Measuring the Impact of Brexit on UK Investment, Productivity, Sales and Employment

Lead Research Organisation: University of Nottingham
Department Name: Sch of Economics

Abstract

The Bank of England and HM Treasury are currently working with Nottingham and Stanford Universities to run a pilot survey of firms across the UK on their expectations for future growth of sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes. This survey collects expectations from UK firms about the impact of Brexit shocks in a more timely way than other currently available indicators from the ONS, which lag behind events on average by at least 3 months. This proposal seeks to enlarge the panel of firms to allow for greater representativeness of the data, collection of data from the same panel participants over 3 years (we expect further Brexit shocks) and to allow us to conduct detailed analysis of subset of firms by industry, type and region. The data we are collecting is timely and important for immediate policymaking, business decisions and Brexit negotiations. The fact that this project has the full support of the Chief Economists of HM Treasury (Sir David Ramsden) and the Bank (Andrew Haldane) is evidence that the project is timely and important for UK decision making.

This data would be used for three purposes:
A) Research: We would investigate the impact of the Brexit (and other) shocks, in terms of both uncertainty but also mean impacts. Armed with our large panel of at least 2500 firms per month, and after matching this data into annual accounts data from Amadeus, industry and regional data (e.g. LFS and Comtrade) and ONS micro-data, we will then investigate a number of questions. For example, how has Brexit impacted investment and hiring, how does this vary across regions, industries, firm sizes, ages and growth rates? How is this related to the initial enthusiasm for Brexit, and how are other policies affecting this? Are firms expectations consistent with the eventual outcomes (since we follow these firms over time) and what factors appear to influence these expectations? Are firms over-optimistic (too high mean) and over-confident (too high variance) as is often seen in surveys of senior managers? The project will generate important answers to these questions, which will be used to generate international journal publications, as we draw upon unique and timely data during a period of immense change. The basis of the evaluation of the data will be detailed economic analysis using state of the art panel data methods.

B) Policy: The Bank and Treasury are both responding to the Brexit shock with only limited guidance on its impact on the UK economy. Having a minimum panel of 2500 firms at high frequency (monthly) will provide the data that we (and others) can use to explore uncertainty, subjective views of economic conditions and investment, sales and employment impacts by region and industry. We will introduce specialized questions to evaluate policy announcements on Brexit dates, policy positions on trade, immigration and steps to mitigate its impact.

C) Data: Following on prior projects we will rapidly make available public indices of sales, investment, employment and price sentiments (e.g. the size weighted average monthly expected changes, and some lower frequency regional and industry indices). This will be extremely useful for policy makers, but also private firms trying to navigate the Brexit process. Secondly, we will provide on-line anonymized micro-data for business users and academics, and for registered users the full micro-data (confidentially). Our commitment to do this is highlighted by the extensive online provision in prior projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com and www.policyuncertainty.com

This project will provide cutting-edge results, both in terms of the academic analysis but also in the service it provides to key policy institutions such as HM Treasury and the Bank of England. This is made possible by the unique data set developed by a trans-Atlantic collaboration of Professors Mizen and Bloom and the specialist inputs of the C-Is in the Bank of England (Thwaites and Young).

Planned Impact

The project is intended to assess the ongoing process of exit from the EU following the referendum result on 23 June 2016 by recording monthly data on uncertainty and business decisions about investment, employment and financing. This has evident impact on monetary and fiscal policymaking and on trade and exit negotiations. Brexit is the largest current policy issue and in collecting this survey data we can provide real-time information by region, industry and firm type to the two of the UK's leading policy making institutions (HM Treasury, Bank of England). Their directly support and involvement in this project highlights how this is a critical issue to them.

We have designed the survey to ensure we address key questions of interest to policymakers to maximize the pathways to impact e.g. through the design of special Brexit questions. A letter from Andy Haldane (attached), Chief Economist at the Bank, is sent to potential panel members as part of the recruitment strategy to ensure take up by firms invited to participate in the decision maker panel. The performance of the survey will be regularly reviewed by a steering group with representatives from HMT, Bank and academia.

Senior policy advisors and chief economists at the Bank and HMT will benefit from more timely basic information on firm responses to unfolding events surrounding Brexit. They have indicated that the proposed project is of first order importance in providing this information which cannot be obtained from official sources e.g. ONS due to data collection lags. The proposed survey has the critical advantage of being timely, comprehensive and carefully designed to address the immediate issue at hand. Much existing business information becomes available only with a significant lag or, if it is timely, is based on small, possibly unrepresentative samples. Viewing our firm level responses at an early stage will ensure that policymakers make more informed decisions and it will help better understand the implications of Brexit and so enable appropriate formulation of policy. We have appointed non-academic collaborators to ensure our results follow the designated pathway to impact at the Bank and HMT.

Research: The project will span three research areas and aim to produce top-journal publications:
(A) Uncertainty: this project provide new measures of subjective uncertainty matched to detailed accounts and Census micro-data around the Brexit uncertainty shock. As such it offers a unique combination of uncertainty measurement and identification
(B) Productivity: a key driver of firm and national productivity differences seems to be management practices, one part of which is the forecasting competence of firms. Linking this forecast data to total factor productivity (TFP) microdata will allow us to explore whether, for example, TFP firms are poor at forecasting and coping with shocks and change.
(C) Behavioral: There is a growing literature emphasizing the importance of cognitive biases in generating phenomenon like over-optimism (over high forecasts) and over-confidence (forecasts with too low variance). We can directly test this and see how firm conditions (competition, volatility), education and demographics shape this.

Business: By creating monthly indices of the forecast impact of Brexit on sales, hiring, investment etc we can also help UK firms to better plan for the impact of Brexit on their industry and customers. Our prior work with www.policyuncertainty.com - which has been extensively used (and carried by Bloomberg, Reuters, HAVER, FRED) - shows how valuable businesses find macro data.

Data: This survey will be available in full to any researchers working with Bank or HMT co-authors, or working in the ONS. We will also produce a monthly index and on-line anonymized micro-data to encourage data use, building on the experience of prior data-sharing projects like www.worldmanagementsurvey.com used by many thousands of researchers.

Publications

10 25 50
 
Description - Since July 2016, we have been constructing a real time, monthly survey of business conditions. At the time of writing (February 2020) the survey has recruited 8,200 firms and has a response rate of 40%.
- Demonstration of the level of economic uncertainty at the firm level which can be reported as an aggregate measure or at the industrial or regional level.
- We can use firm level responses, matched to accounting data through FAME, top analyse the determinants of Brexit uncertainty, such as exporter status, importer status, employer of migrant labour, foreign owned.
- Investigation of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on firm-level investment and employment growth, showing a reduction among firms that are more uncertain. These firms are the most productive firms.
- The quantification of a misallocation effect, whereby more productive firms invest less and less productive firms invest more, shows a reduction of future productivity growth by about ½ percentage point. In context of very low productivity growth (around 1% per annum) since the great financial crisis this represents a reduction of half a year of productivity growth.
- We are also able to observe the expectations, and forecast errors of firms v. actual outcomes and relative to professional forecasters. We can relate these to their characteristics e.g. size, sector, etc.
- We have produced a website at www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
- We are able to produce a Brexit Uncertainty Index on the website.
- We report our results in the Bank of England Agents' Summary every quarter, and offer summary statistics on the Bank of England website each month.
Exploitation Route These findings are being taken forward by policymakers (principally the Bank of England, HM Treasury and BEIS), by industry and the Industry Strategy Council, and by academics who might further investigate the linkages between economic uncertainty and lower productivity. Examples include the Bank of England Evaluation of the EU Withdrawal Agreement presented to Parliament: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability; Monetary policy decision making: various Inflation reports/Monetary Policy Reports; Monetary policy communication: various MPC member speeches and HM Treasury in the 2018 Budget https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-2018-24-things-you-need-to-know
Sectors Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Agriculture, Food and Drink,Chemicals,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Retail,Transport

URL http://www.decisionmakerpanel.co.uk
 
Description The research has addressed one of the most consequential policy decisions in the post war period. Leaving the EU and the terms under which we leave represents a substantial shock to business conditions that affects investment decisions, employment decisions, locational decisions, exporting and importing decisions and supply chains. Policymakers including the Bank of England, HM Treasury and BEIS would need tools to evaluate the business and economic environment, in order to consider their policy options. These policy decisions include the timing of actions such as when/whether to adjust interest rates, taxes and allowances, and implement industrial strategies. Detailed data available by region, industry and by firm size is available from monthly online surveys provided by the Decision Maker Panel in all these contexts. Further details of how the findings have been reported or used by others are available here: https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/references-in-other-publications/ Media mentions are here: https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/media/ Outputs are here: https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/research-publications/ Sample resentations are here: https://decisionmakerpanel.co.uk/presentations/
First Year Of Impact 2016
Sector Aerospace, Defence and Marine,Chemicals,Construction,Creative Economy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Education,Electronics,Energy,Environment,Financial Services, and Management Consultancy,Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Manufacturing, including Industrial Biotechology,Pharmaceuticals and Medical Biotechnology,Retail,Transport
Impact Types Economic,Policy & public services

 
Description Assessment of UK Decision to Withdraw from the EU - Treasury Select Committee
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model to draw conclusions about slower investment growth. On pp. 22-23 it states "The Decision Maker Panel survey indicates the uncertainty over Brexit has already weighed on firms' investment decisions. The estimates of the impact of uncertainty used in the scenarios in this report are derived from a structural vector autoregression model based on Haddow et al. (2013), which explicitly accounts for the fact that uncertainty and activity may depend on one another. The current level of uncertainty has been augmented to include evidence of Brexit-related uncertainty from the Bank's Decision Maker Panel. Estimates from this model indicate that even a temporary rise in uncertainty can have a quantitatively significant impact on consumption and investment." A footnote to this paragraph cites our Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin article.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a...
 
