Opposition Coalitions and Democratisation in Africa: Challenges at the intersection of parties, ethnicity, funding and personality

Lead Research Organisation: University of Warwick
Department Name: Politics and International Studies

Abstract

My research focuses on opposition parties and elections in sub-Saharan Africa. Opposition parties are key actors in advancing democratic consolidation in emerging democracies, and my research outlines how and why they have been able to mount a challenge to incumbent governments in three African countries. My research is the first long-term, qualitative study of opposition coalitions across multiple countries, and it challenges many of the conclusions of existing research, making an original contribution to knowledge and pushing the boundaries of academic and practitioner understandings of opposition politics in Africa. My thesis provides a nuanced and empirically-grounded understanding of the shifts in mobilisation strategies of African opposition parties, and identifies the multiple, complex reasons for the limited success of pre-electoral coalition-building and thus the inability of the opposition to achieve electoral turnover and democratic consolidation. It helps to dispel popular misconceptions with regards to the weak and 'ethnic' nature of African opposition parties, and is useful and timely given the rising importance of party- and parliamentary strengthening projects that are currently being planned and rolled out across much of Africa by donor agencies (such as USAID and DFID) and international NGO's (such as the Westminster Foundation). My research into opposition coordination thus has broad relevance beyond academia, particularly in a context of global democratic rollback and recession (Diamond, 2015; Freedom House, 2019). As half a century of democratic gains are rolled back globally and the world registers the 13th consecutive year of declining freedom according to Freedom House, my research will contribute to knowledge and policy-making around the circumstances that enable democratic turnover - and thus it will help to advance democracy in Africa. During the ESRC Fellowship, I will engage in a programme of activities focusing on research consolidation, dissemination and impact which will be critical in developing my career as an academic in the UK Higher Education sector. Each element of the proposed programme is an opportunity to engage in learning, which is important for my professional development. The ESRC Fellowship will enable me to consolidate my doctoral research, develop the book manuscript, write two innovative journal articles and publicise my findings to audiences in both academic and policy-making circles - building on my existing experience of policy engagement. The Fellowship will also enable me to fill in gaps in my doctoral training and develop a new and innovative project on the relationship between party-states and the urban informal sector in Africa which will be submitted to the ESRC New Investigator Scheme or the UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship. I will close the research feedback loop by publishing at least three opinion or newspaper articles in the Conversation, the Mail & Guardian (South Africa) and The East African (Kenya) in order to ensure that my research reaches the communities affected most by it. This media engagement is a part of my broader commitment to closing the information gap between the countries in which the research is undertaken (often in the global south) and the places - often in the global north - where the research is most accessible. At the end of the ESRC Fellowship, I expect to have completed and submitted my book manuscript to the Cambridge University Press, submitted two potentially 4* journal articles to leading journals, begun to draw together a journal special issue on the African informal sector and submitted a proposal for an innovative new project on this theme. I will also have achieved impact by feeding my research back to the countries where the research was conducted through media engagement, and positively impacted on UK policy processes towards these countries through engagement with key policy actors such as the RAS and the WFD.

Publications

10 25 50

publication icon
Beardsworth N (2023) Autocratisation, electoral politics and the limits of incumbency in African democracies in Journal of Eastern African Studies

publication icon
Beardsworth N (2023) 'Tribal balancing': exclusionary elite coalitions and Zambia's 2021 elections in Journal of Eastern African Studies

 
Description This award was granted just before the COVID pandemic, and as a result many of the expected outcomes shifted. The planned research travel to Senegal and Ethiopia was less possible, as were things such as conference attendance. But the grant did enable me to apply for additional funding from the Warwick Institute of Advanced Studies, which helped to fund the Zambian Elections Research Network (ZERN).

The ZERN initiative which I ran in collaboration with SAIPAR, UCT, Warwick and others also had an important impact on policy. As part of ZERN, I ran an Economic and Political Elections Analysis for the FCDO with Professor Nic Cheeseman, Dr Marja Hinfelaar, and Dr O'Brien Kaaba. We submitted our report weeks before the August polls and predicted that the elections would lead to a turnover of power - something that the Democracy Donor Group in the country was not expecting. We gave a series of expert briefings around the elections, shifted diplomatic action into a higher gear and helped the FCDO and US State Department to prepare for the intervention of mediators between the president and his opponent, should the election prove to be contentious. When the election played out as we predicted, the ground was set for diplomatic pressure to be brought to bear from all sides on the incumbent to pressure him to step down. This helped enable Zambia's third peaceful transfer of power.

If I hadn't been awarded this ESRC grant which supported my research in Zambia, I would not have been able to apply for the IAS grant that enabled the collaboration, or travel to Zambia during this period or finally provide the expert analysis that helped shape Zambia's democratic trajectory.
Exploitation Route The research funded by this award is useful for academics and policy makers, and the chapters and articles published are assigned as required reading for new FCDO diplomats arriving in Lusaka, Zambia.
Sectors Education

Government

Democracy and Justice

Security and Diplomacy

 
Description The ZERN initiative which I ran in collaboration with SAIPAR, UCT, Warwick and others also had an important impact on policy. As part of ZERN, I ran an Economic and Political Elections Analysis for the FCDO with Professor Nic Cheeseman, Dr Marja Hinfelaar, and Dr O'Brien Kaaba. We submitted our report weeks before the August polls and predicted that the elections would lead to a turnover of power - something that the Democracy Donor Group in the country was not expecting. We gave a series of expert briefings around the elections, shifted diplomatic action into a higher gear and helped the FCDO and US State Department to prepare for the intervention of mediators between the president and his opponent, should the election prove to be contentious. When the election played out as we predicted, the ground was set for diplomatic pressure to be brought to bear from all sides on the incumbent to pressure him to step down. This helped enable Zambia's third peaceful transfer of power. If I hadn't been awarded this ESRC grant which supported my research in Zambia, I would not have been able to apply for the IAS grant that enabled the collaboration, or travel to Zambia during this period or finally provide the expert analysis that helped shape Zambia's democratic trajectory.
First Year Of Impact 2021
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy
Impact Types Policy & public services

 
Description Input into Donor Policy Formulation
Geographic Reach Africa 
Policy Influence Type Contribution to a national consultation/review
Impact My research - which was supported by this grant - has fed into public policy making in several ways. Since 2017, I have been the author of the Political Economy Analysis of Zambia for the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). This PSA assists the German government in its development of relevant policies and development agendas to advance in Zambia, over the course of the following year. Ahead of the 2021 Zambian elections, my policy input helped shape the German government's response to rising tensions between political parties in the country. I have also co-authored the Zambia country case study for the Bertelsman Transformation Index with Prof. Nic Cheeseman since 2018. The BTI is a key index that records changes in the democracy and governance of countries around the world, in order to improve public policymaking. My research into political parties in Zimbabwe led to my involvement in a study commissioned by USAID on political parties in Zimbabwe, to help them to improve their understanding of the internal dynamics of parties and define their strategy towards the country in the wake of the apparent collapse of global re-engagement efforts in early 2019. This study was instrumental in defining the US government's development strategy towards parties and governance in the country. Finally, I authored a Political Party Typology for the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA), who will use the typology to improve research on parties and in their party strengthening activities. The ZERN initiative which I ran in collaboration with SAIPAR, UCT, Warwick and others also had an important impact on policy. As part of ZERN, I ran an Economic and Political Elections Analysis for the FCDO with Professor Nic Cheeseman, Dr Marja Hinfelaar, and Dr O'Brien Kaaba. We submitted our report weeks before the August polls and predicted that the elections would lead to a turnover of power - something that the Democracy Donor Group in the country was not expecting. We gave a series of expert briefings around the elections, shifted diplomatic action into a higher gear and helped the FCDO and US State Department to prepare for the intervention of mediators between the president and his opponent, should the election prove to be contentious. When the election played out as we predicted, the ground was set for diplomatic pressure to be brought to bear from all sides on the incumbent to pressure him to step down. This helped enable Zambia's third peaceful transfer of power. If I hadn't been awarded this ESRC grant which supported my research in Zambia, I would not have been able to apply for the IAS grant that enabled the collaboration, or travel to Zambia during this period or finally provide the expert analysis that helped shape Zambia's democratic trajectory.
URL https://africanarguments.org/2021/09/how-election-observers-facilitated-zambias-smooth-change-of-pow...
 
Description Institute for Advanced Studies Global Challenges Research Fund Fellowship No. IAS/32022/19
Amount £8,065 (GBP)
Funding ID Institute for Advanced Studies Global Challenges Research Fund Fellowship No. IAS/32022/19 
Organisation University of Warwick 
Sector Academic/University
Country United Kingdom
Start 03/2020 
End 07/2021
 
Description Zambia Elections Research Network 
Organisation Southern African Institute for Policy and Research
Country Zambia 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution As part of my award from the IAS (Institute for Advanced Studies Global Challenges Research Fund Fellowship No. IAS/32022/19 (£ 8065; 2020 - 2021)), I collaborated with a colleague at UCT to convene a network of scholars working on the 2021 elections in Zambia. I have used this award to hold a workshop in Lusaka for 30 senior and junior scholars, and to conduct my own research on my next project - conceptualised during my ESRC award.
Collaborator Contribution The grant was held as a collaboration between myself, Prof. Jeremy Seekings (UCT), Dr Marja Hinfelaar (SAIPAR) and Prof. Gabrielle Lynch (Warwick). SAIPAR hosted the event, and managed the logistics. Jeremy and Gabrielle each contributed knowledge and networks to the success of the workshop. Additional Funding Secured: Survey Funding As part of this research, the ZERN network has been awarded funds (£5,000) by the British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) to conduct a survey in March 2021, approximately 5 months prior to the 2021 elections. The survey will be conducted in Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, the two urban provinces which to a great degree determine the outcome of an election, and the two provinces in which elections are most heavily contested. The survey would be conducted using a 'paper-based' survey instrument, interviewing approximately 800 citizens over the course of 15 research days. The survey data would be available for the use of all 25 ZERN network members, to help them bolster their research process and findings. The funding for a survey will be critical to the success of the ZERN initiative, as several participants have proposed conducting a survey but the necessary research funds to carry out such an initiative are not available to academic researchers in Zambia. The questions deployed in the survey are drawn from the research projects submitted by participants (see list below), and the survey instrument was refined in the first ZERN workshop from 3-4 December 2020. The survey will be conducted by Beverly Shicilenge and her team of experienced survey enumerators. ZERN Project Funding The British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) in January 2021 also committed to providing project funds in the form of competitively awarded small grants for the 17 Zambian researchers. This pot of £9,000 will provide small grants of between £500-£1,000 for the researchers - to help them cover the costs of research assistance, domestic travel and mobile airtime etc. These funds will be spent by the end of August 2021, after which the researchers will provide a narrative and financial report. Additional Funding Applied for: In November 2020, ZERN sent a proposal to the British High Commission in Lusaka for a grant of £50,700 to cover the cost of a nation-wide expansion of the planned survey which is to be funded by the BIEA. This grant would also include some additional funding to host the two remaining workshops in Lusaka, as well as to fund some research activities by Zambian scholars. Unfortunately, in December 2020, dramatic budget cuts were announced by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), which will likely undermine the success of our proposal - although the Lusaka High Commission has in recent correspondence let us know that the proposal is still under consideration.
