A postcode lottery of SEND provision? Analysing and explaining variability in the education of children with SEND since the Children and Families Act
Lead Research Organisation:
Loughborough University
Department Name: Criminology, Sociology and Social Policy
Abstract
Despite education reforms, children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) in England continue to experience multiple disadvantages in education. They have higher rates of absence and risk of permanent and fixed school exclusions (Graham et al. 2019; DfE, 2016) and often perform worse than their peers in educational attainments from the early years to post-16 education (DfE, 2021). These inequalities are associated with negative outcomes later in life disproportionally affecting children with SEND including ill health, unemployment, and imprisonment (O'Brien, 2016).
The 2014 Children and Families Act (2014CFA) currently regulates the provision of education for children with SEND in England. Largely inspired by the vision of the Warnock Committee (Dept. for Education & Science, 1978), this policy presumes that most children with SEND should be educated in mainstream schools. The Act places new responsibilities on Local Authorities (LA) around the early identification of SEND, the co-production of policies with families, and the integration of services (2014CFA). Placing the responsibilities for enacting the legislation with LAs opens possibilities for divergent practice, experiences and outcomes at the LA level - a postcode lottery, as identified in policy reports (House of Commons, 2020) and our pilot study (Azpitarte and Holt, 2022).
This project will investigate recent trends and spatial disparities within and between LAs in school provision and educational outcomes of children with SEND. Geography is central to the evaluation of SEND policies as LAs in England have a central role in SEND provision including key statuary responsibilities throughout the SEND process. Evidence from Ofsted inspections suggests a postcode lottery with many LAs failing to meet the needs of children with SEND (Ofsted, 2021). The purpose of this research is to gain insights into extent, drivers, and implications of the postcode lottery for children's education.
There is a lack of systematic research about the spatial differences in SEND provision and outcomes. The project will address the evidence gap in three ways. First, it will map out spatial disparities in inclusion and school segregation within and between LAs of children with SEND looking at school arrangements at different stages of their education. Consistent with trends towards the marketisation of education, recent years have seen an increasing academisation of the school sector and a rise in the proportion of children with SEND attending special schools. As shown in Black et al. (2019), the academisation of schools in England has been far from uniform across space which may have important implications for education of children with SEND.
Secondly, the project will study spatial disparities in the educational attainments of children with SEND throughout their compulsory education. Despite the focus on outcomes in the 2014CFA, little is known yet about its consequences for children's outcomes. The project will fill that gap by investigating spatial variability in assessment participation, educational attainment, and school exclusion of children with SEND looking at variation at the pupil, school, and LA levels.
The project will improve our understanding of the drivers of the postcode lottery in SEND provision and outcomes by evaluating the influence of pupil, school, and LA level demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in explaining the variability between schools within LAs, and between LAs. The project will evaluate the extent of the postcode lottery by looking at how the effect of characteristics such as the primary needs of children and SEND support varies between schools and LAs. This will allow us to discern the extent to which variation at different levels can be explained by differences in characteristics pointing to the role of variation in LA SEND policies and practice in driving spatial variability in SEND provision and outcomes.
The 2014 Children and Families Act (2014CFA) currently regulates the provision of education for children with SEND in England. Largely inspired by the vision of the Warnock Committee (Dept. for Education & Science, 1978), this policy presumes that most children with SEND should be educated in mainstream schools. The Act places new responsibilities on Local Authorities (LA) around the early identification of SEND, the co-production of policies with families, and the integration of services (2014CFA). Placing the responsibilities for enacting the legislation with LAs opens possibilities for divergent practice, experiences and outcomes at the LA level - a postcode lottery, as identified in policy reports (House of Commons, 2020) and our pilot study (Azpitarte and Holt, 2022).
This project will investigate recent trends and spatial disparities within and between LAs in school provision and educational outcomes of children with SEND. Geography is central to the evaluation of SEND policies as LAs in England have a central role in SEND provision including key statuary responsibilities throughout the SEND process. Evidence from Ofsted inspections suggests a postcode lottery with many LAs failing to meet the needs of children with SEND (Ofsted, 2021). The purpose of this research is to gain insights into extent, drivers, and implications of the postcode lottery for children's education.
There is a lack of systematic research about the spatial differences in SEND provision and outcomes. The project will address the evidence gap in three ways. First, it will map out spatial disparities in inclusion and school segregation within and between LAs of children with SEND looking at school arrangements at different stages of their education. Consistent with trends towards the marketisation of education, recent years have seen an increasing academisation of the school sector and a rise in the proportion of children with SEND attending special schools. As shown in Black et al. (2019), the academisation of schools in England has been far from uniform across space which may have important implications for education of children with SEND.
Secondly, the project will study spatial disparities in the educational attainments of children with SEND throughout their compulsory education. Despite the focus on outcomes in the 2014CFA, little is known yet about its consequences for children's outcomes. The project will fill that gap by investigating spatial variability in assessment participation, educational attainment, and school exclusion of children with SEND looking at variation at the pupil, school, and LA levels.
The project will improve our understanding of the drivers of the postcode lottery in SEND provision and outcomes by evaluating the influence of pupil, school, and LA level demographic and socioeconomic characteristics in explaining the variability between schools within LAs, and between LAs. The project will evaluate the extent of the postcode lottery by looking at how the effect of characteristics such as the primary needs of children and SEND support varies between schools and LAs. This will allow us to discern the extent to which variation at different levels can be explained by differences in characteristics pointing to the role of variation in LA SEND policies and practice in driving spatial variability in SEND provision and outcomes.
Publications
Azpitarte F
(2023)
Failing children with Special Educational Needs and Disabilities in England: New evidence of poor outcomes and a postcode lottery at the Local Authority level at Key Stage 1
in British Educational Research Journal
| Description | The main aim of our project was to investigate time and spatial trends on the education and outcomes of children with special educational needs in England before and after the 2014 Children and Families Act, with particular attention to the evaluation of a 'postcode lottery' in SEND provision and outcomes. The new evidence produced in this project shows there is statistically significant geographic variation in some of the dimensions of the SEND system but not in all. Specifically, we find that: i) There is geographical variation across local authorities in the use of appeals to the SEND tribunal and the use of appeals is very uneven across local authorities indicating that families' or carers' satisfaction with the current SEND system and recourse to the justice system varies significantly across local authorities. ii) There is also significant spatial variation in the use of special schools by children with SEND leading to uneven geographies in school segregation and inclusive education. The use of special schools and hence segregation from mainstream schools is largely driven by the prevalence of Health, Education, and Care Plans at the local authority level and our results shows that use of special schools and school segregation has significantly increased across most local authorities since the 2014 reform. iii) In contrast with appeals and use of special schools, we did not find statistical evidence of a postcode lottery in the participation and academic outcomes of children with SEND in England. Our results show that there is no statically significant variation across local authorities in the participation and outcomes of the phonics test and KS1 assessments and attendance/absenteeism rates. Interestingly, our results suggest a large part of the spatial variation occurs between schools within local authorities which means that more attention should be given to policies and practices at the school level rather than at the local authority level. iv) our analysis by schools, clearly shows that children with SEND attending alternative provision centres are, on average, less likely to participate in curriculum activities and obtain worse academic outcomes than other children with SEND with similar characteristics attending other school settings. v) overall, our results shows that little progress has been made in improving the outcomes of children with SEND since the 2014 reform and large, significant gaps with other peers persists despite the focus of the reform in improving the outcomes of those children. |
| Exploitation Route | The findings will inform current debates around SEND and likely reforms of the SEND system. Note: The research project has been extended till the end of September 2025 as the data preparation and analysis parts of the project took longer than expected. The main goal of the extension will be to carry out more impact activities that were included in the research proposal to maximise the impact of the project. |
| Sectors | Communities and Social Services/Policy Education Government Democracy and Justice |