Description Bank of England - Monetary Policy Committee Summary and Minutes
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2016/november-2016.pdf p. 3 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/march-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/november-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2018/december-2018.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/february-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/march-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/may-2019.pdf p. 4 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019.pdf p. 4
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2019/june-2019...
 
Description Business Productivity Review
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact Response to the Business Productivity Review Call for Evidence. Published by BEIS
URL https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/business-productivity-review-call-for-evidence
 
Description Decision Maker Panel Survey findings - Treasury Select Committee
Geographic Reach Europe 
Policy Influence Type Gave evidence to a government review
Impact The Bank of England Agent's Network, which makes approx. 9,000 visits to UK businesses across the whole of the UK, has sought to engage the Decision Maker Panel as a tool to help them better gauge the state of UK business. We have initiated monthly calls from January 2019 to disseminate results from the DMP to businesses through the Agent network and to co-ordinate our surveys with theirs. Our results have been reported in Agents' Summary of Business Conditions since Sept 2017, and in the Assessment of EU Withdrawal, and in Bank of England statistics in response to a request from the Parliamentary Treasury Select Committee.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-...
 
Description Direct Use of Data and Findings In Bank of England Agents Summaries
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact Reports looking at the changing economic climate and uncertainty surrounding Brexit: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-for-brexit.pdf p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q3.pdf   p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2017/2017-q4.pdf    p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q1.pdf   p 7-9 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q2.pdf     p 7-8 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q3.pdf    p 6-7 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/2018-q4.pdf     p 6-7
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/agents-summary/2018/agents-survey-on-preparations-...
 
Description Inflation Report
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-february-2019.pdf p. 42 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/may/inflation-report-may-2019.pdf p. 9, 11, 17-18, 35 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/february/inflation-report-february-2018.pdf   p 17-18 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2018/november/inflation-report-november-2018.pdf p 15-16
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/inflation-report/2019/february/inflation-report-fe...
 
Description Knowledge Exchange: research to practice
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - a collaboration between the Universities of Nottingham, Stanford and Bank of England (Bank) - is a unique example of knowledge exchange involving academics and policymakers during a critical period of Brexit uncertainty. DMP, a monthly online survey of 8,000 UK companies, was established to measure UK investment, productivity, sales, employment and economic uncertainty following the EU referendum and to inform policy responses by the Bank and UK government (HM Treasury and BEIS). Professor Paul Mizen (Nottingham) instigated the project because the Bank lacked comprehensive data - in sample size or frequency - to help it make monetary policy decisions under uncertainty. Business insight was too often based on small, unrepresentative samples of data, while official statistics were only available with a significant lag. DMP makes a critical (and original) contribution by providing detailed surveys of business executives' expectations and uncertainty by region, industry and business size (following the example of a similar, but smaller scale, survey run by the US Federal Bank and Stanford). Support was quickly garnered from the Bank and HM Treasury (HMT), and funding secured from the ESRC Impact Accelerator Account (with additional ESRC award from 2017-2020). DMP has helped the Bank conceptualise the type of uncertainty that the UK is experiencing due to Brexit, it has identified Brexit as a major source of uncertainty for firms, with most firms expecting a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and higher costs. Critically, Brexit uncertainty has been shown to lower growth in Britain's most productive firms. In late 2016 the Bank could only draw on limited data (see Broadbent 2016), but during 2017 the DMP established a reputation for reliability. Through 2017-18 (and thereafter - see Supporting Material) the economic research insights gathered through DMP were embedded at the highest levels of UK policymaking, far exceeding the partners' objectives. Thus by 2018-2019 the Bank felt able to make extensive reference to DMP in verbal and written evidence to the Parliamentary Inquiry into the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December 2018, quantifying the likely effects of Brexit uncertainty using DMP data, as did Broadbent (2019). DMP has transformed intelligence for the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, who arranged regular briefings on uncertainty, employment, investment and productivity in 2017-2018. DMP's insights have enabled policymakers to determine appropriate interest rate changes and avoid excessive tightening of policy at a time when lower business investment was holding back economic growth. It has facilitated communication of policy through speeches by the Governor (July 2017), Deputy Governor Ramsden (Nov 2017, June 2018) and Chief Economist, Andy Haldane (Nov 2017), press conferences and through quarterly official publications e.g. Inflation Reports (four), Agents' Briefings (four). This knowledge has been widely shared in media. In June 2018 DMP research contributed to an HMT-BEIS British Productivity Review seeking evidence on drivers of UK productivity to better understand policy interventions to improve UK output per head. Later, DMP evidence persuaded the Chancellor to raise the Annual Investment Allowance fivefold to £1 million (Budget 2018) to offset Brexit uncertainty.
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/eu-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-a...
 
