Using advanced data analytics to assess the spatial causal effects of policing policies and practices
Lead Research Organisation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Department Name: Methodology
Abstract
Brief outline of the research agenda
The theory of procedural justice is built on the idea that when people evaluate their interactions with the police, they are primarily focussed on whether or not the officer makes objective and neutral decisions and treats them in a fair and respectful manner. When people are treated in a procedurally just manner, they tend to find the authorities morally appropriate and give consent to their actions and demands even when they disagree with them. In turn, when people view legal authorities as proper and just, they feel a normatively grounded duty to comply with the law and cooperate with the police and criminal courts. The concept of legitimacy lies at the heart of democratic policing, in that in a democratic society police must seek and maintain public support by acting impartially, using coercion proportionately and persuading the citizenry that they are an institution that is entitled to be obeyed.
Yet, in the procedural justice literature, most of the empirical evidence gathered so far is observational in nature, and rely on the interpretation of statistical associations. In fact, there is a dearth of research systematically assessing the causal claims made by the theory. In a recent review of the literature, Nagin and Telep (2017: 18) voiced their concern: "What has not been established is whether these associations reflect a causal connection between procedurally just treatment and perceived legitimacy and compliance." However, without empirical research demonstrating robust causal relationships, it is difficult to devise successful policy initiatives.
Thus, my principal aim with this fellowship is to test and advance theoretical understanding of some core causal claims of the policing literature. Specifically, I will scrutinise neighbourhood-level and location-based police effects. There is a substantial heterogeneity in the citizens' experiences and views regarding police officers but it is yet unclear to what extent this can be attributed to varying policing strategies in different neighbourhoods. By using geo-coded administrative police data, and merging it with public attitudes surveys, my research can identify policing practices that work best in particular neighbourhoods, to provide tailored recommendations to police forces. To identify causal effects, I will use state-of-the-art causal inference techniques, multilevel matching and location-based regression discontinuity designs. In a nushell, the current proposal plans to address one crucial aspect of procedural justice policing: how the effects of policing initiatives vary across neighbourhoods with different characteristics?
The theory of procedural justice is built on the idea that when people evaluate their interactions with the police, they are primarily focussed on whether or not the officer makes objective and neutral decisions and treats them in a fair and respectful manner. When people are treated in a procedurally just manner, they tend to find the authorities morally appropriate and give consent to their actions and demands even when they disagree with them. In turn, when people view legal authorities as proper and just, they feel a normatively grounded duty to comply with the law and cooperate with the police and criminal courts. The concept of legitimacy lies at the heart of democratic policing, in that in a democratic society police must seek and maintain public support by acting impartially, using coercion proportionately and persuading the citizenry that they are an institution that is entitled to be obeyed.
Yet, in the procedural justice literature, most of the empirical evidence gathered so far is observational in nature, and rely on the interpretation of statistical associations. In fact, there is a dearth of research systematically assessing the causal claims made by the theory. In a recent review of the literature, Nagin and Telep (2017: 18) voiced their concern: "What has not been established is whether these associations reflect a causal connection between procedurally just treatment and perceived legitimacy and compliance." However, without empirical research demonstrating robust causal relationships, it is difficult to devise successful policy initiatives.
Thus, my principal aim with this fellowship is to test and advance theoretical understanding of some core causal claims of the policing literature. Specifically, I will scrutinise neighbourhood-level and location-based police effects. There is a substantial heterogeneity in the citizens' experiences and views regarding police officers but it is yet unclear to what extent this can be attributed to varying policing strategies in different neighbourhoods. By using geo-coded administrative police data, and merging it with public attitudes surveys, my research can identify policing practices that work best in particular neighbourhoods, to provide tailored recommendations to police forces. To identify causal effects, I will use state-of-the-art causal inference techniques, multilevel matching and location-based regression discontinuity designs. In a nushell, the current proposal plans to address one crucial aspect of procedural justice policing: how the effects of policing initiatives vary across neighbourhoods with different characteristics?
People |
ORCID iD |
| Krisztian Posch (Principal Investigator / Fellow) |
| Description | The analysis of the MOPAC Youth Survey indicated that encounters with the police that are perceived as procedurally unjust (the officer did show a lack of respect, was perceived to be unfair, etc.) have a positive impact on both subjective procedural justice of the police in general and perceptions of non-normative behaviours (finding them more acceptable). These non-normative behaviours, in turn, can encourage people engage in gang-related behaviour. These results were observational in nature, but were indicative of certain negative feedback loops and potential ways of preventing/circumventing them. As a continuation of the above project, I designed and carried out the 'Police in the classroom' evaluation, where we assessed whether police officers delivering materials to 13-15-year-olds can increase their trust in the police and help them learn new materials. Participating schools were assigned to one of three groups: a control group, where no lesson took place, or one of two treatment groups, where the lesson was either taught by a teacher or a police officer. Schools with similar school-level characteristics (e.g. the size of the school and percentage of students eligible for free school meal allowance in the school) were randomly assigned to trios (i.e. blocks), each one to one of the three experimental conditions. Students first filled out a baseline questionnaire (two months before the teaching had taken place), a second survey right after the class on drugs and the police (or in case of the control group, around two months after the initial survey), and a third survey around two months after the lesson took place (or after the previous survey for the control group). Using three different approaches to assess the impact of the intervention - (1) randomised controlled trial approach, (2) block-randomised trial approach, and (3) longitudinal approach - we found robust evidence that the police-led session significantly increased young people's trust in police fairness and their knowledge of what 'intent to supply' meant compared to both the control and teacher conditions (the results for police legitimacy and willingness to cooperate with the police were mixed). Moreover, these effects remained significant even ten weeks after the intervention took place. These findings suggest that, at minimum, the police-led intervention increased the pupils' trust in police fairness and helped them to learn some of the relevant material. Further analysis showed that the intervention had a very similar effect on average and was not augmented or mitigated by the personal characteristics, socioeconomic background, or previous police-related experiences of the participants. It is also worth noting that the perceptions of the procedural fairness of the lesson delivery were particularly positive in the police-led sessions both in the short and long run, likely providing evidence on why the intervention was so effective. Another project looked at the impact of the introduction of police body-worn video cameras (BWC) in London using the MOPAC Public Attitudes Survey. Preliminary results have indicated that the impact of BWCs was more pronounced during the festive period (December and January) and during late spring and summer (April-July). During these periods people are more likely to spend time in public and encounter police officers which could explain the findings. This analysis also showed that the impact of BWCs wass the strongest right after the introduction of the new technology with large statistically significant impact in the first two months. This impact, however, dissipated in the following months with no statistically significant effect after 6 months. This implies that the positive effects of BWCs might not be permanent. I am still waiting for the chance to access the full survey for the given time period which I hope to be able to get by the Autumn of 2022. |
| Exploitation Route | Both projects feed into the mission of MOPAC and can encourage them to (1) encourage change in officer behaviour and (2) adopt new ways of analysis of their projects. |
| Sectors | Government, Democracy and Justice,Security and Diplomacy,Other |
| Description | In the February of 2021, the 'Police in the Classroom' report was published. This report sought to answer the question: can police officers build relationships and trust with students in schools? Using a clustered-block-randomised design and a three-wave panel with 13-15-year-old students from 81 schools across England and Wales, with Jonathan Jackson, we tested the impact of officers getting involved in school education, where they meet young people in their space, and present sessions designed to engage and encourage discussion. This project tested one way to engineer positive contact between officers and young people. Police officers from several forces across the UK were trained to deliver a 'Drugs and the law' session in a Personal Social Health and Economic (PSHE) class at various schools. Officers encountered the students in the classroom on their 'own turf', reducing the power-differential between the police and the pupils. The lesson plan included three activities designed to encourage young people to consider the typical police deliberations on, and responses to, young people who appear to be using drugs. The activities were designed to start a discussion and explain how the police would treat young people who are suspected of using drugs; outline which laws and procedures the police would follow; encourage the pupils to consider the perspective of young people, the police, and the community; and give pupils a chance to ask questions and voice their concerns regarding police conduct. The emphasis of the lesson was on perspective taking, i.e. understanding the reasons for and procedures of the police. These activities were also designed with procedurally just principles in mind to help the officer communicate respect, transparency, and fairness and the respect of legal boundaries. Overall, our findings suggest that it is beneficial to have police officers (rather than teachers) give a lesson like 'Drugs and the law'. The intervention significantly improved attitudes towards the police both short term and long term and also helped students to learn new concepts. The effects of the intervention were similar regardless of the gender or ethnicity of the participant, the diversity in the area where the pupil lived at, or previous experiences with the police. Because the lesson plan sought to encourage perspective-taking and emphasise procedurally just policing, the fact that the teacher-led lessons were less successful in some respects may not be very surprising. Based on the above results, we recommended police officers going into schools as 'teachers' (i.e. not in an enforcement, surveillance or protective capacity). The focus here is on education and building confidence. Police officers engaging with schools in this way may help foster the type of positive experiences that generate a mutual sense of trust and legitimacy. Rather than young people largely having interactions with police officers out in the street, where the officers are acting in a regulatory capacity, they would therefore have more humanised interactions in their early teenage years that can help foster a sense of trust between police and young people. Since the conclusion of the project, several police forces have continued with hosting police officers in the classroom in a similar manner. This stream of research has inspired the College of Policing and other police forces to trial similar approaches throughout the UK. Currently, I am leading one of the work packages of the 'TASERD' (Taser Use and Its Association with Social, Ethnic and Racial Disparities in Policing) and using area-focussed and place-based methods to analyse racial disproportionality in Taser use across various police forces. This research project has been funded by the College of Policing. The final report is expected to be published in Septembr 2023. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Education,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail,Security and Diplomacy |
| Impact Types | Societal,Policy & public services |