The effect of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being in Great Britain

The fight against terrorism has long been a top priority for Western democracies, intensified by recent attacks in Paris, London, Berlin and Madrid. Yet, despite continued experience of terrorist violence, researchers and government still do not know the true cost of the violence. Existing studies of the 'costs' of terrorism are commissioned by governments to look at the financial losses suffered by cities in the aftermath, but research on the effects of terrorism on public attitudes and individual well-being is in its infancy. This is partly because, unlike the direct costs of terrorism (such as reduction in national output), the indirect ones (such as aversion to outgroups or increased fear and anxiety) are difficult to measure.

Against this background, the proposed project seeks to examine whether and how terrorism has shaped public sentiments and subjective well-being (SWB) in Great Britain over the period 1990-2018. As of yet, there are no studies that systemically analyse the consequences of terrorism across different outcomes, several terrorism incidents and for a long period of time. With its long history of battling terrorism within its borders -- with 431 attacks and 2043 victims recorded since 1990 -- Great Britain provides a laboratory for understanding and evaluating the indirect costs of terrorism over a long time horizon.

The proposed project also seeks to contribute to the literature by investigating the conditionality of the terrorism effects upon the context surrounding the attacks. While past studies highlight that the effects of political violence are complex and largely context-specific, there is surprisingly very little research on the contextual factors. We will take advantage of the heterogeneity of the terrorist attacks in Great Britain -- in terms of local attributes, timing, scale and type of perpetrators and victims -- to provide a comprehensive analysis of the conditions under which exposure to terrorism can trigger public responses and influence SWB. In addition, we will explore whether the amount of reporting and the presentation of frames by political elites and the media can amplify some of the effects or minimize others.

To answer our research questions, we will: (i) employ and analyse key ESRC-funded data on public attitudes and SWB from the British Household Panel Survey, Understanding Society, the British Election Study, and the European Social Survey, and other secondary data sources; (ii) leverage fine-grained information on all geo-coded attacks perpetrated in Great Britain by several types of actors since 1970; and, (iii) employ cutting-edge methods which are designed to identify causal effects, including a quasi-experimental approach that exploits exogenous variation in the variables of interest.

Our research aims to inform strategic thinking and enable more effective policy intervention. In particular, the results will be used by the Home Office to raise awareness about the indirect effects of terrorism and help the UK government develop appropriate strategies to minimize its costs. Our findings can also have tangible benefits for other stakeholders who are interested in mitigating the negative societal consequences of terrorism (e.g., the NATO and the International Institute for Strategic Studies). Finally, our findings can stimulate a wider public debate about alternative counter-terrorism policies and the language used by political leaders and the media when referring to terrorist events.

The proposed project will enable a more effective response to terrorism and support better policy planning and allocation of government resources. In particular, this project will contribute to the United Kingdom's Strategy for Countering Terrorism (CONTEST) 2018 to "reduce the risk to the UK [...] from terrorism, so that people can go about their lives freely and with confidence". To achieve this goal, we have included a non-academic partner, the Home Office's Counter-Terrorism Analysis & Insight (CTAI) unit, whose mission is to ensure that government policy on counter-terrorism is evidence-based and driven by insight. CTAI has been involved in the development of our research questions since the project inception, and our collaboration will span across the entire life-cycle of this project (see 'Pathways to Impact' for more details).

However, given the increased levels of terrorism in many other regions of the word and its broader social impact on a number of actors, there will be a wider range of additional beneficiaries including international organizations such as the NATO, think tanks such as the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and the media.

Terrorism poses a direct and immediate threat to all countries and all people, regardless of ethnic background, nationality and religion, and to international stability and prosperity more broadly. As such, it presents a challenge that the international community must tackle together. NATO's work on counter-terrorism focuses on improving awareness of the threat and developing capabilities to prepare. In a similar vein, the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) promote co-operative and co-ordinated approaches to counter terrorism at all levels and to ensure more efficient use of their resources in addressing this challenge. The proposed project will improve our understanding of how to develop adequate capabilities to manage the consequences of terrorist attacks. In pursuing our engagement with policy and practitioner groups, we will draw on our collective networks and utilize the PI's links with the NATO, the Italian and UK Ministries of Defence, as well as the links provided by our advisory board.

At the same time, a number of prominent think tanks have ongoing research programs on counter-terrorism, including the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Royal United Services Institute. The media also have an interest in understanding the implications of terrorism, since the way they cover and debate individual attacks can shape threat perceptions and emotional responses. Our findings can foster the debate among media professionals about the way they refer to terrorist incidents, and this can ultimately lead to a change in practices. To ensure dissemination of our work to these beneficiaries, think tanks and media organizations will be invited to attend the launch of the policy document in London at the end of the project. To maximize the participation of relevant media, we will use the facilities and platforms provided by the Warwick and Sheffield Press and Media Relations Offices.

Finally, our research will bring substantial benefit by facilitating future comparative analyses of public opinion surveys in Great Britain through the use of our program codes. As such, it will contribute to developing the capacity of social sciences communities, government and third sector researchers in producing policy and practitioner relevant outputs through increased exploitation of ESRC-funded data resources.