Description Macroeconomic Implications of Trade Policies and Trade Shocks, PIIE-Clausen Center, Berkeley
Geographic Reach North America 
Policy Influence Type Influenced training of practitioners or researchers
Impact .
URL https://clausen.berkeley.edu/conference-on-macroeconomic-implications-of-trade-policies-and-trade-sh...
 
Description Meeting with BEIS officials
Geographic Reach National 
Policy Influence Type Implementation circular/rapid advice/letter to e.g. Ministry of Health
Impact Meeting 16th October at BEIS with the chief economic advisor, Mike Keoghan, about the MES and DMP projects including about 5 of his key analytical staff.
 
Description Results from the Decision Maker Panel
Geographic Reach Multiple continents/international 
Policy Influence Type Citation in other policy documents
Impact https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q1/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q1 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/agents-summary/2019/2019-q2/results-from-the-dmp-2019-q2
 
Title Decision Maker Panel 
Description The three objectives of this project are to: (A) build, (B) analyse and (C) share the data from a Bank of England, HM Treasury, Nottingham and Stanford survey of subjective expectations for UK firms. This survey has been running since August 2016 inside the Bank of England and now continues under ESRC and Bank of England, University of Nottingham and Stanford University funding. The project collects 5-bin subjective expectations data on sales, employment, investment, costs and other outcomes to gauge the impact of economic uncertainty on firms' decision making. This UK survey is based on two highly successful US surveys by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Board and the US Census, which Nicholas Bloom (co-PI) helped design and run. We have successfully recruited firms to our panel. Our first team manager (Kate Fisher) who held the post for one year, developed a collection of guidance notes for analysts, protocols and detailed spreadsheets to monitor performance. When she left the project in August 2018, she handed over the management role to Julia Leather who has assumed her responsibilities. We have tested and interviewed more than 100 applicants for the analyst positions, appointing more than 70 to work part time. These analysts make first contact with firms from our sampling frame. We train analysts, incentivise them to recruit firms to our panel, and monitor their performance. We now have over 6,000 firms in the panel. Firms that agree to participate have been added to our Bank of England "Decision Maker Panel" and they receive monthly e-mails requesting a response to a very short (4 minute) monthly survey. The sampling frame of firms is randomly taken from the UK BVD AMADEUS database (which we have free access to) which contains the population of all UK public and private firms. We have extensively tested our sample for evidence of bias, in recruitment to the sample and response to the survey given that they have been recruited, and our findings show no bias in responses, and only small (1%) bias in initial recruitment. 
Type Of Material Improvements to research infrastructure 
Year Produced 2016 
Provided To Others? No  
Impact We have analysed the data to estimate the impact of the Brexit process on investment, employment growth, wages, prices etc of firms across the UK, and by region, industry and type. Our work has been extensively used by the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, and has appeared in official publications such as the Inflation Report, Quarterly Bulletin and Quarterly Bank Agents' Briefings. It has been used to answer question in Parliament. Our work has been written up and presented many times to central banks and academic audiences, it has been summarised in media articles in the Financial Times, Times, Independent, Guardian. We have accepted invitations to present our work at prestigious UK and US conferences including special sessions and keynotes at the Royal Economic Society and the ESCoE measurement conferences. 
 
