Student to Degree Mismatch: The Role of Schools and the Impact Of Disruption From Covid-19
Lead Research Organisation:
UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON
Department Name: Learning and Leadership
Abstract
A level grades are crucial in determining how students match with university courses. Previous research by the team (Campbell et al, 2020) finds lower SES students are more likely to 'undermatch' - attending less selective courses than expected given their A level grades - and less
likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).
In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also
have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.
Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.
In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.
likely to overmatch (the reverse). This matters for social mobility since attending a higher-tariff course leads to higher future earnings (Belfield et al, 2018).
In 2020, A levels were cancelled due to COVID-19, and most students received Centre Assessed Grades (CAGs), predicted by teachers. Research (Murphy and Wyness, 2020; Anders et al., 2020), shows that high SES and private school students receive more generous predictions. They also
have better information, advice and guidance, a key driver of attending higher-tariff courses.
Meanwhile, universities were expanding places over fears of fewer overseas students attending, numbers caps were abandoned, and they were legally obliged to accept students they made offers to. This perfect storm could advantage high SES students, impacting the extent of mismatch, and the SES gap.
In this project we will: 1) examine the impact of exam cancellations on student to course mismatch, 2) examine the characteristics of mismatched students (by school type and SES) in 2020 versus 2019, 3) provide new evidence on the consequences of mismatch for degree outcomes, describing the potential impact on equity and mobility.
Organisations
| Description | This project has generated significant new knowledge in the area of student to degree mismatch, inequalities in mismatch, and the impact of covid-induced exam cancellations on match. We use methods previously developed by the PI and Co-I (see Campbell et al, 2022) to estimate student to course mismatch. We estimate mismatch along two dimensions - undermatch (higher achieving students at lower quality courses) and overmatch (lower achieving students at higher quality courses). As we are particularly interested in inequalities in mismatch, we estimate mismatch for pupils from different socio-economic (SES) groups, and for pupils from four different school types - independent schools, grammar schools, State (comprehensive) schools and further education (FE) colleges. We have four main findings: 1. The SES gaps in mismatch we observe in 2019 are similar to those that we found in our previous research for the cohort who entered university 10 years before, in 2008. This suggests that inequalities in mismatch have not substantially fallen over the past decade. 2. We find vast disparities in student to degree match according to the type of school attended by the student. In particular, pupils from independent schools attend higher ranked degrees than those from state, grammar and further education (FE) colleges at every decile of the attainment distribution. These gaps are substantially wider than those we observe among low and high SES pupils. This finding suggests independent school pupils have a marked advantage in accessing higher quality courses than their state school and FE counterparts with the same A level grades. Even after controlling for student characteristics, and prior attainment (e.g. Key Stage 2) these gaps remain. This is a brand new finding in the literature on mismatch, and has opened up an important new research question - what is driving the huge advantage that private schools have in obtaining places at high quality universities? We have discussed this with colleagues at the DfE and are pursuing new research in this area using UCAS data on applications. 3. There was little change in mismatch in 2020 - the year impacted by covid - versus 2019. And, importantly, the inequalities in mismatch by schooltype did not widen in 2020. This suggests that independent schools were not put at a particular advantage by the exam cancellations. This is likely because students had already applied to university and received offers (conditional on achievement) before the exams were cancelled, limiting the extent to which students could capitalise on the exam cancellations. 4. The biggest driver of the differences in match between private schools and state schools is applications behaviour. examining the applications profiles of students from private and state schools, we see that private school students are much more ambitious in where they apply to university - making mostly "reach" applications. Whereas students from state schools are much less ambitious, and more likely to apply to "safety" schools. it is this risk aversion that seems to be driving these disparities in match. This opens up a further important question - how might this have changed in 2021, when students were aware that exams were likely to be cancelled, and had more time to adjust their behaviour in anticipation of the exam cancellations (e.g. by applying to more selective institutions). We now have follow on funding from Nuffield to look at this question. Thus, as well as generating important new findings, this project has led to follow on funding from another funder. |
| Exploitation Route | Our finding that private school students have a significant advantage in accessing selective university courses, even when they have the same qualifications as state school students, suggests that more could be done to help state school students get into higher ranked courses. One recommendation is that better information advice and guidance should be given to state school students to help them make good decisions. This recommendation could be taken up by the Department for Education, who could improve guidelines on information, advice and guidance, or schools themselves through better careers guidance. Work by Dynarksi et al (2023) shows that removing uncertainty from the applications process can have a huge impact on students' likeliness to apply. There are a number of points of uncertainty in the applications process that could be tackled: i) removing the use of predicted grades in the applications process and moving to a post-qualifications applications system, ii) clarifying entry criteria, iii) better info on contextual admissions. We