Home Office / ADR UK Feasibility Study Lead Academic
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Bristol
Department Name: Bristol Medical School
Abstract
Rates of serious violent crime in England and Wales have been increasing since 2014. Although these offences account for only around 1% of total crime, they cause disproportionate harm to individuals and society as a whole. Because of this, tackling serious violence is a UK Government and police priority. It is increasingly recognised that violence is preventable and that the most effective ways to prevent violent crime are not directly related to the policing or criminal justice systems. New strategies aimed at reducing violence seek to tackle upstream risk factors, thus preventing the development of offending behaviour among young people. However, there is currently little evidence regarding what types of intervention are effective. A total of £200 million has been granted to the Youth Endowment Fund (YEF) over the next 10 years to support early interventions; evaluation of these interventions is an integral part of the programme.
In order to generate high quality evidence, rigorous evaluation of interventions is crucial. There are two key issues that will impact on the quality of such evaluations. Firstly, there is a need for valid, reliable data sources - that measure outcomes prior to and after the intervention has been implemented. Ideally, the data would include both short-term and long-term outcomes. Secondly, it is important to have a well-matched comparison group. Without this, it is difficult to draw any clear conclusions about the effect of the intervention because any changes in rates of offending could arise as a result of other factors (i.e. may not be due to the intervention itself). With this in mind, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) are linking key national datasets, bringing together data from the criminal justice system, including police, prison, and court records, with data from the education system, such as school attainment, absence and exclusions. The linked dataset will contain around 15 years' of data on around 20 million individuals and will have the potential to form a resource to allow robust evaluation of YEF and other interventions.
This study has two main elements. In the first stage we will evaluate and document the quality and scope of the MoJ-DfE linked dataset. In the second stage we will investigate the feasibility of using the linked dataset to generate matched control groups for the purpose of evaluating interventions aimed at reducing offending rates in young people; we will compare two different statistical approaches to doing this.
Our findings will inform the future development and use of the dataset.
In order to generate high quality evidence, rigorous evaluation of interventions is crucial. There are two key issues that will impact on the quality of such evaluations. Firstly, there is a need for valid, reliable data sources - that measure outcomes prior to and after the intervention has been implemented. Ideally, the data would include both short-term and long-term outcomes. Secondly, it is important to have a well-matched comparison group. Without this, it is difficult to draw any clear conclusions about the effect of the intervention because any changes in rates of offending could arise as a result of other factors (i.e. may not be due to the intervention itself). With this in mind, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) and Department for Education (DfE) are linking key national datasets, bringing together data from the criminal justice system, including police, prison, and court records, with data from the education system, such as school attainment, absence and exclusions. The linked dataset will contain around 15 years' of data on around 20 million individuals and will have the potential to form a resource to allow robust evaluation of YEF and other interventions.
This study has two main elements. In the first stage we will evaluate and document the quality and scope of the MoJ-DfE linked dataset. In the second stage we will investigate the feasibility of using the linked dataset to generate matched control groups for the purpose of evaluating interventions aimed at reducing offending rates in young people; we will compare two different statistical approaches to doing this.
Our findings will inform the future development and use of the dataset.
Publications
Kent H
(2023)
School to prison pipelines: Associations between school exclusion, neurodisability and age of first conviction in male prisoners
in Forensic Science International: Mind and Law
Kent H
(2023)
Looked after children in prison as adults: life adversity and neurodisability.
in International journal of prisoner health
Description | There has been a recent increase in the rate of serious violent offending in England and Wales and a consequent increase in the funding of violence prevention initiatives. There is a lack of robust evidence on the effectiveness of such initiatives. The aim of our project was to assess whether linked data from the Department for Education and Ministry of Justice could be used to generate control groups to evaluate the impact of interventions aimed at reducing violent offending among young people. We found that these linked data could theoretically be used to effectively evaluate such interventions. We concluded that, in order for this methodology to be useful in practice, it would be necessary to find an efficient mechanism for using the dataset for evaluation purposes. |
Exploitation Route | An existing intervention could be evaluated using the dataset. |
Sectors | Education Government Democracy and Justice |
Description | As this was a methodological feasibility study, it would not be expected to have a direct economic or societal impact. Throughout this project, we worked closely with the Home Office's Crime Analysis Unit. Our work has influenced their views of the value of administrative data in carrying out evaluations. It has also highlighted to them the importance of carrying out sufficiently powered evaluations and our contact at the Home Office has been encouraging the Home Office policy teams and the Youth Endowment Fund to consider this when commissioning or carrying out such activity. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Sector | Government, Democracy and Justice |
Impact Types | Policy & public services |
Description | ADR UK Research Fellowship: MoJ-DfE Linked Data 2021 |
Amount | £104,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES./W002531/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2022 |
End | 12/2022 |
Description | Domestic abuse proceedings in family courts: overlap and pathways in private and public family justice |
Amount | £143,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2023 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | Examining the links between persistent absence and school exclusion and serious violence, homicide and near-miss homicide |
Amount | £17,750 (GBP) |
Organisation | Home Office |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2023 |
End | 08/2023 |
Description | Extension to the longitudinal Study of Early Education and Development (SEED) |
Amount | £1,010,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for Education |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 06/2021 |
End | 09/2024 |
Description | What is the effect of school absence and exclusion on self-reported and official sanction for violent behaviour? |
Amount | £93,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Youth Endowment Fund |
Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 02/2023 |
End | 03/2024 |
Description | Another Chance Evaluation |
Organisation | University of Hull |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | I am an expert advisor on using linked administrative data to evaluate a violence reduction intervention among young people. |
Collaborator Contribution | The partner is leading this evaluation activity |
Impact | No outputs or outcomes yet; evaluation is ongoing. |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | School to prison pipelines |
Organisation | University of Exeter |
Department | School of Psychology |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Academic/University |
PI Contribution | Between January and August 2022, I supervised a visiting PhD student from the University of Exeter (who was part of the Turing Enrichment Scheme). This has led to ongoing collaboration. |
Collaborator Contribution | The visiting PhD student carried out her PhD research, supervised by her supervisors from Exeter University and Bristol University. |
Impact | Publication: Looked after children in prison as adults: life adversity and neurodisability. International Journal of Prisoner Health |
Start Year | 2022 |
Description | Presentation |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Cabinet Office Policy that Works conference |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation to Cabinet Office Evaluation Task Force |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | The "Policy that Works" conference was a meeting open to all Civil Servants. The aim was to promote the use of high quality evidence in decision making. We presented our work during one of the sessions. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/policy-that-works-conference |
Description | Presentation to Youth Endowment Fund |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Supporters |
Results and Impact | Presentation to the Youth Endowment Fund to explain our research findings. They are interested in finding out whether interventions they fund could be evaluated using the methodology and data we used. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |