Tracking Public Attitudes and Preferences for Post-COVID-19 Labour Migration Policies

Lead Research Organisation: University of Oxford
Department Name: Sch of Anthropology & Museum Ethnography

Abstract

How are public attitudes towards foreign-born labour changing, and how can they inform policymaking which supports national recovery efforts across employment sectors and geographic regions? Public opinion research, which shows how major events sometimes contribute to shifts in attitudes, is key for understanding changes in the social and economic fabric of a country. Tracking attitudes' composition across groups and places, as well as dynamics over time, can contribute to more effective migration and labour market policies that reflect public understandings and preferences. This is especially true in the current crisis: COVID-19 has already motivated changes in political and media discussions about migrant workers, especially towards those in key occupations that are now considered fundamental to the country's response to the pandemic. Migrant workers comprise sizable shares of these occupations, and, crucially, many have jobs deemed 'low-skilled' that would not have qualified for work visas under current labour migration policies. Shifts in media and political narratives could reflect-or indeed cause-deeper shifts in public opinion towards migrant labour at all skill levels. However, we still do not know the magnitude of this change, whether it is homogeneous across different regions and sectors of the population, and whether it is short lived or the beginning of a longer-lasting shift. Addressing these questions as post-pandemic events unfold-and as the government has re-introduced its proposed Immigration Bill with modifications-will be crucial for understanding the transformation of the UK's society and economy due to COVID-19.
 
Description Our results show that 'essentialness' is an important factor in public preferences on migration, and may be more significant than skill level. This is an important result as it is in contrast to current policy focusing on skills. Our results across the three waves do not substantively vary, suggesting that immigration attitudes did not change dramatically in the face of COVID-19. This finding may actually be very significant in that it demonstrates how, even in a context where we might reasonably expect attitudes towards particular groups to change, immigration attitudes may be fairly durable. Not only does this accord with emerging empirical work on the relative stability of immigration public opinion, but also it presents potential implications for future policymaking that, to some degree, will rely on readings of public support.

We have also found that, on average, respondents hold a hierarchy of welfare and public services that immigrants should be able to access: primary healthcare is most supported, even upon immediate arrival, while support for Universal Credit is less popular-although an immigrants' length of time in the UK matters for levels of support - with support for access going up over time. This has policy significance with the increase in migrants on longer routes to settlement (for example, the 10 year route.) Regional variation also coincides with prior work on immigration attitudes that shows more favourable attitudes in London and Scotland, although the 'premium' (i.e., a more favourable rating) given to immigrants working in 'essential' occupations is lower in these regions. Further analysis, highlighted by our stakeholder group, will examine whether these level differences might be accounted by other factors known to be important for British immigration attitudes generally, e.g., age, EU referendum vote. Finally, we have found continued anti-Chinese sentiment, though overall nationality has not emerged as a highly significant factor.
Exploitation Route As highlighted above the findings have significant implications for UK based policy makers on migration policy including in relation to - labour market migration, access to welfare benefits for migrants, nationalities of migrants, length of route to settlement. We are working with policy stakeholders through ongoing knowledge exchange and impact work as outlined in the narrative section.
Sectors Agriculture, Food and Drink,Communities and Social Services/Policy,Digital/Communication/Information Technologies (including Software),Healthcare,Leisure Activities, including Sports, Recreation and Tourism,Government, Democracy and Justice,Retail
URL https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/public-attitudes-to-labour-migrants-in-the-pandemic-dynamics-during-2021/
 
Description Since the last submission, team members have used the main findings (and public-facing outputs, i.e., briefings) to inform ongoing debates about migration and migrants' experiences in the UK. These have happened at both national and regional levels. Including through the Inclusive Cities network of 12 UK cities. Co-I Fernández-Reino presented the analysis at an event convened by Migration Policy Scotland (16 September 2022) on 'EU Nationals in Scotland: Experiences, Needs, and Support', specifically as part of a panel examining the lives of EU nationals during COVID-19. (Video link here: https://youtu.be/2WYZpXb7FY0). This contextualised other policy-relevant research that specifically focused on Scotland.
Sector Government, Democracy and Justice
Impact Types Cultural,Policy & public services