UK-India Bilateral Trade in FinTech and FinTech-Enabled Services: Emerging trends and potential for growth
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Essex
Department Name: Essex Business School
Abstract
FinTech refers to a wide range of ways in which new technologies are being used to deliver financial services, often delivered by start-up firms rather than established financial services firms such as banks. This project aims to enable increases in the quantity and maximise the benefits of trade between India and the UK by identifying potential changes to FinTech-related regulation, policy and practice at a time of rapid growth in the sector. Trade between India and the UK has the potential to grow enormously, benefiting consumers, businesses and governments in both nations; given the thriving state of the domestic FinTech industries in both countries, but low levels of trade in in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services, enhancing trade in this area is a particularly promising avenue for strengthening bilateral trade in goods and services between the two countries.
We have four research aims, which are expressed in our research questions:
(1) What is the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services?
(2) What changes could be made to regulation, policy, practice and investment to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK?
(3) What are the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally?
(4) What is the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment?
The proposed project will adopt mixed-methods, including literature reviewing, documentary analysis, qualitative interviewing, and analysis of quantitative firm-level data to establish the barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services in order to identify potential changes to regulation, policy and practice that could increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK.
Our research objectives are:
(1) to conduct a systematic and comprehensive review of the scholarly and policy/practice literature in order to establish the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services;
(2) to analyse and assess regulatory, policy, practice and investment documents in order to identify what changes could be made to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK;
(3) to conduct key stakeholder interviews and surveying in order to establish the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally; and
(4) assemble and analyse a database of bilateral investments identifying the degree to which each has been facilitated by FinTech in order to establish the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment.
As well as producing scholarly outputs, our study will produce findings that will be of direct relevance to regulators, policy-makers and various practitioners in FinTech and adjacent sectors. We will disseminate these findings to the relevant audiences in order to provide them with additional tools to enhance trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services between India and the UK.
The UK project team is led by researchers from the Essex Business School and the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA), School of Economics; Centre for Global Finance, SOAS; Lancashire School of Business and Enterprise. The Indian team is led by RIS, New Delhi; IIDS, New Delhi; GIFT, Thiruvananthapuram. The project will be supported by an international advisory board.
We have four research aims, which are expressed in our research questions:
(1) What is the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services?
(2) What changes could be made to regulation, policy, practice and investment to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK?
(3) What are the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally?
(4) What is the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment?
The proposed project will adopt mixed-methods, including literature reviewing, documentary analysis, qualitative interviewing, and analysis of quantitative firm-level data to establish the barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services in order to identify potential changes to regulation, policy and practice that could increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK.
Our research objectives are:
(1) to conduct a systematic and comprehensive review of the scholarly and policy/practice literature in order to establish the current evidence on barriers to and enablers of trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services;
(2) to analyse and assess regulatory, policy, practice and investment documents in order to identify what changes could be made to increase the quantity and maximise the benefits of FinTech trade between India and the UK;
(3) to conduct key stakeholder interviews and surveying in order to establish the factors specific to FinTech start-ups that influence their ability and appetite to trade internationally; and
(4) assemble and analyse a database of bilateral investments identifying the degree to which each has been facilitated by FinTech in order to establish the role of FinTech in promoting cross-border investment.
As well as producing scholarly outputs, our study will produce findings that will be of direct relevance to regulators, policy-makers and various practitioners in FinTech and adjacent sectors. We will disseminate these findings to the relevant audiences in order to provide them with additional tools to enhance trade in FinTech and FinTech-enabled services between India and the UK.
The UK project team is led by researchers from the Essex Business School and the Centre for Computational Finance and Economic Agents (CCFEA), School of Economics; Centre for Global Finance, SOAS; Lancashire School of Business and Enterprise. The Indian team is led by RIS, New Delhi; IIDS, New Delhi; GIFT, Thiruvananthapuram. The project will be supported by an international advisory board.
Planned Impact
The planned outputs will strengthen the bilateral trade relations between India and the UK, particularly trade in services. The knowledge coming out of the project will help academics and businesses to maximise their potential markets and consumers which will benefit from the diversity of services than they otherwise would.
Since services often cannot be separated from traded goods and an integral part of inputs in the production of manufacturing products, our findings will have an enhanced impact as an enabler in the production of traded goods.
A distinct part of the project deals with conceptualising and estimating the effects of policies and regulation on both business attitudes and trade outcomes. The outcomes of this analysis will therefore be of particular interest to both policymakers and businesses. Policymakers such as central banks, financial regulators and finance ministries will benefit from the supply and demand barriers to trade in services between the two countries. Since we cover the issues of privacy and discrimination, we will ensure policymaker engagements through the forums such as CityUK, Confederation of Indian Industries, Niti Ayog etc through discussions and other joint events. The business community will benefit form a better understanding of the effects of policies and regulations on themselves and on aggregate trade.
We will adopt high levels of user engagement and maximise research impact, including top international publications, seminars and presentations. We will organise two conferences to present the project work, one in the UK and in India. In addition, we will contribute to the annual conferences of UNCTAD, American Economic Association, Indian Economic Association and Development Studies Association (UK).
We will publish working papers through IZA, Bonn and the Working Paper series of RIS, New Delhi and ISID, New Delhi. We will also produce articles for a variety of well-known user publications and media in the UK and in India.
The ease and greater convenience of FinTech pose questions on how to protect privacy. The findings of our study would be beneficial for data-driven online businesses and marketers.
Since services often cannot be separated from traded goods and an integral part of inputs in the production of manufacturing products, our findings will have an enhanced impact as an enabler in the production of traded goods.
A distinct part of the project deals with conceptualising and estimating the effects of policies and regulation on both business attitudes and trade outcomes. The outcomes of this analysis will therefore be of particular interest to both policymakers and businesses. Policymakers such as central banks, financial regulators and finance ministries will benefit from the supply and demand barriers to trade in services between the two countries. Since we cover the issues of privacy and discrimination, we will ensure policymaker engagements through the forums such as CityUK, Confederation of Indian Industries, Niti Ayog etc through discussions and other joint events. The business community will benefit form a better understanding of the effects of policies and regulations on themselves and on aggregate trade.
We will adopt high levels of user engagement and maximise research impact, including top international publications, seminars and presentations. We will organise two conferences to present the project work, one in the UK and in India. In addition, we will contribute to the annual conferences of UNCTAD, American Economic Association, Indian Economic Association and Development Studies Association (UK).
We will publish working papers through IZA, Bonn and the Working Paper series of RIS, New Delhi and ISID, New Delhi. We will also produce articles for a variety of well-known user publications and media in the UK and in India.
The ease and greater convenience of FinTech pose questions on how to protect privacy. The findings of our study would be beneficial for data-driven online businesses and marketers.
Organisations
Publications
Ahmad A
(2023)
Mobile money, ICT, financial inclusion and growth: How different is Africa?
in Economic Modelling
Arun T
(2023)
Handbook of Accounting, Accountability and Governance
Arun T
(2023)
Digital Lending in Fintech India - UK Comparison
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Arun T
(2022)
Handbook of Banking and Finance in Emerging Markets
Arun T
(2021)
Guest editorial
in Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies
Arun T
(2023)
Impact of Neo-Banks (Digital Banks) India -Uk Comparison
in SSRN Electronic Journal
Bai Y
(2024)
Corporate acquisitions and firm-level uncertainty: Domestic versus cross-border deals
in Journal of International Money and Finance
Bationo F
(2023)
Private capital flows and productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: does the capital allocation puzzle matter?
in Applied Economics
Giansante S
(2023)
Fair immunization and network topology of complex financial ecosystems
in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Kanga D
(2021)
The diffusion of fintech, financial inclusion and income per capita
in The European Journal of Finance
Description | (1) Regulatory sandboxes: Ignoring the differences in the tone of communications and reports between FCA and RBI, there are a few major differences between the Regulatory Sandboxes in India and the UK: 1. The sandboxes in the UK are currently open throughout the year. But even when it was cohort-based, the sandboxes were still available to a diverse set of themes and sectors. RS cohorts in India are conducted primarily theme/sector based. 2. There is a minimum capital requirement for participating in the sandbox in India. While it has been stated in the RBI's Enabling Framework for Regulatory Sandbox4 that this may be waived, it has also been stated that this would be considered an important and necessary condition when a large number of firms apply to participate in RS during a particular cohort. 3. FCA also mentions features like Signposting, Informal Steer, and Individual guidance being available to firms. RBI's Enabling Framework for Regulatory Sandbox doesn't mention any such tools being available for applicants. (2) Reappraising controversies in fintech literature and searching for the solution We are finalising our empirical research related to some of these issues. Disrupting and/or stabilising (Sangwan et al., 2019)'; Sandboxes vs innovation hubs/clusters (e.g. Buckley et al., 2020)' Impossibility triangle!? (Brummer & Yadav, 2017) Is it really impersonal? (Alaassar et al., 2020) Startups and funding - The issue of valuation (Moro-Visconti, 2021); Sources of funding (Brandl & Hornuf, 2020; Hornuf et al., 2021); Critical mass and regime switches (Kolokas et al., 2020; Social elements (3) We are also working on the trend and destinations of DFI in the fintech sector in both India and the UK. |
Exploitation Route | We will be producing a policy paper series soon. We plan to have two well-planned events this year. |
Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software) Education Financial Services and Management Consultancy Government Democracy and Justice |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com |
Description | We are working through the fintech firms and. acknowledge that the dissemination process is ongoing. 14 December 2023 - Jupiter Asset Management Inaugural Meeting on Essex AI and Digital Economy Labs hosted by Amadeo Alentorn (Head of Systematic Equities at Jupiter Asset Management) with Sheri Markose (University of Essex), Thankon Arun (University of Essex) and 20 other FinTech Industry participants. We presented views on establishing a fintech hub in the university using the research findings from the project. We plan to have follow-up meetings in the summer. |
First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
Sector | Financial Services, and Management Consultancy |
Impact Types | Economic Policy & public services |
Description | African Development Finance Workshop |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Scientific meeting (conference/symposium etc.) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other academic audiences (collaborators, peers etc.) |
Results and Impact | The workshop was organised by the Institute of Global Finance and Development (IGFD) at the Lancashire Business School of the University of Central Lancashire, in collaboration with the University of Stellenbosch Business School (USB) and Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA). It flows from an ongoing project by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) on Microfoundations of Access to Finance: Demand-side Perspectives in South Africa at the University of Central Lancashire. The workshop is funded by ESRC, the University of Stellenbosch and ERSA. The keynote speakers were: Prof Augustin Fosu, Deputy Director of UNU-WIDER in Helsinki, Finland, and Dr David Porteous, Managing Director of Bankable Frontier Associates LLC in Boston, USA. The attendees included Policy makers from South Africa Government departments and International agencies; academics, representatives from NGOs, Community organisations and general public. The event was a unique one in terms of sharing the evidences on demand side concerns on the access to finance, and following this there was a strong response for further collaboration at different levels. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2013 |
Description | BRICS Virtual Economic Conclave, organised by the Ministry of Finance (GOI) and the Reserve Bank of India with RIS. |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Professor Arun chaired the session on the digital economy, attended by Dr Alexandera Morozkina (Ministry of Finance, Russian Federation), Arvind Gupta (Head, Digital India Foundation) and Keyzom Ngodup Massally (UNDP, New York), among others. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/brics-virtual-economic-conclave-2022 |
Description | Central Bank Fiat Money and Competing Cryptocurrencies as Payment Media and Speculative Asset: At What Cost to the Real Economy ? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Cryptocurrencies (CCs) that are primarily held as speculative assets bring about disintermediation effects by sucking in household savings and leveraged funds to fuel price booms. These bubbles are underpinned by national fiat money and hence the diversion of funds from other investments and the loss of liquidity should be monitored carefully by central banks. We develop an agent based based model calibrated to data to quantify the drain on societal resources to finance the speculative booms followed by busts in CC prices. The CC transaction networks are found to have a characteristic topology in that 70% of the CC wallet addresses only have a single incoming flow of funds and no outgoing links to designate transaction payments. The latter are predicted to fall even further during the run up to a CC bubble as investors hoard the CCs and not spend them. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.centreforglobalfinance.org/cgf-events-list/2022/5/11/central-bank-fiat-money-and-competi... |
Description | DIALECTICS 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | Professor Arun delivered a talk on finance and development in which he covered fintech in the multidisciplinary seminar series organised as part of DIALECTICS 21 generated huge interest among postgraduate and undergraduate students. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/finance-and-development |
Description | Fintech for sustainable and inclusive development |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Professor Arun chaired a "fintech for sustainable and inclusive development" session, which generated enormous interest. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://aidigecon.com/ukieri-dst-conference |
Description | Frontiers webinar on narrow and general intelligence |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Professor Markose moderated a high-profile webinar on achieving artificial general intelligence. The event attracted considerable interest among the students and academic community globally. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/upcoming-frontiers-webinar-on-narrow-and-artificial-general-intelligence |
Description | IIC-RIS-Essex event on Banks, Finance and changing form of technology-new options with fintech - 23rd April, 2021 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | IIC-RIS and Essex organised this high-profile event on "Banks, Finance and Chaing form of technology: New options with Fintech". Professor Arun took part as a panellist and Dr Srinivas Yanamandra, Chief of compliance, new Development Bank, Shanghai. Dr T. Rabi Sankar, Deputy Governor, RBI, delivered the keynote speech. The event generated enormous interest among policymakers and practitioners. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/banks-finance-and-changing-form-of-technology-new-options-with-fintech |
Description | Keynote address in the conference on "Redefining the business and management paradigm using technological innovations in the society 5.0 era", organised by the Universities of Surabaya and Mataram in Indonesia (27th May, 2021) |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | Professor Arun made a keynote lecture on the 'role of digital finance in redefining the business and management paradigm' in the conference. There is an overwhelming interest in the lecture among students of multiple institutions and practitioners.. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/webinar-redefining-the-business-management-paradigm-using-technological-... |
Description | Presentation in the 20th Globelics conference |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Sheri Markose Presented a paper on "Mobile Money a Low-Cost Monetary Innovation: Strategic Complementarities and Network Effects with Switching Costs in Adoption Rates" |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://www.linkedin.com/posts/thankom-arun-94815b17_the-papers-from-esrc-icssr-project-were-activit... |
Description | Professor Sheri Markose joined with leading experts from the IMF and Bank of England to give a lecture at the College of Supervisors of the Reserve Bank of India Webinar covering Systemic Risk Monitoring and Macroprudential Policy |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Sheri urged the use of an R-number measure for financial contagion based on who-whom balance sheet data that can overcome 'volatility paradox' of the more popular market price-based systemic risk measures which underestimate risk during market price booms and fail to give early warning. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | http://www.acefinmod.com/macroprudential-policy-formulations-implementing-financial-stability-mandat... |
Description | Professor Victor Murinde gives a Keynote for Panel Discussion at Princeton University |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Victor Murinde, the PI of the project, provides a keynote and leads panel event, "Session 3: International Finance, debt sustainability and managing capital flows", at the 12th Annual JRCPPF Conference at Princeton University, in "Session 3: International Finance, debt sustainability and managing capital flows", at the 12th Annual JRCPPF Conference. The conference focused on "Catalyzing Macroeconomic Policy for Development in sub-Saharan Africa" and was held on 23-24 February at the Julis-Rabinowitz Centre for Public Policy and Finance at Princeton University. Drawing from his ongoing research funded by ESRC and FCDO on managing capital flows, Murinde shared three main insights. First, new evidence that credit market conditions in developed countries are transmitted to credit markets in developing countries via commodity price cycles rather than the traditional channels. Second, he argues that macroprudential policy can reduce the virility of credit market shocks if regulators in developing countries deploy specific tools for: dampening credit cycles; reducing foreign exposures; and preserving the safety of financial institutions. Third, he tabled new evidence that the effects of capital flows on productivity growth in Africa depend on the recipient sectors in a heterogenous way, hence SSA countries may wish to design policy incentives to prioritise some key sectors for foreign private capital inflows. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
URL | https://spia.princeton.edu/events/twelfth-annual-jrcppf-conference-catalyzing-macroeconomic-policy-d... |
Description | Research and Impact Seminar - the role of fintech in promoting cross boarder investments |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | "Rise of Fintech and Fintech-Enabled Services- Patterns, Models and Challenges", Seminar on this draft RIS Discussion Paper by Prof. Sachin Chaturvedi, Dr. Priyadarshi Dash, Ms. Siddhi Sharma and Ms. Sukhmani Kaur. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/establish-the-role-of-fintech-in-promoting-cross-border-investments |
Description | Research and Impact Seminar - Neobanking landscape in UK and India |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Professor Thankom Arun, gets together with twimbit's research director- Varnika Goel, to discuss the neobanking landscape in UK and India and how they can develop powerful synergies. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/impact-webinar-neobank-world |
Description | Research and Impact Seminar Series - Fintech Revolution: What's the status quo? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The Fintech Revolution: What's the status quo? Professor Victor Murinde |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/upcoming-webinar-the-fintech-revolution-whats-the-status-quo |
Description | Research and Impact seminar series - An overview of the fintech startup sector in the UK and India |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | An overview of the fintech startup sector in the UK and India Professor Thankom Arun and Dr. Reji Joseph |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/impact-webinar-the-fintech-start-up-way |
Description | Research and Impact seminar series - How 'open' is open banking? |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Industry/Business |
Results and Impact | The project developed an impact seminar series in the first year to engage with policymakers and users early in the project cycle to understand the critical issues in a dynamic fintech sector. How 'open' is open banking? - Hue Davies, Co-founder and COO Ozone API; Kevin O'Leary FINTECHNEXT project, UCC, Ireland and Vaibhav Garg, Head of Business Strategy, Open Financial Technologies |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://ukindiafintrade.com/how-open-is-open-banking |
Description | UKIERI/DST CONFERENCE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Professor Sheri Markose chaired a session on "foundational aspects of general intelligence and AI'. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://aidigecon.com/discussion-2 |
Description | UKIERI/DST CONFERENCE |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Professor Markose presented "self-reliance as the basis of economic intelligence and blockchain' which generated significant interest among the participants. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://aidigecon.com/self-reference-as-the-basis-of-genomic-intelligence-and-blockchain |
Description | Why Policy Fails ?: A Complexity Perspective on Novelty Production and Rule Breaking |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | Traditional Control Theory wherein optimal policy is one which minimizes white noise deviations from a quantitative target is the basis of policy design in Macroeconomics. This flawed framework assumes that the only thing that stands in the way of achieving policy objectives is random white noise rather than strategic responses of highly intelligent regulatees. This has been the subject of the Lucas Critique and Goodhart's Law. The Lucas Critique indicates that policy will be rendered ineffective or 'negated' by regulatees who can predict it. In response, Lucas recommended that policy makers need to produce 'surprises' in order for policy to be effective. The Lucas Critique per se refers to the impossibility of econometric models to identify the ensuing structure changing dynamics from the regulatee-regulator interactions. Likewise, Goodhart's Law indicates that a variable made the object of policy will become unstable thereafter as regulatees game the system in innovative ways. I will go further and say that as Game Theory and extant Decision Sciences, respectively, do not have the wherewithal for strategic innovation in a Nash equilibrium of a game and restricts actions within what is already known, there is a blind spot regarding complex behaviours which produce radical uncertainty in the form of an arms race in novelty and surprises. While policy failures are known to arise from A.O Hirschman style 'futility, perversity, jeopardy' arguments encompassing unintended consequences, perverse incentives and fallacy of composition, a more foundational approach is needed for why determinism and precommitment to fixed rules will be punished by adversarial regulatees with unbounded capacity to innovate. Following the famous game theorist, Ken Binmore, who brought in the spectre of Gödel in the form of the Gödel's Liar who will negate/falsify what is computable, I have developed a new class of games in which strategic coevolutionary arms race in novelty production is a Nash equilibrium of games with adversarial agents like Gödel's Liar. Where the latter cannot be kept in check, certain rule-based systems have to be abandoned and policymakers need to expend large resources in monitoring and horizon scanning and/or show preparedness to do running repairs and coevolve rules. Genomic intelligence from get-go evolved to 'think outside the box' rather than be restricted to prespecified actions. Examples given range from how policy failed directly from Gödel style Liar attacks on Currency Pegs used for inflation targeting and also the rampant financial innovation in the Great Financial Crises (GFC) where Haldane (2012) and Eichengreen et. al. conclude that it was a case of poorly designed regulation with perverse incentives that almost brought about the demise of Western economies. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | http://www.acefinmod.com/sheri-markose-invited-to-give-guest-lecture-at-the-australian-national-univ... |