Description Bank of England 
Organisation Bank of England
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Private 
PI Contribution In collaboration with the Bank of England we have recruited over 7000 firms to the Decision Maker Panel. - Since July 2016, we have been constructing a real time, monthly survey of business conditions. At the time of writing (November 2018) the survey has recruited 7,000 firms and has a response rate of 45%. - Demonstration of the level of economic uncertainty at the firm level which can be reported as an aggregate measure or at the industrial or regional level. - We can use firm level responses, matched to accounting data through FAME, top analyse the determinants of Brexit uncertainty, such as exporter status, importer status, employer of migrant labour, foreign owned. - Investigation of the impact of Brexit uncertainty on firm-level investment and employment growth, showing a reduction among firms that are more uncertain. These firms are the most productive firms. - The quantification of a misallocation effect, whereby more productive firms invest less and less productive firms invest more, shows a reduction of future productivity growth by about ½ percentage point. In context of very low productivity growth (around 1% per annum) since the great financial crisis this represents a reduction of half a year of productivity growth. - We are also able to observe the expectations, and forecast errors of firms v. actual outcomes and relative to professional forecasters. We can relate these to their characteristics e.g. size, sector, etc.
Collaborator Contribution In partnership with academics from Nottingham and Stanford Universities, the Bank of England has launched a new monthly survey of senior executives in British businesses - the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) - that will enable better measurement of the impact of uncertainty on business decisions. DMP members are polled regularly about their expectations for business conditions and the uncertainty around those expectations. Early results suggest that there is an important relationship between uncertainty and decisions on investment and employment
Impact It is possible to directly attribute the effects of the Decision Maker Panel evidence on monetary policy decisions because the evidence base and deliberations are documented in the Minutes of Monetary Policy Committee meetings and Inflation Reports. These are then explained verbally in 'on the record' statements in Speeches, Inflation Report Press Conferences and evidence to Parliamentary hearings (at the Treasury Select Committee). The Governor noted "that the Bank had been building on the 3,000-member Decision Maker Panel, which had helped in the assessment of the potential impact of Brexit" minutes of a meeting of Court, Bank of England, 11 April 2018 - The Bank of England assessment of the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration (28 Nov 2018) utilises information from the Decision Maker Panel to set the context of the effects of uncertainty from Brexit on the UK economy (since July 2016) in the Executive Summary (p. 4). It forecasts the likely effects of uncertainty on the UK after withdrawal (pp. 12, 18, 43-44, 47-52, 68, 74, 76-77). The report indicates how the DMP provides intelligence on Brexit preparations (p.19), and shows how DMP information on uncertainty was used to update the Bank's investment model.
Start Year 2016
 
Description Stanford University 
Organisation Stanford University
Country United States 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution Rapid recruitment of firms to our sample, the use of five bin subjective probability survey questions and follow up with participants has shared best practice.
Collaborator Contribution Links with universities of Chicago, Harvard, MIT, Bocconi, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Impact fiscal studies article mutiple working papers and seminar presentations presentations at international conferences media articles
Start Year 2016
 
Description 2ND EUROPEAN WORKSHOP ON POLITICAL MACROECONOMICS 2017 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description ADVFN, July 2019: UK in the Brexit Dumpster 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://uk.advfn.com/newspaper/advfnnews/51561/uk-in-the-brexit-dumpster
 
Description AccountancyAge, December 2018: Brexit Forecasts Helping of Hindering? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct quotation of DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.accountancyage.com/brexit-forecasts-helping-or-hindering-businesses/
 
Description Andy Haldane - Speech - July 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data and findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/andy-haldane-speech-regional-visit-to-yorkshire-and-humb...
 
Description BEIS Meeting 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Meeting with the chief economic adviser, Mike Keoghan, about the DMP project. Inclusive of 5 other members of Mike's team.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Bank of England - Quarterly Bulletin, 2017 Q2 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Quarterly bulletin from the Bank of England, Tracking the views of the British people, evidence from the DMP. p109-120
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Bank of England - Staff Working Paper, No 780 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Working paper released by the DMP team on the Bank of England website.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/brexit-and-uncertainty-insights...
 
Description Ben Broadbent - Speech - May 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data and findings: Over half of the respondents to the Bank's Decision Maker Panel, a survey of over 7,000 firms, now count Brexit as one of their three most important sources of risk
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/investment-and-uncertainty-the-value-o...
 
Description Birmingham University Seminar 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Bloomberg, February 2018: Wages to Migration: Some Takeaways From the BOE Inflation Report 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Report from the Bank of Englands Inflation report, with direct reference to the DMP project and data.
Subscription to Bloomberg required to read full report
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http:// www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-09/wages-to-migration-some-takeaways-from-the-boe-in...
 
Description Bloomberg, July 2019: Bank of England Agents Help Policy Makers See Through Brexit Economic Noise 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and findings, including stock piling caused by Brexit uncertainty
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-13/boe-agents-help-policy-makers-see-through-brexit-...
 
Description Brexit as a Misallocation Shock, Chicago, October 2018: 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://a852a7e8-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/pdmizen/welcome/%28Analytical%29_%28UV%29_...
 
Description Business Marker News, February 2019: Bank of England expects UK economy to grow by just 1.2% in 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Directly Quoted - The Bank's Agents and the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey found that "a growing number of companies are increasing stock building but delaying investment in fixed capital in response to increasing uncertainty."
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://marketbusinessnews.com/bank-of-england-expects-uk-economy-to-grow-by-just-1-2-in-2019/196267...
 
Description Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Businesses Are Getting More Pessimistic Over Brexit - Direct reference to DMP, Exit from the AU has lowered investment by 3-4 percentage points
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-28/u-k-business-pessimism-over-brexit-is-growing-boe...
 
Description Central Banking, February 2019: BoE paper outlines results of uncertainty experiment  
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct Quotation of DMP data and findings - The team of researchers presents findings from the Decision Maker Panel, a survey of businesses developed jointly by the BoE and the universities of Stanford and Nottingham. The survey was launched in August 2016, a few months after the UK voted to leave the European Union.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/economics/data/4043231/boe-paper-outlines-results-of-un...
 
Description City A.M, March 2018: Businesses set to boost investment and expect price inflation to slow 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy - August 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Keynote address to ESCoE Economic Measurement 2018 conference. You tube video available.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.escoe.ac.uk/escoe-conference-economic-measurement-2018/
 
Description EY ITEM Club, July 2018: Will the clouds clear for the economy? 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Direct quotation of DMP data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-ITEM-Club-Summer-forecast-2018/$FILE/EY-ITEM-Club-Summe...
 
Description Financial Post, August 2017: London losing status with financial firms as Brexit approaches 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact National newspaper - Article uses DMP data
http:// https://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/london-losing-status-with-financial-firms-as-brexit-approaches
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Financial Times, December 2017: Labour shortage fears could drive up pay 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article published in the times.
http:// https://www.ft.com/content/bbab2b02-e56f-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec - subscription required
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
 
Description Financial Times, February 2018: BoE surveys point to long-awaited pay rise for UK workers 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact FT subscription required to read full article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ft.com/content/e2742878-116c-11e8-940e-08320fc2a277
 
Description Financial Times, March 2018: Factories set to step up investment 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Subscription required to access link
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ft.com/content/89866f58-3270-11e8-ac48-10c6fdc22f03
 
Description Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Financial Times, September 2017: Business fears Brexit will hit sales, study finds
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.ft.com/content/6adf4c56-9eea-11e7-8cd4-932067fbf946
 
Description GLA Economics, July 2018: London's Economy Today 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP and it's work alongside the Bank of England Agents network.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/londons_economy_today_no191_260718.pdf
 
Description Gertjan Vlieghe - March 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact In a speech to members of the Confederation of British Industry in Birmingham, Gertjan Vlieghe explains that a tight labour market continues to increase domestic inflationary pressures. Along with strong global growth and diminishing downside risks to medium-term inflation, he argues that this outlook is consistent with one or two quarter point increases in Bank Rate per year over the forecast period. Direct reference to the DMP and Data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2018/gertjan-vlieghe-speech-at-birmingham-chamber-of-commerce
 
Description Gestion, January 2018: BoE: Incertidumbre por Brexit perjudica inversiones en Reino Unido 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Media (as a channel to the public)
Results and Impact French article - Uncertainty over Brexit harms investments in United Kingdom
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://gestion.pe/mundo/boe-incertidumbre-brexit-perjudica-inversiones-reino-unido-224318-noticia/
 
Description Ghent  - 10th Annual Conference on CB Business Surveys and Liaison Programs (CBBS) - August 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Government Economic Service, Conference day (HM Treasury) 
Form Of Engagement Activity A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Formal Government conference
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Havard Business Review article 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Written by Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, and Gregory Thwaites
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://hbr.org/2019/03/brexit-is-already-affecting-uk-businesses-heres-how
 
Description ICAEW, April 2018: Brexit's role in global growth trends 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Main focus of article - While the Brexit effect is undoubtedly having an impact on UK business investment, it's important to put the story in the context of global growth trends - Direct quote of Bank Of England Inflation report and use of DMP data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://economia.icaew.com/opinion/april-2018/brexits-role-in-global-gorwth-trends-oxford-economics
 
Description Ingenuity Network Breakfast briefing with CBI and 50 business leaders 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Invited Seminar (Madrid Spain) - PS 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This was an invited seminar at the Bank of Spain.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Jonathan Haskel Speech - March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP data and finding
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2019/will-uk-investment-bounce-back-speech-...
 
Description LexisNexis, December 2018: Weekly Highlights LexisNexis 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP data: BoE publishes survey on preparations for Brexit and results from Decision Maker Panel survey

The BoE published the results of a survey carried out by its agents, which looked at companies' preparations for Brexit, to support the BoE's analysis of the impact of EU withdrawal on the UK economy. In the same publication, the BoE also included the latest results from the Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey, which was set up to help the BoE to monitor recent developments in the UK economy and assess the implications of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.lexisnexis.co.uk/blog/financial-services/weekly-highlights-6-december-2018
 
Description London - EWEPA 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel - Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University; Philip Bunn, BoE; Scarlet Chen, Stanford University; Paul Mizen, ESCoE, University of Nottingham; Pawel Smietanka, BoE; Greg Thwaites, LSE Centre for Macroeconomics
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL http://www.ewepa.org/
 
Description MNI, March 2018: Downside Infla Risks Cloud BOE Rate Rise Message 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact With consumption growth easing and intense competition on the high street and online, the agents report highlighted the downward price pressures faced by the retail sector. At the same, the Bank's Decision Maker Panel survey found finance offices also expected price pressures to ease, but their view was on average that inflation would only slow to 2.5% over the year ahead.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-analysis-downside-infla-risks-cloud-boe-rate-rise-message
 
Description MTA, January 2018: Economic Data This Week 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The Manufacturing Technologies Association Economic Data for the week, featuring the Bank of England Agents Summary of Business Conditions, directly quoting the DMP
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.mta.org.uk/resources/economic-data-week-56
 
Description Market News International, September 2017: BOE CFO Survey: Brexit A Downside Risk But Firms Staying Put 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Report on result from the DMP project and the Bank of England agents network
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://www.marketnews.com/content/boe-cfo-survey-brexit-downside-risk-firms-staying-put
 
Description Market News, June 2018: MNI: BOE Agents: Headcount Seen Falling In Consumer Sector 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct use of DMP Data - Representatives were, on average, expecting a modest, but more negative, effect from Brexit. Extrapolating from the results the reports authors estimated that the expected negative impact of Brexit on sales had risen to 3% from just over 2%.

Brexit was cited as one of the three top sources of uncertainty by 37% of respondents and the authors estimated on a simple regression to have lower business investment by 3 to 4 percentage points in the year to mid-2017. The evidence is that the effect of Brexit on investment has not got any larger since then but nor has it unwound.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.marketnews.com/content/mni-boe-agents-headcount-seen-falling-consumer-sector
 
Description Michigan -  2019 Comparative Analysis of Enterprise Data (CAED) Conference 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Brexit as a Misallocation Shock
Nick Bloom (Stanford), Philip Bunn (Bank of England), Scarlet Chen (Stanford), Paul Mizen
(University of Nottingham), Pawel Smietanka (Bank of England), Gregory Thwaites (World Remit)
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://drive.google.com/file/d/1b349ster0XGdqEfx00PZP8wCDnMdQrVH/view
 
Description Munich - ifo Institutte workshop on expectations data and macrp 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact ,
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.ifo.de/
 
Description National Association for Business Economics 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Among the audience were representatives from Bloomberg, Haver, FRED who would all like to host our data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presentation at Banque de France, Banca d'Italia, Science Po conference, Paris: Why Did Firms Invest So Little and Hold So Much Cash Since the Great Financial Crisis? An Exploration of Economic Uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/paul_mizen_0.pdf
 
Description Presentation at Svriges Rijksbank conference, Stockholm 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Industry/Business
Results and Impact Presentation to Brexit Strategy Group, Nottingham University
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2016,2017
 
Description Presentation to Director of Economics and staff, HM Treasury - June 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description Presentation to Federal Reserve, Philadelphia conference  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Federal Reserve, San Francisco 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact /
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to IMF Research Department 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach Local
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation to Vice Chancellor Sir David Greenaway from the University of Nottingham
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity Pre-2006,2016
 
Description Public Lecture - Central Bank of Malta 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact This lecture will report on the findings of a major new Bank of England survey of UK firms - the Decision Maker Panel - to assess the impact of the June 2016 referendum. Evidence shows Brexit has created a persistent increase in uncertainty, which has already reduced UK business investment and productivity.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.centralbankmalta.org/en/event-details/62
 
Description Reddit, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article released to highlight the downturn in investment due to Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/7x7s5o/brexit_wiped_out_77bn_of_business_investment_say...
 
Description Resolution Foundation, March 2019: Spring forward or fall back? - March 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/spring-forward-or-fall-back-the-questions-facing-t...
 
Description Reuters, June 2018: UK consumer economy slows, manufacturing perks up in BoE, EU surveys 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct us of DMP Data - The BoE's Decision Maker Panel survey of more than 4,000 firms with at least 10 staff showed that just under 40 percent viewed Brexit as one of their top three sources of uncertainty - a figure that has changed little over the past year.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-boe/uk-consumer-economy-slows-manufacturing-perks-...
 
Description Rome Conference  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Presentation at conference on firm dynamics organised by the Banca d'Italia. Mix of academics and central bankers.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
 
Description SIEPR Economic Summit 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach National
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact What's Next for Brexit, Britain, and the EU? - Presented by Nick Bloom
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Seminar to European Investment Bank, Luxembourg 
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description Strathclyde University Presentation  
Form Of Engagement Activity A talk or presentation
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Presentation of DMP findings
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
 
Description The Daily Mail, June 2018: Two thirds of British businesses do not see Brexit as a major cause for concern to the economy 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Bank of England reference to uncertainty and Brexit, indirect use of DMP data.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2010,2018
URL https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5898909/Two-thirds-British-businesses-not-Brexit-major-caus...
 