are in discussion with both the DfE and an education charity (Causeway Education) to this end. As the engagement activities show, we have now given a number of presentations within DfE and including with UCAS, to discuss these results - especially those showing that private school students are much more ambitious in their applications. We have also discussed the results in detail with Causeway, who are an education charity who work with disadvantaged schools. We have been using our methods in a small number of schools to help Causeway identify patterns of mismatch in their schools, and so give students better advice when applying to university. More funds are being sought for this project, and we plan to attempt to evaluate this work in the future. This project has also given rise to a new research avenue - where does the private school advantage come from - which we are exploring now using UCAS applications data. Finally, our work has relevance for researchers working in the field of student to degree mismatch, information frictions, and the private school advantage in HE. |
| Sectors | Education |
| Description | Although this project has only just finished (29th February 2024) we are starting to see some emerging findings from the work. In particular, we have been in conversation with an education charity - Causeway Education - to present the findings, and to investigate ways our research could be used in practice. Causeway work with disadvantaged schools and assist their students in the university application process. Our findings show that students from the state sector are more likely to undermatch than those from the private sector, thus, our findings have relevance to these disadvantaged state school students. We have been analysing Causeway data on students in a small number of schools, to look at their applications profiles. We have been able to inform the schools which types of students in their schools are more mismatched (e.g. low SES females). The schools have been using this information to help give their students better advice. We hope to be able to evaluate this intervention in the future, and funds are sought for this. We have also been talking regularly to colleagues at the DfE about our findings. |
| First Year Of Impact | 2023 |
| Sector | Education |
| Impact Types | Societal |
| Description | Causeway Education |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Description | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers - Causeway Education (2024) |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Impact | We have had anecdotal feedback from schools and pupils within schools that this work has improved their understanding of how to make a good university application and how to find a course that is well matched to their own ability. |
| Description | input into DfE policy document on mismatch and predicted grades |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Citation in other policy documents |
| Description | meeting with Causeway Education |
| Geographic Reach | Local/Municipal/Regional |
| Policy Influence Type | Influenced training of practitioners or researchers |
| Description | 'The Future of Higher Education and Science - A Turn of the Times?' |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presented key findings from the project at an international workshop on higher education participation in Hannover |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Advisory Group discussion |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I spoke with my Centre (the UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities) advisory board about the project. As we dont have any finding yet it was just an initial chat. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | Appeared on BBC News |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Media (as a channel to the public) |
| Results and Impact | I appeared on BBC News channel live to discuss grade inflation in teacher assessed GCSE grades |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | DfE Economists Away day |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented the work on private schools and mismatch at the DfE Assistant Economists awayday. Thus making them aware of the work, and increasing its potential for influence. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | DfE workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I presented results from the project to the department for education at a small workshop of DfE analysts and policymakers. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Discussion with collaborators |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I discussed this project with colleagues from LSE since we are collaborating on a similar project together. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | European Labour Economists Association |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presented work from the project at this prestigious academic conference |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://eale.nl/eale-2023-conference-prague-21-23-september-2023 |
| Description | HE access and funding conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented at the "HE access and funding conference", 14 May 2024 |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://ifs.org.uk/events/higher-education-access-and-funding-challenges-and-policy-options |
| Description | Higher Education in a Cold Climate |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | presented results from the project at a policy workshop at Bristol University |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Met with DfE and UCAS to discuss results on private school mismatch and predicted grades |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Met with DfE and UCAS to discuss results on private school mismatch and predicted grades, with potential to influence the university applications process |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Met with UCAS to discuss evaluating their new "mismatch" tool |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | Met with UCAS to discuss their new tool which aims to improve the match between students and their courses. This tool is based on our research on mismatch and the SES/private school gaps in match. we hope to be able to evaluate the effectiveness of the tool. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | ONS workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | presented results from the project at a workshop with analysts from the Office for National Statistics |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | Presented our work to the DfE Higher Education Analysis team at the HE secondee intro meeting |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented our work on private schools, mismatch and predicted grades to the DfE Higher Education Analysis team at the HE secondee intro meeting |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Presented research to IAB (Institute for Employment Research) Germany |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I presented related work on mismatch in higher education (in particular the impact of mismatch on future earnings) to economists at the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB). |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | attended meeting about widening participation in UCL |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | discussed widening participation at UCL. Talked about my research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | discussed PQA with colleagues at Bristol university |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Discussed UKs system of predicted grades with academics from Bristol working on a model of university admissions |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | international workshop on the economics of education |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | Presented results from the project at the International Workshop on the Applied Economics of Education |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| URL | https://iwaee.org/home/ |
| Description | meeting with DfE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | met with Donna Ward who is Director of Strategic policy at DfE to discuss the work on mismatch |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | meeting with DfE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | met with Tom Stephens from the DfE Delivery Unit to discuss my work on mismatch |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | met with DfE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Spoke with Ed James from DfE about my research into student to degree mismatch, predicted grades, and human capital versus signalling |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | met with DfE to discuss PQA |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Discussed predicted grades (arising from the cancellation of exams in 2020 and 2021) with DfE |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | met with DfE to discuss mismatch work |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I met with Richard Davies from the DfE to discuss my mismatch work, and this project. I agreed to do a presentation about my work to DfE and other colleagues at a civil service in a cross-department session on widening participation. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | met with OECD |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Met with Simon Roy, from the OECD Directorate for Education and Skills to talk about the project. Have been invited to present on the work to the OECD later in the month. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
| Description | met with ONS to discuss research on mismatch |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | Local |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Presented/discussed the details of mismatch, schools and covid project with ONS Analytical Hub, specifically looking at potential for cross-collaboration on shared datasets. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | met with public first to discuss research |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Third sector organisations |
| Results and Impact | met with public first to discuss my work on private schools and higher education mismatch |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | policy workshop |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I organised an end of award workshop "Inequalities in teacher assessment, prediction and mismatch" in order to share the key findings of the project with other academics, policymakers, and practitioners. This comprised a presentation by myself, on the findings of the work, followed by presentations from 7 other academics on related work (including co-I Lindsey Macmillan), and a policy panel, chaired by Professor Jo Blanden (co-i on the project) and featuring representatives from Ofqual, UCL WP, Public First, and the Sutton Trust. This took place in Westminster to attract civil servants, and we had a very high turnout of around 60 participants, including several from the DfE. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |
| URL | https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/workshop-on-inequalities-in-teacher-assessment-prediction-and-mismatc... |
| Description | presentation Oxford University Education Department - Quantitative Methods Hub |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
| Results and Impact | Oxford University Education Department - Quantitative Methods Hub presentation on student to degree mismatch |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
| Description | presented at IWAEE |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | International |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | I presented my work on mismatch and earnings at the International Workshop on the Applied Economics of Education. While i didnt present the findings of this project, i presented related research on mismatch in higher education. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.iwaee.org/home/ |
| Description | presented at Scottish Economic Society conference |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Other audiences |
| Results and Impact | presented research on mismatch and earnings at the Scottish Economic Society conference - this included some discussion of the current project. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| URL | https://www.scotecon.org/ |
| Description | presented my work on mismatch to DfE / cross dept group on widening participation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | I presented my work on mismatch in higher education to the DfE and a cross departmental workshop on widening participation in education. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
| Description | talked with Lord Willets about the research |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | Presented research on mismatch and private schools at a workshop with policymakers and academics. Talked personally to Lord David Willets (former universities minster) about the research. |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |