit A Downside Risk But Firms Staying Put 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Report on result from the DMP project and the Bank of England agents network
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.marketnews.com/content/boe-cfo-survey-brexit-downside-risk-firms-staying-put
 
Description Market News, June 2018: MNI: BOE Agents: Headcount Seen Falling In Consumer Sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP Data - Representatives were, on average, expecting a modest, but more negative, effect from Brexit. Extrapolating from the results the reports authors estimated that the expected negative impact of Brexit on sales had risen to 3% from just over 2%.

Brexit was cited as one of the three top sources of uncertainty by 37% of respondents and the authors estimated on a simple regression to have lower business investment by 3 to 4 percentage points in the year to mid-2017. The evidence is that the effect of Brexit on investment has not got any larger since then but nor has it unwound.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-boe-agents-headcount-seen-falling-consumer-sector
 
Description Michigan -  2019 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (CAED) Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Brexit as a Misallocation Shock
Nick Bloom (Stanford), Philip Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford), Paul Mizen
(University of Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Gregory Thwaites (World Remit)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b349ster0XGdqEfx00PZP8wCDnMdQrVH/view
 
Description Munich - ifo Institutte workshop on expectations data and macrp 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ifo.de/
 
Description National Association for Business Economics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Among the audience were representatives from Bloomberg, Haver, FRED who would all like to host our data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Nick Bloom, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Uncertainty and Recovery (50 mins onward) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation given at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on the Uncertainty and Recovery of the US economy. Nicholas Bloom presenting from 50 minutes onward.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bvbp9Mf18EM
 
Description Oct 21 - Productivity Growth: Past, Present and Yet to come - New York Ferderal reserve and Advisory panel - Nick Bloom 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Summary
Pre COVID
: Labor productivity and TFP growth 2010 - 2019 were 1.1% and 0.6% respectively

During COVID
: We see in top down (macro data) and bottom - up (aggregated firm) data similar trends
- Labor productivity growth rose to about 3%
- TFP productivity growth fell to about 0.3%

Caused by positive reallocation across sectors and firms, and negative within firm capacity/cost impacts

Post COVID
: I will discuss one positive and three negative factors that could impact productivity
+ Working from home likely increases productivity by about 3% to 5%
- Lost CEO time, lower capital utilization and supply constraints likely negative, but hard to quantify
So, my guess would likely be similar to pre-COVID: LP and TFP growth of about 1% and 0.5%
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.dropbox.com/s/93m5ti2hu6xi0ls/NY_Fed_NickBloom.pdf?dl=0
 
Description Paul Mizen - Meeting with Innovate UK 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact InnovateUK Board would be keen to see a presentation of our findings around a) changing investment patterns after Covid based on DMP data; and b) R&D spending by firms with better/worse management practices. Geeta intends to suggest some dates and then invite us to present for about 45 mins using Powerpoint slides of results.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description PrOPEL Hub - Paul Mizen - Reimagine Management and Productivity in a Post-pandemic World 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact In this session chaired by Dr Cher Li, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley, leading experts on management practices, business performance and industrial policy, explore future trends in management practices and productivity.

Economic uncertainty was on the rise before the COVID-19 pandemic. Research shows how better managed organisations survived and thrived through past economic crises and the current pandemic. The pandemic has accelerated digital transformation, workforce reskilling and new forms of innovation. All of this will require significant experimentation and learning by managers. But it also affords a new opportunity to build better workplaces by reimagining norms around how/where we work and the role of management in enabling these transitions.

In this video, Professors Paul Mizen, Nick Bloom, John Van Reenen and Rebecca Riley each bring a fresh perspective on the role of management practices for productivity, building a productive workforce, and current trends and lessons.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.propelhub.org/reimagine-management-and-productivity-in-a-post-pandemic-world/
 
Description Presentation at Banque de France, Banca d'Italia, Science Po conference, Paris: Why Did Firms Invest So Little and Hold So Much Cash Since the Great Financial Crisis? An Exploration of Economic Uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/paul_mizen_0.pdf
 
Description Presentation at IMF Research and Fiscal Affairs Departments  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact I gave a presentation of our findings about Covid and productivity
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
 
Description Presentation at Svriges Rijksbank conference, Stockholm 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Blackrock 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation covering the following areas of discussion:
Uncertainty rose to incredible levels - our series mostly at all time peaks during COVID pandemic
Financial (Wall Street) uncertainty measures falling but real (Main Street) still high
? Uncertainty could slow the recovery by impeding investment, hiring and consumption rebound*
https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CBO1.pptx
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/
 
Description Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016,2017
 
Description Presentation to Congressional Budget Office 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presenation to include the follow subject areas:
Uncertainty rose to incredible levels - our series mostly at all time peaks during COVID pandemic
Financial (Wall Street) uncertainty measures falling but real (Main Street) still high
? Uncertainty could slow the recovery by impeding investment, hiring and consumption rebound*
https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/CBO1.pptx
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/
 
Description Presentation to Director of Economics and staff, HM Treasury - June 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presentation to Federal Reserve, Philadelphia conference  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Federal Reserve, San Francisco 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact /
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to IMF Research Department 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway from the University of Nottingham
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity Pre-2006,2016
 
Description Public Lecture - Central Bank of Malta 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This lecture will report on the findings of a major new Bank of England survey of UK firms - the Decision Maker Panel - to assess the impact of the June 2016 referendum. Evidence shows Brexit has created a persistent increase in uncertainty, which has already reduced UK business investment and productivity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.centralbankmalta.org/en/event-details/62
 
Description Reddit, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article released to highlight the downturn in investment due to Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/7x7s5o/brexit_wiped_out_77bn_of_business_investment_say...
 
Description Resolution Foundation, March 2019: Spring forward or fall back? - March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/spring-forward-or-fall-back-the-questions-facing-t...
 
Description Reuters, June 2018: UK consumer economy slows, manufacturing perks up in BoE, EU surveys 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct us of DMP Data - The BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey of more than 4,000 firms with at least 10 staff showed that just under 40 percent viewed Brexit as one of their top three sources of uncertainty - a figure that has changed little over the past year.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-boe/uk-consumer-economy-slows-manufacturing-perks-...
 
Description Rome Conference  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation at conference on firm dynamics organised by the Banca d'Italia. Mix of academics and central bankers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Royal Economic Society - Workshop on Productivity and Structural Change - Paul Mizen - Nov 21 - Threadneedle Street 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact To be held on 25-26 November, this workshop, jointly organised by the Bank of England, MMF , NIESR and The Productivity Institute is on Productivity and Structural Change, a topic that is particularly pertinent after the still ongoing Covid-19 pandemic.

This feeds into one of the TPI themes (Macroeconomic Trends and Policy) and is also related to The Transformed World part of the BoE's Research Agenda. In this hybrid workshop spread over two days we bring together some recent research that we hope will shed light on some of the issues.

Physical participation is at the Bank of England Conference Centre in Threadneedle Street with simultaneous streaming as an online interactive event.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.res.org.uk/events-page/workshop-on-productivity-and-structural-change.html
 
Description SIEPR Economic Summit 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact What's Next for Brexit, Britain, and the EU? - Presented by Nick Bloom
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Seminar to European Investment Bank, Luxembourg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), June 2020: How Working From Home Works Out 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact Working from home (WFH) is dominating our lives. If you haven't experienced the phenomenon directly, you've undoubtedly heard all about it, as U.S. media coverage of working from home jumped 12,000 percent since January.
The recent work has highlighted several recurring themes, each of which carries policy questions - either for businesses or public officials. But the bottom line is clear: Working from home will be very much a part of our post-COVID economy. So the sooner policymakers and business leaders think of the implications of a home-based workforce, the better our firms and communities will be positioned when the pandemic subsides.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://siepr.stanford.edu/research/publications/how-working-home-works-out
 
Description Strathclyde University Presentation  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation of DMP findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description The Daily Mail, June 2018: Two thirds of British businesses do not see Brexit as a major cause for concern to the economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Bank of England reference to uncertainty and Brexit, indirect use of DMP data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010,2018
URL https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5898909/Two-thirds-British-businesses-not-Brexit-major-caus...
 
