Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales in the Period 1977-2019 and a Comparison with Non-Lethal Violence Trends
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Warwick
Department Name: Sociology
Abstract
Homicide is undoubtedly the most serious form of violence, resulting in substantial and widespread social, financial, and economic harm. Not only does it result in the physical loss of life, but also in problems for surviving families and friends, the neighbourhoods and communities where the crime was committed, and broader society. The most serious form of violence, homicide, declined in England and Wales between the early 2000s and 2014, after which the homicide rate rose again. Much work remains to be done to the drivers of homicide trends; a significant challenge to societies globally, but especially so in England and Wales where research remains in its infancy.
This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:
(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);
(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);
(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;
(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and
(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.
In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.
Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.
To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.
The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.
This project aims to examine and to better understand the patterns in rising and falling homicide rates in England and Wales over a period of four decades (1977-2019). We will do this by directing special attention to the following individual and aggregate level characteristics, including:
(i) the demographic characteristics of victims/offenders involved in homicides (e.g. age, sex, and social background);
(ii) the circumstantial characteristics of homicide incidents (e.g. location, weapon use, alcohol use);
(iii) the (aggregate-level) characteristics relating to lifestyle patterns/routine activities;
(iv) the wider socio-economic conditions, cultural values; and
(v) the role played by public perceptions and social attitudes in responding to homicide trends.
In particular, we will (a) disaggregate and compare distinct homicide subtypes to scrutinize and better understand changes in homicide trends, using more comprehensive typologies based on offender-victim relationships and the motives/circumstances of the homicide; and (b) compare lethal violence trends with trends in non-lethal violence by dissecting violence subtypes to allow for a more accurate examination of changes in violent crimes, and to assess similarities and differences in patterns of lethal and non-lethal violence in England and Wales.
Investigating the role these factors play in facilitating trends in homicide over time is critical for advancing our theoretical and empirical knowledge in this area, enabling guided policy efforts to further help reduce homicide and to potentially help mitigate further spikes.
To achieve the project's aims, we will draw on highly reliable, robust, large-scale datasets, including the Homicide Index (HI, 1977-2019), the British Crime Survey/Crime Survey for England and Wales (BCS/CSEW, 1981-2019), and the British Social Attitudes Survey (BSA, 1983-2019). Data from the HI will allow for an extensive exploration of long-term patterns in homicide trends and will enable further refinement of disaggregating different subtypes of homicides; the two other sources will allow us to relate variables on lifestyle/routine activities at aggregate level, public perception/attitudes, and socioeconomic factors in a representative population sample. To analyse the data, multivariate trend analysis will be used to identify significant influencing factors driving changes in homicide trends. Lastly, one report will be produced, and four articles will be published in peer-reviewed international journals.
The project will be conducted by an interdisciplinary team of experienced researchers with (a) a background in criminology, sociology, social policy and economics, (b) an interest in homicide, violence and crime in general; and in processes of change, both at the individual level, and the societal level; (c) expertise in quantitative research methods, with particular experience in social statistics, and working with large-scale and sensitive datasets; and (d) a track record of undertaking a multitude of successful ESRC-projects using secondary data analyses to inform theory, practice, and policy. This will ensure that the project is performed successfully and efficiently with the highest quality standard.
Organisations
Title | Trends in Lethal Violence 1977-2022 |
Description | We have curated a new dataset that collapses several government and public data sources into one collection to facilitate a complex and longitudinal analysis of homicide trends in England and Wales 1977-2022, in a manner that has hitherto not been achieved. Specifically, we have data from the Homicide Index (capturing incidents of lethal violence); the Crime Survey for England and Wales (non-lethal violence); The British Social Attitudes Survey (public attitudes towards crime, justice and wrong-doers) and other national aggregate data (i.e. prison & probation statistics, police recorded crime, the Index of Multiple Deprivation, unemployment rates, population, benefits expenditure, Gini coefficient and voting patterns). The data are constructed to enable time-series analysis; age-period and cohort analysis and regression discontinuity analysis. The database will be made available at the end of the project, except for data within it that requires special access (for example, the Homicide Index data requires special access arrangements from the Home Office). |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2024 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | Work is on-going here. |
Description | Presentation at British Society of Criminology Midlands Regional Group |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Postgraduate students |
Results and Impact | This was a symposium on "Violence & Criminology" held by the midlands regional branch of the British Society of Criminology. It brought together around 30 post-graduate and academic staff who are working in the field of violence (specifically, homicide, sexual and domestic violence). It promoted discussions about the role of wider social forces pertaining homicide (specifically how public punitiveness may be a response to lethal violence) and highlighted the datasets we are curating - some aspects of which will be available for future public use. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |