Are only children all right? A cross-cohort analysis on the well-being of only children in the UK

One child families are becoming more common in many advanced societies, including the UK. 18% of U.K. women who were born around 1970 had only one child, in contrast to 13% who were born around 1945 (i.e. their mothers' generation). Previous research suggests that despite strong negative stereotypes of only children (which characterize them as spoiled, overprotected and lonely due to lack of siblings), on average, only children do as well as children with few siblings and better than children from large families. However, existing evidence largely comes from U.S. research conducted during or before the 1980s and it is unclear whether it applies to current or past patterns in the U.K. since the context in which only child families are formed and their characteristics may vary over time and space. Moreover, very little is known about the longer-term well-being of only children and whether growing up without siblings may affect their life chances and well-being in older ages.

To address these gaps in knowledge, I propose an innovative programme of research to study the effects of being an only child in childhood and adulthood in the UK. The project uses data from four UK longitudinal datasets: the 1946 National Survey of Health and Development (NSHD), the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS) and the Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) which follows a group of children born in 2000-2002. These are large surveys which follow the lives the cohort members from birth onwards. The project has four main objectives: 1) to analyse the socio-demographic characteristics of only children families and whether and how they have changed over time; 2) to compare the well-being (e.g. cognitive) of only children relative to the well-being of children growing up with siblings over time; 3) using data from the 1946, 1958 and 1970 cohort studies to analyse the social/demographic characteristics (e.g. education, fertility, partnership trajectories) and health of only children over the life course; 4) using data from the 1946 and 1958 cohort studies to analyse the well-being (e.g. health, social support, loneliness) of only children in older age.

The proposed project will be undertaken at the Institute for Social and Economics Research (ISER) at the University of Essex under the mentorship of the director of ISER Prof. Emily Grundy. ISER, a centre of excellence in the production and analysis of longitudinal studies, will provide excellent research support given its strong team of demographers, epidemiologists, statisticians and economists. An advisory board has been set up which includes representation from academic and non-academic members: the UK Ministry of Justice, the Children's Society, the National Children's Bureau and CLOSER (based at UCL). The advisory board will be involved throughout the process by providing input into the research and by promoting the dissemination and impact of the project's findings. The project will produce at least four academic papers which will be submitted to and published in leading demography/sociology/public health journals, presentation of the project's findings at eight academic conferences, and other dissemination activities such as producing press releases to be sent to high quality media and disseminating the project's findings through social media. This is the first comprehensive project on the well-being of only children in the U.K. and it has the potential to make a significant contribution not only to the scientific literature but also to society as its findings will be immediately relevant to third sector organizations working with children and adults, government departments designing policies to improve the lives of troubled children and of older people at risk of loneliness and only children families themselves. The project will also enable the principal investigator to transition to full independent investigator status.

Given the wide range of issues on which this programme of research touches - the well-being of only children in childhood and adulthood, the life course trajectories of only children and their loneliness in older ages, whether and how these associations vary over time and so on - this research project is likely to be of substantial interest to a range of policy makers, as well as third sector organisations, and only children families themselves. The potential beneficiaries include:

Government Departments: This research project will provide policy makers with evidence that will potentially inform policy making and future interventions to improve the well-being of children as well as older people in the UK. The UK Ministry of Justice has warmly welcomed the project's aim to investigate, amongst other things, the socio-emotional well-being of only children and their engagement into risky behaviours and experiences of victimizations. Rachel Dubourg, Chief Social Researcher and Head of Family Justice Research and Analysis, will be involved as non-academic partner throughout the project. The newly-setup Minister of Loneliness will also be highly interested as one of the project's aims will be that of exploring whether only children are at higher risk of loneliness at older ages. This evidence will provide the Minister with high quality evidence which will potentially inform future interventions to reduce the incidence of loneliness and its costs for society. The Minister was set up too close to the submission of this application for prior contact to be made, but I will certainly make contact in due course.

Public organizations: the project will also be of interest to a range of public organizations with which I will make contact throughout the project. For example, the evidence on school's performance, engagement into risky behaviours and experiences of victimization of only children will be of high interest and potential use to schools and teachers' organizations.

Charitable sector: Charities who work with children will benefit from this project as it will show if only children are at higher risk of poorer developmental outcomes, socio-emotional problems and to grow up in broken homes and if so, will help these organizations in their mission to support vulnerable children in the UK. To maximize the impact that the project will have on organizations which deal with children, Larissa People (a senior researcher from the Children's Society) and Gayle Munro (head of research and evidence at the National Children's Bureau) will be involved as non-academic partners throughout the project. Charities who work with older people will also benefit from this project as it will show how only children are doing at older ages and, in particular, if they are at risk of suffering from loneliness thus supporting them in their mission of identifying, reaching and supporting individuals who are at risk of this condition. I am already in discussion with a senior research manager of Age UK, who has expressed interest and willingness to be involved in the project.

General Public: strong stereotypes persist about only children. In particular, the general public perception is that, because only children grow up without siblings they suffer from loneliness, are maladjusted, selfish and unable to maintain long-term relationships (https://parenting.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/17/still-lonely-in-a-world-with-more-onlies/). The findings which will originate from this project will be of interest to the general public and will inform it on the extent to which these stereotypes are or are not supported by empirical evidence. They will also be of interest to only children families, the parents and the children themselves.

The potential impact this project can make on beneficiaries across these areas needs to be realized by an effective engagement and dissemination strategy, the details of which are discussed in the Pathways to Impact.