Impact This collaboration involves collaborators from the disciplines of Sociology, History and Political Science. There are currently no concrete outcomes. The Zambia Elections Research Network is a multi-institution initiative to undertake systematic, collaborative and complementary research into aspects of the 2021 executive, parliamentary and local elections in Zambia. The research agenda is driven predominantly by the interests and concerns of Zambian scholars, and the network aims to support locally-conceptualised research in the country. Initiated by the Southern African Institute for Policy and Research (SAIPAR), the University of Cape Town (UCT) and the University of Warwick (UK), the network brings together experienced scholars of Zambia to undertake a programme of research on the polls. Some of this research will be collected and published in an edited volume which follows on from and extends the research contained in the volume on the 2016 elections entitled: Democracy and electoral politics in Zambia, (Leiden: Brill) edited by T. Banda, O. Kaaba, M. Hinfelaar and M. Ndulo. The initial phase of the research is funded by a small grant (£8,065) from the University of Warwick's Institute for Advanced Studies (IAS). The network's organisers aim was to leverage their networks and that of ZERN's senior scholars based outside the African continent to raise the funds necessary for the Zambian researchers to conduct their research. Unfortunately, research funding is not readily available in Zambia, thus the rationale for this network was to increase coordination in order to enable local scholars to produce high-quality, locally-driven research. This project will result in at least one edited volume (published in 2022), a series of newspaper and opinion articles as well as several journal articles (both single-author and co-authored). This network is crucial to ensure a coordinated research approach, minimise duplication of efforts and to try to enable researchers to access the necessary resources to conduct high-quality research. Another objective in establishing this network in advance of the elections is to facilitate the more systematic collection of data prior to and during candidate selection processes and election campaigns. We envisage both contributions that consider the country as a whole and case-studies of selected local areas. As with the 2016 edited volume, the book that results from this research will be published with a respected global publisher and be made available in Zambia. It will also be launched with both state institutions and members of the global community present. We anticipate that some chapters in the final volume might be written jointly by researchers drawing on their individual as well as collective research. This collaboration led to the publication of a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies in which I was a co-editor and co-authored two journal articles of the 8 published. https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjea20/16/4
Start Year 2020
 
Description Zambia Elections Research Network 
Organisation University of Cape Town
Country South Africa 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution As part of my award from the IAS (Institute for Advanced Studies Global Challenges Research Fund Fellowship No. IAS/32022/19 (£ 8065; 2020 - 2021)), I collaborated with a colleague at UCT to convene a network of scholars working on the 2021 elections in Zambia. I have used this award to hold a workshop in Lusaka for 30 senior and junior scholars, and to conduct my own research on my next project - conceptualised during my ESRC award.
Collaborator Contribution The grant was held as a collaboration between myself, Prof. Jeremy Seekings (UCT), Dr Marja Hinfelaar (SAIPAR) and Prof. Gabrielle Lynch (Warwick). SAIPAR hosted the event, and managed the logistics. Jeremy and Gabrielle each contributed knowledge and networks to the success of the workshop. Additional Funding Secured: Survey Funding As part of this research, the ZERN network has been awarded funds (£5,000) by the British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) to conduct a survey in March 2021, approximately 5 months prior to the 2021 elections. The survey will be conducted in Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, the two urban provinces which to a great degree determine the outcome of an election, and the two provinces in which elections are most heavily contested. The survey would be conducted using a 'paper-based' survey instrument, interviewing approximately 800 citizens over the course of 15 research days. The survey data would be available for the use of all 25 ZERN network members, to help them bolster their research process and findings. The funding for a survey will be critical to the success of the ZERN initiative, as several participants have proposed conducting a survey but the necessary research funds to carry out such an initiative are not available to academic researchers in Zambia. The questions deployed in the survey are drawn from the research projects submitted by participants (see list below), and the survey instrument was refined in the first ZERN workshop from 3-4 December 2020. The survey will be conducted by Beverly Shicilenge and her team of experienced survey enumerators. ZERN Project Funding The British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) in January 2021 also committed to providing project funds in the form of competitively awarded small grants for the 17 Zambian researchers. This pot of £9,000 will provide small grants of between £500-£1,000 for the researchers - to help them cover the costs of research assistance, domestic travel and mobile airtime etc. These funds will be spent by the end of August 2021, after which the researchers will provide a narrative and financial report. Additional Funding Applied for: In November 2020, ZERN sent a proposal to the British High Commission in Lusaka for a grant of £50,700 to cover the cost of a nation-wide expansion of the planned survey which is to be funded by the BIEA. This grant would also include some additional funding to host the two remaining workshops in Lusaka, as well as to fund some research activities by Zambian scholars. Unfortunately, in December 2020, dramatic budget cuts were announced by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), which will likely undermine the success of our proposal - although the Lusaka High Commission has in recent correspondence let us know that the proposal is still under consideration.
Impact This collaboration involves collaborators from the disciplines of Sociology, History and Political Science. There are currently no concrete outcomes. The Zambia Elections Research Network is a multi-institution initiative to undertake systematic, collaborative and complementary research into aspects of the 2021 executive, parliamentary and local elections in Zambia. The research agenda is driven predominantly by the interests and concerns of Zambian scholars, and the network aims to support locally-conceptualised research in the country. Initiated by the Southern African Institute for Policy and Research (SAIPAR), the University of Cape Town (UCT) and the University of Warwick (UK), the network brings together experienced scholars of Zambia to undertake a programme of research on the polls. Some of this research will be collected and published in an edited volume which follows on from and extends the research contained in the volume on the 2016 elections entitled: Democracy and electoral politics in Zambia, (Leiden: Brill) edited by T. Banda, O. Kaaba, M. Hinfelaar and M. Ndulo. The initial phase of the research is funded by a small grant (£8,065) from the University of Warwick's Institute for Advanced Studies (IAS). The network's organisers aim was to leverage their networks and that of ZERN's senior scholars based outside the African continent to raise the funds necessary for the Zambian researchers to conduct their research. Unfortunately, research funding is not readily available in Zambia, thus the rationale for this network was to increase coordination in order to enable local scholars to produce high-quality, locally-driven research. This project will result in at least one edited volume (published in 2022), a series of newspaper and opinion articles as well as several journal articles (both single-author and co-authored). This network is crucial to ensure a coordinated research approach, minimise duplication of efforts and to try to enable researchers to access the necessary resources to conduct high-quality research. Another objective in establishing this network in advance of the elections is to facilitate the more systematic collection of data prior to and during candidate selection processes and election campaigns. We envisage both contributions that consider the country as a whole and case-studies of selected local areas. As with the 2016 edited volume, the book that results from this research will be published with a respected global publisher and be made available in Zambia. It will also be launched with both state institutions and members of the global community present. We anticipate that some chapters in the final volume might be written jointly by researchers drawing on their individual as well as collective research. This collaboration led to the publication of a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies in which I was a co-editor and co-authored two journal articles of the 8 published. https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjea20/16/4
Start Year 2020
 
Description Zambia Elections Research Network 
Organisation University of Warwick
Country United Kingdom 
Sector Academic/University 
PI Contribution As part of my award from the IAS (Institute for Advanced Studies Global Challenges Research Fund Fellowship No. IAS/32022/19 (£ 8065; 2020 - 2021)), I collaborated with a colleague at UCT to convene a network of scholars working on the 2021 elections in Zambia. I have used this award to hold a workshop in Lusaka for 30 senior and junior scholars, and to conduct my own research on my next project - conceptualised during my ESRC award.
Collaborator Contribution The grant was held as a collaboration between myself, Prof. Jeremy Seekings (UCT), Dr Marja Hinfelaar (SAIPAR) and Prof. Gabrielle Lynch (Warwick). SAIPAR hosted the event, and managed the logistics. Jeremy and Gabrielle each contributed knowledge and networks to the success of the workshop. Additional Funding Secured: Survey Funding As part of this research, the ZERN network has been awarded funds (£5,000) by the British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) to conduct a survey in March 2021, approximately 5 months prior to the 2021 elections. The survey will be conducted in Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, the two urban provinces which to a great degree determine the outcome of an election, and the two provinces in which elections are most heavily contested. The survey would be conducted using a 'paper-based' survey instrument, interviewing approximately 800 citizens over the course of 15 research days. The survey data would be available for the use of all 25 ZERN network members, to help them bolster their research process and findings. The funding for a survey will be critical to the success of the ZERN initiative, as several participants have proposed conducting a survey but the necessary research funds to carry out such an initiative are not available to academic researchers in Zambia. The questions deployed in the survey are drawn from the research projects submitted by participants (see list below), and the survey instrument was refined in the first ZERN workshop from 3-4 December 2020. The survey will be conducted by Beverly Shicilenge and her team of experienced survey enumerators. ZERN Project Funding The British Institute in Eastern Africa (BIEA) in January 2021 also committed to providing project funds in the form of competitively awarded small grants for the 17 Zambian researchers. This pot of £9,000 will provide small grants of between £500-£1,000 for the researchers - to help them cover the costs of research assistance, domestic travel and mobile airtime etc. These funds will be spent by the end of August 2021, after which the researchers will provide a narrative and financial report. Additional Funding Applied for: In November 2020, ZERN sent a proposal to the British High Commission in Lusaka for a grant of £50,700 to cover the cost of a nation-wide expansion of the planned survey which is to be funded by the BIEA. This grant would also include some additional funding to host the two remaining workshops in Lusaka, as well as to fund some research activities by Zambian scholars. Unfortunately, in December 2020, dramatic budget cuts were announced by the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), which will likely undermine the success of our proposal - although the Lusaka High Commission has in recent correspondence let us know that the proposal is still under consideration.
Impact This collaboration involves collaborators from the disciplines of Sociology, History and Political Science. There are currently no concrete outcomes. The Zambia Elections Research Network is a multi-institution initiative to undertake systematic, collaborative and complementary research into aspects of the 2021 executive, parliamentary and local elections in Zambia. The research agenda is driven predominantly by the interests and concerns of Zambian scholars, and the network aims to support locally-conceptualised research in the country. Initiated by the Southern African Institute for Policy and Research (SAIPAR), the University of Cape Town (UCT) and the University of Warwick (UK), the network brings together experienced scholars of Zambia to undertake a programme of research on the polls. Some of this research will be collected and published in an edited volume which follows on from and extends the research contained in the volume on the 2016 elections entitled: Democracy and electoral politics in Zambia, (Leiden: Brill) edited by T. Banda, O. Kaaba, M. Hinfelaar and M. Ndulo. The initial phase of the research is funded by a small grant (£8,065) from the University of Warwick's Institute for Advanced Studies (IAS). The network's organisers aim was to leverage their networks and that of ZERN's senior scholars based outside the African continent to raise the funds necessary for the Zambian researchers to conduct their research. Unfortunately, research funding is not readily available in Zambia, thus the rationale for this network was to increase coordination in order to enable local scholars to produce high-quality, locally-driven research. This project will result in at least one edited volume (published in 2022), a series of newspaper and opinion articles as well as several journal articles (both single-author and co-authored). This network is crucial to ensure a coordinated research approach, minimise duplication of efforts and to try to enable researchers to access the necessary resources to conduct high-quality research. Another objective in establishing this network in advance of the elections is to facilitate the more systematic collection of data prior to and during candidate selection processes and election campaigns. We envisage both contributions that consider the country as a whole and case-studies of selected local areas. As with the 2016 edited volume, the book that results from this research will be published with a respected global publisher and be made available in Zambia. It will also be launched with both state institutions and members of the global community present. We anticipate that some chapters in the final volume might be written jointly by researchers drawing on their individual as well as collective research. This collaboration led to the publication of a special issue of the Journal of Eastern African Studies in which I was a co-editor and co-authored two journal articles of the 8 published. https://www.tandfonline.com/toc/rjea20/16/4
Start Year 2020