Description The Economist, August 2019: The Chilling Economic Effects of Brexit Uncertainty are Intensifying 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct citation - After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions. In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms, representing 14% of private-sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/08/15/the-chilling-economic-effects-of-brexit-u...
 
Description The Guardian, April 2018: For British bosses a bigger headache than Brexit is emerging 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Indirect use of DMP data, DMP data reflected through the Agents network finding of 2/5 of more than 3k firms that they surveyed had not spend any time at all on a weekly basis planning for Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/09/for-british-bosses-a-bigger-headache-than-brexit-is...
 
Description The Guardian, March 2018: Firms handing out inflation-beating pay rises, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Pres release directly stating DMP project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/mar/28/markets-nervous-after-tech-shakeout-and-ahead-o...
 
Description The Independent, February 2018: Brexit 'dampening' UK productivity growth warns deputy Bank of England Governor Dave Ramsden 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article looking at the impact of Brexit, direct reference to the DMP and data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-productivity-growth-bank-of-england-dave-...
 
Description The Productivity Institute Research Conference - Paul Mizen - November 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.productivity.ac.uk/events/the-productivity-institute-research-conference-2/
 
Description The Sunday Times, December 2017: Only an end to uncertainty will lift all our spirits 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article relating to the uncertainty from the referendum and the Brexit deadline
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-only-an-end-to-uncertainty-will-lift-all-our-spirits-...
 
Description The Sunday Times, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-wiped-out-7-7bn-of-business-investment-says-bank-of-englan...
 
Description The Times, December 2018: Be braced for more chaos, but give thanks to the Bank 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct link to DMP and Brexit Uncertainty
Subcription required to read full article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-be-braced-for-more-chaos-but-give-thanks-to-the-bank-...
 
Description The Times, June 2018: Brexit pessimism is growing, agents find 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Subscription required to access
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-reports-that-most-businesses-expect-brexit-to-hit...
 
Description The economic impact of coronavirus on UK businesses: Early evidence from the Decision Maker Panel - VoxEU March 2020 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The spread of COVID-19 has created an important new source of concern for firms. This column reports the findings of the latest Decision Maker Panel survey of UK CFOs, which show that businesses expected the spread of the virus to have a large impact on their sales over the next year. The impacts on sales were expected to be material across all sectors, but businesses in accommodation and food, leisure and transport services expected to be most severely impacted. The survey also suggests that COVID-19 is now a more important source of uncertainty than Brexit for most UK businesses.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impact-coronavirus-uk-businesses
 
Description Thu, May 27 11:00 AM Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham Host: Kevin Kliesen "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity" 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Thu, May 27 11:00 AM
Speaker: Paul Mizen, University of Nottingham
Host: Kevin Kliesen
"The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity"
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://research.stlouisfed.org/conferences/econ_sem/past.html
 
Description UK and EU, November 2017: The cost of Brexit related uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Article looking at the Economic cost of uncertainty on the run up to Brexit from the Results of the referendum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-cost-of-brexit-related-uncertainty/
 
Description University of Edinburgh - Seminar May 2021 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Nick Bloom presentation on findings from both Covid and Brexit grant
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.ed.ac.uk/economics/research/seminars/semester-two-20-21
 
Description University of Nottingham, Vision, June 2020: Integrated, Agile Evidence From Social Scientists is Helping Policymakers Respond to COVID-19 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Integrated, agile evidence from social scientists is helping policymakers respond to COVID-19
The ability to supply reliable business data in almost real-time limits the damage caused by uncertainty and is helping the UK plan for recovery
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/vision/integrated-agile-evidence
 
Description VOx-EU - Jan 2021 - The impact of Covid-19 on productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity
 
Description Venice - CINTIA Workshop - June 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Understanding Brexit-Related Uncertainties Exploration of the Decision Maker Panel Survey

SMIETANKA PAWEL
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://cintia-italy.it/events/157-workshop-expectations-and-risks-affecting-households-and-firms-mi...
 
Description VoxEU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact New survey evidence on the impact of Brexit on UK firms
Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen 05 October 2017
UK economic performance has been poor since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, but has not been the catastrophe that many predicted. This column draws four results from the evidence gathered in the new Decision Maker Panel survey of around 2,500 businesses in the UK. While most firms expect a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and costs, only larger firms and those that are more exposed to international markets are likely to think that they might move part of their business abroad.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://voxeu.org/article/new-survey-evidence-impact-brexit-uk-firms
 
Description VoxEU Post, January 2021: The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Covid-19 shock has had asymmetric effects across sectors of the economy, with those sectors that involve the most social contact in consumption bearing the brunt. This column uses data from the Decision Maker Panel business survey data to assess how the spread of Covid-19 and measures to contain it are likely to affect productivity. It estimates total factor productivity in the UK private sector is likely to be lower than it would have been, by up to 5% in 2020 Q4, falling back to a 1% reduction in the medium term. Firms anticipate a large reduction in 'within-firm' productivity, primarily because measures to contain Covid-19 are expected to increase intermediate costs. Since the pandemic disproportionally affected firms in low-productivity sectors, and the least productive firms within these sectors, these become a smaller part of the economy and therefore a positive 'between-firm' reallocation effect partially offsets the negative 'within-firm' effect.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://voxeu.org/article/impact-covid-19-productivity
 
Description VoxEU Post, March 2020: The Economic Impact of Coronavirus on UK Businesses 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The spread of COVID-19 has created an important new source of concern for firms. This column reports the findings of the latest Decision Maker Panel survey of UK CFOs, which show that businesses expected the spread of the virus to have a large impact on their sales over the next year. The impacts on sales were expected to be material across all sectors, but businesses in accommodation and food, leisure and transport services expected to be most severely impacted. The survey also suggests that COVID-19 is now a more important source of uncertainty than Brexit for most UK businesses.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impact-coronavirus-uk-businesses
 
Description VoxEU Post, May 2020: Coronavirus Expected To Reduce UK Firms' Sales By Over 40% In Q2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on many countries around the world. This column presents results from a survey of CFOs conducted in mid-April 2020, which show that businesses in the UK expected the spread of Covid-19 to reduce sales by just over 40%, relative to what would have otherwise happened. Large impacts on employment and investment were also expected. The impacts were expected to be concentrated in low productivity, low wage sectors. Failures in supply chains are likely to be a factor holding back output too. There was a further large increase in uncertainty in April.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://voxeu.org/article/coronavirus-expected-reduce-uk-firms-sales-over-40-q2
 
Description VoxEU, Nov 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP and Data - 4 charts utilised within report
Responses from the latest survey of around 3,000 businesses in the UK, using the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel (Bank of England 2018),1 give us four key findings about the level and impact of Brexit uncertainty.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment
 
Description What Works Centre For Local Economic Growth - Monitoring and evaluation during the recovery - Mizen/Riley - September 21 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact This is the last event in a series commissioned by the Government's Cities and Local Growth Unit. The aim is to help local institutions develop their approach to economic recovery, in 2021 and beyond. In this seminar, our speakers will provide evidence-based insights into some of the most important issues facing business post-Covid.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2021
URL https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pO_xSV2uuX8
 
Description Workshop (New York, USA) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized an international workshop on November 21st and 22nd at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the workshop was to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys. The workshop will take place once a year and will alternate between Frankfurt and New York. In addition to paper presentations, the program featured two plenary sessions by Olivier Coibion (University of Texas Austin) and Ulrike Malmendier (University of California - Berkeley).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description World Bank Event 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the global economy into its deepest recession since the Second World War. The pandemic is likely to leave lasting scars ranging from lower investment to the erosion of human capital. Ultimately, this may lower productivity and limit income growth. Conversely, the pandemic also raises the possibility of large structural changes to the global economy, some of which may be productivity-enhancing.

How will longer-term growth prospects in emerging markets be affected? What policies should be enacted to limit the damage from COVID-19? At this event, esteemed experts in economics will discuss these questions in light of a new World Bank Group report, Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies. Panelists will consider many possible outcomes for emerging market economies and discuss how they can boost productivity by taking advantage of structural economic changes.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2020
URL https://live.worldbank.org/productivity-growth-after-pandemic