Description The Economist, August 2019: The Chilling Economic Effects of Brexit Uncertainty are Intensifying 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct citation - After the referendum economists from the Bank of England, the University of Nottingham and Stanford University set up the "Decision-maker panel", a survey that regularly polls executives across the country's industries and regions. In a new paper the researchers examine the responses of 5,900 firms, representing 14% of private-sector jobs, to gauge the effect of Brexit uncertainty on business.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/08/15/the-chilling-economic-effects-of-brexit-u...
 
Description The Guardian, April 2018: For British bosses a bigger headache than Brexit is emerging 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Indirect use of DMP data, DMP data reflected through the Agents network finding of 2/5 of more than 3k firms that they surveyed had not spend any time at all on a weekly basis planning for Brexit
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/09/for-british-bosses-a-bigger-headache-than-brexit-is...
 
Description The Guardian, March 2018: Firms handing out inflation-beating pay rises, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Pres release directly stating DMP project
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/mar/28/markets-nervous-after-tech-shakeout-and-ahead-o...
 
Description The Independent, February 2018: Brexit 'dampening' UK productivity growth warns deputy Bank of England Governor Dave Ramsden 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article looking at the impact of Brexit, direct reference to the DMP and data
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-uk-productivity-growth-bank-of-england-dave-...
 
Description The Sunday Times, December 2017: Only an end to uncertainty will lift all our spirits 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Article relating to the uncertainty from the referendum and the Brexit deadline
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-only-an-end-to-uncertainty-will-lift-all-our-spirits-...
 
Description The Sunday Times, February 2018: Brexit wiped out £7.7bn of business investment, says Bank of England 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact .
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-wiped-out-7-7bn-of-business-investment-says-bank-of-englan...
 
Description The Times, December 2018: Be braced for more chaos, but give thanks to the Bank 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Direct link to DMP and Brexit Uncertainty
Subcription required to read full article
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/david-smith-be-braced-for-more-chaos-but-give-thanks-to-the-bank-...
 
Description The Times, June 2018: Brexit pessimism is growing, agents find 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Public/other audiences
Results and Impact Subscription required to access
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-reports-that-most-businesses-expect-brexit-to-hit...
 
Description UK and EU, November 2017: The cost of Brexit related uncertainty 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Article looking at the Economic cost of uncertainty on the run up to Brexit from the Results of the referendum.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-cost-of-brexit-related-uncertainty/
 
Description Venice - CINTIA Workshop - June 2019 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact Understanding Brexit-Related Uncertainties Exploration of the Decision Maker Panel Survey

SMIETANKA PAWEL
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019
URL https://cintia-italy.it/events/157-workshop-expectations-and-risks-affecting-households-and-firms-mi...
 
Description VoxEU 
Form Of Engagement Activity A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact New survey evidence on the impact of Brexit on UK firms
Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen 05 October 2017
UK economic performance has been poor since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, but has not been the catastrophe that many predicted. This column draws four results from the evidence gathered in the new Decision Maker Panel survey of around 2,500 businesses in the UK. While most firms expect a negative impact of Brexit on sales, investment and costs, only larger firms and those that are more exposed to international markets are likely to think that they might move part of their business abroad.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2017
URL http://voxeu.org/article/new-survey-evidence-impact-brexit-uk-firms
 
Description VoxEU, Nov 2018 
Form Of Engagement Activity A magazine, newsletter or online publication
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Policymakers/politicians
Results and Impact Direct reference to the DMP and Data - 4 charts utilised within report
Responses from the latest survey of around 3,000 businesses in the UK, using the Bank of England's Decision Maker Panel (Bank of England 2018),1 give us four key findings about the level and impact of Brexit uncertainty.
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2018
URL https://voxeu.org/article/rising-brexit-uncertainty-has-reduced-investment-and-employment
 
Description Workshop (New York, USA) 
Form Of Engagement Activity Participation in an activity, workshop or similar
Part Of Official Scheme? No
Geographic Reach International
Primary Audience Professional Practitioners
Results and Impact The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York organized an international workshop on November 21st and 22nd at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The aim of the workshop was to bring together scholars to present their current research involving expectations surveys. The workshop will take place once a year and will alternate between Frankfurt and New York. In addition to paper presentations, the program featured two plenary sessions by Olivier Coibion (University of Texas Austin) and Ulrike Malmendier (University of California - Berkeley).
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity 2019