| Description | The evidence from our analyses has been submitted to the Solving the SEND crisis enquiry currently being led by the Education Committee. This evidence is currently under review and it is highly relevant to current policy debates around SEND and the need for new reform. Findings from the project have already informed the 'Who is losing learning?' campaign run by The Difference and aimed at promoting educational opportunities and preventing loss of learning among most vulnerable groups in the UK. The research has led to a range of research collaborations and partnerships with a range of academic and non-academic institutions including The Care Leavers Association, HM Prison and Probation Services, Manchester Metropolitan University, The Australian Murdoch Children's Research Centre. Those collaborations will build on the data, analyses, and findings from our project and would not have been possible without it. The project has been extended till September 2025 which will allow us to maximise impact and carry out more dissemination and impact activities including those that were included in the grant and which we have not been able to deliver yet. Those will include: i) Presentation to the Department for Education to discuss the findings and their implications for SEND policy and next steps of the research agenda. ii) Presentation at the Life Course forum held by the Murdoch Children's Research Centre in Australia. iii) Presentations at the European Conference on Education (ECE2025) in July 2025 (already accepted) and the British Education Research Association conference (abstract under review) iv)Presentations at the INICIO and EQUIDEI research centres in May 2025 v) Production of policy briefings targeted to non-academic stakeholders and audiences |
| First Year Of Impact | 2024 |
| Sector | Communities and Social Services/Policy,Education,Government, Democracy and Justice |
| Impact Types | Policy & public services |
| Description | Submission of written evidence to the Solving the SEND crisis inquiry |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
| Impact | Our findings provide valuable insights in the time and spatial trends in the education and outcomes of children with SEND since the 2014 Children and Families Act and the importance of schools rather than Local Authorities for accounting for those trends |
| Description | Cross-country comparisons of SEND in England and Australia |
| Organisation | Murdoch Children's Research Institute |
| Country | Australia |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Building on the analysis and findings from our ESRC project, this research partnership is aimed at comparing trends in SEND provision, education, and outcomes in Australia and England making the best possible use of existing secondary data sources |
| Collaborator Contribution | They are leading the analysis of Australian data |
| Impact | It is a multidisciplinary collaboration and it involves the members of the team of the Changing Children's Chances project (https://ccch.org.au/our-work/project/changing-childrens-chances/) which includes top international academics from a wide range of disciplines including psychology, epidemiology, social care, education, economics, and social policy |
| Start Year | 2024 |
| Description | Grant application to the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council |
| Organisation | Murdoch Children's Research Institute |
| Country | Australia |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | Contributed to the co-production of the research bid |
| Collaborator Contribution | They led the grant application |
| Impact | The research is currently under review and outcomes will be announced by the end of March |
| Start Year | 2024 |
| Description | Investigating the intersection of SEND and care among care experienced among children and young people |
| Organisation | HM Prison Service |
| Department | HM Prison Send |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Public |
| PI Contribution | Building on the ESRC funded project we have started a research collaboration and we are currently working on a research bid that will be submitted before the end of the project to the Nuffield Foundation |
| Collaborator Contribution | Co-production of research proposal |
| Impact | Grant application |
| Start Year | 2025 |
| Description | Investigating the intersection of SEND and care among care experienced among children and young people |
| Organisation | The Care Leavers' Association |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Charity/Non Profit |
| PI Contribution | Building on the ESRC funded project we have started a research collaboration and we are currently working on a research bid that will be submitted before the end of the project to the Nuffield Foundation |
| Collaborator Contribution | Co-production of research proposal |
| Impact | Grant application |
| Start Year | 2025 |
| Description | Using Data First linked data to investigate the intersection of SEND, social care, and crime among care experienced children and young people |
| Organisation | Manchester Metropolitan University |
| Department | Manchester Centre for Youth Studies (MCYS) |
| Country | United Kingdom |
| Sector | Academic/University |
| PI Contribution | The project is building on our analysis of DfE data and we are actively contributing to a research bid that will use Data First data from the MoJ and which will be an extension of our current project |
| Collaborator Contribution | Dr Katie Hunter from MMU is co-producing a research bid and contributing her expertise in the preparation and analysis of Data First data |
| Impact | Co-production of research bid to be submitted by April 1st 2025 |
| Start Year | 2025 |
| Description | Meeting with The Difference organisation |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
| Results and Impact | Meeting with representatives of the The Difference (https://the-difference.com/) to discuss the findings of our project and the implications for current debates around SEND and the need for reform. Our research is highly relevant to their 'Who is loosing learning?' research and advocacy agenda and we are currently discussing the possibility of writing a joint policy brief later in the year |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2025 |
| Description | Presentation to the Department for Education |
| Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
| Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
| Geographic Reach | National |
| Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
| Results and Impact | The Department for Education endorsed our project and sits in our special advisory group and we presented the data and empirical strategy for our project. Another presentation is scheduled on May 2025 to discuss the key findings and next steps in our research agenda |
| Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2024 |