Welsh Election Study 2021

We propose to undertake a study of the Welsh Parliament election that will take place in May 2021.

It is already clear that this election will take place in a period of almost unprecedented social and economic turmoil. The Covid-19 pandemic is throwing government performance at devolved and state-wide levels into the sharpest relief, and the devolved elections will be the first major electoral test since the outbreak of the crisis.

Moreover, even if the political intrigue related to the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been somewhat eclipsed by the public health emergency, many of the key questions that have convulsed UK politics since in 2016 remain unresolved and continue to profoundly affect Welsh politics. Labour's almost unprecedented, century-long grip on the Welsh electorate - the party has been the largest in terms of votes and elected representatives at every general election since 1922 and at every devolved election - is apparently under threat as never before. Welsh Conservatives performed very strongly in the 2019 general elections and Plaid Cymru, a party that has traditionally done better in devolved elections, has under its new leader rallied as never before to the cause of independence.

By any measure, therefore, the 2021 Welsh Parliament election promises to be particularly significant. The data generated by the study will make a major contribution to helping scholars understand the main factors - including perhaps the response to Covid-19 and Brexit - that shaped the outcome. Public opinion data will be collected via detailed surveys of voter attitudes conducted before the start of the official campaign, during the campaign period, and immediately after the election, with respondents interviewed at all three stages to explore individual-level attitudes and intended/actual voting behaviours.

The 2021 election will also be notable because voters will be choosing representatives for democratic body that not only has a new name (with the National Assembly having become the Welsh Parliament), but also enjoys extensive new powers as a result of the partial devolution of income tax, and which is being elected on the basis of a new electoral franchise as a result of the extension of voting rights to 16 and 17 year olds. To facilitate detailed study of these recent changes, the survey will oversample this newly enfranchised age group and will include questions designed to explore the way in which tax devolution shapes the campaign.

The research team is a combination of continuity and significant change. PI Wyn Jones was/is Director of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2019 Welsh Election Surveys and has been played some role in every election/referendum survey in Wales since 1997. Poole and Wincott are also part of the 2019 team. But they will be joined by Surridge who, although new to the Welsh Election Survey, brings both extensive relevant experience and new perspectives to bare. Also included in the team as a research associate is Larner, a former Fulbright scholar and author of the only doctoral thesis in recent years to focus primarily on elections in Wales.

A novel feature of the proposal is the extensive cooperation planned with teams submitting parallel proposals for Scottish and Northern Ireland Election Studies (PIs Henderson and Garry, respectively). This cooperation will be deeper than has ever been attempted in the case of Scotland, and in the case of Northern Ireland will be a wholly new development. The cooperation envisaged encompasses not only fielding common questions, but also a joint programme of capacity building.